The Rebooted "Keep Hope Alive" (that the rights can revert back to Marvel) Thread - - - - - - - - - Part 18

[Dark Raven]

JW almost looks like a rework of the lost world sequel to me.


At this point fans are so excited about a MCU FF possibility I don't think anyone would ever accept a FF made by any other studio at all even if it were decent.

Except for the FFINO defenders who wanted to see Fant4stic 10 times.

 

[Marvel united]

5 days, guys

 

[Big Bang]

Box office revenue is nothing. Toys, T-Shirts, home video distribution, advertising on commercial television airings, increased subscriptions to streaming services etc. etc. etc. That's where the real money is.

More broadly, hence why Star Wars is in very real trouble.

Bad News - Jurassic World Fallen Kingdom reviews aren't looking good, and that could put more pressure on Comcast to buy Fox to fill in with other franchises.

Good News - if it doesn't do well at the box office, that will reduce the cash coming in for now and the future and make it more difficult/ill-advised for Comcast to make a big purchase.

If it drags on Comcast's bottom line, that will put pressure on their borrowing power for any bid for sure. Kind of a catch-22 though as it highlights exactly why they need to diversify their entertainment offerings.

5 days, guys

and now we have a time. Ruling to be announced on 6/12 @ 4PM EDT.

 

[ADollarADay]

This goes back to what Big Bang and I were talking a couple of days ago regarding Sky and the SE market:

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/06/disney-executive-mahesh-samat-on-south-asia-and-streaming.html

India, is one of Disney's largest markets in South Asia, and a company executive said he remains "very optimistic" even as the "whole digital landscape is changing."

More broadly, hence why Star Wars is in very real trouble.

I watched Solo yesterday and it was actually good save for a couple of things that have plagued every SW movie since TFA. I am wishing for a couple of sequels, but it's pretty obvious that the backlash is real and Iger/Disney need to take that very seriously.

 

[Big Bang]

This goes back to what Big Bang and I were talking a couple of days ago regarding Sky and the SE market:

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/06/disney-executive-mahesh-samat-on-south-asia-and-streaming.html

Interesting hints in the article about where Disney intends to go too. Combined with Star, we're looking at very potent (positively) situation.

I watched Solo yesterday and it was actually good save for a couple of things that have plagued every SW movie since TFA. I am wishing for a couple of sequels, but it's pretty obvious that the backlash is real and Iger/Disney need to take that very seriously.

Even if we excise the films out of the equations, a very severe issue still exists. That being the merchandise continuing to rot at retail in multiple countries.

 

[Spider-Fan]

Bad reviews for JW2 won't mean anything if it grosses anything close to JW. Reviews are overrated, it is all about the $$$ for these movies.

 

[Marvel united]

More broadly, hence why Star Wars is in very real trouble.

If it drags on Comcast's bottom line, that will put pressure on their borrowing power for any bid for sure. Kind of a catch-22 though as it highlights exactly why they need to diversify their entertainment offerings.

and now we have a time. Ruling to be announced on 6/12 @ 4PM EDT.

I'm so nervous about this.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

Bad reviews for JW2 won't mean anything if it grosses anything close to JW. Reviews are overrated, it is all about the $$$ for these movies.

I can't speak for most people, but the trailer didn't do much for me and after reading some reviews, I won't bother going. I've seen all the previous JP/JW films on opening weekend in the theaters, but not this one. Better reviews probably would have gotten me to the theater.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

... Same with Solo. Han Solo is my favorite character, and I've seen all the other Star Wars films in theaters, but the reviews convinced me to not bother going. I'll buy it on Vudu, but won't see it in the theater.

 

[Bach]

... Same with Solo. Han Solo is my favorite character, and I've seen all the other Star Wars films in theaters, but the reviews convinced me to not bother going. I'll buy it on Vudu, but won't see it in the theater.

Same here. Reviews do have effect on the BO to some degree.

 

[Spider-Fan]

Same here. Reviews do have effect on the BO to some degree.

