The Rebooted "Keep Hope Alive" (that the rights can revert back to Marvel) Thread - - - - - - - - - Part 18

[Zarex]

Agreed. By directly referencing that and creating expectations, Iger has inadvertently created potential for failure for the MCU. If the deal falls apart, it will put a ton of pressure on Kevin Feige, and that is unfortunate since he didn't create the situation.

An awful lot of folks blame the behind the scenes turmoil in Solo's unimpressive debut. Though a different situation, Disney's going to be looking at a futon of bad press if this deal goes south, with click bait headlines "How Iger blew it" "Is the MCU in trouble?" and "Marvel-ous things happening at Universal!" dominating the narrative. That's a bad environment in which to launch Phase 4 franchises, and I am confident Iger will do something about it.

 

[Spider-Fan]

If this goes south, no one is blaming Feige or boycotting Marvel films. There will be temporary disappointment and then we will all flock to see Avengers 4 onward to $2 billion dollars.

 

[Art Freak]

An awful lot of folks blame the behind the scenes turmoil in Solo's unimpressive debut. Though a different situation, Disney's going to be looking at a futon of bad press if this deal goes south, with click bait headlines "How Iger blew it" "Is the MCU in trouble?" and "Marvel-ous things happening at Universal!" dominating the narrative. That's a bad environment in which to launch Phase 4 franchises, and I am confident Iger will do something about it.

I see what you did there.

 

[Big Bang]

If this goes south, no one is blaming Feige or boycotting Marvel films. There will be temporary disappointment and then we will all flock to see Avengers 4 onward to $2 billion dollars.

Nobody reasonable. That won't stop naysayers from trying to create conflict.

 

[Detective Conan]

After announcing to the Marvel fans that the most successful film franchise of all time was adding a fu**ton of popular characters, it's going to be EXTREMELY challenging to squeeze it back into the tube. As we've seen recently with Star Wars, these mega-franchises ain't invincible. Bad news on the Fox acquisition could have a negative impact on the MCU BO going forward, and Kabletown may (unlike Fox) invest the money required to create a serious competing franchise with their Marvel rights. Iger needs to shut it down now while he still can.

You mean shut it down now as in give up on the deal?

And I don’t know if it’ll impact the MCU very much (if at all). If for some reason the deal doesn’t go through(though of course it would be massively disappointing for us Marvel Fans because it automatically makes all of our celebrations when the deal was first announced back in December of last year premature and be an embarassment to Iger who explicitly stated in no uncertain terms that the Fox own Marvel characters would be in the MCU), but Marvel will still be just fine. As I said before, they’ve proven they don’t need their top-tier characters to be successful. Black Panther alone made more money than any of the Fox-made Marvel films ever released. Marvel still has tons of characters at their arsenal who, even though they aren’t as known the as X-Men, can be made to be as known as them. Marvel doesn’t need the Fox-characters the Fox characters need them.

And I’m sorry I don’t care what the Fox-loyalists say the potential Comcast/Universal X-Men & Fantastic Four films will never ever be as successful as the potential MCU ones. So it’d be Fox’s loss if they sell to Comcast not Marvel Studios’s.

 

[Spider-Fan]

Nobody reasonable. That won't stop naysayers from trying to create conflict.

But those idiots are a blip in the radar. The MCU is the biggest film franchise out there right now. The GA eat them up. It's not like Star Wars where there is a division that is very evident. As long as the movies maintain quality, it won't matter what a few idiots try to stir up.

 

[Flint Marko]

Nobody reasonable. That won't stop naysayers from trying to create conflict.

Eh, they'd be throwing pebbles at an aircraft carrier and we all know it. The MCU is an unstoppable behemoth at the moment and a failure to recoup the rights to more Marvel properties won't change that. It'd be super disappointing and anyone coming out to celebrate or stir the pot would just be showing how salty they are.

Frankly the only negative effect this would have on Marvel is if Universal came out strong and became the first real competitor in the superhero genre. WB fell on their faces several times over and Fox pretty much found their footing by offering alternatives to what Marvel has been producing, but Universal could reboot and potentially make some really successful FF and X-men movies.

 

[Detective Conan]

If Comcast wins out and gets the Marvel rights I’ll at least take some petty comfort in knowing they’ll be saddled with a sh**t-load of debt when it’s all said and done.

