The Rebooted "Keep Hope Alive" (that the rights can revert back to Marvel) Thread - - - - - - - - - Part 18

[DyfeddRex]

and, if so, my money is now that we will see one of the other, darker Heralds first, say Morg or Terrax, before Norrin Radd.

 

[Marvel united]

If Disney and Fox had already made a deal for the Marvel rights then we'd have nothing to worry about

 

[DyfeddRex]

Until we see the deal in all its details, we don't know, but I would hope Iger cut one that allowed the FF/Mutant rights to be bought out as part of the breakup of the deal due to regulatory or stockholder objections, and just did not announce it.

 

[Chip Chipperson]

I don’t have the slightest worry about this

A deal will get done and marvel will get their stuff back. La la lock it up

 

[ADollarADay]

Until we see the deal in all its details, we don't know, but I would hope Iger cut one that allowed the FF/Mutant rights to be bought out as part of the breakup of the deal due to regulatory or stockholder objections, and just did not announce it.

That would have been specified in the SEC filings. It wasn't. There's no such specification in the break up fee. If Fox walks out for any reason on its own, they have to pay 1.525B to Disney. That's it.

That's not to say Disney couldn't negotiate that 1.525B fee, but there's noting explicitly there.

 

[Big Bang]

That's not to say Disney couldn't negotiate that 1.525B fee, but there's noting explicitly there.

i.e. if it came to the payout of such fee, Disney could offer to renegotiate it to accept certain assets in lieu of cash payment, I presume?

 

[ADollarADay]

Bankers and advisers are telling Roberts to expect blowback and resistance from the DOJ and 21CF board even if AT&T wins. Roberts, though, is not trying to hear that and is dead serious about going through with an offer. He believes it's a no lose situation.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DyeqIQ-BDd4

i.e. if it came to the payout of such fee, Disney could offer to renegotiate it to accept certain assets in lieu of cash payment, I presume?

Yes, I think they would still have to go through with it, i.e. 21CF pays Disney the 1.525B and then Disney turns around and pays them back that money or a portion of it in exchange for the rights. A zero sum game, but probably required for legal reasons.

To be honest though I think it would be a tough negotiation. On the (FF) plus side, it's mid 2018. If the deal falls through, 21CF would have to start principal photography no later than July 2021 and right now there's not even a script for anything. Clock's ticking there.

 

[Detective Conan]

Bankers and advisers are telling Roberts to expect blowback and resistance from the DOJ and 21CF board even if AT&T wins. Roberts, though, is not trying to hear that and is dead serious about going through with an offer. He believes it's a no lose situation.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DyeqIQ-BDd4

Man, I gotta hand it to Roberts he is tenacious. Didn’t Roberts put a hostile bid of an aquisition for(ironically)Disney all those years ago only for it to be rebuffed by the shareholders? Could the same happen here or is the situation here much more favorable to Roberts for takeover than it was for Roberts attempted(and failed) Disney takeover.

 

[ADollarADay]

Man, I gotta hand it to Roberts he is tenacious. Didn’t Roberts put a hostile bid of an aquisition for(ironically)Disney all those years ago only for it to be rebuffed by the shareholders? Could the same happen here or is the situation here much more favorable to Roberts for takeover than it was for Roberts attempted(and failed) Disney takeover.

2004 for 54B.

 

[Detective Conan]

Bankers and advisers are telling Roberts to expect blowback and resistance from the DOJ and 21CF board even if AT&T wins. Roberts, though, is not trying to hear that and is dead serious about going through with an offer. He believes it's a no lose situation.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DyeqIQ-BDd4

Man, I gotta hand it to Roberts he is tenacious. Didn’t Roberts put a hostile bid for an aquisition for(ironically)Disney all those years ago only for it to be rebuffed by the shareholders?

 

[Marvel united]

That's probably why he's so bitter over the Fox acquisition

 

[Detective Conan]

2004 for 54B.

thats only few million dollars lower than The current planned bid for Fox. Oh, on another note I think I’ll have to unsubscribe from Campea channel(yes, I know it’s embarssing to admit I was even a subscriber to his channel) but he recently had this video yesterday where he commented on the news of a potential bidding war between Fox and Comcast and he basically said he was rooting for Comcast because he wants to see X-Men, Fantastic Four, Deadpool made by another studio because he thinks the MCU is ‘overcrowded’. I can understand X-Men and DP but how anyone still wants FF away from the MCU is beyond me.

