The Rebooted "Keep Hope Alive" (that the rights can revert back to Marvel) Thread - - - - - - - - - Part 18

[Detective Conan]

Predictions for The Next few weeks:

Judge Leon rules in favor of the AT&T/Time Merger.

Which leads to Comcast being emboldened to put up another all-cash bid for the Fox assets which includes compensation fees should the a merger with them goes south, and provisions with their offer in order to assuage regulatory worries. It will be a hostile bid. Roberts is aggressive with what he wants and very much has a 'ends justifies the means' mindset which means even though some Shareholders are against another pursuit of the Fox assets along with the fact he could put his company in ginormous debt means little to Roberts as long as he gets the Fox assets. Say whatever you will about the man, but he’s definitely not risk-adverse.

-Which prompts a bidding war. The Fox/Disney deal is stymied as we begin to hear reports of Murdoch vacillating on whether he really wants to sell to Disney instead of the more tantalizing Comcast All-cash offer.

The Shareholders meeting to vote on the Disney deal is delayed. Initially scheduled for July 10th, the shareholder meeting could be pushed back a month or two later in order to give Fox shareholders enough time to weigh in on both the competing Fox and Disney offers so they can decide whether or not they stick with Disney or go with Comcast.

Whether the Mouse wins the bidding war or not is kind of up in the air. They might lose Fox to Comcast.

Fate of The Marvel Rights should Comcast acquire Fox Speculation:

Should Kabletown acquire Fox here's what could happen
100% positive that The Marvel Rights do not revert to Disney but stays with Fox and whoever else buys them but here's what could happen to the Marvel rights following a Comcast Merger.

A. Comcast transfers the rights to Universal and they wipe the slate clean and reboot X-Men & Fantastic Four. And they leave Deadpool as is.

B. Comcast keeps Fox as a separate subsidiary they own and they allow Fox to continue on with their X-Men series like nothing happened(with a Dark Phoenix sequel on the way, along with more spinoffs) and they continue on with their solo Doctor Doom film with Noah Hawley which they could use to springboard another FF film. Deadpool 3 and X-Force happens. And the status quo before the reports of the Disney/Fox merger first surfaced back in November 2017 is maintained. I should also note that a Comcast merger with Fox would likely take a long time so Fox would still be it’s own thing long enough for there be a sequel to Dark Phoenix(ugh), Noah Hawley’s Doctor Doom and Goddard’s X-force film and whatever spin-off that Fox wants before the potential merger with Comcast(A merger with Comcast would take 12-18 months so late 2019 or mid-2020 at the earliest of all goes well and it’s not blocked by the DOJ).

C. Comcast creates their own Marvel Studios-esque film studio dedicated to only making X-Men, Deadpool, and Fantastic Four movies and they reboot all those aforementioned properties to create their own shared universe.

Now that their Universal Monsters Universe crashed and burned Comcast would likely view Fox's Marvel assets(especially X-Men and Deadpool) as very valuable since they could use those assets to create a shared Universe that could compete with the MCU. Of course, there are much bigger things involved that are motivating Comcast's pursuit of the Fox assets than the Marvel rights but the Marvel rights are still quite valuable and Comcast wouldn't complain if they had Wolverine.

I think either A or B are more likely at this point.

 

[Chip Chipperson]

I thought fox needed permission from marvel to do an x-men F4 crossover movie

Regardless, Disney will come out on top, I have no worries

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

I thought fox needed permission from marvel to do an x-men F4 crossover movie

They would, but I'm not sure I saw anyone suggest crossovers (maybe I missed it).

And that's exactly why, if I were Comcast and I had obtained the rights, and I wanted to make films, I'd try to sell FF back to Disney and focus on X-Men.

X-Men has a huge number of characters that can be mixed and matched much like what Marvel did when they were building their world.