Explain Transformers sequels having 2 billion dollar films

Reviews are overrated. They mean something to guys like us, but nothing to the average person.

 

[Zarex]

Explain Transformers sequels having 2 billion dollar films

Reviews are overrated. They mean something to guys like us, but nothing to the average person.

Transformers is one of the precious few (only?) mega-franchises that has managed to thrive at the BO despite rotten reviews. And even that sole example has been cratering, especially in regards to domestic returns.

Reviews matter. A lot.

 

[Big Bang]

Transformers is one of the precious few (only?) mega-franchises that has managed to thrive at the BO despite rotten reviews. And even that sole example has been cratering, especially in regards to domestic returns.

Reviews matter. A lot.

Transformers is a sort of lowest common denominator type of film. Little substance, lots of explosions. Probably its one saving grace is that they try to appeal as much as they do to the China market, and well as the rest of the world.

Which is unfortunate since it was one of my favorite franchises from the 80's.

 

[Spider-Fan]

Transformers is one of the precious few (only?) mega-franchises that has managed to thrive at the BO despite rotten reviews. And even that sole example has been cratering, especially in regards to domestic returns.

Reviews matter. A lot.

There are many examples of poorly reviewed movies doing well. Fifty Shades got 3 films. Reviews don't matter

 

[Zarex]

There are many examples of poorly reviewed movies doing well. Fifty Shades got 3 films. Reviews don't matter

Those few examples are almost always flicks that feast on the good will of their built in fan base and pay for their bad work in subsequent installment. We've seen it recently with Fifty Shades, TMNT, Justice League and (eventually) Transformers.

 

[Spider-Fan]

Those few examples are almost always flicks that feast on the good will of their built in fan base and pay for their bad work in subsequent installment. We've seen it recently with Fifty Shades, TMNT, Justice League and (eventually) Transformers.

If reviews mattered, why are Best Picture nominated Oscar films rarely amongst the highest grossing films of the year? They normally are up there in reviews, so shouldnt't that matter if reviews sell? Further, there are not only a small few examples. There are PLENTY of examples. What built in fanbase did Greatest Showman have (it has a 58% RT)?

 

[Deck Rickard]

I think saying reviews don’t matter is too broad of a statement. I would agree that we overrate their importance but I know plenty of more casual movie fans who will skip a movie if they hear that it’s been panned.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

‘Junk films’ (Fifty Shades if Gray, Adam Sandler films, Fast and the Furious etc.), can make money with bad reviews because they cater to a specific audience that doesn’t care about reviews. High-brow films won’t make huge numbers even with great reviews because they only appeal to a small potential market.

But when it comes to large-investment, broadly-marketed films, like Jurrasic World or Solo, reviews are key. Those films need to appeal to the meaty part of the bell curve to be succesful, and if the film can’t hit that solid part of the curve because of mediocre reviews, it won’t be a success. Junk films don’t need to worry as much about that because their specific audience will show up regardless and studios don’t have as much invested.

 

[Zarex]

If reviews mattered, why are Best Picture nominated Oscar films rarely amongst the highest grossing films of the year? They normally are up there in reviews, so shouldnt't that matter if reviews sell?,

Because reviews aren't the only thing that drives BO grosses.

Further, there are not only a small few examples. There are PLENTY of examples. What built in fanbase did Greatest Showman have (it has a 58% RT)?

Greatest Showman did fine, but it wasn't exactly a mega hit. And just think how the well reviewed version would have performed!

 

[Big Bang]

I was worried that the fall of Star Wars might be a drag on Disney's stock and have a detrimental effect on the potential upcoming war with Comcast for Fox.

