The Rebooted "Keep Hope Alive" (that the rights can revert back to Marvel) Thread - - - - - - - - - - Part 19

[Bach]

Disney is an enormously popular brand, and I have no doubt a streaming service rife with all-ages branded Disney, Pixar, Star Wars and Marvel content would be extremely successful. But they can't include adult oriented content on Disneyflix (or Disneylife) without tarnishing the brand.

Age verification.

 

[Zarex]

Age verification.

Age verification or no, you can't have "Lusty Cheerleaders" as a streaming option on a Disney branded service.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

I'm thinking it will be LOADED with Star Wars, MCU, Pixar and Disney animated and live action movies. Also classic cartoons, Disney Channel shows, Pixar shorts, Marvel cartoons, Star Wars cartoons, etc. Parents are going to pay for it.

Heck, it boggles my mind how much content they have. Every Disney film, every Touchstone film, every Marvel film, every ABC TV show (Love Boat, Fantasy Island, Starsky and Hutch, Kung Fu ... okay, I'm old, but my point is ABC has a lot of shows covering a lot of eras), every Disney Channel show, ESPN content etc. etc. etc.

I can't even wrap my head around all the content they could potentially offer even without Fox.

 

[MasterCat]

Heck, it boggles my mind how much content they have. Every Disney film, every Touchstone film, every Marvel film, every ABC TV show (Love Boat, Fantasy Island, Starsky and Hutch, Kung Fu ... okay, I'm old, but my point is ABC has a lot of shows covering a lot of eras), every Disney Channel show, ESPN content etc. etc. etc.

I can't even wrap my head around all the content they could potentially offer even without Fox.

They're keeping streaming ESPN separate, though. It's a bit of a red flag... if they're smart, they WILL offer everything you mentioned and more in one service. The whole ABC library (unless there's old stuff they consider too mature for the brand), the whole Disney Channel library, at least one Marvel cartoon per superhero/team, Clone Wars, the Disney Animated canon, the MCU, every Pixar film...

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

Age verification or no, you can't have "Lusty Cheerleaders" as a streaming option on a Disney branded service.

If they get Fox, they're going to have a lot of R-Rated content they'll want to distribute. And even things like Family Guy and Simpsons won't fit the 'Disney' image, so I'd expect them to have some sort of multiple 'channels' available with the streaming package.

 

[MasterCat]

If they get Fox, they're going to have a lot of R-Rated content they'll want to distribute. And even things like Family Guy and Simpsons won't fit the 'Disney' image, so I'd expect them to have some sort of multiple 'channels' available with the streaming package.

No, no, that's what owning 60% of Hulu is for.

 

[GoblinScrier]

I would say that Comcast would probably have to pay an approximate 20% "risk premium". That means Comcast would have to go to approximately $85 billion plus $1.5 billion break-up fee or $86-$87 billion just to match Disney's current bid (and still not be a clear winner at that point).

And at that point, Fox's $15 billion debt would push Comcast to over $100 billion total debt.

Willie, I have always enjoyed you on here as someone who I agree with on lots of things especially with the F4/Doom/Galactus etc but I have to ask, is business also a passion of yours? You seem to know a lot of the legalese in regards to this deal? Its pretty cool

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

They're keeping streaming ESPN separate, though. It's a bit of a red flag... if they're smart, they WILL offer everything you mentioned and more in one service. The whole ABC library (unless there's old stuff they consider too mature for the brand), the whole Disney Channel library, at least one Marvel cartoon per superhero/team, Clone Wars, the Disney Animated canon, the MCU, every Pixar film...

My go-to service is Vudu, and I've always wanted to get Kung Fu and Starsky on Hutch on there, but they're not available.

Not that I think of it, a lot of the old TV shows I've tried to find on Vudu but couldn't are ABC shows, so Disney may have been planning this for a long time and holding back those shows from broader distribution.

 

[Spider-Fan]

No, no, that's what owning 60% of Hulu is for.

Exactly.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

Willie, I have always enjoyed you on here as someone who I agree with on lots of things especially with the F4/Doom/Galactus etc but I have to ask, is business also a passion of yours? You seem to know a lot of the legalese in regards to this deal? Its pretty cool

Passion? No. Necessity? Yes. I'm the technical manager of a small company. I report to the president and all the other managers report to me. So my primary interest is in the R&D, production, quality etc., but I get forced to also deal with the business aspects... and I've had a LOT of meetings with lawyers
over the past 30 years that I wish I could have avoided. ... but as much as I tried to just sleep through the meetings and ignore it all, some information seeped in.

 

[Iceman]

Heard Disney may be forced to raise their Sky bid.

 

[wobbly]

With egos playing a factor I can't help wondering about Roberts, does he want to make a big offer for it to be turned down or would he save more face if he was to bow out earlier. Going all in only to be rejected would be a bit of a slap in the face.

Roberts could walk away now and claim a big win. He got Iger to spend near $20 billion more than the originally accepted offer. That's no small change to get a bitter rival to pay up.

Add to that it leaves Comcast in a better position to outbid all comers for the majority stake in Sky.