In fact, I'd use a Marvel as an example of how to do it. I'd start small like Marvel did with Iron Man and introduce characters in their own films so audience can get to know those characters and be invested in them, and then, only after audiences got to know and like the individual characters, I'd bring them together periodically for big event films. For most films I'd focus on 3 or 4 characters, and each film would feature different mixes of characters so the dynamics between the different characters would keep the films feeling fresh. (A Storm/Cyclops/Wolverine film would have a very different feel from a Beast/Jean Gray/Iceman film which would feel very different from a Gambit/Rogue/Colossus film etc. etc. etc.)

Because FF can't be part of that, they'd just be a distraction from the world I'd want to build.

 

[TheKryptonian]

The AT&T & Time Warner deal can still fall apart even if the judge approves it. If the DOJ loses they will file an appeal & if successful & they get granted a stay that will delay the approval & either side can decide to say **** it. So even if the merge gets approved its not over by a long shot

 

[Detective Conan]

They would, but I'm not sure I saw anyone suggest crossovers (maybe I missed it).

Thats me. Now that he mentions it that it seems Comcast being able to do a shared Universe with the Mutants and First Family is an impossibility. Is there defintive proof Fox can't cross over the Mutants and First Family together without Marvel's permission?

And that's exactly why, if I were Comcast and I had obtained the rights, and I wanted to make films, I'd try to sell FF back to Disney and focus on X-Men.

That's my preference. There's X-fans who'd love to see the Mutants in the MCU but sadly I think they're long ways off should this deal go south. FF are the most likely to go back either way since I have a hard time seeing Comcast seeing much value in the property. But who knows they might keep it to spite Marvel like Fox has.

X-Men has a huge number of characters that can be mixed and matched much like what Marvel did when they were building their world.

Agreed. I think out of all the Marvel properties the X-Men are the ones I mind the least not being in the MCU. I wouldn't really mind. Sure, it would be cool to see Wolverine fighting Hulk and interacting with the Avengers but if you think about it the X-Men is just fine away from Marvel.

Because FF can't be part of that, they'd just be a distraction from the world I'd want to build.

Yes. Agreed. The mutants are just fine on their own. The FF, on the other hand, needs Marvel Studios to get their mojo back.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

The AT&T & Time Warner deal can still fall apart even if the judge approves it. If the DOJ loses they will file an appeal & if successful & they get granted a stay that will delay the approval & either side can decide to say **** it. So even if the merge gets approved its not over by a long shot

Yeah, I saw this morning that if all goes smoothly, the deal would close on the 18th, but if the DOJ appeals (and general indications are that they will), the DOJ would likely ask to delay that closing date until their appeal can be heard.

It seems unlikely to me that this will really be cleanly over either tomorrow or on the 18th.

Of course at this point, Comcast may be determined to make their bid anyway, so all of our attention on AT&T may not matter anymore.

 

[Xeno]

Lest we forget, the post that started it all. January 15, 2013:

"I know this film has a release date. I know Josh Trank is attached to direct. I know they may be knee-deep in pre-production right now.

But I, and many others, still hold out hope that Fox will fumble the production of this film somehow and will end up letting the rights revert back to Marvel so the First Family of Marvel can finally be included in the MCU.

This is a thread for those that choose to keep hope alive!"

http://forums.superherohype.com/showpost.php?p=25005481&postcount=1

Remember when the Fan4stic fans whined to the mods and got any threads that criticized Trank's crapfest shut down? That happened on other forums, too. Fan4stic attracted anyone who hated Marvel for whatever reason, just to root for a movie whose every detail screamed "Flop!"

Those were fun times.

Whatever the outcome tomorrow I'm not going to be terribly upset by it. Truth be told, I've always been primarily an Avengers fan, so the MCU as currently constituted is my comic book dream come true. I love the FF, too, and would love to have them included in the MCU, but not getting that won't break my heart. It would be a damn shame, though. The X-things can stay with Fox or in limbo, as far as I'm concerned, because I don't relish the thought of Marvel Studios devoting most of its time and energy to the mutants. The status quo will keep the Avengers front and center, which I prefer.

