The Rise of Skywalker Star Wars IX Box Office Thread

[SomeOldGuy]

We’ve heard this pattern of Star Wars trilogies opening with the biggest film and finishing with the second biggest film. Something has gone wrong somewhere. After a spinoff made a billion (shortly after TFA’s crazy numbers), Star Wars felt as strong as ever. Since then TLJ tailed off disappointingly, Solo was a bit of a disaster, and now TROS is coming in with numbers I didn’t think were possible even with a bad reception.

I think we’ve just seen that the movies are what they are. Toss out Solo. As a non-holiday release it’s hard to compare its performance to the other Disney films. That leaves us with four holiday films, all of which are officially or effectively saga films: 7, 8, 9 and 3.5. One of these, TFA, was an outlier, its giant box office propelled by one-time factors that couldn’t be repeated by the other movies. The other three have all made (or will make it RoS’ case) in the low billions WW range. It’s just what they are.

Just my $0.02. As always, YMMV.

 

[BaelaTargaryen]

 

[superion]

TROS made over $70 million this weekend but according to the numbers it did have a Friday to Saturday dip. I can't remember the last time I saw that for a film aside from the opening weekend where attendance is front loaded. But several other films in the top 10 also had a dip. I guess the holidays affected the normal attendance patterns. Jumanji 2 did increase its attendance on Saturday from Friday.

 

[writer0327]

TROS made over $70 million this weekend but according to the numbers it did have a Friday to Saturday dip. I can't remember the last time I saw that for a film aside from the opening weekend where attendance is front loaded. But several other films in the top 10 also had a dip. I guess the holidays affected the normal attendance patterns. Jumanji 2 did increase its attendance on Saturday from Friday.

I know the weather was crazy across the country. Maybe that had something to do with it?

 

[dataSlave]

Forbes is spinning as well. Come Monday if the numbers are as bad as the projections (non-media) are intimating the spinning from most will stop. It was bad enough when the trackers on BOT were expecting $75-80 million for the second weekend (that was considered "fine" but still disappointing) but now with the possibility it actually comes in under $70 million (which I still think seems a bit pessimistic but who knows) this is a (put it in perspective) disaster. You couldnt ask for a better set up for the film to make money. It should have been able to to caost to decent weekends even with normal WOM. There should never be any legit argument or projection that it A) goes under $500 million DOM and B) has trouble reaching a Billion WW. Yet here we are...

The lower opening you can blame on TLJ, the mediocre legs (and Cinemascore) are all on this film and the Di$ney Plan as a whole.

We will really know how bad it is after the New Year when we see how many theaters it loses.

On the surface it doesn't look that bad. Tracking slightly behind TLJ at this point. $361.8 mil for TRoS projected through WE #2 vs $368.2 mil comp for TLJ. 60% W2W drop from opening WE for TRoS vs 70% from TLJ.

The problem as you point out is that TRoS is lagging at all after starting with a much more favorable setup than TLJ. This is particularly true in respect to the calendar. Day 10 for TRoS leaves us with only 3 more days of the Xmas to NY holiday week. Day 10 for TLJ fell on Xmas Eve, which left 8 vacation days to pump up the box office.

How important is that? Well TLJ showed + numbers W2W for the weekdays of week 3 (days 11-14) and only a 29% drop for WE #3 (days 15-17). TRoS has already enjoyed most of the calendar bounty that was still ahead for TLJ at this point. WE #3 for TRoS will fall on 1/3-1/5 - very likely adding the sharp holiday to non-holiday comp to normal drop expected for week 3. For example, TLJ dropped 55% from the NY weekend to the following WE (1/5-1/7). A similar calendar-driven drop for TRoS puts it on track for approx $32 mil for WE #3 (vs $52.5 mil for TLJ, $68.8 mil for the 4 day WE including NYD).

 

[blackdragon6]

Tbh I wish there was more episodes like s1e8 of The Mandalorian that push the story forward for season 1 (considering the low episode count). If they had, maybe I would have *loved* the show instead of just merely *liking* it.