Seems the universe might be trying to head this off.

https://screenrant.com/star-wars-kathleen-kennedy-lucasfilm-exit/

 

[Detective Conan]

A Look at the Various Ways the AT&T-Time Warner Ruling Could Turn Out

After a six-week trial, June 12 will mark the date when a federal judge in Washington is scheduled to make a huge reveal that could very well shape the future direction of the media, technology and entertainment industries.
Richard J. Leon selected a specific time — 4 p.m. EDT — to announce his decision in U.S. v. AT&T Inc. et al, the case that the Justice Department filed to stop the combination of AT&T with Time Warner.
The case undoubtedly will impact future deals, including The Walt Disney Co.’s proposed acquisition of Fox’s assets and Comcast’s potential counteroffer. There also is the ongoing drama over a CBS-Viacom reunion, and speculation that Verizon is looking for a content giant.
“The [Wall Street] consensus is that AT&T has an 80% chance of winning,” says Craig Moffett of research firm MoffettNathanson. “I’m not in the consensus. I think it’s a coin flip. Because of that, I would caution against looking at this as a binary yes-or-no decision. A lot depends not only on what the judge says but how he says it. There will be a lot of important nuance in the verdict itself.”



The decision could go a number of ways:
Scenario: AT&T wins. If Leon were to rule that the merger can proceed as is, it would be a relief to the companies, which had set a deadline of June 21 to complete their deal.
With one of the great uncertainties in the market lifted, it also would surely bolster media-merger mania. Some analysts say that the prediction of an AT&T win is a reason why Comcast is so bullish about putting in a bid for Fox assets, as such a transaction would otherwise raise some of the same questions that concerned the Justice Department in its review of the AT&T-Time Warner deal.
Moffett predicts that if AT&T wins, Comcast will formalize its offer for Fox’s assets. If the judge places no conditions on the AT&T-Time Warner merger, he says, “You could see a real wave of verticalization, where Verizon and Charter look at whether they need to own their own media assets.”

You could see a real wave of verticalization, where Verizon and Charter look at whether they need to own their own media assets.”
Craig Moffett, MoffettNathanson
​

Analyst John Hodulik of UBS notes that if the decision is broadly written, giving weight to the argument that traditional media companies are losing market power as viewers migrate to online video, “that would be a green light for more rapid consolidation in the media and telco space.”
Scenario: AT&T wins, but the Justice Department appeals. There has been some sense that the DOJ is seriously considering an appeal, should it lose, based on what has been said in court filings and in talks with sources close to the case. Much will probably depend on how definitive Leon’s ruling is.
Does that mean further delay for AT&T-Time Warner?
Hodulik says he thinks “they close the deal right away, [even if] the DOJ asks for an appeal or stay. AT&T has said that within a matter of days they’re going to move ahead.” He also believes a deal would provide a lift to AT&T stock — with the Time Warner acquisition being 7% to 8% accretive to AT&T earnings per share.
If there is an appeal and a judge grants a stay to prevent the merger from going forward, attention will be placed on
what AT&T and Time Warner say about their continued commitment to the combination.



“If there’s a stay, this could wind up in legal limbo for several months,” says Barton Crockett, senior analyst at B. Riley FBR. AT&T and Time Warner “could still try to merge, and the DOJ could sue. It’s 100% dependent on which way the judge goes, not just in the decision but the setup for an appeal.”
He adds that an AT&T win could convince tech giants like Google, Facebook, Apple and Amazon to make moves on content conglomerates.
There also is the possibility that Leon allows the transaction but with conditions, namely that AT&T agree to some kind of arbitration in carriage disputes with distribution rivals.
“If the government loses, there might be more boldness on the part of dealmakers to move forward, but the government isn’t going to jettison all of its concerns about vertical mergers,” says Diana Moss, president of the American Antitrust Institute.
Scenario: AT&T loses. AT&T and Time Warner could appeal, but there would be real questions about whether they would further delay their transaction.
Some academics argue that a decision in favor of the DOJ would suggest a major shift in the way vertically integrated mergers are treated. Larry Downes, senior industry and innovation fellow at Georgetown University, says, “It will signal, perhaps unintentionally, a radical change in antitrust law, casting into doubt most if not all potential deals across a wide range of industries.”