 

[Detective Conan]

The AT&T & Time Warner deal can still fall apart even if the judge approves it. If the DOJ loses they will file an appeal & if successful & they get granted a stay that will delay the approval & either side can decide to say **** it. So even if the merge gets approved its not over by a long shot

The problem is that it'll likely won't be enough to discourage Comcast to bid again for Fox unless there is significant concessions stipulated in the ruling in order for the deal to go through. If the judge rules with little to no concessions than that will be more than enough for Comcast to bid again for the Fox assets. Roberts is very motivated and really wants both Fox and Sky, and he'll likely either walk with both or one of them in the end.

 

[TheKryptonian]

The problem is that it'll likely won't be enough to discourage Comcast enough to bid again for Fox unless there is significant concessions stipulated in the ruling in order for the deal to go through. If the judge rules with little to no concessions than that will be more than enough for Comcast to bid again for the Fox assets. Roberts is very motivated and really wants both Fox and Sky, and he'll likely either walk with both or one of them in the end.

But it might be enough to get FOX to stop & think about it before they entertain Comcast. Comcast wont be smart about this but FOX should be

 

[TheKryptonian]

The problem is that it'll likely won't be enough to discourage Comcast enough to bid again for Fox unless there is significant concessions stipulated in the ruling in order for the deal to go through. If the judge rules with little to no concessions than that will be more than enough for Comcast to bid again for the Fox assets. Roberts is very motivated and really wants both Fox and Sky, and he'll likely either walk with both or one of them in the end.

Yeah Comcast will still bid but Robert's & FOX's lawyers (if they are good) would tell FOX & Robert that it might be best to stay away from Comcast entirely

 

[Detective Conan]

Whatever the outcome tomorrow I'm not going to be terribly upset by it. Truth be told, I've always been primarily an Avengers fan, so the MCU as currently constituted is my comic book dream come true. I love the FF, too, and would love to have them included in the MCU, but not getting that won't break my heart. It would be a damn shame, though. The X-things can stay with Fox or in limbo, as far as I'm concerned, because I don't relish the thoughtof Marvel Studios devoting most of its time and energy to the mutants. The status quo will keep the Avengers front and center, which I prefer.

This is a big point. Should this deal fall through, it won't be a loss for Disney as far as the Marvel properties they own are concerned since the MCU reigns supreme even without X-Men and Fantastic Four but it will be a loss to the FF who need Marvel Studios way, way more than Marvel needs them.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

Remember when the Fan4stic fans whined to the mods and got any threads that criticized Trank's crapfest shut down? That happened on other forums, too. Fan4stic attracted anyone who hated Marvel for whatever reason, just to root for a movie whose every detail screamed "Flop!"

Those were fun times.

Yep, and if that thread had continued, we'd probably be on part fortysomething by now. But because we got shut-down and then had to restart, the new version is only on part 18.

And one thing I noticed back in those days is nobody that had an FF based user-name was saying positive things about the movie. It seemed to be mostly X-Men fans saying: "Yeah, this looks good." Real FF fans were horrified from the moment we saw Miles Teller as Reed Richards.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

This:

https://deadline.com/2018/06/avenge...-panther-marvel-chief-kevin-feige-1202406944/

When Amy Pascal was head of Sony Pictures’ Motion Pictures Group, she’d meet with Feige on how they could be more involved. “She was very gracious,” Feige said, saying she would have his team provide script notes on Spider-Man movies.

At one point, Feige told her “Why don’t you just let us do it? Her version of the story was that she threw a sandwich at us (when I said that) — however, the meeting was then over.” Six or seven months later they reunited, and figured out a way to work together.

“When we were developing Captain America: Civil War we had a plan with and without Spider-Man since we were gearing up to shoot as we were negotiating with Sony to get Spider-Man,” said the Marvel boss.

Is interesting on a few different levels.

First, it illustrates that Sony was actually smart enough to work with Marvel before the formal agreement. I suspect Fox has never been smart enough to even ask for Marvel's advice or script notes.

And it's also interesting that they mention their alternative plans for Civil War. I can imagine that they might have a similar plan with GOTG 3 (as one example). "If we get the FF rights in time, we'll include this scene with Silver Surfer. If we don't, we'll do it this way..."