But I don't know what Roberts is thinking here. If he won't be happy with that and views Fox as the big prize he must have then he is gonna have to go crazy (and recklessly so) with his next bid.

 

[Big Bang]

But he will need bring something big to the table if he goes to the shareholders directly, he needs to offer them enough that they are willing to turn down a guaranteed deal right now and instead go for a possible deal in at least 6 months, a year or more if the US Government tries to block the deal. If Murdoch is backing the Disney bid then that is about 17% lost right there, then there are plenty of other shareholders who will play it safe and take the Disney deal. It will take a lot of convincing or an awful lot of money to make the majority take the risk.



And with these trade wars building would people prefer to get their money/stock sooner rather than later?

Maybe he will. Maybe his strategy is to gather enough votes to scuttle the deal. Which I don't think will succeed.

It's a tough situation for Disney, Comcast, AT&T and National Amusements, who have billions invested in networks and traditional cable packages. They can't decide to go full streaming all the time like Netflix without crashing the value. They'll continue to dip their toes without full OTT commitment, like Disney is doing with ESPN Plus, but they are at a disadvantage to pure streamers.

If you ask me, National Amusements is on the way out the door. They don't have the leverage to piece together an organization that can scale up. The whole disastrous situation with the court battle with CBS shows that the Redstone's just are not trusted anymore. I expect for them to sell off CBS at some point, and Viacom as well if it doesn't get broken up.

There is going to be a transition of some sort with studios slowly switching to streaming. It wouldn't surprise me if it starts with channel consolidations first. The OTT trend is just too strong to not adjust to it.

Speaking of which, I'm curious as to what Iger's streaming strategy will be going forward. Are they going to use the Hulu/Disneyflix/ESPN+ triumverate as their Netflix killer? One of the big appeals of Netflix is that it is a one stop shop with a low monthly fee. Marketing multiple services is going to look an awful lot like the cable packages folks are moving away from.

Not consolidating whatever their OTT product is going to be along with Hulu is a bit of a head scratcher for me. Netflix being a one stop shop only added to its popularity. The other aspect to it that doesn't get much attention, is their filtering and profile system. They have a wide range of content, and you can easily make it child friendly. This is the established model that Disney ought to use. Besides, you can find Disney content alongside edgier rated R content already in Netflix. People don't seem to have an issues with it.

How much money Disney would get for the 39% of Sky is also a valid question.

Thanks for the breakdown. The financials will work in Disney's favor should they decide they can live without Sky, and even get a few assets out of Comcast. They'd be in a position to also pay down some of the debt.

 

[Big Bang]

My go-to service is Vudu, and I've always wanted to get Kung Fu and Starsky on Hutch on there, but they're not available.

Not that I think of it, a lot of the old TV shows I've tried to find on Vudu but couldn't are ABC shows, so Disney may have been planning this for a long time and holding back those shows from broader distribution.

I've long noticed that quite a bit (if not all) of TV content owned by Disney isn't available on a lot of services. Amazon seems to have some kind of exclusivity contract for that content. Maybe Apple as well. Quite annoying really.

 

[Zarex]

Not consolidating whatever their OTT product is going to be along with Hulu is a bit of a head scratcher for me. Netflix being a one stop shop only added to its popularity. The other aspect to it that doesn't get much attention, is their filtering and profile system. They have a wide range of content, and you can easily make it child friendly. This is the established model that Disney ought to use. Besides, you can find Disney content alongside edgier rated R content already in Netflix. People don't seem to have an issues with it.

Well, you can put Disney content on the Hulu service, but putting adult content on a Disney branded service is a problem. Consolidating the Disney and ESPN+ services under the Hulu banner makes some sense, but you could be sacrificing parents who are only interested in a "pure" Disney branded service.

My thinking would be for Disney to sell of their (potential) majority stake in Hulu to an interested buyer (Verizon? Apple?), with a long term contract that puts the product not fit for Disneyflix on the service.

 

[Bach]

Age verification or no, you can't have "Lusty Cheerleaders" as a streaming option on a Disney branded service.

I don't really think it's a good idea to put some products in a platform and some in another platform. People will be like: "I want to watch all there is in the MCU, but for that I need to pay multiple suscriptions? Sorry, but f*** off." Some TV shows would have much less views, which would translate to Disney believing that such shows are a waste of money, which would lead to cancellations.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

Well, you can put Disney content on the Hulu service, but putting adult content on a Disney branded service is a problem. Consolidating the Disney and ESPN+ services under the Hulu banner makes some sense, but you could be sacrificing parents who are only interested in a "pure" Disney branded service.

My thinking would be for Disney to sell of their (potential) majority stake in Hulu to an interested buyer (Verizon? Apple?), with a long term contract that puts the product not fit for Disneyflix on the service.

I don't really think it's a good idea to put some products in a platform and some in another platform. People will be like: "I want to watch all there is in the MCU, but for that I need to pay multiple suscriptions? Sorry, but f*** off." Some TV shows would have much less views, which would translate to Disney believing that such shows are a waste of money, which would lead to cancellations.

