The Avengers The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread - Part 2

[Webfoot Hero]

"Fun" makes a movie more enjoyable and rewatchable, IMO.

This a x1000. A fun movie makes it rewatchable, while a dark, gritty film doesn't always do that. I'll use the Nolan Batman films as an example. BB is a film I can watch over and over while TDK is one I can only watch occassionally.

 

[bonzob2000]

Now, this is not entirely the case with the Avengers, but I'd also say that Whedon, in general, writes with just as much complexity and sophistication as Nolan. He just does so with more jokes and a more fantastic, "pop" sensibility. His best episodes of Buffy and Firefly were profound and rich in ideas as well as being hilarious and fun. I feel like that gets lost.

Even in the Avengers, people are focusing on the big action beats and the humor, but there is a lot of smart thematic stuff going on beneath the surface, not to mention lots of downright poetic dialogue amongst the yuks. I don't think 1 writer in 100 would right a line for Nick Fury that sounds as Shakespearean as "until such time as the world ends, we will act as though it intends to spin on," but Joss pulls it off.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

The problem with Whedon is if you see one thing he has done, you have pretty much seen it all in terms of how he writes. He has this bad tendency to write characters as if they are just that, his characters. A similar voice, style and ideas.

 

[Oruku Saki]

Funny you say that cause I don't see any of the Avengers being like the characters in Serenity. Also, after watching Cabin in the Woods, I see Whedon's comedic style; but that doesn't mean it's like Avengers in any way really.

 

[bonzob2000]

The problem with Whedon is if you see one thing he has done, you have pretty much seen it all in terms of how he writes. He has this bad tendency to write characters as if they are just that, his characters. A similar voice, style and ideas.

I sort of disagree on two levels. One, I think that's true of almost any writer, it's just more noticeable with writers who write primarily in the same genre and write in a stylized manner, as Joss does (but hey, Nolan does it too... his femmes fatales are all very similar, as are his brooding antihero protagonists tortured by the horrible death of a loved one, usually a woman).

And two, I think you can definitely see similar character types across Whedon's work (Xander/Topher/Wash, for instance), and those characters tend to talk similarly, but within each thing he creates, I feel he's very good at differentiating character voice, which is one of the hardest things to do as a writer (i.e. Wash may sound like Xander at times, but he doesn't sound like any of the other characters in Firefly).

He does write stories where all the characters are witty, it's true, but they are witty in their own way in a way that's true to who they are as people. IMO anyway.

 

[Raiden]

I sort of disagree on two levels. One, I think that's true of almost any writer, it's just more noticeable with writers who write primarily in the same genre and write in a stylized manner, as Joss does (but hey, Nolan does it too... his femmes fatales are all very similar, as are his brooding antihero protagonists tortured by the horrible death of a loved one, usually a woman).

And two, I think you can definitely see similar character types across Whedon's work (Xander/Topher/Wash, for instance), and those characters tend to talk similarly, but within each thing he creates, I feel he's very good at differentiating character voice, which is one of the hardest things to do as a writer (i.e. Wash may sound like Xander at times, but he doesn't sound like any of the other characters in Firefly).

He does write stories where all the characters are witty, it's true, but they are witty in their own way in a way that's true to who they are as people. IMO anyway.

True, Whedon isn't like Bendis, who pretty much write all his characters with the same personality and speaking habits. Whedon doesn't do that, and he can recognize the unique characteristics of the characters he writes.

 

[Suzanne78]

I sort of disagree on two levels. One, I think that's true of almost any writer, it's just more noticeable with writers who write primarily in the same genre and write in a stylized manner, as Joss does (but hey, Nolan does it too... his femmes fatales are all very similar, as are his brooding antihero protagonists tortured by the horrible death of a loved one, usually a woman).