EDIT: Somebody mentioned The Mandalorian earlier in the thread and I forgot to quite them

 

[dataSlave]

TROS made over $70 million this weekend but according to the numbers it did have a Friday to Saturday dip. I can't remember the last time I saw that for a film aside from the opening weekend where attendance is front loaded. But several other films in the top 10 also had a dip. I guess the holidays affected the normal attendance patterns. Jumanji 2 did increase its attendance on Saturday from Friday.

IMHO the Friday to Saturday drop is a relatively small concern. The big worry for Disney should be that the numbers for every day of WE #2 were lower than the mid-week numbers for 3 of the 4 days that preceded it.

WE #2 averaged $24.0 mil per day. The preceding 4 weekdays averaged $28.0 mil. Friday put up $26.2 mil Dom. The biggest day of WE2 was lower than the midweek average. The 15% Thursday ($30.6 mil) to Friday ($26.2 mil) is quite the anomaly. The closest thing I could find was a 2% Thu-Fri drop going into WE3 for TLJ.

 

[8ulk87]

Man...if those weekend numbers are right it can only mean that the core star wars base have given up on this franchise.

Really hope disney brings on Jon Favreau as the new creative head of SW.

You can not serve 2 masters and when the MCU is around who has time for SW especially when its a mess.

Disney should stick to the Mandalorian and make 5 more good seasons.
Stop making SW movies you suck at it.

 

[The Caped Knight]

 

[dhandler01]

TROS made over $70 million this weekend but according to the numbers it did have a Friday to Saturday dip. I can't remember the last time I saw that for a film aside from the opening weekend where attendance is front loaded. But several other films in the top 10 also had a dip. I guess the holidays affected the normal attendance patterns. Jumanji 2 did increase its attendance on Saturday from Friday.

The problem is, most of the films have already been seen by their audience. With so many days off for the holidays there is no rush to go on the weekend. If you are off Tuesday you can go to a Tuesday afternoon show and avoid the mess. Hell if you have kids you can go to a matinee and not annoy half the people there and get out cheaper. The flat box office is a bit weird, but honestly not that surprising with a mid week holiday. (if I am reading right) The fact that Jumanji increased is a pretty cool thing and shows it has staying power. (again)

Ultimately that is what is killing this film though. Most of the people who have any desire to see the film already have. That is nothing new, if you watch most franchise films they are frontloaded for a reason. The ones that dominate the BO though get people either from outside the fan base to show up (Star Wars hasnt done that really since TFA and the factors behind that were discussed) or they get people to go 2,3,4,5 times boosting the totals. That used to be Star Wars to a T. It isnt any more. Without that, you see it is just another blockbuster and it isnt aging well. The audience is old and male and that isnt going to sustain. Compare it to the superhero films that are coming out on a bi-weekly basis these days and it is laughable. They get kids and women at a much higher rate, which leads to longevity and repeated viewings. Ya know why people on BOT think AQ2 would beat whatever Di$ney Wars film comes out in 2022 both DOM and international? Because women lapped that film up. (half the audience was women) Add in China and and there ya go...

Even Di$ney's released number now is pretty bad with a 59% drop. That isnt good on an normal week but a holiday? For what Di$ney was playing off as the "End of the Skywalker Saga" (trying to make this Endgame) that is mediocre AT BEST.

I love Star Wars, have since I was 3 years old. (I am 39) I should not be the demographic that dominates the audience of the film. As long as I am Star Wars will be nothing but a nostalgia franchise that never really goes anywhere. And the last 3 films are showing even in the markets where it is still beloved (like the US) it is seeing diminishing returns. People are having no issues walking away...

edit: Good god what the heck kind of crack is Deadline smoking? I mean I get Di$ney spinning this the way they are but Deadline is destroying what little credibility they had with their BS spin jobs.


