The Rise of Skywalker Star Wars IX Box Office Thread

[samsnee]

$950 mil WW is pretty much a guarantee at this point.

$975-1025 mil final total.

$2B for Force Awakens and will eke to half of that for the last movie. It’s sad how they screwed this up so badly.

 

[Stark Bauer]

$2B for Force Awakens and will eke to half of that for the last movie. It’s sad how they screwed this up so badly.

TFA 2.068 B
TLJ 1.332 B (-736 million)

ROS will finish with less than 1.100 B (-232 million than TLJ, -968 million from TFA)

 

[8ulk87]

Well its definately gonna be less than the $1056,1 mil of SW Rogue One which is pretty sad for a conclusion of a trilogy which started at such heights.

Like i said. SW is no longer the mega franchise it was and had the potential to be.
But its still doing fine as far as money is considered.

 

[Iceman]

Where is it likely to come in the 2019 grosses list?

 

[Mani-Man]

Well its definately gonna be less than the $1056,1 mil of SW Rogue One which is pretty sad for a conclusion of a trilogy which started at such heights.

Like i said. SW is no longer the mega franchise it was and had the potential to be.
But its still doing fine as far as money is considered.

Eh i hate this "SW is no longer the mega franchise" because it is simply not true.
Yeah the movies are a bit in a messy state currently...but look at everything else star wars related.

Rebels, Clone Wars, Mandalorian, Jedi fallen order, the star wars concerts, theme parks, the merchandise and so on.
All brings huge money and i think i said it before...Disney already got back the 4 billion they invested when they bought star wars...and that alone through the movies.
Now imagine the money they made with the other stuff...they make this money because Star Wars is still the mega franchise.

Could it have been more? Oh absolutly, but it is still the mega franchise no doubt about it.

 

[Webhead38]

Eh i hate this "SW is no longer the mega franchise" because it is simply not true.
Yeah the movies are a bit in a messy state currently...but look at everything else star wars related.

Rebels, Clone Wars, Mandalorian, Jedi fallen order, the star wars concerts, theme parks, the merchandise and so on.
All brings huge money and i think i said it before...Disney already got back the 4 billion they invested when they bought star wars...and that alone through the movies.
Now imagine the money they made with the other stuff...they make this money because Star Wars is still the mega franchise.

Could it have been more? Oh absolutly, but it is still the mega franchise no doubt about it.

The merchandising arm has a well documented track of losing consumer interest since the Disney sequels began. In fact movie related merchandise is already being slashed to fire sale levels. Look at this pic of brand new Star Wars product slashed to UNDER Dollar Tree prices. A movie barely out three weeks and product already under a dollar?

There is absolutely no confidence in the movie brand. Now Mandalorian will likely play entirely different. At least I hope it will. But the very fact there was no "Baby Yodas" ready to take the Christmas season by storm tells you no one had any confidence to generate product for the series when it was being filmed. The only other time that EVER happened was when Star Wars was brand new and many toy companies passed on the concept, until the movie came out.

Theme parks have been another black eye for the studio. The Galaxy Edge attraction was met with such a muted response from the public, the veteran executive in charge of its inception was forced to step down. So no, the Star Wars brand has been in a depressed market for some time.

Now does that mean the brand is dead? Of course not. I think Jon Farveau's contribution with Mandalorian has been a HUGE shot in the arm for Star Wars. And with the shake up in top brass at Lucasfilm, we might see a big turn around. But this first trilogy series in the new Disney era, along with its related products and attractions, will go down as one of the low points in the storied history of this franchise.

View attachment 30805

 

[sycamore]

Eh i hate this "SW is no longer the mega franchise" because it is simply not true.
Yeah the movies are a bit in a messy state currently...but look at everything else star wars related.

Rebels, Clone Wars, Mandalorian, Jedi fallen order, the star wars concerts, theme parks, the merchandise and so on.
All brings huge money and i think i said it before...Disney already got back the 4 billion they invested when they bought star wars...and that alone through the movies.
Now imagine the money they made with the other stuff...they make this money because Star Wars is still the mega franchise.

Could it have been more? Oh absolutly, but it is still the mega franchise no doubt about it.

It is completely true. "The Phantom Menace" was one of the most anticipated movies of all time. Ditto "The Force Awakens", though to a lesser extent. You think the franchise is ever going to see those kind of numbers again, with future Star Wars movie releases?

The franchise is officially now an "also-ran". In the same league as Star Trek, Transformers, Fast and the Furious, Harry Potter, and all the other mediocre franchises out there. It simply does not have the cache it once had.

 

[sueb1863]

View attachment 30805

The picture at the bottom of your post is upside down.

It's coming out right side up in the link in my post though, for some reason.