It’s baffling.

 

[Marvel united]

There no such thing as an "overcrowded" MCU. The comics have thousands of characters that exist in that universe alone across dozens in the Multiverse. Marvel completing the MCU with THEIR characters that have been a part of the wider Marvel Universe since their inception is not "overcrowding". I'm tired of that ridiculous notion that some use to justify why the X-Men (F4 too but mainly X-Men) can't fit into the world they were created to be a part of.

And I'm not surprised it's coming from Campea again.

 

[Detective Conan]

That's probably why he's so bitter over the Fox acquisition

Here’s an article about that that you might find intriguing. Its about the failed Comcast bid and man it does have echoes to their currently planned bid for the Fox assets. I hope history repeats itself with their bid for the Fox assets.

 

[Big Bang]

Bankers and advisers are telling Roberts to expect blowback and resistance from the DOJ and 21CF board even if AT&T wins. Roberts, though, is not trying to hear that and is dead serious about going through with an offer. He believes it's a no lose situation.

I get his motivations for doing so. It is a very difficult situation for the media and old guards of the TV service to be in against the major tech firms. What they've put together on a technological level is poised to just completely eclipse them, and consolidation is such a major sticking point. It highlights why expansion overseas is so vital to Comcast.

To be honest though I think it would be a tough negotiation. On the (FF) plus side, it's mid 2018. If the deal falls through, 21CF would have to start principal photography no later than July 2021 and right now there's not even a script for anything. Clock's ticking there.

It sets up another Fan4stic situation, which they should want to avoid at all costs.

2004 for 54B.

Fighting that tooth and nail was one of the last things Eisner did right.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

That would have been specified in the SEC filings. It wasn't. There's no such specification in the break up fee. If Fox walks out for any reason on its own, they have to pay 1.525B to Disney. That's it.

That's not to say Disney couldn't negotiate that 1.525B fee, but there's noting explicitly there.

What is possible (and I'm not saying it's likely, but possible), is that Disney and Fox may have agreed, prior to the buy-out, to make some joint films (similar to the Sony deal) that would allow Marvel to use characters in their films and they would co-produce films with Fox in the future.

I don't believe that would be specified in the filings since it wouldn't really change hard assets (though it could depend on the details).

 

[Marvel united]

Here’s an article about that that you might find intriguing. Its about the failed Comcast bid and man it does have echoes about their currently planned bid for the Fox assets. I hope history repeats itself with their bid for the Fox assets.

Holy ****, it's like 2004 all over again. So many things that happened with Comcast back then with Disney mirror what's happening with Fox right now. Is history going to repeat itself here? Comcast making a hostile bid and in the end, walking away with nothing? I hope so.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

Yes, I think they would still have to go through with it, i.e. 21CF pays Disney the 1.525B and then Disney turns around and pays them back that money or a portion of it in exchange for the rights. A zero sum game, but probably required for legal reasons.

The problem with this would be the hypothetical $60 billion bid from Comcast would be a bid for Fox studios including the X-Men and FF rights. Fox would be worth less without those assets. So I think a deal would have to be coordinated with Comcast (with Comcast's bid lowered proportionally).

 

[ADollarADay]

I get his motivations for doing so. It is a very difficult situation for the media and old guards of the TV service to be in against the major tech firms. What they've put together on a technological level is poised to just completely eclipse them, and consolidation is such a major sticking point. It highlights why expansion overseas is so vital to Comcast.

It sets up another Fan4stic situation, which they should want to avoid at all costs.

Fighting that tooth and nail was one of the last things Eisner did right.

The international assets are what's really important here.

As we talked about before I think Sky should be the sacrificial lamb for Disney to get the rest of Fox (plus the Marvel rights and Hulu share Comcast owns). Sky is extremely valuable, but thinking long term getting Star in India and expanding ESPN+Hulu+Disney streaming in Europe would get them to compete with more established players there as well.

I don't think the board is thinking that way though and they have more data than we do.