Posted 4 hours ago (edited)


‘Star Wars: Rise Of Skywalker’ Running B.O. To Exceed ‘Last Jedi’ This Sunday — Thursday AM Update – Deadline

Throughout Friday, most industry estimates showed Disney’s Star Wars: Rise of Skywalker beating Last Jedi in its 10th day of release (on Sunday) by $12.8M. But they retreated significantly on their forecasts with the ninth-quel showing a reported running total of $361.8M through 10 days, $6.3M behind Last Jedi at the same point in time. Still, that’s a pretty powerful piece of business and one that exhibition shouldn’t be complaining about. Skywalker‘s weekend per Disney is $72M, -59% (a much better hold than Last Jedi‘s second weekend -68% drop), after a Saturday that was $25.3M, -3%. Five-day came in at $134.75M. The industry confidence is that Skywalker will end its domestic run around where Last Jedi was with $620.1M).

That is Snyderphile level spinning right there. So it is losing to Last Jedi even though it had the favorable holiday. Whatever Di$ney is paying Deadline they should double it because anyone with a calendar and a calculator can see they are lying through their teeth trying to make this seem like a dog with less fleas.

 

[Stark Bauer]

The problem is, most of the films have already been seen by their audience. With so many days off for the holidays there is no rush to go on the weekend. If you are off Tuesday you can go to a Tuesday afternoon show and avoid the mess. Hell if you have kids you can go to a matinee and not annoy half the people there and get out cheaper. The flat box office is a bit weird, but honestly not that surprising with a mid week holiday. (if I am reading right) The fact that Jumanji increased is a pretty cool thing and shows it has staying power. (again)

Ultimately that is what is killing this film though. Most of the people who have any desire to see the film already have. That is nothing new, if you watch most franchise films they are frontloaded for a reason. The ones that dominate the BO though get people either from outside the fan base to show up (Star Wars hasnt done that really since TFA and the factors behind that were discussed) or they get people to go 2,3,4,5 times boosting the totals. That used to be Star Wars to a T. It isnt any more. Without that, you see it is just another blockbuster and it isnt aging well. The audience is old and male and that isnt going to sustain. Compare it to the superhero films that are coming out on a bi-weekly basis these days and it is laughable. They get kids and women at a much higher rate, which leads to longevity and repeated viewings. Ya know why people on BOT think AQ2 would beat whatever Di$ney Wars film comes out in 2022 both DOM and international? Because women lapped that film up. (half the audience was women) Add in China and and there ya go...

Even Di$ney's released number now is pretty bad with a 59% drop. That isnt good on an normal week but a holiday? For what Di$ney was playing off as the "End of the Skywalker Saga" (trying to make this Endgame) that is mediocre AT BEST.

I love Star Wars, have since I was 3 years old. (I am 39) I should not be the demographic that dominates the audience of the film. As long as I am Star Wars will be nothing but a nostalgia franchise that never really goes anywhere. And the last 3 films are showing even in the markets where it is still beloved (like the US) it is seeing diminishing returns. People are having no issues walking away...

edit: Good god what the heck kind of crack is Deadline smoking? I mean I get Di$ney spinning this the way they are but Deadline is destroying what little credibility they had with their BS spin jobs.


Posted 4 hours ago (edited)


‘Star Wars: Rise Of Skywalker’ Running B.O. To Exceed ‘Last Jedi’ This Sunday — Thursday AM Update – Deadline




That is Snyderphile level spinning right there. So it is losing to Last Jedi even though it had the favorable holiday. Whatever Di$ney is paying Deadline they should double it because anyone with a calendar and a calculator can see they are lying through their teeth trying to make this seem like a dog with less fleas.

what is AQ2

 

[Mjolnir Reborn]

what is AQ2

I think he means Aquaman 2, which comes out in December 2022.

 

[Patrick77]

Comic book movies have done what Star Wars failed to do, which is to create something expansive that everybody can see themselves in. Marvel Studios led the way for that, obviously.

The individual movies can vary a lot, different segments of the audience or regions of the world might be more excited about a particular movie, but you don't get this feeling of claustrophobia that has enveloped Star Wars.

The Star Wars movies are starting to remind me of the Terminator movies, oddly enough. Very cool initial concept that is so wrapped in on itself and inward-looking that it starts to feel like watching a time loop.

