The Rebooted "Keep Hope Alive" (that the rights can revert back to Marvel) Thread - - - - - - - - - Part 18

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I expect Roberts to go off the rails trying to get Fox
This is true, he has a repuatation for being aggressive with what he wants, and he might even risk putting his company in huge debt for a while in order to get those assets.

Something tells me Roberts might have something up his sleeve that we’re not anticipating that he could use to nab Fox from the Mouse. Either way, this could get ugly come June.
 
Pretty much confirms that CMCSA will have to put up a bid no later than the end of the week of June 12th (i.e. June 15th). More likely though they would have the bid official the day after Judge Leon's ruling, if it goes the way they want it to. They want to give shareholders plenty of time to look at their offer.

EDIT:

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/disney-fox-set-july-10-shareholder-votes-524b-deal-1115667

Fox may postpone or adjourn the meeting, depending on what happens (i.e. if Comcast does make an offer and what the offer actually would be).

Disney also set July 10th as its shareholder voting date on the deal.

Yeah, I think the June meeting would be postponed if there was any new big info to consider.
 
You have to think also how long does Fox want this to drag on? If one wants the best deal done so you can unload the assets you want to sell in the relatively shortest amount of time, that seems like that would be a factor.
 
You have to think also how long does Fox want this to drag on? If one wants the best deal done so you can unload the assets you want to sell in the relatively shortest amount of time, that seems like that would be a factor.

Yeah it's only worth considering the option that leads to more uncertainty and a much longer timeframe if the extra premium is a lot more. If Disney match or come close to a raised Comcast bid I think Comcast has no chance. Their bid would have to be a lot more than Disney's final bid for them to have a real chance IMO.
 
This is true, he has a repuatation for being aggressive with what he wants, and he might even risk putting his company in huge debt for a while in order to get those assets.

Something tells me Roberts might have something up his sleeve that we’re not anticipating that he could use to nab Fox from the Mouse. Either way, this could get ugly come June.

Depends how far he wants to push. He doesn't have carte blanche either. The board may push back. Or shareholders. Huge institutions like Vanguard and Blackrock are not going to vote for it if they are gonna lose money. Funnily enough Vanguard, Blackrock, and State Street are 3 of the Top 5 institutional shareholders for both CMCSA and DIS.
 
A key point in the HR article, which I believe hadn't been previously disclosed, was the Mouse's right to match a competing offer. Roberts is going to have to go a lot higher than the reported $60B - maybe $70B? - in order to prevent a counter offer from Iger.
 
Depends how far he wants to push. He doesn't have carte blanche either. The board may push back. Or shareholders. Huge institutions like Vanguard and Blackrock are not going to vote for it if they are gonna lose money. Funnily enough Vanguard, Blackrock, and State Street are 3 of the Top 5 institutional shareholders for both CMCSA and DIS.

Yeah, just looking at the stock price since April 24 indicates to me that most investors aren't thrilled with Roberts' Ahab impersonation.

He might be able to get his $60 billion offer together (though even that isn't certain), but beyond that, I don't think lenders or other board members or shareholders are anxious to spend as much money as it will take to yank this away from Disney.

Roberts' only chance is for Fox to jump at the $60 billion offer and Disney to walk away... but that's simply not going to happen.

While I'm sure Disney doesn't want to have to pay more than they already have, they're going to go as high as they need to to get this done.
 
It will be interesting to see what happens to Comcast stock the day the At&T decision is announced.

My prediction is that if the deal is approved, Comcast stock will drop and vice versa.

And that should be telling Roberts something that he may be too foolish to hear.
 
A key point in the HR article, which I believe hadn't been previously disclosed, was the Mouse's right to match a competing offer. Roberts is going to have to go a lot higher than the reported $60B - maybe $70B? - in order to prevent a counter offer from Iger.

Someone on another board was thinking 80 or 90B which would be ridonculous. I would dump my CMCSA shares so quick if they offered that.

It will be interesting to see what happens to Comcast stock the day the At&T decision is announced.

My prediction is that if the deal is approved, Comcast stock will drop and vice versa.

And that should be telling Roberts something that he may be too foolish to hear.

Men in high power positions usually think they know better than anyone else. The only thing bigger than their bank account is their ego.
 
Goddamn it if this doesn’t happen....

Come on Iger you got this.

I know Marvel doesn’t need these properties now, but they will soon
 
Someone on another board was thinking 80 or 90B which would be ridonculous. I would dump my CMCSA shares so quick if they offered that.

In that scenario the best move for Iger would be to congratulate Roberts on his successful bid and then pick up the FOX (and other) pieces at a discount in a few years if (when) Kabletown fails to meet its debt obligations.
 
Iger 4 prez if he sorts this out. :funny:
 
Huh? They offered 64B in November and yet Fox went with Disney.
What changes now?
 
Yeah, just looking at the stock price since April 24 indicates to me that most investors aren't thrilled with Roberts' Ahab impersonation.

He might be able to get his $60 billion offer together (though even that isn't certain), but beyond that, I don't think lenders or other board members or shareholders are anxious to spend as much money as it will take to yank this away from Disney.

Roberts' only chance is for Fox to jump at the $60 billion offer and Disney to walk away... but that's simply not going to happen.

While I'm sure Disney doesn't want to have to pay more than they already have, they're going to go as high as they need to to get this done.


A factor in all of this is that Comcast is having to borrow all the money for their bid while Disney are dipping into their warchest to cover their bid. From what I understand Disney hold over $100 billion in treasury stock (stock they have bought back over the years) and its from this stock that they are making their bid. With some of the Fox shareholders wanting cash I can see Disney offering to sweeten their bid with some cash, but that the bulk of the offer will still be stock. This will make it easier for Disney as they won't be needing anywhere near as much cash for their bid as Comcast will for their all cash bid.
 
Huh? They offered 64B in November and yet Fox went with Disney.
What changes now?

All cash vs all stock. Protection against regulatory block of the merger.

I think that's the logic, but it also shows that a $60 billion offer is far from a sure thing.

At first glance, the Comcast offer appears to be $7.5 billion higher than Disney.

But when you take the breakup fee out of that, that makes it just $6 billion higher than Disney, and I think that's, at best, borderline enough to get people at Fox interested enough to consider scrapping a Disney deal that's already well on it's way. The Disney deal should be closing by early next year. The Comcast deal likely wouldn't close until 2020, and that's a big problem. I can't really imagine, as a Fox shareholder, voting to scrap the Disney deal for a just a few bucks more while going back to square one.

The size of the offer makes me wonder if it really is a serious offer or simply put up for show by Comcast to make it look like they're doing something (and an attempt to force Disney to pay a little more).
 
I think that's the logic, but it also shows that a $60 billion offer is far from a sure thing.

At first glance, the Comcast offer appears to be $7.5 billion higher than Disney.

But when you take the breakup fee out of that, that makes it just $6 billion higher than Disney, and I think that's, at best, borderline enough to get people at Fox interested enough to consider scrapping a Disney deal that's already well on it's way. The Disney deal should be closing by early next year. The Comcast deal likely wouldn't close until 2020, and that's a big problem. I can't really imagine, as a Fox shareholder, voting to scrap the Disney deal for a just a few bucks more while going back to square one.

The size of the offer makes me wonder if it really is a serious offer or simply put up for show by Comcast to make it look like they're doing something (and an attempt to force Disney to pay a little more).

Comcast will try to argue otherwise when they try to convince FOX/FOXA shareholders:

If you have concerns over the timeline for regulatory review, don’t. Regulators looking at a Comcast-Fox deal wouldn’t be starting from scratch. Disney may appear to have a jump since it’s already started the process with U.S. agencies, but they’ve also asked Comcast for material as part of that review, insiders say. If Fox shareholders go for Comcast’s offer, the regulatory bodies already have a lot of the material in that scenario too.

https://www.recode.net/2018/5/23/17385214/comcast-versus-disney-fox-hulu


We also don't know the size of the offer yet. All we know is that Comcast is serious about putting a bid, it will depend on the T/TWX ruling, and it's going to be at least 60B. For all we know it might be 60B in cash + unspecified amount in CMCSA stock. Nothing is official yet.
 
I think that's the logic, but it also shows that a $60 billion offer is far from a sure thing.

At first glance, the Comcast offer appears to be $7.5 billion higher than Disney.

But when you take the breakup fee out of that, that makes it just $6 billion higher than Disney, and I think that's, at best, borderline enough to get people at Fox interested enough to consider scrapping a Disney deal that's already well on it's way. The Disney deal should be closing by early next year. The Comcast deal likely wouldn't close until 2020, and that's a big problem. I can't really imagine, as a Fox shareholder, voting to scrap the Disney deal for a just a few bucks more while going back to square one.

The size of the offer makes me wonder if it really is a serious offer or simply put up for show by Comcast to make it look like they're doing something (and an attempt to force Disney to pay a little more).

Another key issue is that the Murdochs are already moving on with "New Fox" in a big way. They've signed billion dollar deals with both the NFL and WWE in order to be less dependent on scripted entertainment and (according to one report) are managing the X-Men franchise in order to best fit in with their future Mouse overlords. Any benefits gained from the Kabletown overpay could be lost in pushing the transition already fully in motion back 6-9 months or more.
 
Another key issue is that the Murdochs are already moving on with "New Fox" in a big way. They've signed billion dollar deals with both the NFL and WWE in order to be less dependent on scripted entertainment and (according to one report) are managing the X-Men franchise in order to best fit in with their future Mouse overlords. Any benefits gained from the Kabletown overpay could be lost in pushing the transition already fully in motion back 6-9 months or more.

What report about the X-Men?
 
again, more signs pointing to the fact that the deal being less might mean that a side deal is in place to get the Marvel rights regardless of the deal?

Call it, time to get the rights back from Universal/Sony now.
 
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