The Rebooted "Keep Hope Alive" (that the rights can revert back to Marvel) Thread - - - - Part 13

[Dark Raven]

So ... Fox just announced a Multiple Man, starring James Franco.
Please, Disney. Buy them!!!

Maybe they'll all be multiple versions of James Franco looking like this?

 

[babykhris]

Here’s the thing no one seems to be getting. All these X-Men films and casting announcements makes me feel FOX has given up on Fantastic Four,so when we hear that the rights reverted back to Marvel Fox excuse can be they had too much on their plate.

 

[Big Bang]

Here’s the thing no one seems to be getting. All these X-Men films and casting announcements makes me feel FOX has given up on Fantastic Four,so when we hear that the rights reverted back to Marvel Fox excuse can be they had too much on their plate.

Part of the activity we are seeing is to drum up a price. Fox knows X-Men related properties have a price tag, whereas they've cratered anything FF related.

Now, with Comcast and Verizon expressing interest, they know they can play the game even more.

 

[DyfeddRex]

I hate to say this, but as more comes out, and it appears that the House of Mouse made the initial approach, I'm betting it was only for those IP's most valuable to the Diz. Let's face it, they don't need a convoluted studio system, theirs is already almost too much to rule over.

I'm betting now that the deal was for SW Ep4, the Marvel characters, maybe even only the FF package for now) and Avatar. Two billion dollar bundles for sure (SW/Avatar) and the ticking time bombs that are the jumbled mess of the Mutant worlds and the heavily damaged by Fox FF rights. Deadpool is sort of some separate world, and yet, the Mutant tie shows it is the one thing they think they deserve, another Billion dollar franchise.

Yet, this year, we have yet to see such a franchise from Marvel Studios. GotGv2 failed to make a billion despite the hype, Spidey faltered short, and we still need to see the impact of JL on Thor to know if the God of Thunder will leave the world 'thunderstruck' at the WWBO. Deadpool might do it, even without China. But who knows? Only Uatu and Eternity.

Now, with others wanting those four bundles, just to spite the rodent they fear, I think the Mouse has to decide, is the Murdoch counter-offer, of them getting a stake, probably a big one, in the Mouse worth it? Or do they need to throw down one hell of a counter-offer in pure cash, saying "nope, just the IP we want, at this price" and pray the auctioning of Fox, which is going to be very heavy in the regulatory triggers, finally makes them realize they'll need the cash on their (Fox's) side, just to get through what they can.

 

[Big Bang]

I hate to say this, but as more comes out, and it appears that the House of Mouse made the initial approach, I'm betting it was only for those IP's most valuable to the Diz. Let's face it, they don't need a convoluted studio system, theirs is already almost too much to rule over.

I'm betting now that the deal was for SW Ep4, the Marvel characters, maybe even only the FF package for now) and Avatar. Two billion dollar bundles for sure (SW/Avatar) and the ticking time bombs that are the jumbled mess of the Mutant worlds and the heavily damaged by Fox FF rights. Deadpool is sort of some separate world, and yet, the Mutant tie shows it is the one thing they think they deserve, another Billion dollar franchise.

Yet, this year, we have yet to see such a franchise from Marvel Studios. GotGv2 failed to make a billion despite the hype, Spidey faltered short, and we still need to see the impact of JL on Thor to know if the God of Thunder will leave the world 'thunderstruck' at the WWBO. Deadpool might do it, even without China. But who knows? Only Uatu and Eternity.

Now, with others wanting those four bundles, just to spite the rodent they fear, I think the Mouse has to decide, is the Murdoch counter-offer, of them getting a stake, probably a big one, in the Mouse worth it? Or do they need to throw down one hell of a counter-offer in pure cash, saying "nope, just the IP we want, at this price" and pray the auctioning of Fox, which is going to be very heavy in the regulatory triggers, finally makes them realize they'll need the cash on their (Fox's) side, just to get through what they can.

X-Men & FF rights are priority #1. Second would be Avatar. Third whatever other properties they think they would fit well.

They are going to have to pay a premium if they want it all. They can't escape that now.

 

[DyfeddRex]

Gotta disagree, the easiest part would be SW Ep 4, so it would be #1, Figure the marvel bundles as separate, then the asking price from Fox would determine which is #2 or #4, Avatar, to back up the park deal, would need to be #3.

As much as we love our heroes, SW has greater GA resonance. So, getting those Ep4 ANH rights back is Numero Uno, those are making the billion, each time.
And, money talks, failure walks. FF rights are probably the easiest to get Fox to part with though, given how toxic even the rabid Craptastic fanboys have turned on Fox for it. Or imploded into despair at how the real fanboys were right.

