The Avengers The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread - Part 2

[KangConquers]

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/intl/weekend/opening/

It's still going to be an uphill battle for $1 Billion. Avengers currently looks like it'll barely make it to $600 M, if at all. I also don't think $400 M domestic is a guarantee.

I do, however, think we'll see it break Spider-Man 3's $890 M to become the highest grossing Marvel movie ever, which is a feat unto itself.

 

[Tony Stark]

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/intl/weekend/opening/

It's still going to be an uphill battle for $1 Billion. Avengers currently looks like it'll barely make it to $600 M, if at all. I also don't think $400 M domestic is a guarantee.

I do, however, think we'll see it break Spider-Man 3's $890 M to become the highest grossing Marvel movie ever, which is a feat unto itself.

Well those numbers were before the newly revised numbers of something like 185M. Still it can easily make 600M with those numbers, and I think it will have much better legs than 2012.

 

[Joeyjojo72]

Guys, please dont use Twitter as a source. It isn't. Find the original source, or a verifiable news outlet, and then link. Thanks.


http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-505245_162-57424179/avengers-shoots-higher-overseas-with-$185.1m/

 

[Chewy]

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/intl/weekend/opening/

It's still going to be an uphill battle for $1 Billion. Avengers currently looks like it'll barely make it to $600 M, if at all. I also don't think $400 M domestic is a guarantee.

I do, however, think we'll see it break Spider-Man 3's $890 M to become the highest grossing Marvel movie ever, which is a feat unto itself.

600M is guaranteed. 650M looks likely too. 700M is the target to hope for.

 

[Iceman]

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/intl/weekend/opening/

It's still going to be an uphill battle for $1 Billion. Avengers currently looks like it'll barely make it to $600 M, if at all. I also don't think $400 M domestic is a guarantee.

I do, however, think we'll see it break Spider-Man 3's $890 M to become the highest grossing Marvel movie ever, which is a feat unto itself.

If you add in the huge missing markets from this weekend figure it would be well over $200m. From there you don't need a big multiplier to get to $600m. Especially as the reviews and WoM so far make it look like it will have decent legs.

 

[KangConquers]

If you add in the huge missing markets from this weekend figure it would be well over $200m. From there you don't need a big multiplier to get to $600m. Especially as the reviews and WoM so far make it look like it will have decent legs.

I think many people are exaggerating Avengers domestic legs. The last few years have been all about big openings and weak legs, ever since Spider-Man 3. Anyone predicting $500 M domestic for Avengers needs to lay off the pipe; the $350-400 M range is more likely.

If it makes in that range, it'll have to clear, not match $600 M foreign to guarantee $1 B. I know I'm splitting hairs right now, but I see it stopping in the low to mid-900 Ms.

 

[Chewy]

It's clearing 600M overseas easily. This is the same opening Pirates 4 had.

 

[KangConquers]

It's clearing 600M overseas easily. This is the same opening Pirates 4 had.

So what are you thinking for total gross?

 

[Chewy]

So what are you thinking for total gross range? $900 M-1.1 B?

Depends on domestic but 1B is looking pretty good

 

[paulogonza]

kangconquers you saw TA?, because in my country they broke record, and many people who never saw IM , CA, Thor or Hulk go to the theaters see avengers, the word of mouth is insane, no one dislike this movie here. the parameters you have i think not aplly for this movie, maybe i be wrong, but i think TA will do huge legs, is the kind of movie people will see many times.

 

[Iceman]

I think many people are exaggerating Avengers domestic legs. The last few years have been all about big openings and weak legs, ever since Spider-Man 3. Anyone predicting $500 M domestic for Avengers needs to lay off the pipe; the $350-400 M range is more likely.

If it makes in that range, it'll have to clear, not match $600 M foreign to guarantee $1 B. I know I'm splitting hairs right now, but I see it stopping in the low to mid-900 Ms.

What are they saying about Avengers' legs? Good reviews and WoM are undeniable at the moment and certainly better than the likes of Spidey 3. If the opening weekend is $160m, then $400m is only a 2.5 multiplier which should be achievable. $500m would be a massive outperformance but I'm not ruling anything out, especially before we find out what the OW will be. I agree though that the general trend is that the biggest films have become more top heavy in recent years.

 

[KangConquers]

What are they saying about Avengers' legs? Good reviews and WoM are undeniable at the moment and certainly better than the likes of Spidey 3. If the opening weekend is $160m, then $400m is only a 2.5 multiplier which should be achievable. $500m would be a massive outperformance but I'm not ruling anything out, especially before we find out what the OW will be. I agree though that the general trend is that the biggest films have become more top heavy in recent years.

People are talking casually about Avengers repeating #1 3-4 weeks in a row like it's a sealed deal. It will beat Dark Shadows with ease, but I'm not sure it'll have the legs to beat Battleship the following weekend, and it will definitely go down to MIB III.

 

[Iceman]

People are talking casually about Avengers repeating #1 3-4 weeks in a row like it's a sealed deal. It will beat Dark Shadows with ease, but I'm not sure it'll have the legs to beat Battleship the following weekend, and it will definitely go down to MIB III.

There is a chance of failure but I think it has a good shot of finishing no.1 week 3. Week 4 seems a stretch too far. MiB is going to have a minimum audience no matter how bad it is. No films except Avatar have made even $30m in their 4th weekend.