And two, I think you can definitely see similar character types across Whedon's work (Xander/Topher/Wash, for instance), and those characters tend to talk similarly, but within each thing he creates, I feel he's very good at differentiating character voice, which is one of the hardest things to do as a writer (i.e. Wash may sound like Xander at times, but he doesn't sound like any of the other characters in Firefly).

He does write stories where all the characters are witty, it's true, but they are witty in their own way in a way that's true to who they are as people. IMO anyway.

Yes, this is exactly Joss' writing style for me. Also, every Whedon project has carried a different tone with it, progressively getting less "jokey", and banter-y as you work your way through them.

Buffy was, for all intents and purposes, a high school dramedy (although far more sophisticated than that IMO).

Angel was a darker, grittier detective story.

Firefly and Serenity are, at their cores, westerns.

Dollhouse is slick science fiction.

Joss' writing style is very, very different for each one, but all of them excel at creating very distinct characters, each with their own voice and personality. The characters reflect the themes and tones of each work respectively. And some do get the chance to be wittier than others. But I agree that the wit and humor are unique to each specific character. I've never heard a line said by Xander that would also be said by Wash/Lorne/Topher.

ETA: correction - both Xander and Topher are geeks, so there would be some pop culture-type overlap. But not much.

 

[Tony Stark]

The problem with Whedon is if you see one thing he has done, you have pretty much seen it all in terms of how he writes. He has this bad tendency to write characters as if they are just that, his characters. A similar voice, style and ideas.

You are confusing style with characterization. Every writer has his own style and while I haven't seen the film, I've seen enough clips to see the style seep through.

Joss' dry humor is probably the thing that seeps most in his writing. And delivery is everything. The famous "what happens to a Toad when it's struck by lightning?" was his writing. The problem was the delivery was all wrong. What was supposed to be a sarcastic off handed comment is delivered terribly by Halle Berry, as if it were some grandiose Shakespearean line.

His style requires more from the actors than most writers. They have to get inside Joss' head to understand his thinking. Thankfully actors like Fillion or Downy, or even Sarah Michelle Gellar are very good at delivering off handed one liners.

The characterization is nothing alike. There is no "Buffy" in Avengers. There is no "Wash" in Dollhouse. There is no "Iron Man" in Firefly. The characters live and breath as individuals. In fact this is the strongest part of Joss' writing, and what separates him from someone like Michael Bay, who writes forgettable cardboard cutouts, often relying on overt sexuality to cover up for bad writing.

 

[Excel]

its going to break the opening weekend record in the united states, calling it now

 

[mc7791]

its going to break the opening weekend record in the united states, calling it now

that I would love to see

 

[TheGambler]

It opened even bigger than previously reported:

#Avengers bigger than estimated o'seas. Revised WED-SUN opening upped from $178.4M to $185.1M.

- Source

 

[pyromaniac]

Oruku Saki, bonzob2000, Raiden, Suzanne78, Tony Stark,

I absolutely, unequivocally, unreservedly agree with you all. I only wish you could parade your truer than true statements across the entire Internet, especially those who don't (yet) understand Whedon's storytelling oeuvre and filmmaking raison d'etre. He is sooo subtle even when he wraps his stories in surface 'silliness'. He excels in metaphor, subtext, symbolism and cross-genres. He's basically the reason today why I want to write, and learn from him.

 

[mc7791]

It opened even bigger than previously reported:

- Source

excelent. thank you for the update

 

[Kirk Langstrom]

I can tell you exactly what the tune is going to be. The movie is just "fun", and isn't "deep" enough.

It has already started.

Indeed.

 

[Raiden]

It opened even bigger than previously reported:

- Source

Wow, this is amazing. I hope the OW in the U.S. will break more than a few records as well.

 

[Suzanne78]

Dude... the first opening weekend number was off by a lot!

An INCREASE?!?! Dude. Wow.

 

[Kirk Langstrom]

It opened even bigger than previously reported:

- Source

Awesome!

 

[Iceman]

It opened even bigger than previously reported:

- Source

Thanks man. Big increase!