TV shows and extended universe material can escape that a little, but the films have completely fallen into that trap. They may be very controversial for fans who are already invested, but they are not particularly compelling for anybody new. That's a bad combination.

 

[writer0327]

Comic book movies have done what Star Wars failed to do, which is to create something expansive that everybody can seems themselves in. Marvel Studios led the way for that, obviously.

The individual movies can vary a lot, different segments of the audience or regions of the world might be more excited about a particular movie, but you don't get this feeling of claustrophobia that has enveloped Star Wars.

The Star Wars movies are starting to remind me of the Terminator movies, oddly enough. Very cool initial concept that is so wrapped in on itself and inward-looking that it starts to feel like watching a time loop.

TV shows and extended universe material can escape that a little, but the films have completely fallen into that trap. They may be very controversial for fans who are already invested, but they are not particularly compelling for anybody new. That's a bad combination.

CBMs are different than SW for all the right reasons. How many different iterations of Batman have we had in the last 40 years that SW has existed? Different universes, different actors portraying the role. Keaton, Kilmer, Clooney, Bale, Affleck, and coming soon Pattinson. How many Luke Skywalkers have we had?

SW is limited and must adapt in order to attract a new generation of filmgoers. CBMs have that built in to their DNA: comic books themselves have always adapted their content to appeal to the audience.

 

[Patrick77]

That seems obvious in retrospect, but it's not like everybody was sitting around 15-20 years ago talking about how comic book stories were clearly going to dominate the popular imagination and the worldwide box office, or that characters like Black Panther and Aquaman would be as important and as compelling to people as anything in pop culture.

If anything, what was happening with characters like Batman and Spider-Man was pretty similar to other properties in the sense of being fairly cyclical and inward-looking until Marvel Studios came along.

What's happened with comic book movies is almost a little off-putting because it's proven to be so flexible and engrossing. They are dominating everything else. But it took a lot of creative vision to make that happen.

 

[dhandler01]

I think he means Aquaman 2, which comes out in December 2022.

Correct. Sorry got lazy with acronyms.

 

[sueb1863]

I can't speak to anybody else's audience but the audience I saw TRoS with was not predominantly old and male. Lots of women and younger people. I don't think I saw anybody who I would call "old".

 

[dhandler01]

That seems obvious in retrospect, but it's not like everybody was sitting around 15-20 years ago talking about how comic book stories were clearly going to dominate the popular imagination and the worldwide box office, or that characters like Black Panther and Aquaman would be as important and as compelling to people as anything in pop culture.

If anything, what was happening with characters like Batman and Spider-Man was pretty similar to other properties in the sense of being fairly cyclical and inward-looking until Marvel Studios came along.

What's happened with comic book movies is almost a little off-putting because it's proven to be so flexible and engrossing. They are dominating everything else. But it took a lot of creative vision to make that happen.

That is true, but comics themselves have 1000s of adaptable stories so there was infinite possibilities even if they were being ignored until recently. Star Wars is kind of built on the back of the lives of the characters from the OT. For those that didnt grow up loving Han.Leia and Luke the movies are pretty basic sci-fi fare.

I think if Di$ney had been smart, they would have adapted ideas from the (now LEGENDS...yuck) stories to go forward with. Not full on but much like the comics do where you take the basic story beats and characters and use them to tell whatever story you want to tell. (if you want to use the original cast) It is blatantly obvious, even to someone who likes most of the films that Di$ney had no idea what made those characters great. The ultimate proof to that isnt just that they kind of spit on all of them at various points, but also the pastiche's they created to replace them (the New Friends That Were Never Actually Friends) were mishandled as well. The dynamic BETWEEN the characters is supposed to be the glue of the films. Luke/Leia/Han and Chewie play off each other great and by the end of the first film you really believe their friendship. Then most of them stay together for the rest of the series. (Luke is missing most of Empire/Han at beginning of Jedi) We are watching their story, their lives as things progress. JJ and Rian never got that. They tried to shoehorn it in, starting with Poe meeting Finn and pretending like they were bestest good friends from the word jump. It made no sense, it didnt work and it never really had a chance to grow because they were never really forced to be together. Then Finn is off doing his own thing, Rey is never around until they need a last second saving (she spends more time with Kylo/Ben than she does with her "friends" ) and Poe is literally screwing everything up all the time and getting mad when he is called out on it. None of it feels right. It feels like when all of a sudden Superman dies and the people who hated him all of a sudden love him in BvS. Their love wasnt earned...the moment didnt work. (and I like BvS but come on!)