 

[Superhero 101]

I think it can hit 650 overseas and 350-400 domestically

 

[Shadowlord X]

Honestly arguing at this time is pointless. When you extrapolate (which may or may not be correct) from a $185 million opening weekend in 70% of the overseas territories then this works out at $264 million. This is HUGE. Secondly we don't know at this point what kind of legs (= multiplier) the movie will have.

This time next week is when we will have a really good idea of what's going on.

 

[kedrell]

I think many people are exaggerating Avengers domestic legs. The last few years have been all about big openings and weak legs, ever since Spider-Man 3. Anyone predicting $500 M domestic for Avengers needs to lay off the pipe; the $350-400 M range is more likely.

If it makes in that range, it'll have to clear, not match $600 M foreign to guarantee $1 B. I know I'm splitting hairs right now, but I see it stopping in the low to mid-900 Ms.

Good legs these days domesticly for huge blockbusters means getting around a 3X multiplier. With as strong a reviews as this is getting and overseas WOM looking as strong as it does I fully expect TA to get to a 3.0X multiplier if not slightly more. Now considering it has an excellent shot at the OW record domestic then $400M(at least) seems to be likely rather than any kind of strech. $500M is a tougher nut to crack but that's hardly off the table as well.

You seem to be deliberately guessing low.

 

[KangConquers]

Good legs these days domesticly for huge blockbusters means getting around a 3X multiplier. With as strong a reviews as this is getting and overseas WOM looking as strong as it does I fully expect TA to get to a 3.0X multiplier if not slightly more. Now considering it has an excellent shot at the OW record domestic then $400M(at least) seems to be likely rather than any kind of strech. $500M is a tougher nut to crack but that's hardly off the table as well.

You seem to be deliberately guessing low.

No movie has managed $400 M domestic since Toy Story 3. With the current economy, and the growing foreign industry, films are more likely to reach $600-700 M foreign than $400 M domestic.

 

[flickchick85]

I think TA has a very good chance of cracking $400m domestic. The Hunger Games is coming damn close, and the only thing that's holding it back, imo, is the fact that the premise was so inappropriate for the younger kids. Now that TA is tracking to open even bigger than that one, considering the fact that parents will feel much more comfortable taking their kids to TA, I'll be surprised if it doesn't hit $400m at this point. And if it does, that will definitely be able to get it to a billion worldwide.

 

[Shadowlord X]

Honestly arguing at this time is pointless. When you extrapolate (which may or may not be correct) from a $185 million opening weekend in 70% of the overseas territories then this works out at $264 million. This is HUGE. Secondly we don't know at this point what kind of legs (= multiplier) the movie will have.

This time next week is when we will have a really good idea of what's going on.

Ahem.

 

[KangConquers]

Ahem.

True. Next Monday, we will know.

 

[Tony Stark]

People are talking casually about Avengers repeating #1 3-4 weeks in a row like it's a sealed deal. It will beat Dark Shadows with ease, but I'm not sure it'll have the legs to beat Battleship the following weekend, and it will definitely go down to MIB III.

No one is saying it will be with ease. We are saying if any film can do it, it's this one, with the weak May lineup, and the fan excitement and good reviews.

To give you an example of why this doesn't happen in May:

2002 Spider-man 1 - Week 3 went up against Attack of the Clones
2003 X2 - Week 3 went against Matrix Reloaded
2004 Van Helsing - faced Troy and Shrek 2 in following weeks
2005 weakest May first weekend - Kingdom of Heaven flopped with 20m open, Revenge of the Sith was the big one this year in May.
2006 - MI 3 - faced Poseiden, DaVinci Code and X-men 3 in following weeks
2007 - Spider-man 3 - faced Shrek the 3rd and POTC:AWE in weeks 3 and 4
2008 - Iron Man - faced Chronicles of Narnia and Indy 4 in weeks 3 and 4
2009 - X-men Origins - faced Star Trek, Angels and Demons and Terminator Salvation
2010 - Iron Man 2 - faced Shrek 4, in week 3, and Prince of Persia, Sex in the City 2 in week 4
2011 - Thor - faced POTC 4, Kung Fu Panda 2, Hangover 2 and suprise hit Brides Maid's that started below Thor in week 2 but had great WOM.

So as you can see, Avengers will have a bigger open than any of these films, AND it has far weaker competition. Will it be hard? Yes, but if it's going to happen this will probably be the year.

However it doesn't have to be no 1 for 4 weeks to pass 350-400 M.

 

[kedrell]

No movie has managed $400 M domestic since Toy Story 3. With the current economy, and the growing foreign industry, films are more likely to reach $600-700 M foreign than $400 M domestic.

That was all of 2 years ago. Not much has changed. Actually, for a long time $400M or better movies would only come out once every two years on average.

 

[kedrell]

Lethal Weapon 3 back in 1992 was the last time any May opener held #1 for 3 weekends in a row and had all those 3 weekends be solely confined within the month of May(as opposed to spilling over into June).

 

[flickchick85]

Lol, I just realized Avengers already trounced Battleship's entire international cume in 5 days, even though it's been released in far fewer countries so far. Maybe I have been overestimating that one's potential to dent this movie's box office.

 

[kedrell]

I think TA's 2nd weekend can surpass DS's OW by about $25M or so and 3rd weekend beat Battleship's OW by $10M or so.