 

[kedrell]

Wow, this is amazing. I hope the OW in the U.S. will break more than a few records as well.

If it wants to really make history it should hope to hold #1 not just for 3 weekends(which I think is likely and even then it'd be the first time for a May release in 20 years to do so) but to try and hold it for 4 weekends(which would require beating MIB3). That has never happened and would be one of those records that could stand unbroken for possibly decades. But even I give it well less than a 50% chance of doing that. Maybe a 33% chance. But it isn't readily impossible.

 

[mc7791]

Hulk sink Battleship! Battleship was released internationally starting at 4/11 and has made 170 million so far. Avengers has been out internationally for less than a week and already sank it!! Amazing!!!

 

[Tony Stark]

If it wants to really make history it should hope to hold #1 not just for 3 weekends(which I think is likely and even then it'd be the first time for a May release in 20 years to do so) but to try and hold it for 4 weekends(which would require beating MIB3). That has never happened and would be one of those records that could stand unbroken for possibly decades. But even I give it well less than a 50% chance of doing that. Maybe a 33% chance. But it isn't readily impossible.

If it's no 1 for 4 weeks then not only will it break 1B ww, but it will break 500M domestically.

I've got no read on MIB3 at all. I have a feeling it will be this years Terminator Salvation. They just waited too long between installments to have any kind of impact. The first one was fun and quirky, and really it was TLJ that carried the movies, and this time it will be Josh Brolin doing a TLJ impersonation.

I just don't see it doing very well. The second one wasn't as successful, and was a horrible movie, and it was released 10 years ago. I just don't see the market for this film.

 

[Weadazoid]

Well, I have long said this 200 million opening weekend


I figure 80 million for Friday including the midnight showings

then drops to 65 Million on Saturday

Then drops to 55 million on SUnday


everyone I know is talking about seeing this movie this weekend - everyone -

 

[Shadowlord X]

It opened even bigger than previously reported:

- Source

WOW!!!!!!! Great news! Thanx for the update!

 

[kedrell]

If it's no 1 for 4 weeks then not only will it break 1B ww, but it will break 500M domestically.

I've got no read on MIB3 at all. I have a feeling it will be this years Terminator Salvation. They just waited too long between installments to have any kind of impact. The first one was fun and quirky, and really it was TLJ that carried the movies, and this time it will be Josh Brolin doing a TLJ impersonation.

I just don't see it doing very well. The second one wasn't as successful, and was a horrible movie, and it was released 10 years ago. I just don't see the market for this film.

It could break $500M with only 3 weekends at #1.

OW - 170M
weekdays - 50-60M
2nd weekend - 80-90M
weekdays - 30-40M
3rd weekend - 50-60M
weekdays - 15-25M

It could already be nearly at $400M by the time MIB3 rolls out and still have at least another $100M in the gas tank.

 

[Raiden]

If it's no 1 for 4 weeks then not only will it break 1B ww, but it will break 500M domestically.

I've got no read on MIB3 at all. I have a feeling it will be this years Terminator Salvation. They just waited too long between installments to have any kind of impact. The first one was fun and quirky, and really it was TLJ that carried the movies, and this time it will be Josh Brolin doing a TLJ impersonation.

I just don't see it doing very well. The second one wasn't as successful, and was a horrible movie, and it was released 10 years ago. I just don't see the market for this film.

I feel the same way. Personally, I thought the first movie was just okay, and what saved it was the Odd Couple-esque squabbles between Smith and Jones, and some interesting concepts about aliens and the fabled MIB agents, all wrapped up in an action/comedy blanket. The follow-up was terrible, and wasn't even worth watching. And they come up with the third installment on a tired formula, and an extremely long wait between #2 & 3, that I doubt the moviegoers will really bother with it. I don't recall any anticipation or demand about a third MIB movie, either, plus I'm sure the critics will tear it a new one once they get a hold of it. I won't be surprised if Sony keeps the embargo until the day of its release in the U.S.