 

[Zarex]

If this goes south, no one is blaming Feige or boycotting Marvel films. There will be temporary disappointment and then we will all flock to see Avengers 4 onward to $2 billion dollars.

I'm not talking about boycotting Marvel films nor am I talking about Avengers 4. What I am talking about is launching the next slate of MCU flicks in a environment burdened by the negative news of a promise to fans that was not kept. That's bad new s for any franchise regardless of how successful it has been in the past.

You mean shut it down now as in give up on the deal? .

No, Iger needs to either outbid Roberts or use the threat of a bidding war to extricate rights from Kabletow.

 

[Big Bang]

But those idiots are a blip in the radar. The MCU is the biggest film franchise out there right now. The GA eat them up. It's not like Star Wars where there is a division that is very evident. As long as the movies maintain quality, it won't matter what a few idiots try to stir up.

I'm not so sure. There is evidently an element within Hollywood itself that wants to see Marvel Studios take a dive. Even within the press there are those who want to see the same (for whatever reason). Call it jealousy or whatever, but there are those in the industry who do not want to see Marvel where it is currently.

What I don't want to see are those people be given any kind of meaningful ammunition. Granted the GA will continue to gobble out Marvel's product, but the loud static from those voices will become a bigger nuisance.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

I do think, if possible, at the very least, Comcast would possibly be open to selling back the FF rights. The FF film franchise has never set the world on fire box office wise and frankly I’m not even sure if Comcast would be quite as enthused about the property when they already have much bigger Marvel properties like X-Men & Deadpool at their disposal. Problem is, I still don’t see Disney bowing down to Comcast’s terms(if they lose Fox to them) because I think Disney would still remember the embarrassment of being out-bidded by them, and that would leave them very sour on doing any business with Comcast for those rights. I really don’t see a world where the Mouse(especially if they’re defeated in a bidding war for Fox by Comcast) being open to paying money for the Marvel rights they own. Me thinks that Iger would take being defeated by his arch-rival(Brian Roberts) very personally and be bitter about ever paying anything to him in exchange for the Marvel rights. I could be wrong, but something tells me I’m not.

If I were Comcast, I wouldn't touch FF. I'd focus on X-Men. I'd offer to give Disney FF for some concessions on X-Men merchandise.

 

[Marvel united]

I wonder why Fox hasn't responded to Comcast's offer yet...

 

[Detective Conan]

Frankly the only negative effect this would have on Marvel is if Universal came out strong and became the first real competitor in the superhero genre. WB fell on their faces several times over and Fox pretty much found their footing by offering alternatives to what Marvel has been producing, but Universal could reboot and potentially make some really successful FF and X-men movies.

But I’d argue even then the FF needs the MCU to really help it to box office success. A non-MCU FF film even if its good still has a tough hill to climb to win over audiences after the previous stinkers IMO. It’d hard for me to see a Universal made Fantastic Four film competing with the MCU at this point. The best path forward for the FF on film is the MCU as I feel you can garner interest in people who are skeptical of the property thanks to the godawful previous films to go see it.

 

[Spider-Fan]

I'm not talking about boycotting Marvel films nor am I talking about Avengers 4. What I am talking about is launching the next slate of MCU flicks in a environment burdened by the negative news of a promise to fans that was not kept. That's bad new s for any franchise regardless of how successful it has been in the past.

Again, once Avengers 4 makes 2 billion dollars and Marvel keeps making good movies, no one will care. We nerds care about this. But we make up a small % of the overall BO take for the MCU. The wider audience probably isn't even aware this is a thing.

I'm not so sure. There is evidently an element within Hollywood itself that wants to see Marvel Studios take a dive. Even within the press there are those who want to see the same (for whatever reason). Call it jealousy or whatever, but there are those in the industry who do not want to see Marvel where it is currently.

What I don't want to see are those people be given any kind of meaningful ammunition. Granted the GA will continue to gobble out Marvel's product, but the loud static from those voices will become a bigger nuisance.

Good for them in the industry (though I have seen no such trend). But even if that is the case, 2 billion dollar films in 1 year. Yeah, those voices don't matter. People love the MCU. Whether they score FOX or not, that will continue. So long as they make good movies. James Cameron and those like him have no effect on this at all.