What is possible (and I'm not saying it's likely, but possible), is that Disney and Fox may have agreed, prior to the buy-out, to make some joint films (similar to the Sony deal) that would allow Marvel to use characters in their films and they would co-produce films with Fox in the future.

I don't believe that would be specified in the filings since it wouldn't really change hard assets (though it could depend on the details).

It's possible though I think that's highly unlikely.

You are right that such a deal would not be in the SEC filings.

The problem with this would be the hypothetical $60 billion bid from Comcast would be a bid for Fox studios including the X-Men and FF rights. Fox would be worth less without those assets. So I think a deal would have to be coordinated with Comcast (with Comcast's bid lowered proportionally).

I agree. That's why I said it would be a tough negotiation. I think if Comcast wins the bid, then those rights would remain with them (Comcast would fast track a FF movie to keep the rights IMO).

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

thats only few million dollars lower than The current planned bid for Fox. Oh, on another note I think I’ll have to unsubscribe from Campea channel(yes, I know it’s embarssing to admit I was even a subscriber to his channel) but he recently had this video yesterday where he commented on the news of a potential bidding war between Fox and Comcast and he basically said he was rooting for Comcast because he wants to see X-Men, Fantastic Four, Deadpool made by another studio because he thinks the MCU is ‘overcrowded’. I can understand X-Men and DP but how anyone still wants FF away from the MCU is beyond me.

It’s baffling.

Just when you think Campea couldn't be more dumb, he pulls something like this out of his butt. Seriously, since he first thought Fant4stic was going to be a great movie, nearly everything I've seen him say has been dumb, dumb, dumb.

I would, absolutely 100% honestly take the opinion of any random 5th grader I pulled off the street as more valid than Campea's.

 

[Marvel united]

I hope Disney does give up Sky

 

[Detective Conan]

I hope Disney does give up Sky

That would be the best case scenario for everyone involved but my fear is that Iger likely views Sky as being more valuable than Fox and remember getting Sky is not contingent on whether the merger with Fox goes through or not so I wonder if there’s a possibility that Disney let’s Comcast get Fox and just focus on getting Sky(since that’s more valuable to Disney than the Fox assets I suspect).

Didn’t Iger refer to Sky as a “crown jewel” or something a while back? While I do want the Mouse to get Fox(obviously because of Marvel rights) I’m not that keen on them getting Sky at all. But Iger seems very keen and that might prevent him from working something out with Roberts when/if the AT&T deal gets approval leading to the Comcast bid.

 

[Dark Raven]

I thought Iger said that they would be willing to proceed without Sky if necessary.

 

[Big Bang]

The international assets are what's really important here.

As we talked about before I think Sky should be the sacrificial lamb for Disney to get the rest of Fox (plus the Marvel rights and Hulu share Comcast owns). Sky is extremely valuable, but thinking long term getting Star in India and expanding ESPN+Hulu+Disney streaming in Europe would get them to compete with more established players there as well.

I don't think the board is thinking that way though and they have more data than we do.

Star I think is probably one of the most intriguing assets Fox has. More so, what is very interesting is how under the radar they've been, getting little to no attention in just about every article and discussion on this topic. It's an asset with huge potential, giving whoever owns it a foothold into the South Asian market. Comcast no doubt has their eye on that asset.

On the Sky front, Comcast seems to be inching more closely to being in the top spot to get it. Letting Sky go ultimately I think is going to make the most fiscal sense.

Just found this article that puts all of this in perspective, and really gives focus on what the real driving force is going to be (i.e., the Cloud).

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/last-mile-dominance-cannot-help-164105321.html

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

If, hypothetically, Disney only had a casual interest in Sky, it would be in their interest to say they had a strong interest (since they know Comcast is interested and any value they will get from Comcast will be greater if they at least pretend they're very interested also).

And if, hypothetically, Comcast only had a casual interest in Fox, it would be in their best interest to say they had a strong interest (since we know Disney is interested and Comcast's bargaining position will be stronger if they indicate they want Fox plus Sky).

Judging either company's real interest is difficult because of the situation.

If a poker player says they've got a great hand, maybe they do, maybe they don't. There's no way to know because it's all part of the game.