The Avengers The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread - Part 2

[Marvin]

"you either die the hero..."
lol

 

[Ultimatehero]

First off, it's extremely crass to bring Ledger's death up in this context. Second, I was given to understand that it had nothing to do with TDK's box office numbers. Are you saying that isn't true?

In the industry, and I hate saying this because it is dark, despicable, gloomy, morose and everything - his death did benefit the box office. Some went just to see his 'last performance' when they weren't planning to before. It made it more of like a 'Rebel Without a Cause' kind of cultural impact. Keep in mind I beyond hate that I'm saying this. But, in Hollywood generally any kind of controversy is good fortune - controversy draws in a larger crowd than it might have otherwise. As said, I hate that this was the case for some. But, many did go just because it was his final big role. And in time, if it's not already, it'll be remembered similarly to 'Rebel Without a Cause.' It's like the news (similarly aimed to sell) or driving past a car accident, people are naturally curious in the morose. His death sadly gave it free publicity. As said, I hate that fractions of the world populace is still like this - but it just is.

 

[Tony Stark]

No one's disputing that the tragedy didn't generate business, but to go and say "unless Joss or RDJ bites it, I don't see any other Marvel films doing well" That's the definition of crass.

 

[Vulklin]

when is the top 10 UK box office going to be up?

its 3 days after week ending 29 april

put it up already mojo!

 

[Ultimatehero]

Unless I missed that in what MARVIN was saying, didn't hear that part???

Just heard MARVIN state that Heath's death brought in additional box office for TDKR. And if an actor died AVENGERS would be effected in the same way. It would be a tragedy and unless someone dies like with TDK - it would continue for a very long time. Unless I didn't scroll back far enough?

 

[Iceman]

well you are the optimist i'll give you that t:

i want to see the dreaded percentage drop first, because everything is front loaded right now. i know how good this movie is so i know it will do repeat business, but just by how much is hard to tell at this point it time. i know projections right now is that its $500M globally by Sunday. if this baby clocks anywhere in the neighborhood of $700M by the time Mothers Day weekend rolls around... then i'll reassess my estimates, by then i would be able to see the trending for the rest of the summer including the effects of other highly anticipated movies.

Yep t:

It's only going to miss if it has much worse drops than other massively front-ended blockbusters. That would be caused by bad reviews and WoM and that's not looking likely (at all) at the moment.

When is Mother's Day btw? (not sure what country you're from)

 

[Iceman]

I happen to think TA faces some pretty petty competition this month. It should fare well. If TA was opening say May 2007 it would be a different story.

I agree with Decoy, there is no way it doesn't hit 350 domestic and 650 overseas. This is Marvel's perfect storm moment. I fear it may be their last too.

I'm sure Avengers 2 will make $1BN. Overseas markets are going to be all over it POTC style. I doubt any other Marvel Studio films are going to be doing that kind of business though.

 

[Marvin]

Unless I missed that in what MARVIN was saying, didn't hear that part???

Just heard MARVIN state that Heath's death brought in additional box office for TDKR. And if an actor died AVENGERS would be effected in the same way. It would be a tragedy and unless someone dies like with TDK - it would continue for a very long time. Unless I didn't scroll back far enough?

It's a touchy subject and big business, people will hear what they want to hear.

 

[Tony Stark]

Unless I missed that in what MARVIN was saying, didn't hear that part???

Just heard MARVIN state that Heath's death brought in additional box office for TDKR. And if an actor died AVENGERS would be effected in the same way. It would be a tragedy and unless someone dies like with TDK - it would continue for a very long time. Unless I didn't scroll back far enough?

If The Avengers was RDJ's last performance due to some sort of substance overdose, the buzz for this film would be off the charts, period. I doubt we'd even be discussing 1billion in the way we are now.

That was the quote.

 

[Marvin]

I'm sure Avengers 2 will make $1BN. Overseas markets are going to be all over it POTC style. I doubt any other Marvel Studio films are going to be doing that kind of business though.

I hope the next ones go on to make even more money(I'm Joss's biggest fan actually). But RDJ's contract is all but up and Joss is does have his passions. I just don't see a sequel without both of them making as much(or even being as good).

but maybe they will stay, that'd be great.

 

[Marvin]

No one's disputing that the tragedy didn't generate business, but to go and say "unless Joss or RDJ bites it, I don't see any other Marvel films doing well" That's the definition of crass.

Good thing I didn't say that then.

Moreover, what I did say I said after the supposed observation was made and I did it as an example. Barely.

 

[Steelsheen]

Yep t:

It's only going to miss if it has much worse drops than other massively front-ended blockbusters. That would be caused by bad reviews and WoM and that's not looking likely (at all) at the moment.

When is Mother's Day btw? (not sure what country you're from)

second Sunday of May... which is May 13th, so its essentially the second weekend after Avengers hits the screens in North America on May 4th.