The Mouse is all about the money. While the MCU is a cash cow, it is not that big ka-ching moment every year now. At least, not unless we find another case of lightning in a bottle, like Avengers, CW, or AoU's box office despite failing the fan boys. (Though Ultron's head in spidey gave me real hope for a moment that it would talk, when the eyes flickered).

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

I think that if Fox sells in any form, Disney will get, at the very least, X-Men/FF and Star Wars. Avatar might be up for grabs, but other studios are going to have limited interest in Star Wars or X-Men/FF because of the limitations.

Things like Alien and Planet of the Apes ... and Avatar will be more attractive to other studios because they will have complete creative freedom plus merchandising etc.

If Disney wants Avatar (and I'm sure they do) they may have to pay quite a bit for that, but I think they'll be able to get the other pieces relatively easily and inexpensively.

 

[ADollarADay]

I think that if Fox sells in any form, Disney will get, at the very least, X-Men/FF and Star Wars. Avatar might be up for grabs, but other studios are going to have limited interest in Star Wars or X-Men/FF because of the limitations.

Things like Alien and Planet of the Apes ... and Avatar will be more attractive to other studios because they will have complete creative freedom plus merchandising etc.

If Disney wants Avatar (and I'm sure they do) they may have to pay quite a bit for that, but I think they'll be able to get the other pieces relatively easily and inexpensively.

Avatar also has restraints which would hurt its appeal to Comcast a bit. Disney has WW theme park rights on the franchise long term. I heard in perpetuity, but that may or may not be the case. Avatar is also interesting because it has potential to be as big as Harry Potter/MCU (I'm not sure about SW big, that's a different animal altogether) in terms of brand awareness and value, but does Fox own it and control it like Disney does Star Wars? Or is it like Harry Potter and WB where WB can't create new movies and shows on the lore until JK Rowling sells it to them? Warner has exclusivity on the movies/shows and JK can't sell it to another studio, but they don't have the creative freedom Disney does with SW.

I did some research and I couldn't find a definite answer, but Fox does own at least co ownership of the IP.

 

[wobbly]

Not sure Alien or the Apes are that big a draw after the last films in those entries. For the former Covenant was a bit of a disappointing mess (3rd prequel a charm perhaps?), and with the latter 'War' kinda closed out the story. I guess they could have a far future one next time with Astronaut Taylor coming back (they did tease that in the 1st one) but it wont have the shock value of the Statue of Liberty ending, and I don't know if basically remaking the original Heston classic (again) would be a big draw. Each of the new Apes films has diminished in returns as well.

Avatar is the biggest and best bet of the none Marvel or Star Wars incentives Fox holds as far as movies goes. Disney would certainly be after that given they have the theme park thing as well.

 

[VenomsMom]

Disney would love to reboot the Home Alone franchise. One of their Disney channel kids to star.

 

[Zarex]

The worst possible outcome for those wanting all the Marvel characters under the MCU is for Comcast to come out of this with the FOX entertainment assets. If they get the FF, X-Men and Star Wars ANH they ain't going anywhere.

What may make sense is for the Mouse to team up with Verizon, with the Mouse stripping away the franchises they want and Verizon keeping the cable networks, Hulu, and the TV and film production studios.

The problem would be that 21st Century FOX doesn't have that many profitable franchises without the Marvel licensed, but perhaps some cofinancing arrangement could be agreed upon.

 

[DyfeddRex]

Fox leaking this may have either forced Disney's hand, or turned them off, and we won't know until there is some announcement, one way or another.

The main thing we have learned is that maybe we sometimes joggle the elbows of Fiege at the wrong moment. I worry that the deal was to be secret, and this publicity shot down their plans, or damaged something they had going. But still, with the way Legion played out, how Gifted is going, it still gives us the right to "Keep the Hope Alive", but maybe ask the big sites to ease back a bit, and let them do their job, then break the news, stop trying to scoop each other by trying to get one of the movers to break the silence needed to make, then seal a deal.

 

[ADollarADay]

The worst possible outcome for those wanting all the Marvel characters under the MCU is for Comcast to come out of this with the FOX entertainment assets. If they get the FF, X-Men and Star Wars ANH they ain't going anywhere.

What may make sense is for the Mouse to team up with Verizon, with the Mouse stripping away the franchises they want and Verizon keeping the cable networks, Hulu, and the TV and film production studios.

The problem would be that 21st Century FOX doesn't have that many profitable franchises without the Marvel licensed, but perhaps some cofinancing arrangement could be agreed upon.

