The Avengers The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread - Part 2

[kedrell]

Good to see you around again Kedrell; you had been absent for a while there.

And yes I smell a lot more as well.

Yeah, I got a new job that kept me away from the internet for awhile. But that's not a problem anymore. Thanks.

 

[Chewy]

178M this weekend
~50M weekdays
~120M overseas weekend next week (including openings in Russia, China, etc)
~160 domestic opening weekend

would be ~510M by the end of May 6th

 

[Gamma Burst]

Yeah, what I expect. $178m plus a whole week of further overseas receipts with new territories plus a massive US opening weekend.

This is so awesome!!!

 

[PokeJ]

I don't really credit the marketing campaign that much. This movie was an easy sell.

 

[FreeRadical]

One article in a trade said that Disney/Marvel will have marketing campaigns with its partners running at least through June. Some of them are going to run all the way up to the September DVD/Blu-Ray release.


Might Marvel try to get a limited re-release for The Avengers late in the summer season? Late August through September is a pretty dead time, so putting it back out in some IMAX locations to get repeat customers could pay off. That would be especially true if there are weak films debuting then, or if some of the late releases bomb.

Yeah, I read that Disney is going to continue the marketing for The Avengers long term. But in terms of IMAX, it's unlikely it will return during the late summer, since IMAX announced that they are giving priority to The Dark Knight Rises from late July until September.

 

[FreeRadical]

I remember Disney announcing that they were going to continue marketing overseas well beyond release because they feel that the movie is great and has legs.

I hope they ramp it up a bit in places like England and Germany.

They have new TV spots over here showing the positive reviews from the media, and since there is a holiday weekend next week in the UK, with the good word of mouth, the film should do very well.

 

[Quasimod0]

178M this weekend
~50M weekdays
~120M overseas weekend next week (including openings in Russia, China, etc)
~160 domestic opening weekend

would be ~510M by the end of May 6th

t: this would be amazing. Hope it has great legs too.

 

[Shadowlord X]

They have new TV spots over here showing the positive reviews from the media, and since there is a holiday weekend next week in the UK, with the good word of mouth, the film should do very well.

Great. I hope you are right! Are there any other major films releasing that holiday weekend?

 

[Shadowlord X]

Yeah, I read that Disney is going to continue the marketing for The Avengers long term. But in terms of IMAX, it's unlikely it will return during the late summer, since IMAX announced that they are giving priority to The Dark Knight Rises from late July until September.

I wonder if that might change if THE AVENGERS achieves overwhelming success?

 

[Raiden]

178M this weekend
~50M weekdays
~120M overseas weekend next week (including openings in Russia, China, etc)
~160 domestic opening weekend

would be ~510M by the end of May 6th

Great news! t: With the international box office so integral to a film's overall success and key to reach that 1B milestone, if TA can achieve 510 mil in the foreign markets I think TA will join that exclusive club before long.

 

[Mace Dolex]

Why is The Avengers getting released in other countries before the U.S., how is that going to prevent video piracy when anybody from outside the U.S. can just sneak a copy in?

 

[Chewy]

It's getting released early to take advantage of national holidays

 

[Shadow Moses]

If this movie doesnt make over 1 billion I will be very disappointed in mankind. Easily in top 3 of movies I've seen in my life. Can't wait to see it again.

 

[Saitou Hajime]

Looking at the bang-up job they did with TA makes me wonder how Disney could've dropped the ball so bad with John Carter. They could have 2 billion dollar hits in 2012.

 

[Iceman]

If this movie doesnt make over 1 billion I will be very disappointed in mankind. Easily in top 3 of movies I've seen in my life. Can't wait to see it again.

Mankind owes us at least 3 billion dollar films this year. Avengers, TDKR & The Hobbit (if LOTR standard).

 

[TheVileOne]

Looking at the bang-up job they did with TA makes me wonder how Disney could've dropped the ball so bad with John Carter. They could have 2 billion dollar hits in 2012.

Blame MT Carney and Rich Ross . . . and I guess to some degree Andrew Stanton.

They marketed John Carter terribly. No wonder no one wanted to see it.

 

[Xeno]

Should be closer to 500M than 400M after next weekend.

That's what I wrote at first , but I decided to be cautious lest someone accuse me of "thinking like a fan" again. t:


What gets me about the whole "thinking like a fan thing" is that it cuts both ways. Certainly some fans have over-inflated expectations for films because they blind themselves to the reality of the situation. But the reverse is also true. There are times when some fans cannot see past their own misconceptions and personal biases to see how popular a film or performer will be. I have definitely been guilty of that in the past, particularly with Avatar, whose box office performance I drastically underestimated. The fact that I wasn't personally impressed with the trailers led me to believe that the GA wouldn't be, either. Of course I was very much mistaken about that.


It seems that the same has happened with The Avengers. If it reaches the billion-dollar threshold, there are going to be a lot of surprised and possibly chagrined people who had it pegged as a standard non-sequel Marvel film. Many of those low-ball estimates appear to have been based on the belief that a Marvel movie simply could not make that much money under any circumstances. And that belief stemmed from the opinion that Marvel puts out lightweight films that aren't like the one dark and gritty superhero film that made over a billion.

 

[Saitou Hajime]

Nah, they'll just change their tune again and this time go with the "bad movies make a lot of money" excuse.

 

[Gamma Burst]

Nah, they'll just change their tune again and this time go with the "bad movies make a lot of money" excuse.

No doubt about it.

 

[Raiden]

Nah, they'll just change their tune again and this time go with the "bad movies make a lot of money" excuse.

You mean they will group Marvel movies with Michael Bay's?

I kid, I kid...I actually enjoy some of Bay's movies. t:

 

[Chewy]

I can tell you exactly what the tune is going to be. The movie is just "fun", and isn't "deep" enough.

It has already started.

 

[Saitou Hajime]

Some say Sunday's haul in UK might be higher, giving us £15.8m / $25.5m.

 

[BigThor]

I can tell you exactly what the tune is going to be. The movie is just "fun", and isn't "deep" enough.

It has already started.

I've known that was going to be the case for the longest, we all know in fanboy logic "fun" is a word used to describe a bad film.

 

[Quasimod0]

"Fun" makes a movie more enjoyable and rewatchable, IMO.

 

[BigThor]

"Fun" makes a movie more enjoyable and rewatchable, IMO.

Same here, even only more comic book fans felt the same way.