 

[8ulk87]

Where is it likely to come in the 2019 grosses list?

Since its at now $920 mil we can now safely say $1 bil is a lock.

It wont catch Aladdin at $1051 mil.

$1005-1045 mil range.

Current 2019 Top 10.

01. Avengers: EndGame - $2800,7 million
02. The Lion King - $1656,8 million
03. Frozen II - $1325,2 million
04. Spider-Man Far From Home - $1131,9 million
05. Captain Marvel - $1128,3 million
06. Toy Story 4 - $1073,4 million
07. Joker - $1063 million
08. Aladdin - $1051 million
09. Star Wars ep IX: The Rise of Skywalker - $918,8 million
10. Fast & Furious Presents Hobbs & Shaw - $760,3 million

 

[Iceman]

Thanks for that.

9th place for Episode IX is crazy. There’s a lot of films clustered together there with 3 breaking out at the top.

 

[spiderman2]

Since its at now $920 mil we can now safely say $1 bil is a lock.

It wont catch Aladdin at $1051 mil.

$1005-1045 mil range.

Current 2019 Top 10.

01. Avengers: EndGame - $2800,7 million
02. The Lion King - $1656,8 million
03. Frozen II - $1325,2 million
04. Spider-Man Far From Home - $1131,9 million
05. Captain Marvel - $1128,3 million
06. Toy Story 4 - $1073,4 million
07. Joker - $1063 million
08. Aladdin - $1051 million
09. Star Wars ep IX: The Rise of Skywalker - $918,8 million
10. Fast & Furious Presents Hobbs & Shaw - $760,3 million

A little bit of a better hold this weekend then i was expecting. So i think at worst the movie has 50 left dom and like 55 os. That would get it at around 1.024 billion. At best i would say 80 dom and like 90 os to get it around 1.089. That would get it up to 6th. So i dont think Aladen is off the taple yet. The key will be next week starting with mondays hold. If i had to put money on it i wold say the movie has 70 dom left and 75 os. That would put it at about 1.064 right around joker.

 

[dataSlave]

Well its definately gonna be less than the $1056,1 mil of SW Rogue One which is pretty sad for a conclusion of a trilogy which started at such heights.

Like i said. SW is no longer the mega franchise it was and had the potential to be.
But its still doing fine as far as money is considered.

It would be good business if they hadn't paid so much for Lucasfilm. With video included, TRoS probably makes a $200 million on a $500 million investment for production and marketing. But that's a drop in the bucket compared to the cost of the franchise.

The original deal was $4.1 billion - half in cash and half in stock. The 40 million shares Disney gave away are now valued at nearly $6 billion and cost Disney $70 million in dividends each year. The $2.05 billion in cash has a financing cost of roughly 4% so it costs $80 million per year to service. So the current value of what Disney gave Lucas north of $8 billion with $150 million annual financing costs. A true present value calculation would include the $450 million in dividends and $600 million in interest paid on the deal price over 7+ years as well.

To offset those costs, Disney gets roughly half the box office less its own production and marketing costs. Video sales are probably worth $50-60 million per movie within the first couple of years. for example TLJ had $88 million in DVD sales at a margin of 60% or $53 million in profit to Disney. There will be cable showings and syndication which will ultimately produce tens of millions but that will strech out over decades. Present value is low.

People rave about merchandise but it's a lot less than it appears on the surface. Lucasfilm has the most favorable terms in the industry, which is 15% of net sales. Toys carry a higher margin, stuff like commemorative medallions and plates is lower. But keep in mind that it's based on wholesale pricing, not retail and that's a small fraction of what the final customer pays. Total merch sales peaked with TFA at just over $1 billion. That would be $150 million to Disney. Sales subsequently fell to the $700 million range with TLJ and are now lower than that with Solo bombing.

The value of merchandise sales to Disney is likely now under $100 million annually. That's not even enough to cover the cost of servicing the dividends and interest on the purchase price of Lucasfilms. Any profits to be applied against the principal cost of the deal have to come from the movies themselves.

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

Speaking of merch I still see Anna and Elsa stuff a lot.

 

[Marvolo]

It would be good business if they hadn't paid so much for Lucasfilm. With video included, TRoS probably makes a $200 million on a $500 million investment for production and marketing. But that's a drop in the bucket compared to the cost of the franchise.

The original deal was $4.1 billion - half in cash and half in stock. The 40 million shares Disney gave away are now valued at nearly $6 billion and cost Disney $70 million in dividends each year. The $2.05 billion in cash has a financing cost of roughly 4% so it costs $80 million per year to service. So the current value of what Disney gave Lucas north of $8 billion with $150 million annual financing costs. A true present value calculation would include the $450 million in dividends and $600 million in interest paid on the deal price over 7+ years as well.