Disney gets Avatar, XMen, FF, SW:ANH, Home Alone, National Geographic
Verizon gets Star, Sky, 30% of Hulu, legacy movies and shows, and everything else

Cheaper and cleaner, but Verizon would get the crown jewels here.

But also..... Comcast could do the same with Verizon to ensure they win the bid.

A fire sale from Fox would work best for Disney as they have ties with the first 4 I mentioned above (therefore making it easier for Disney to buy them), and they could put a good bid to Home Alone, NG, and anything else they may be interested in.

 

[wobbly]

Didn't Comcast have to settle with the DOJ/FCC when they acquired NBC/Universal? If that raised Antitrust issues I'd think trying to get Fox would too?

 

[Zarex]

Disney gets Avatar, XMen, FF, SW:ANH, Home Alone, National Geographic
Verizon gets Star, Sky, 30% of Hulu, legacy movies and shows, and everything else

Done and done. Let's sign the papers!

But also..... Comcast could do the same with Verizon to ensure they win the bid.

It's possible, but those two are competitors on the distribution end and would probably want the same goodies out of the deal. As you've shown, a joint Verizon-Disney bid is a lot easier to structure.

 

[ADollarADay]

Done and done. Let's sign the papers!




It's possible, but those two are competitors on the distribution end and would probably want the same goodies out of the deal. As you've shown, a joint Verizon-Disney bid is a lot easier to structure.

If the Murdochs are playing hardball and want all stock or nothing, then a joint bid might be the best option for both companies. Maybe the only option.

 

[Orba]

I think that if Fox sells in any form, Disney will get, at the very least, X-Men/FF and Star Wars. Avatar might be up for grabs, but other studios are going to have limited interest in Star Wars or X-Men/FF because of the limitations.

Things like Alien and Planet of the Apes ... and Avatar will be more attractive to other studios because they will have complete creative freedom plus merchandising etc.

If Disney wants Avatar (and I'm sure they do) they may have to pay quite a bit for that, but I think they'll be able to get the other pieces relatively easily and inexpensively.

I agree that even if Fox were to sell the studio we would probably still see a return of the Marvel rights and Star Wars. If Fox is selling the studio they will be looking for the best money they can get and those rights have the highest value to Disney. Fox have Star Wars, but nearly all of those will be going to Disney in a few years no matter what happens so its value is not that high for the likes of Comcast. Then there are the Marvel rights which include no merchandising control and a requirement that new films have to be made regularly in order to retain control.

So for Comcast their value is far less than their value to Disney. The value those rights add to the value of the studio as a whole is less than their potential value in a side deal with Disney.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

I agree that even if Fox were to sell the studio we would probably still see a return of the Marvel rights and Star Wars. If Fox is selling the studio they will be looking for the best money they can get and those rights have the highest value to Disney. Fox have Star Wars, but nearly all of those will be going to Disney in a few years no matter what happens so its value is not that high for the likes of Comcast. Then there are the Marvel rights which include no merchandising control and a requirement that new films have to be made regularly in order to retain control.

So for Comcast their value is far less than their value to Disney. The value those rights add to the value of the studio as a whole is less than their potential value in a side deal with Disney.

Bottom line for me is any move is good. Imagine two weeks ago we found out Universal (Comcast) might buy Fox. Great! Fantastic! They've been more reasonable regarding working with Disney than Fox has, so that opens up some doors.

Nothing could possibly be as bad as the status quo.

 

[ADollarADay]

Bottom line for me is any move is good. Imagine two weeks ago we found out Universal (Comcast) might buy Fox. Great! Fantastic! They've been more reasonable regarding working with Disney than Fox has, so that opens up some doors.

Nothing could possibly be as bad as the status quo.

How have they been more reasonable?

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

How have they been more reasonable?

They've recognized that Marvel is better at making Marvel films than they are and they've allowed them to do that (with reasonable restrictions).

And even when they made their own Hulk film, they invested a big budget and hired a talented director and tried to do it right.

They don't have Fox's history of making cheap, crap films just to keep the rights, and I suspect that if they end up with the Marvel rights, they will try to work a Sony-type deal rather than stubbornly forging ahead and making cheap films that bear no resemblance to the comics.

I just saw a film that heavily featured the Hulk on-screen interacting with other Marvel characters. I would be thrilled if I could get something similar with the FF. I suspect both sides will have learned from the Hulk deal and a new deal would make more sense for both sides, but I don't have any reason to believe Universal is as stubborn and foolish as Fox when it comes to Marvel films.