For as bad as the prequels are, and they are still very bad, at least Lucas tried to give us that again. Having child Vader was stupid, but at least it made sense that Ben and Anakin would be "good friends" because they spent like a decade together and almost all of Anakin's training was done by Ben. Ben failed because he wasnt ready. That dynamic is much better than any of the fake relationships in the ST. If they had taken the time and care to put in something like that (which takes planning, something they didnt do) people might not have had the problems with the stories and arcs they saw in these films. They certainly would have accepted the OT characters riding off into the sunset better.

 

[dhandler01]

I can't speak to anybody else's audience but the audience I saw TRoS with was not predominantly old and male. Lots of women and younger people. I don't think I saw anybody who I would call "old".

I saw it first Friday...3/4 full theater and almost all people my age or over. No one under the age of 30 and maybe 2 women.

This is what Box Office Report said Opening Week:

The audience breakdown for Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker skewed 59 percent male, 41 percent female, 64 percent over the age of 25 and 37 percent under the age of 25. Family audiences represented an estimated 20 percent of the film's overall audience. Of note, is that the film's audience breakdowns were quite similar to the audience breakdowns of Star Wars: The Last Jedi, which suggests that Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker experienced slowing among all demographics.

Those numbers arent good.

 

[sueb1863]

All I can say is that wasn't the case at my showing at all. How do they determine that?

 

[dhandler01]

I would assume they poll the crowds similar to what they do with CinemaScore. I wouldnt pretend to know for sure though

 

[spiderman2]

I think we’ve just seen that the movies are what they are. Toss out Solo. As a non-holiday release it’s hard to compare its performance to the other Disney films. That leaves us with four holiday films, all of which are officially or effectively saga films: 7, 8, 9 and 3.5. One of these, TFA, was an outlier, its giant box office propelled by one-time factors that couldn’t be repeated by the other movies. The other three have all made (or will make it RoS’ case) in the low billions WW range. It’s just what they are.

Just my $0.02. As always, YMMV.

I am getting tired of hearing that TFA was a outlier yes that is true but there are a lot of other issues.

1. Even if TFA is the outlier TLJ made about 700 million less and that is a lot no matter what.
2. TLJ had a drop of on ow compared to TFA but the movie also had bad legs. If the movie had good legs not even great but just good it could have been more like 1.5-1.55 billion instead of 1.3 meaning a smaller drop then it had even if still a good size drop.
3. TLJ pissed of a lot of fans and has a result a lot of those fans were not going to see TROSW.
4. You would think that with TROSW being the last of the skywalker saga that it would get some kind of bost over TLJ yet its looking like it will most likely be around 1.1 billion meaning another 200 million or so drop off from TLJ.
5. Even if TFA is a outlier you cant be happy if your disney that you had a 700 million drop with TLJ and now another 200 million or so from TLJ to TROSW.
6. I think this movie will have better legs then TLJ from looking at fourms and such it seems like the movie reception is a lot better then the reception was for TLJ even if the reception is not amazing over all and i have not known any one who has seen the movie yet and has said they didnt enjoy it in real life only on fourms have i seen any one say they dont like it. But even if its legs are better it most likely is still going to finish with less then TLJ.
7. So yes TFA may have been a outlier but there is no reason that TLJ and TROSW couldnt have been more 1.5-1.6 billion range instead of the more low billion range and that is a big difference to. If say TLJ and TROSW had both made 1.5 billion that would be 3 billion combind. Instead we are looking at like 1.3 and 1.1 billion or 2.4 combind so like 600 million less then what would not be a to high of expectation.