Obviously Spider-Man's appearance wasn't critical to Civil War, and the film likely would have been very similar with the airport scene simply not including Spider-Man.

And I'm betting they could mention/show Silver Surfer in GOTG 3... or not, depending on where the rights stand at that moment.

 

[Detective Conan]

Real FF fans were horrified from the moment we saw Miles Teller as Reed Richards.

In all fairness, Miles Teller’s casting was more in accordance with the Ultimates verison rather than the more manly, confident leader type from the original 616 verison of the character. If you’re only a fan of the classic Stan/Jack stories and dislike ths Ultimates verison then Miles Teller is definitely miscast but if you dig the Ultimates verison where Reed is more younger, more unsure of himself, and less mature then Teller’s casting sort of spot-on.

Edit: Jon Hamm would be great casting if you have the 616 Reed Richards in mind but not good if you’re casting with the Ultimates in mind. Since Fan4stic was clearly taking inspiration more from the Ultimates comics where the team were all younger then they would cast more based on that particular verison rather than 616 take (which was what the previous movies already did).

 

[Big Bang]

Yeah Comcast will still bid but Robert's & FOX's lawyers (if they are good) would tell FOX & Robert that it might be best to stay away from Comcast entirely

Yes. If AT&T wins but the appeal further slows it down, then it gives pause to Fox shareholders when considering a Comcast bid. Comcast having a "superior" bid is irrelevant if they cannot get the deal to pass regulatory review, or gets held up for an extended period of time.

Yep, and if that thread had continued, we'd probably be on part fortysomething by now. But because we got shut-down and then had to restart, the new version is only on part 18.

And one thing I noticed back in those days is nobody that had an FF based user-name was saying positive things about the movie. It seemed to be mostly X-Men fans saying: "Yeah, this looks good." Real FF fans were horrified from the moment we saw Miles Teller as Reed Richards.

That threw me for a loop as well. Everything that could potentially come from a rebooted FF franchise was to be applied to X-Men in some shape or form. The FF were meant to be nothing more than an offshoot of the X-Men franchise.

I remember many of the posts in that thread. Things looked so awful and many of those posters went to great lengths to defend what was being shown. Yet we all knew that if what we were seeing was for an X-Men movie they would all have been up in arms saying how bad it looks.

Notice how many of those defenders are engaged today in any FF threads?

 

[Dark Raven]

Yes. If AT&T wins but the appeal further slows it down, then it gives pause to Fox shareholders when considering a Comcast bid. Comcast having a "superior" bid is irrelevant if they cannot get the deal to pass regulatory review, or gets held up for an extended period of time.

That threw me for a loop as well. Everything that could potentially come from a rebooted FF franchise was to be applied to X-Men in some shape or form. The FF were meant to be nothing more than an offshoot of the X-Men franchise.

I remember many of the posts in that thread. Things looked so awful and many of those posters went to great lengths to defend what was being shown. Yet we all knew that if what we were seeing was for an X-Men movie they would all have been up in arms saying how bad it looks.

Notice how many of those defenders are engaged today in any FF threads?

Don't worry. They'll be back again in full force if Comcast gets the FF rights.

 

[Zarex]

Fox loyalists made a brief reappearance on these boards when the Fantasti-Kids and Doom: Origins films were first announced.

 

[Crimz]

What is the likelihood of the Time Warner deal going through?

 

[Detective Conan]

What is the likelihood of the Time Warner deal going through?

Very likely, hate to say. Most anaylsts predict the deal will go through partially since Judge Leon has had a history of approving similar mergers before but keep in mind that just because they might get approval doesn’t mean Time Warner is in the clear as the DOJ could appeal the decision not to mention there might be some concessions stipulated by the Judge that AT&T wouldn’t be open to agreeing to (like selling off CNN or something) that might send a signal to Fox shareholders & Murdoch that a potential Comcast deal (even if they ultimately abandon the Disney deal in favor of Comcast) might face similar pushback from the DOJ no matter how much more alluring their All-cash bid and improved regulatory provisions are. That and it could make Comcast think twice about bidding(though they will).