 

[ElMariachi]

I am pretty sure that RDJ will return for Avengers sequels. Why wouldn't he? The movie is getting praised by critics, is going to rake in at the box office, and will certainly elevate his star status. If Disney can woo Johnny Depp to return to Pirates of the Caribbean, I am sure they will be able to for RDJ. I am sure he would be in line for a massive paycheck for Avengers 2 or Iron Man 4.

Joss Whedon is a bit more difficult to predict. I expect him to return but a sequel will be successful without him. It's possible he could come on the write the movie and have somebody else direct it. His writing is the most important thing, not his directing skills.

 

[Raiden]

I am pretty sure that RDJ will return for Avengers sequels. Why wouldn't he? The movie is getting praised by critics, is going to rake in at the box office, and will certainly elevate his star status. If Disney can woo Johnny Depp to return to Pirates of the Caribbean, I am sure they will be able to for RDJ. I am sure he would be in line for a massive paycheck for Avengers 2 or Iron Man 4.

Joss Whedon is a bit more difficult to predict. I expect him to return but a sequel will be successful without him. It's possible he could come on the write the movie and have somebody else direct it. His writing is the most important thing, not his directing skills.

Marvel has a habit of changing their directors, but I hope they won't when it comes to Joss Whedon. He is the MVP of The Avengers, because without his writing and direction, this movie could've easily become a mess, when it could not afford to disappoint after 5 years buildup leading to this movie. Now Marvel has the financial capability to give him a huge paycheck, and I hope they will do so to entice him back for TA2 & 3?

 

[Ultimatehero]

That was the quote.

You're definitely reading that awkwardly. That wasn't what was said and even Marvin said that's not what Marvin said.

We wouldn't be discussing box office. It's box office would be the furthest thing from people's minds if somebody died. Or at least to those who actually care about people. Box office would be the last thing on one's mind. Plus, controversy would inevitably having it performing better than it will.

Good thing I didn't say that then.

 

[Chewy]

RDJ will sign for two more Avengers movies.

 

[Bim]

I just saw the official figure for the opening weekend was $185.1 and it already has $218.2 overseas

 

[ElMariachi]

Marvel has a habit of changing their directors, but I hope they won't when it comes to Joss Whedon. He is the MVP of The Avengers, because without his writing and direction, this movie could've easily become a mess, when it could not afford to disappoint after 5 years buildup leading to this movie. Now Marvel has the financial capability to give him a huge paycheck, and I hope they will do so to entice him back for TA2 & 3?

There really isn't any excuse for them to not reward Whedon with a large paycheck and breathing room for a sequel. It's not like they don't have the money. If he doesn't return, I doubt it's about money and more about him getting rushed into pushing out a sequel in 2 years. I can understand why they did it for Iron Man 2 though.

 

[Tony Stark]

You're definitely reading that awkwardly. That wasn't what was said and even Marvin said that's not what Marvin said.

We wouldn't be discussing box office. It's box office would be the furthest thing from people's minds if somebody died. Or at least to those who actually care about people. Box office would be the last thing on one's mind. Plus, controversy would inevitably having it performing better than it will.

I don't think hypothetically talking about someone's death is appropriate. I'll leave it at that.

 

[Iceman]

I hope the next ones go on to make even more money(I'm Joss's biggest fan actually). But RDJ's contract is all but up and Joss is does have his passions. I just don't see a sequel without both of them making as much(or even being as good).

but maybe they will stay, that'd be great.

Joss should be free to work on any other projects he wants in between. If Avengers 2 comes out in 3 years I don't see why he wouldn't want to go back to it (if paid well enough). RDJ also, playing Stark makes this guy into a full on rock star. If I was him I'd never stop!

second Sunday of May... which is May 13th, so its essentially the second weekend after Avengers hits the screens in North America on May 4th.

Plenty of time t:

 

[spider-neil]

people will hear what they want to hear.

milk with 2 sugars, please.

 

[KangConquers]

RDJ will sign for two more Avengers movies.

I'm hoping he'll sign for 3 movies...Avengers 2, Iron Man 4 and Avengers 3.

 

[flickchick85]

Yeah, I'd like to see Avengers 3 be his swan song as Tony Stark. He'll be about 55+ years old then, so I'd say that would be a good time to move on.

 

[Iceman]

Yeah, I'd like to see Avengers 3 be his swan song as Tony Stark. He'll be about 55+ years old then, so I'd say that would be a good time to move on.

If there's an Avengers 4 would you want IM to be in it or to take a break with no RDJ? Not sure what I'd prefer.

 

[KangConquers]

Yeah, I'd like to see Avengers 3 be his swan song as Tony Stark. He'll be about 55+ years old then, so I'd say that would be a good time to move on.

I figure they'll do Avengers 2 in 2015, and Avengers 3 in 2018; Feige said they'll be doing an Avengers movie once every 2 or 3 years, that it wouldn't be a long wait like some people expect. That'd put Downey at 53. Still a little long in the tooth, but young enough to pull it off.