To offset those costs, Disney gets roughly half the box office less its own production and marketing costs. Video sales are probably worth $50-60 million per movie within the first couple of years. for example TLJ had $88 million in DVD sales at a margin of 60% or $53 million in profit to Disney. There will be cable showings and syndication which will ultimately produce tens of millions but that will strech out over decades. Present value is low.

People rave about merchandise but it's a lot less than it appears on the surface. Lucasfilm has the most favorable terms in the industry, which is 15% of net sales. Toys carry a higher margin, stuff like commemorative medallions and plates is lower. But keep in mind that it's based on wholesale pricing, not retail and that's a small fraction of what the final customer pays. Total merch sales peaked with TFA at just over $1 billion. That would be $150 million to Disney. Sales subsequently fell to the $700 million range with TLJ and are now lower than that with Solo bombing.

The value of merchandise sales to Disney is likely now under $100 million annually. That's not even enough to cover the cost of servicing the dividends and interest on the purchase price of Lucasfilms. Any profits to be applied against the principal cost of the deal have to come from the movies themselves.

Disney got Lucasfilm for a steal, and theyve already made back $4 billion from Star Wars. They paid over $5 billion for Pixar and Marvel, each. So Disney could have and would have paid more for Lucasfilm and been perfectly fine as a result.

 

[jmc]

They actually probably haven’t, not when you consider the additional money they’ve had to spend on it since including the films, theme park expansion and mercy, all of which have shown decline. If you were to break down the numbers it wouldn’t shock me if they’re not even close to breaking even. Disney over paid for Lucasfilm.

 

[Stark Bauer]

It is completely true. "The Phantom Menace" was one of the most anticipated movies of all time. Ditto "The Force Awakens", though to a lesser extent. You think the franchise is ever going to see those kind of numbers again, with future Star Wars movie releases?

The franchise is officially now an "also-ran". In the same league as Star Trek, Transformers, Fast and the Furious, Harry Potter, and all the other mediocre franchises out there. It simply does not have the cache it once had.

A future Star Wars entry will make more than TFA. You can bank on it. SW is bigger than Marvel in my mind, when it comes to influence on pop culture, inspirational to individuals and it’s legacy. TLJ and ROS were simply subpar movies that did not respect the source material nor its own fanbase.

SW will rise again to make over 2 billion per movie again. If Favreau and Filoni or someone at least competent and who GETS STAR WARS takes over. Unless western civilization goes into captivity first.

Lucasfilm will bring Disney at least 3x more for their investment...it will with the new trilogy/Favreau Filoni story arcs. Any money potentially “lost” (Sources say less than 5 million or less) by keeping Baby Yoda a secret generated hundreds of millions more revenue for the next season of The Mandalorian.

 

[Stark Bauer]

Revised Prediction:

I HATE TO ADMIT I WAS WRONG BUT I WILL MAN UP AND ADMIT: I WILL BE WRONG.

The Rise of Skywalker will hit a billion.

Domestic: 508.5$ million
International: 521.5$ million

Worldwide: 1.030 billion

I personally cannot wait for a Knights of The Old Republic trilogy - if the rumours are true - and Keanu Reeves ends up being the lead - Darth Revan a Jedi who dons a Mandalorian helmet - I expect such a movie to make over a billion in its first week.

 

[psylockolussus]

Since its at now $920 mil we can now safely say $1 bil is a lock.

It wont catch Aladdin at $1051 mil.

$1005-1045 mil range.

Current 2019 Top 10.

01. Avengers: EndGame - $2800,7 million
02. The Lion King - $1656,8 million
03. Frozen II - $1325,2 million
04. Spider-Man Far From Home - $1131,9 million
05. Captain Marvel - $1128,3 million
06. Toy Story 4 - $1073,4 million
07. Joker - $1063 million
08. Aladdin - $1051 million
09. Star Wars ep IX: The Rise of Skywalker - $918,8 million
10. Fast & Furious Presents Hobbs & Shaw - $760,3 million

Another billion dollar movie from Disney!

A future Star Wars entry will make more than TFA. You can bank on it. SW is bigger than Marvel in my mind, when it comes to influence on pop culture, inspirational to individuals and it’s legacy. TLJ and ROS were simply subpar movies that did not respect the source material not its own fanbase.

SW will rise again to make over 2 billion per movie again. If Favreau and Filoni or someone at least competent and who GETS STAR WARS takes over. Unless western civilization goes into captivity first.

Lucasfilm will bring Disney at least 3x more for their investment...it will with the new trilogy/Favreau Filoni story arcs. Any money potentially “lost” (Sources say less than 5 million or less) by keeping Baby Yoda a secret generated hundreds of millions more revenue for the next season of The Mandalorian.