 

[MasterCat]

Marvel/Disney was willing to pay millions for the Spider-Man film rights before the deal with Sony was ever a thing. Granted, Spidey is on a different level of popularity than either FF & X-Men but the Fox Marvel Rights(especially the X-Men) could add so much to the Marvel universe. An MCU X-Men with the Disney merchandise engine behind it could be UNSTOPPABLE and rake monster profits IMO.

Well sure, but that's the X-Men. Even then, it's hard to estimate how much more valuable they are than J. Random Silver Ager like Ant-Man or Dr. Strange.
Compare how The Amazing Spider-Man grossed $758 million worldwide and Homecoming $880 million after 5 years of inflation. So we don't know if X-Men (2023) under the MCU banner would have a higher global gross than Black Panther, or "just" $850 million.
The fact that Fox can't synergize with merchandise is big, but Disney has a very spotty track record with video game licenses and toy sales are caving with the closure of Toys R Us.

 

[DyfeddRex]

I wonder why Fox hasn't responded to Comcast's offer yet...

Probably the shock of the potential tax bill to the major stock holders...

Looks like the Murdochs could be nearly 8 Bills, total, when you include the fed, state, local, and dividends tax for spinning off New Fox.

 

[DyfeddRex]

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/15/rupert-murdochs-tax-bill-could-top-4-billion-in-fox-deal.html

And that is just the Murdochs' estimated holdings....

The worry for others is just as big, as not all have the cash to write those kind of checks, percentage wise, on that kind of deal, and come out ahead.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

I think the biggest problem for the MCU after the next Avengers if they don't get the rights is: "How do you top Thanos?"

With the rights, you top Thanos with Dr. Doom, Galactus, Mephisto, Annihilus, Kang...

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/15/rupert-murdochs-tax-bill-could-top-4-billion-in-fox-deal.html

And that is just the Murdochs' estimated holdings....

The worry for others is just as big, as not all have the cash to write those kind of checks, percentage wise, on that kind of deal, and come out ahead.

This is the thing. I've heard people talking about the tax implications for Murdoch, but someone with $50,000 worth of stock is also going to have to deal with Tax implications, so that detail shouldn't be brushed aside too quickly.

 

[ADollarADay]

If I were Comcast, I wouldn't touch FF. I'd focus on X-Men. I'd offer to give Disney FF for some concessions on X-Men merchandise.

That's not gonna happen from either side. Disney ain't giving up any piece of any merchandise rights. And Comcast wouldn't give up FF without some tangible (overpriced) assets. From a business perspective, it makes no sense to give up FF if Comcast wins the full bid (unless Disney overpays). At best you'd get a Sony situation where Comcast would still own the film rights to the characters and the lore.

This is the thing. I've heard people talking about the tax implications for Murdoch, but someone with $50,000 worth of stock is also going to have to deal with Tax implications, so that detail shouldn't be brushed aside too quickly.

That's close to my reality and my problem. I still need to do some math, but there's a way to offset capital gains with real estate deductions. It's just that if it's too much capital gains at once that would be an issue, but you're not wrong here.

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

Frankly the only negative effect this would have on Marvel is if Universal came out strong and became the first real competitor in the superhero genre. WB fell on their faces several times over and Fox pretty much found their footing by offering alternatives to what Marvel has been producing, but Universal could reboot and potentially make some really successful FF and X-men movies.

I don't view that as a negative. A rising tide lifts all boats.

 

[Iceman]

It would be interesting if we could get some analysis of fair value for these rights.

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

I think the biggest problem for the MCU after the next Avengers if they don't get the rights is: "How do you top Thanos?"

With the rights, you top Thanos with Dr. Doom, Galactus, Mephisto, Annihilus, Kang...

Not necessary. Nobody besides hardcore comic nerds knew who Thanos was. Audiences cared because he was hyped for years in the films. They could do that with anybody.

Plus, I'm pretty sure they have Mephisto already. He was in Ghost Rider.

 

[Flint Marko]

I don't view that as a negative. A rising tide lifts all boats.

True that. It just means that Marvel will have to up the ante.

 

[ironwez20]

and they will