No matter the court’s decision, it’s likely the president will comment. Here, AT&T chief Randall Stephenson speaks during a Washington, D.C., event last June.
REX/Shutterstock The Justice Department, however, says that disallowing the combination would merely be a shift away from what has been a past solution for problematic mergers: imposing “behavioral” conditions. Makan Delrahim, the DOJ’s antitrust chief, has instead been an advocate of requiring “structural” conditions in such situations, in which companies have to sell off business entities to alleviate anticompetitive conduct.
Amy Yong, equity research analyst at Macquarie Capital, says that in the event of an AT&T loss, Comcast might target Time Warner assets. “A lot of people are going to look at them,” she says. “John Malone has talked a lot about the ‘free radicals,’ Lionsgate being one of them. All of these content assets that are out there are strategic to someone.”
Scenario: A settlement. Don’t count it out, even after the lengthy trial and perhaps millions spent in litigation. Delrahim confirmed that AT&T’s lead attorney, Daniel Petrocelli, called him right before the trial began, and the subject of a settlement was broached but didn’t go anywhere.



The big question is just what such a settlement would look like: The Justice Department said that it gave AT&T-Time Warner three options before the lawsuit was filed: sell off DirecTV, divest Turner networks or structure a deal where AT&T owns a minority stake in Turner. The companies apparently rejected those ideas as untenable, but what about other types of asset sales or a spinoff? Antitrust experts say that a settlement is always a possibility in the drive for corporate certainty.
Scenario: Trump chimes in. Is there even much doubt that he will say something?
And how will Trump respond to future transactions? The White House expressed some support for Disney’s plans to combine with Fox when the deal was announced in December, and Trump chatted about it with Rupert Murdoch. Lately, though, the president has taken aim at Disney CEO Bob Iger, claiming a double standard in how the company responded to Roseanne Barr’s racist tweet versus what was said about Trump by figures on ABC and ESPN. AT&T’s Randall Stephenson said at a Boston College event in February that Trump’s opposition to their deal — and his hatred of CNN — was an “elephant in the room.”

https://variety.com/2018/biz/news/att-time-warner-merger-ruling-1202831457/

 

[Detective Conan]

I was worried that the fall of Star Wars might be a drag on Disney's stock and have a detrimental effect on the potential upcoming war with Comcast for Fox.

Seems the universe might be trying to head this off.

https://screenrant.com/star-wars-kathleen-kennedy-lucasfilm-exit/

[YT]oR9bUbL8uHo[/YT]

 

[Spider-Fan]

‘Junk films’ (Fifty Shades if Gray, Adam Sandler films, Fast and the Furious etc.), can make money with bad reviews because they cater to a specific audience that doesn’t care about reviews. High-brow films won’t make huge numbers even with great reviews because they only appeal to a small potential market.

But when it comes to large-investment, broadly-marketed films, like Jurrasic World or Solo, reviews are key. Those films need to appeal to the meaty part of the bell curve to be succesful, and if the film can’t hit that solid part of the curve because of mediocre reviews, it won’t be a success. Junk films don’t need to worry as much about that because their specific audience will show up regardless and studios don’t have as much invested.

The RT % on JW2 anf JW last I say was mostly the same. JW has a 71, JW2 a 69. JW got 1.5 billion on okay only reviews.

 

[ADollarADay]

I was worried that the fall of Star Wars might be a drag on Disney's stock and have a detrimental effect on the potential upcoming war with Comcast for Fox.

Seems the universe might be trying to head this off.

https://screenrant.com/star-wars-kathleen-kennedy-lucasfilm-exit/

One can only hope, but I believe it when I see it. I would also need to see who would replace her before being excited about it.

 

[Bach]

[YT]oR9bUbL8uHo[/YT]

Damn. This has become a much bigger problem than I anticipated.

One can only hope, but I believe it when I see it. I would also need to see who would replace her before being excited about it.

That's what worries me the most. Even if she steps down, the person who replaces her could damage the franchise as much as she did or even worse. What we need is someone who really cares about the Star Wars universe, its lore, and the potential it represents instead of someone who just wants to impose their agenda.

Big Bang mentioned Dave Filoni. I've only seen Clone Wars, so I can't agree or disagree. I would need to see more of his work before giving my full opinion and taking a definitive stance.