The OS being a sold amount ahead of USA is good but over all i thought the movie was going to be closer to 750 WW now.

 

[Stark Bauer]

CBMs are different than SW for all the right reasons. How many different iterations of Batman have we had in the last 40 years that SW has existed? Different universes, different actors portraying the role. Keaton, Kilmer, Clooney, Bale, Affleck, and coming soon Pattinson. How many Luke Skywalkers have we had?

SW is limited and must adapt in order to attract a new generation of filmgoers. CBMs have that built in to their DNA: comic books themselves have always adapted their content to appeal to the audience.

we can’t compare only the SW universe to all CBMs since SW is one specific franchise and setting. If you are going to compare CBMs to anything it has to be the sci fi space genre- including Avatar, StarTrek, Alien, Predator, John Carter,

 

[Stark Bauer]

That is true, but comics themselves have 1000s of adaptable stories so there was infinite possibilities even if they were being ignored until recently. Star Wars is kind of built on the back of the lives of the characters from the OT. For those that didnt grow up loving Han.Leia and Luke the movies are pretty basic sci-fi fare.

I think if Di$ney had been smart, they would have adapted ideas from the (now LEGENDS...yuck) stories to go forward with. Not full on but much like the comics do where you take the basic story beats and characters and use them to tell whatever story you want to tell. (if you want to use the original cast) It is blatantly obvious, even to someone who likes most of the films that Di$ney had no idea what made those characters great. The ultimate proof to that isnt just that they kind of spit on all of them at various points, but also the pastiche's they created to replace them (the New Friends That Were Never Actually Friends) were mishandled as well. The dynamic BETWEEN the characters is supposed to be the glue of the films. Luke/Leia/Han and Chewie play off each other great and by the end of the first film you really believe their friendship. Then most of them stay together for the rest of the series. (Luke is missing most of Empire/Han at beginning of Jedi) We are watching their story, their lives as things progress. JJ and Rian never got that. They tried to shoehorn it in, starting with Poe meeting Finn and pretending like they were bestest good friends from the word jump. It made no sense, it didnt work and it never really had a chance to grow because they were never really forced to be together. Then Finn is off doing his own thing, Rey is never around until they need a last second saving (she spends more time with Kylo/Ben than she does with her "friends" ) and Poe is literally screwing everything up all the time and getting mad when he is called out on it. None of it feels right. It feels like when all of a sudden Superman dies and the people who hated him all of a sudden love him in BvS. Their love wasnt earned...the moment didnt work. (and I like BvS but come on!)

For as bad as the prequels are, and they are still very bad, at least Lucas tried to give us that again. Having child Vader was stupid, but at least it made sense that Ben and Anakin would be "good friends" because they spent like a decade together and almost all of Anakin's training was done by Ben. Ben failed because he wasnt ready. That dynamic is much better than any of the fake relationships in the ST. If they had taken the time and care to put in something like that (which takes planning, something they didnt do) people might not have had the problems with the stories and arcs they saw in these films. They certainly would have accepted the OT characters riding off into the sunset better.

That is true, but comics themselves have 1000s of adaptable stories so there was infinite possibilities even if they were being ignored until recently. Star Wars is kind of built on the back of the lives of the characters from the OT. For those that didnt grow up loving Han.Leia and Luke the movies are pretty basic sci-fi fare.