 

[ADollarADay]

They've recognized that Marvel is better at making Marvel films than they are and they've allowed them to do that (with reasonable restrictions).

And even when they made their own Hulk film, they invested a big budget and hired a talented director and tried to do it right.

They don't have Fox's history of making cheap, crap films just to keep the rights, and I suspect that if they end up with the Marvel rights, they will try to work a Sony-type deal rather than stubbornly forging ahead and making cheap films that bear no resemblance to the comics.

I just saw a film that heavily featured the Hulk on-screen interacting with other Marvel characters. I would be thrilled if I could get something similar with the FF. I suspect both sides will have learned from the Hulk deal and a new deal would make more sense for both sides, but I don't have any reason to believe Universal is as stubborn and foolish as Fox when it comes to Marvel films.

I disagree with you here.

Comcast is not allowing Marvel to do anything. They just don't have a say on what Marvel can do with Hulk. Marvel could make a solo Hulk movie, but Universal would have the right to distribute it. Apparently they don't want to sell that. Marvel can put him in ensemble movies and there's nothing Comcast can say or do about it.

Comcast is just as stubborn, if not more so, than Fox. Look at the theme park situation in Orlando for proof. We have two off the shelf rides that suck, but they won't replace or remove them because they will lose the license. They tried to do this monster universe thing that was horrible. They would undoubtedly try it again with as little input from Marvel/Disney as possible.

Fox also "tried" by hiring talented actors and - sometimes - talented directors. Fant4stic had talented actors. MBJ, Miles Teller, Kate Mara are talented individuals. Doesn't excuse the crap we got. Same with TIH and, especially, Ang Lee's Hulk.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

I disagree with you here.

Comcast is not allowing Marvel to do anything. They just don't have a say on what Marvel can do with Hulk. Marvel could make a solo Hulk movie, but Universal would have the right to distribute it. Apparently they don't want to sell that. Marvel can put him in ensemble movies and there's nothing Comcast can say or do about it.

Comcast is just as stubborn, if not more so, than Fox. Look at the theme park situation in Orlando for proof. We have two off the shelf rides that suck, but they won't replace or remove them because they will lose the license. They tried to do this monster universe thing that was horrible. They would undoubtedly try it again with as little input from Marvel/Disney as possible.

Fox also "tried" by hiring talented actors and - sometimes - talented directors. Fant4stic had talented actors. MBJ, Miles Teller, Kate Mara are talented individuals. Doesn't excuse the crap we got. Same with TIH and, especially, Ang Lee's Hulk.

The theme parks are a very different situation. I don't think they're being unreasonable at all in not tearing down their existing rides and turning the rights over to Disney (they still have Dudley Do Right's Ripsaw falls as well). Once amusement parks build rides, they tend to keep those rides for a long time. I would do the exact same thing if I were in Universal's position.

And if it has the added benefit of restricting a competitor down the road from building rides themselves... that's just icing on the cake.

Universal spent more in 2003 dollars on their Hulk film than Fox has spent on any of their FF films, and, while the end result wasn't great, they did earn a 61% on Rotten Tomatoes vs. FF's best effort at 37%.

And regarding the current situation with the Hulk, I think it's Disney, not Universal who is being unreasonable. Universal made a reasonable deal with them, Disney found a loophole and they're exploiting it.

Do I believe Universal is more reasonable than Fox when it comes to understanding what makes good Marvel films and being willing to work with Disney toward that end? Absolutely. 100 times yes and after what I've seen Fox do with Fantastic Four, you won't convince me anybody would be less reasonable than Fox.

 

[Big Bang]

I disagree with you here.

Comcast is not allowing Marvel to do anything. They just don't have a say on what Marvel can do with Hulk. Marvel could make a solo Hulk movie, but Universal would have the right to distribute it. Apparently they don't want to sell that. Marvel can put him in ensemble movies and there's nothing Comcast can say or do about it.

Comcast is just as stubborn, if not more so, than Fox. Look at the theme park situation in Orlando for proof. We have two off the shelf rides that suck, but they won't replace or remove them because they will lose the license. They tried to do this monster universe thing that was horrible. They would undoubtedly try it again with as little input from Marvel/Disney as possible.

Fox also "tried" by hiring talented actors and - sometimes - talented directors. Fant4stic had talented actors. MBJ, Miles Teller, Kate Mara are talented individuals. Doesn't excuse the crap we got. Same with TIH and, especially, Ang Lee's Hulk.

TIH could have been so much better had Universal not meddled as much as hey did with the film. Some of the film's shortfalls can be attributed to Marvel Studios but most of it squarely falls on Universal.