I still think the Judge will approve the merger tommorow but the real question you should be asking is will he approve it with or without concessions? If the decision is a clear-cut approval with little to no concessions then Comcast is going after Fox.

 

[Big Bang]

Very likely, hate to say. Most anaylsts predict the deal will go through partially since Judge Leon has had a history of approving similar mergers before but keep in mind that just because they might get approval doesn’t mean Time Warner is in the clear as the DOJ could appeal the decision not to mention there’s might some concessions stipulated by the Judge that AT&T wouldn’t be open to agreeing to (like selling off CNN or something) that might send a signal to Fox shareholders & Murdoch that a Comcast deal (even if they ultimately abandon the Disney deal in favor of Comcast) might face similar pushback from the DOJ no matter how much more alluring their All-cash bid and improved regulatory provisions are. That and it could make Comcast think twice about bidding(though they will).

Turner Broadcasting. One possible stipulation is they divest either them or DirectTV. Without Turner, the deal is effectively dead since AT&T is shooting to harvest advertising revenue from the sports and news channels.

AT&T won't divest DirectTV either since they overpaid for them by a considerable margin. They'd have to eat a few billion in write downs if they were to divest them.

 

[Detective Conan]

AT&T Judge Could Clear Time Warner Deal With ‘No Blackout’ Fix

Here’s a part of the article I find most intriguing. I highly recommmed everyone here read the full article linked above especially before the AT&T/Time Warner merger is decided upon tommorow on June 12th. It’s quite insightful.

The Justice Department has proposed an alternative to stopping the deal: requiring the sale of Turner Broadcasting or DirecTV. Divesting either business would eliminate AT&T’s ability to gain leverage over rival distributors and head off potentially higher costs for Turner’s programming, according to the government. The Justice Department’s antitrust division chief Makan Delrahim pushed for the sale of either business before filing the lawsuit in November. That stance reflects Delrahim’s view that competition problems arising from a merger should be fixed by selling assets rather than putting behavioral conditions on how a company conducts business.

AT&T refused, saying either scenario would destroy the purpose of the deal: to combine Turner channels with DirecTV’s network.

Hmm.

 

[Iceman]

It offers some strategy to either Comcast or Disney in getting a deal done if there are parts of Fox they are willing to let go off.

 

[Zarex]

According to a CNBC article, a key aspect of Kabletown's strategy is getting the Mouse into a bidding war that will drop Disney's stock and make an all cash offer more attractive.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/11/com...on-wednesday-if-att-time-warner-approved.html

But what about Kabletown's stock? Well, according to an Bloomberg report Brian Roberts is CEO for life and can pay his own stock dropping no nevermind!

I still have faith Iger comes out of this with something, but it's going to get messy.

 

[Marvel united]

Disney has to have somehing up their sleeve

 

[Detective Conan]

According to a CNBC article, a key aspect of Kabletown's strategy is getting the Mouse into a bidding war that will drop Disney's stock and make an all cash offer more attractive.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/11/com...on-wednesday-if-att-time-warner-approved.html

But what about Kabletown's stock? Well, according to an Bloomberg report Brian Roberts is CEO for life and can pay his own stock dropping no nevermind!

I still have faith Iger comes out of this with something, but it's going to get messy.

You mean billions of dollars in break-up fees or some piece of the Fox pie? There’s no way Iger is getting any of the Fox assets if the deal goes south unless he works out a deal with Roberts and splits the Fox assets with him(unlikely seeing as both of them would be very unwilling to cooperate with each other). Iger would save himself a lot of trouble if he let’s goes of Sky and focus on finalizing the deal with Fox but it’s clear he may view Sky as more valuable than the Fox assets so yeah this is going to get hairy.

Roberts is very tenacious and not risk-adverse so he’s unafraid of his company’s stock plummeting as long as he gets both Fox and Sky. It’s going to be interesting once the judge inevitably approves of the Time Warner/AT&T merger tommorow what kind of approval will it be and what effect will it have overall on the industry at large, especially on Comcast’s actions the next few days.

Comcast will be eagerly awaiting the ruling tommorow...and so will we.