I think if Di$ney had been smart, they would have adapted ideas from the (now LEGENDS...yuck) stories to go forward with. Not full on but much like the comics do where you take the basic story beats and characters and use them to tell whatever story you want to tell. (if you want to use the original cast) It is blatantly obvious, even to someone who likes most of the films that Di$ney had no idea what made those characters great. The ultimate proof to that isnt just that they kind of spit on all of them at various points, but also the pastiche's they created to replace them (the New Friends That Were Never Actually Friends) were mishandled as well. The dynamic BETWEEN the characters is supposed to be the glue of the films. Luke/Leia/Han and Chewie play off each other great and by the end of the first film you really believe their friendship. Then most of them stay together for the rest of the series. (Luke is missing most of Empire/Han at beginning of Jedi) We are watching their story, their lives as things progress. JJ and Rian never got that. They tried to shoehorn it in, starting with Poe meeting Finn and pretending like they were bestest good friends from the word jump. It made no sense, it didnt work and it never really had a chance to grow because they were never really forced to be together. Then Finn is off doing his own thing, Rey is never around until they need a last second saving (she spends more time with Kylo/Ben than she does with her "friends" ) and Poe is literally screwing everything up all the time and getting mad when he is called out on it. None of it feels right. It feels like when all of a sudden Superman dies and the people who hated him all of a sudden love him in BvS. Their love wasnt earned...the moment didnt work. (and I like BvS but come on!)

For as bad as the prequels are, and they are still very bad, at least Lucas tried to give us that again. Having child Vader was stupid, but at least it made sense that Ben and Anakin would be "good friends" because they spent like a decade together and almost all of Anakin's training was done by Ben. Ben failed because he wasnt ready. That dynamic is much better than any of the fake relationships in the ST. If they had taken the time and care to put in something like that (which takes planning, something they didnt do) people might not have had the problems with the stories and arcs they saw in these films. They certainly would have accepted the OT characters riding off into the sunset better.

great post and well explained. You nailed it. I focused more on how the characters in the ST were underdeveloped but you went into interpersonal dynamics that is another tier of screenwriting that is needed in order to craft a compelling story with characters that truly resonate with the audience

 

[dhandler01]

I am getting tired of hearing that TFA was a outlier yes that is true but there are a lot of other issues.

1. Even if TFA is the outlier TLJ made about 700 million less and that is a lot no matter what.
2. TLJ had a drop of on ow compared to TFA but the movie also had bad legs. If the movie had good legs not even great but just good it could have been more like 1.5-1.55 billion instead of 1.3 meaning a smaller drop then it had even if still a good size drop.
3. TLJ pissed of a lot of fans and has a result a lot of those fans were not going to see TROSW.
4. You would think that with TROSW being the last of the skywalker saga that it would get some kind of bost over TLJ yet its looking like it will most likely be around 1.1 billion meaning another 200 million or so drop off from TLJ.
5. Even if TFA is a outlier you cant be happy if your disney that you had a 700 million drop with TLJ and now another 200 million or so from TLJ to TROSW.
6. I think this movie will have better legs then TLJ from looking at fourms and such it seems like the movie reception is a lot better then the reception was for TLJ even if the reception is not amazing over all and i have not known any one who has seen the movie yet and has said they didnt enjoy it in real life only on fourms have i seen any one say they dont like it. But even if its legs are better it most likely is still going to finish with less then TLJ.
7. So yes TFA may have been a outlier but there is no reason that TLJ and TROSW couldnt have been more 1.5-1.6 billion range instead of the more low billion range and that is a big difference to. If say TLJ and TROSW had both made 1.5 billion that would be 3 billion combind. Instead we are looking at like 1.3 and 1.1 billion or 2.4 combind so like 600 million less then what would not be a to high of expectation.




The OS being a sold amount ahead of USA is good but over all i thought the movie was going to be closer to 750 WW now.

This is all true, and the fault lies with both Rian Johnson and JJ because neither movie is really that good.

You are wrong about the legs though. Every metric proves it. If this film had any legs at all it wouldnt be dropping 59%. Even worse, it wouldnt be underperforming in one of the best positions holiday wise you can get. It opened lower than expectations, it is dropping worse than expectations and it is about to fall off a cliff after Jan 1. Every number backs up the "meh" legs including the weak B+ Cinemascore and the 86% audience score on RT. (which is roughly a B+ give or take) There are no legs for this...the numbers will continue to drop and after the new year it will lose quite a few screens and the bleeding will be really bad.

There was always going to be a massive drop from TFA to TLJ because TFA was lightning in a bottle. If Rian and JJ had just played this smart instead of each making tyheir own films that contradict each other it wouldnt be this dramatic. Its too bad...