Absolutely correct on the theme park rights. Marvel at "Islands of Adventure" is so generic it almost feels half-assed. The rides are only so-so at best. On top of that, they can only use the 90's renditions of the characters. Nor do they have any room for current expansion in the immediate vicinity, and even if they did any changes require Marvel's approval. So good luck there. Thankfully, any characters not currently in use they have the right of first refusal, and since they don't have space to use those they revert back to Disney. Hence why Dr. Strange and the Guardians of the Galaxy are at Walt Disney World. I think the same is said of the rest of the characters as well, such as Captain Marvel. Disney also can't use the "Marvel" brand at WDW. What may break the camel's back in regards to the Marvel rights is Universal's new project over by Lockheed Martin where they've acquired >500 acres (and going for more). The WB+DC theme park rights are going to expire at Six Flags in <10 years, so in conjunction to their new humongous new park (which is going to take about as much time to finish acquiring real estate and develop between now and when those rights expire), they will very likely make a play for those rights to use at their new park, and thus free the Marvel rights up. Pull up Orlando on Google Maps sometime and pan to where Lockheed Martin is. The scale of the land is such that most of Disney's own parks would fit in the area. So they obviously have big plans.

Maybe, just maybe, if Universal gets Fox they'll let the production rights fall back to Marvel, but keep the distribution rights. Still not a scenario we want though, but at least a halfway point.

So much in play now. At least it isn't boring.

 

[ADollarADay]

The theme parks are a very different situation. I don't think they're being unreasonable at all in not tearing down their existing rides and turning the rights over to Disney (they still have Dudley Do Right's Ripsaw falls as well). Once amusement parks build rides, they tend to keep those rides for a long time. I would do the exact same thing if I were in Universal's position.

And if it has the added benefit of restricting a competitor down the road from building rides themselves... that's just icing on the cake.

Universal spent more in 2003 dollars on their Hulk film than Fox has spent on any of their FF films, and, while the end result wasn't great, they did earn a 61% on Rotten Tomatoes vs. FF's best effort at 37%.

And regarding the current situation with the Hulk, I think it's Disney, not Universal who is being unreasonable. Universal made a reasonable deal with them, Disney found a loophole and they're exploiting it.

Do I believe Universal is more reasonable than Fox when it comes to understanding what makes good Marvel films and being willing to work with Disney toward that end? Absolutely. 100 times yes and after what I've seen Fox do with Fantastic Four, you won't convince me anybody would be less reasonable than Fox.

Let's agree to disagree then.

TIH could have been so much better had Universal not meddled as much as hey did with the film. Some of the film's shortfalls can be attributed to Marvel Studios but most of it squarely falls on Universal.

Absolutely correct on the theme park rights. Marvel at "Islands of Adventure" is so generic it almost feels half-assed. The rides are only so-so at best. On top of that, they can only use the 90's renditions of the characters. Nor do they have any room for current expansion in the immediate vicinity, and even if they did any changes require Marvel's approval. So good luck there. Thankfully, any characters not currently in use they have the right of first refusal, and since they don't have space to use those they revert back to Disney. Hence why Dr. Strange and the Guardians of the Galaxy are at Walt Disney World. I think the same is said of the rest of the characters as well, such as Captain Marvel. Disney also can't use the "Marvel" brand at WDW. What may break the camel's back in regards to the Marvel rights is Universal's new project over by Lockheed Martin where they've acquired >500 acres (and going for more). The WB+DC theme park rights are going to expire at Six Flags in <10 years, so in conjunction to their new humongous new park (which is going to take about as much time to finish acquiring real estate and develop between now and when those rights expire), they will very likely make a play for those rights to use at their new park, and thus free the Marvel rights up. Pull up Orlando on Google Maps sometime and pan to where Lockheed Martin is. The scale of the land is such that most of Disney's own parks would fit in the area. So they obviously have big plans.

Maybe, just maybe, if Universal gets Fox they'll let the production rights fall back to Marvel, but keep the distribution rights. Still not a scenario we want though, but at least a halfway point.

So much in play now. At least it isn't boring.

I think at that time they will be more worried about renewing HP's expiring rights. Plus ATT might want to venture into this realm as well. However, that piece of land would be for a 3rd park, CMCSA would still have no reason to give up the Marvel rights since keeping an old piece of outdated land is all it takes to keep it.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

Let's agree to disagree then.

Gladly. Something's happening. A year from now Fox will no longer have a stranglehold on FF and I couldn't be more thrilled.t: