The Rebooted "Keep Hope Alive" (that the rights can revert back to Marvel) Thread - - - - - - - - - Part 18

[Bach]

I think Disney's stock drop will be countered by the success of Marvel films.

But yeah, the Star Wars franchise is really hurting since TLJ. It's not a bad film IMO, just average. Problem is people don't go to the cinema to watch average films, even if they aren't actual critics. At this point they must get Episode IX right, otherwise it might hurt the brand so much they'd need to cancel any long-term plans they have for the franchise.

I believe that they'll have to change things in Lucas Films and everything related to Star Wars in the future, and bring someone to oversee the franchise like Kevin Feige. Also, bring more "young" directors. I want to know more about the Star Wars universe beyond the main conflict. I want personal and intimate stories about characters in the universe. I want more experimentation with the brand. I want conflicts and confrontations that touch the grey area.

Now they do nothing but limit themselves. What a shame.

 

[Shinobi Shaw]

I never got the point of all these Star Wars spinoff films besides whetting the fan's appetites.

Like what's the point in seeing Rogue One and Solo, when you ultimately know how it's gonna end.

 

[Bach]

I never got the point of all these Star Wars spinoff films besides whetting the fan's appetites.

Like what's the point in seeing Rogue One and Solo, when you ultimately know how it's gonna end.

 

[Big Bang]

Disney is not gonna share the very profitable Spiderman merchandise rights. They spent a boatload to buy that last 25% and Sony still regrets selling that. Not gonna happen. Either Sony takes the movie rights back after SM:H2 and tries to do it on their own, or they renew the deal for an X amount of years, or a buyout of SPE/SM movie rights occur.

I concur 100%. The mouse has a death grip on those rights, and they will never, ever leave the fold again. The latter is far more likely to either be bought out be it the studio as a whole, or just the rights. Either way the long term viability under Sony is very dim.

I think Disney's stock drop will be countered by the success of Marvel films.

I wish it were that simple, and maybe it is. However, the market already expects those films to do well.

I believe that they'll have to change things in Lucas Films and everything related to Star Wars in the future, and bring someone to oversee the franchise like Kevin Feige.

Storytelling wise, they have someone in Dave Filoni. Many in the fandom have long been calling for him to get complete creative control.

 

[Zarex]

Disney is not gonna share the very profitable Spiderman merchandise rights. They spent a boatload to buy that last 25% and Sony still regrets selling that. Not gonna happen. Either Sony takes the movie rights back after SM:H2 and tries to do it on their own, or they renew the deal for an X amount of years, or a buyout of SPE/SM movie rights occur.

I'm talking about the Mouse buying a stake in Sony pictures, not selling off any of the rights currently under their control.

 

[TheVileOne]

Disney won't be making any big purchases if this Fox deal goes through. They will have to keep playing nice with Sony.

 

[Tymminator]

Deadpool is not going to be PG-13. The backlash in the western countries would be huge. Not gonna happen. There are only 2 ways you can see a PG-13 Deadpool:

1. Ensemble movies, i.e X-Men, Avengers, showing up in a movie from a PG-13 character like Spider-man, etc
2. Special Edition for a China release

Interesting. Thanks for this. I can see one of three things happening:

1. Judge Leon blocks the T/TWX merger
   • Comcast will not bid.
   • BAU for Disney, wait until shareholders vote. Close the acquisition in the next 6-12 months.
2. Judge Leon allows the T/TWX merger with no concessions
   • Comcast will bid right away, maybe even the next day (i.e. June 13th)
   • Disney will prepare a counter bid. It'll probably match or exceed Comcast's offer
   • As shown above, Comcast is prepared to go up to 100B. Disney will not match that. I would expect Comcast to win out in a bidding war.
3. Judge Leon allows the T/TWX merger with concessions
   • Most interesting scenario. Comcast may or may not bid depending on what concessions are required.
   • Disney will counter the bid depending on what Comcast's bid is (that is if Disney feels Comcast's bid is weak, they won't counter).
   • Comcast won't go as high as 100B, so it could be interesting.

Right now I'm leaning towards #3.




September was when Iger and Murdoch were deep into their conversation.

https://www.theverge.com/2018/4/20/17258454/disney-21st-century-fox-acquisition



If Disney ends up acquiring Fox, then they will wait until that's cleared, I think. If Comcast wins out then, I could see that happening. SPE has the lowest ROI of any division (sans maybe mobile?) of Sony. It's also one of the riskiest divisions.



I agree. I think Disney would lowball them especially after Solo proved that no franchise is bomb proof. If a freaking SW movie starring Han Solo can bomb this badly, so too can an MCU movie. Overpaying for the rights + putting another 200MM in the movie production + marketing is risky especially for damaged properties like FF and X-Men.

I’m also leaning towards “3”. This has all been turning out more interesting the more I looked into it and the longer it’s been going on. At the very least one way or the other, the next few months will be solid fanboy/girl converstional material for quite awhile.

 

[Bach]

Storytelling wise, they have someone in Dave Filoni. Many in the fandom have long been calling for him to get complete creative control.

That'd be for the best. Clone Wars is an amazing series.

 

[Zarex]

Disney won't be making any big purchases if this Fox deal goes through. They will have to keep playing nice with Sony.

The Sony deal was proposed as a possibility if the FOX deal falls through.

 

[Shinobi Shaw]

LOL.

You sound like someone I know.

 

[Detective Conan]

Storytelling wise, they have someone in Dave Filoni. Many in the fandom have long been calling for him to get complete creative control.

The issue with Filoni is that has next to no experience on the business side of things(which is Kennedy's expertise) which is rather important. I want Filoni to get some experience directing some live-action stuff first, and get some experience in the business side of things.

And keep in mind that if somebody (either Fox or Comcast) isn't filming an FF film within 4 years, those rights will revert for free.

If the deal doesn't go through and Comcast out-bids the Mouse then if Comcast keeps Fox as it is and Fox remains the same as it was before then the Doom film might happen.

 

[Kuwolski]

That news article linked to a great piece on Doom. It's worth the read.

 

[Marvel united]

6 days...

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

If the deal doesn't go through and Comcast out-bids the Mouse then if Comcast keeps Fox as it is and Fox remains the same as it was before then the Doom film might happen.

Possibly, but I think there are a lot of headwinds to a Doom film.

1. There are no real examples of something like a Doom film working and movie execs like a sure-thing, not risky films.
2. Like the Fantastic Four, we have seen Doom in three bad films, and that doesn't generate a lot of broad enthusiasm for a new effort.
3. People like me - who would be a key demographic for a Doom film - have feelings that range from skepticism to outright hostility. Maybe Comcast will be better than Fox, but this would still be a project conceived and initiated by Fox.

IF Comcast does make an offer that's ultimately accepted, that's going to take a while to work out. And by the time all the legal hurdles are out of the way, Comcast won't have much time and they'll be under the gun to either make a Doom (or Surfer or FF) film or lose the rights.

Like last time, I don't think it would be wise to act quickly just because they have to (as opposed to having a good, solid, long-term plan).

If Comcast does buy Fox, I think the smart route (like it has been all along for Fox though they have failed to recognize it or properly utilize it) would be to focus on the X-Men and make a lush full X-World with characters crossing over and teaming up with different characters in different films to keep things fresh and interesting like what Marvel has done. The Fantastic Four (which can't be crossed-over despite some people's belief that they can) would just be a distraction and should be cut loose if Comcast is successful and wants to continue making Marvel films.

But the real smart thing for Comcast in that situation would probably be to try to get some value for all of the Marvel properties from Disney, use that cash to pay down some of their debt, and focus on properties for which they have full rights, merchandising etc.

 

[ADollarADay]

I have received my proxy vote for the Fox vote. Haven't received it yet for DIS

Possibly, but I think there are a lot of headwinds to a Doom film.

1. There are no real examples of something like a Doom film working and movie execs like a sure-thing, not risky films.
2. Like the Fantastic Four, we have seen Doom in three bad films, and that doesn't generate a lot of broad enthusiasm for a new effort.
3. People like me - who would be a key demographic for a Doom film - have feelings that range from skepticism to outright hostility. Maybe Comcast will be better than Fox, but this would still be a project conceived and initiated by Fox.

IF Comcast does make an offer that's ultimately accepted, that's going to take a while to work out. And by the time all the legal hurdles are out of the way, Comcast won't have much time and they'll be under the gun to either make a Doom (or Surfer or FF) film or lose the rights.

Like last time, I don't think it would be wise to act quickly just because they have to (as opposed to having a good, solid, long-term plan).

If Comcast does buy Fox, I think the smart route (like it has been all along for Fox though they have failed to recognize it or properly utilize it) would be to focus on the X-Men and make a lush full X-World with characters crossing over and teaming up with different characters in different films to keep things fresh and interesting like what Marvel has done. The Fantastic Four (which can't be crossed-over despite some people's belief that they can) would just be a distraction and should be cut loose if Comcast is successful and wants to continue making Marvel films.

But the real smart thing for Comcast in that situation would probably be to try to get some value for all of the Marvel properties from Disney, use that cash to pay down some of their debt, and focus on properties for which they have full rights, merchandising etc.

A Doom movie would start shooting by 2021, especially if a first draft of the script is already completed. I think Comcast would try to use the FF license. I feel very, very confident in saying that. If you think Comcast and Roberts would try to be nice and work with Disney then you haven't been paying attention. Roberts is one of the biggest sharks in the industry and it's well known that Roberts and Igers do not like each other. Yes, Roberts would risk 100MM + marketing to reboot the FF a third time.

Roberts would mandate NBCU to reboot the Fantastic Four.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

A Doom movie would start shooting by 2021, especially if a first draft of the script is already completed. I think Comcast would try to use the FF license. I feel very, very confident in saying that. If you think Comcast and Roberts would try to be nice and work with Disney then you haven't been paying attention. Roberts is one of the biggest sharks in the industry and it's well known that Roberts and Igers do not like each other. Yes, Roberts would risk 100MM + marketing to reboot the FF a third time.

Roberts would mandate NBCU to reboot the Fantastic Four.

Maybe, but I don't think 'spite' is a good business model. If I were Comcast, I'd want to build franchises around properties that I owned outright such as the monsters, Jurassic Park, Alien, Planet of the Apes etc. Sure, they've screwed the monsters up so far, and Fox has done some dumb things with Alien but that's not because there is no value there, it's poor film-making (and similarly poor film-making applied to X-Men or FF will give similar results).

And if they do want to do superhero films, I think there's plenty to work with and build a huge expansive world by just focusing on the X-Characters.

It just doesn't make good business sense to me to work with a franchise that the audience doesn't want.

He may well be that foolish and stubborn and spiteful, but if so somebody should reign him in.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

I have received my proxy vote for the Fox vote. Haven't received it yet for DIS

So wait. Am I correct in inferring you and other shareholders can vote now... before Comcast has even submitted another bid? If so, that's very interesting. Many will vote and just want to be done with it, and those votes will be locked in before Comcast even has a chance.

Or would a new offer invalidate the original vote? I assume that may depend on the board. And if the board has the ability to not call a new vote, that may mean Comcast has to win a super majority.

For example. Let's say 30% of shareholders simply rubber-stamp the deal before Comcast submits an offer. That means only 70% of total votes would still be outstanding, and Comcast would need to get 73% of those remaining votes just to have a simple majority of all votes. Or convince the board to call a new vote which could also be difficult.

 

[Dark Raven]

I have received my proxy vote for the Fox vote. Haven't received it yet for DIS

.

Why do you have one of these?

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

Why do you have one of these?

Because ADollarADay is that mystery female shareholder.

 

[Zarex]

After teasing millions of fans with an MCU reunion, a rebooted Comcast led FF franchise would go into production with approximately eleventy billion strikes against it. The fan outrage over the Ghostbusters reboot would look laughable in comparison. Roberts may very well be a spiteful pr**ck, but investing 9 figures into a franchise that hasn't had a single successful cinematic outing, has massive fan opposition and merchandise rights under the control of his greatest competitor would be a level beyond stupid.

If Kabletown spends $100B (!) of borrowed cash in an era of rising interest rates to one up Iger, I see the company spinning off non-essential assets soon after the deal closes. At least 6 of the RSNS will go on the market, and I wouldn't be surprised if Marvel rights go on the block as well.

 

[Detective Conan]

After teasing millions of fans with an MCU reunion, a rebooted Comcast led FF franchise would go into production with approximately eleventy billion strikes against it. The fan outrage over the Ghostbusters reboot would look laughable in comparison. Roberts may very well be a spiteful pr**ck, but investing 9 figures into a franchise that hasn't had a single successful cinematic outing, has massive fan opposition and merchandise rights under the control of his greatest competitor would be a level beyond stupid.

If Kabletown spends $100B (!) of borrowed cash in an era of rising interest rates to one up Iger, I see the company spinning off non-essential assets soon after the deal closes. At least 6 of the RSNS will go on the market, and I wouldn't be surprised if Marvel rights go on the block as well.

Is Comcast likely beat The Mouse? Or do you think a bidding war is inevitable in light of the AT&T/Time Warner merger?

 

[Zarex]

Is Comcast likely beat The Mouse? Or do you think a bidding war is inevitable in light of the AT&T/Time Warner merger?

I honestly haven't a clue. My guess is a major appeal of the FOX merger is that the Murdochs were willing to accept a relatively low price for a basket of extremely valuable assets in exchange for being major players at Disney going forward. If that price doubles due to Kabletown's involvement Iger may decide to look elsewhere.

 

[Orba]

UK government clears rival Sky bids

The UK government has cleared two bids for Sky from Rupert Murdoch’s 21st Century Fox and Comcast, setting up a bidding war for the pan-European media company.


Matt Hancock, the culture secretary, waved the Comcast bid through, saying there were no broadcasting standards nor public interest grounds on which to intervene. On the Fox deal, he agreed that a commitment by Fox to divest Sky News to Walt Disney was sufficient to alleviate concerns about UK media plurality.


Discussions will now begin between officials at the department of culture, media and sport with Fox, Sky and Disney “to finalise the details with a view to agreeing an acceptable form of the remedy”, Mr Hancock told parliament.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

Is Comcast likely beat The Mouse? Or do you think a bidding war is inevitable in light of the AT&T/Time Warner merger?

I can't speak for Zarex, but I think the general discussion has shifted to the hypothetical "what if Comcast wins this thing?"

I still think it's very unlikely that Comcast will walk away with Fox.

 

[Docker2.0]

Because ADollarADay is that mystery female shareholder.

What! I thought he was a guy!