And I doubt thats happening in this new decade. Unless Star Wars doesn't get a new film for the next ten years, then maybe there could be a new Sw film that could outgross TFA. The box office numbers from Episode 7 to 9 show box office decline. It suddenly won't grow up to 2billion in the next few years. You're being too optimistic but 2 billion in the next few years is just not realistic.

 

[Iceman]

Revised Prediction:

I HATE TO ADMIT I WAS WRONG BUT I WILL MAN UP AND ADMIT: I WILL BE WRONG.

The Rise of Skywalker will hit a billion.

Domestic: 508.5$ million
International: 521.5$ million

Worldwide: 1.030 billion

I personally cannot wait for a Knights of The Old Republic trilogy - if the rumours are true - and Keanu Reeves ends up being the lead - Darth Revan a Jedi who dons a Mandalorian helmet - I expect such a movie to make over a billion in its first week.

Wow, that looks amazing. I would be back with full force for that. Plus Keanu is one of the most well-liked Hollywood guys nowadays. Could be exactly what's needed.

 

[Iceman]

A future Star Wars entry will make more than TFA. You can bank on it. SW is bigger than Marvel in my mind, when it comes to influence on pop culture, inspirational to individuals and it’s legacy. TLJ and ROS were simply subpar movies that did not respect the source material not its own fanbase.

SW will rise again to make over 2 billion per movie again. If Favreau and Filoni or someone at least competent and who GETS STAR WARS takes over. Unless western civilization goes into captivity first.

Lucasfilm will bring Disney at least 3x more for their investment...it will with the new trilogy/Favreau Filoni story arcs. Any money potentially “lost” (Sources say less than 5 million or less) by keeping Baby Yoda a secret generated hundreds of millions more revenue for the next season of The Mandalorian.

Star Wars is still huge in the West but I don't see how it makes up the numbers elsewhere compared to EG level Marvel event films. Think of the difference in somewhere like China for eg. Even if SW gets back to mega numbers again, the MCU might be capable of more worldwide even if it makes less in the West.

 

[samsnee]

Eh i hate this "SW is no longer the mega franchise" because it is simply not true.
Yeah the movies are a bit in a messy state currently...but look at everything else star wars related.

Rebels, Clone Wars, Mandalorian, Jedi fallen order, the star wars concerts, theme parks, the merchandise and so on.
All brings huge money and i think i said it before...Disney already got back the 4 billion they invested when they bought star wars...and that alone through the movies.
Now imagine the money they made with the other stuff...they make this money because Star Wars is still the mega franchise.

Could it have been more? Oh absolutly, but it is still the mega franchise no doubt about it.

Star Wars movies will always be an event movie. But I think Marvel movies, specifically the Avengers ones, are the younger generations’ Star Wars.

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

Marvel's Endgame made more money than TLJ + TROS combined + another around another half billion or whatever. Because most of the rest of the world outside the United States doesn't care about Star Wars nearly as much as Marvel.

That four billion figure was just for the purchase on Lucasfilm before 2013. NOT including any expenditures after on the movies, tv shows, theme parks, payroll, and everything from 2013 to the present time.

 

[8ulk87]

A future Star Wars entry will make more than TFA. You can bank on it.

SW will rise again to make over 2 billion per movie again. If Favreau and Filoni or someone at least competent and who GETS STAR WARS takes over. Unless western civilization goes into captivity first.

Im pretty sure it wont happen but we will talk about it when we have some trailers.
SW has hearch its max height.

 

[Mr. Peanut]

Compared to Disney's other big branches (Marvel, Pixar, and Disney Animation), Lucasfilm has proven itself to be far less sustainable for long term consistent profitability. That doesn't mean it'll be completely abandoned as a blockbuster movie franchise or anything, but Lucasfilm has wasted its potential to join the ranks of Disney's major pillars.

The reason the big three are so consistenty huge is because they are consistent at giving their audience what they want and expect. People know what they're getting when they go to a Marvel, Disney Animation, or Pixar film, and that allows hype to build even without the need for active marketing. But Lucasfilm refused to be...predictable like this. Particularly with TLJ. Regardless of what you think of TLJ from an artistic standpoint, you have to admit it's a bad idea from a business standpoint to suddenly overhaul the menu when you have people lining up in droves for what you were already serving.

 

[AcidRain]

I personally cannot wait for a Knights of The Old Republic trilogy - if the rumours are true - and Keanu Reeves ends up being the lead - Darth Revan a Jedi who dons a Mandalorian helmet - I expect such a movie to make over a billion in its first week.

I don't think the general public knows anything about Darth Revan or The Old Republic, nor would they care if Keanu Reeves dons a Mandalorian helmet. This prediction sounds like wishful fanboy thinking.