Has anybody ever said their Streaming service would have a "Disney" theme or be overtly connected to Disney?

One thing that makes me ask that question is Disney used to have "Disney Movies Anywhere" that allowed you to view your purchased Disney (and Marvel, Touchstone etc.) films. They discontinued that service and created "Movies Anywhere" which allows you to watch any digital movies you purchased on Vudu, Amazon etc. I don't know how this will all tie in (if at all), but I suspect this has all been in the planning for a while and part of their long-term plan. I can watch all of my R movies on the Disney owned "Movies Anywhere" platform.

They could easily roll their streaming service into "Movies Anywhere" so that in addition to the movies you own, there will be a list of movies available to you as a subscriber (on Amazon, I have a choice between movies I own and those available to me as an Amazon Prime member - if I cancelled my Prime subscription, I'd still have the movies I own).

 

[Marvel united]

I'm starting to have hope, again. Fox still thinks Comcast carries a much higher risk of regulatory scrutiny and the DOJ are very close to approving the Disney deal. Do you guys think it's possible that if it gets approved this year - we might see the rights acquisition start to take shape in the MCU? Like say, Galactus in a post-credits scene, mutant/X-Men Easter eggs etc? I'm guessing James Gunn could even add a small role for Silver Surfer into the script of GOTG3

 

[Detective Conan]

I'm starting to have hope, again. Fox still thinks Comcast carries a much higher risk of regulatory scrutiny and the DOJ are very close to approving the Disney deal. Do you guys think it's possible that if it gets approved this year - we might see the rights acquisition start to take shape in the MCU? Like say, Galactus in a post-credits scene, mutant/X-Men Easter eggs etc? I'm guessing James Gunn could even add a small role for Silver Surfer into the script of GOTG3

While it's very unlikely you'll see something like a Wolverine cameo in any of the phase 4 films(it'd be too soon) you might get a Galactus/Silver Surfer stinger at the end of Avengers 4(whatever its eventually called). And oh speaking about Galactus...

 

[Marvel united]

While it's very unlikely you'll see something like a Wolverine cameo in any of the phase 4 films(it'd be too soon) you might get a Galactus/Silver Surfer stinger at the end of Avengers 4(whatever its eventually called). And oh speaking about Galactus...

Uhhh, I don't think Marvel is going to wait all the way till Phase 5 to introduce Wolverine. Especially if they acquire the rights this year. Logan can be cast in another MCU long before the first MCU X-Men movie happens which should be no later than 2021. The seeds could be planted as early as next year.

Fishburne as Galactus would be awesome I would have preferred him for Galactus in the 2007 film too.

 

[MasterCat]

Logan can be cast in another MCU long before the first MCU X-Men movie happens which should be no later than 2021. The seeds could be planted as early as next year.

You're expecting Feige to postpone The Eternals, his current plan for 2021's new thing?

 

[Marvel united]

You're expecting Feige to postpone The Eternals, his current plan for 2021's new thing?

If it means bringing the X-Men in first: An MCU reboot that Feige has wanted for a decade now, yes? The Marvel film slate is very flexible and it can easily change. As soon as the deal is finalized, Feige and the MS crew can begin development on the new properties.

 

[Detective Conan]

Uhhh, I don't think Marvel is going to wait all the way till Phase 5 to introduce Wolverine. Especially if they acquire the rights this year. Logan can be cast in another MCU long before the first MCU X-Men movie happens which should be no later than 2021. The seeds could be planted as early as next year.

They would if they had full access to him(like literally owned him) and not on a 'sharing' deal like they had on their deal with Spider-Man with Sony; so Marvel wouldn't want to press the reset-button too soon after Logan like they did with Spidey. There needs to be a good while before we see the clawed mutant in the MCU. I don't need Logan to appear in another MCU film before an X-film. A cameo in the first MCU X-Men film where he doesn't appear in the rest of the movie until the very end is enough to set him up without pointlessly shoehorning him in other character's movies.

 

[Big Bang]

Sky confused why Fox hasn't increased its bid, thinks Fox may drop out

"Fox and Disney are working together to decide if Fox will again bid for Sky. Fox doesn't have to bump its bid yet, and Sky isn't ready to put either bid to a shareholder vote. But several people close to Sky thought an increased bid would come at the same time Disney bumped its bid for Fox.

It could be that Disney is signaling to Comcast that it's willing to let Sky go if Comcast will give up on Fox, said Jonathan Chaplin, an analyst at New Street Research. Disney and Comcast can't directly communicate about splitting any of the Fox assets unless Fox releases Disney from its already-signed merger agreement. If Disney doesn't bid again on Sky, perhaps Comcast lets them take Fox for $38 a share, and Comcast walks away with Sky, and you don't force each side to overpay massively," said Chaplin. "They could save each other a lot of hassle."

Things are getting interesting.

Meanwhile, Fox just signed WWE to fill some of its Thursday programming. Seems Fox is really starting to head to more sports and news content.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/tv/news/w...-moves-to-fox-broadcasting-in-2019/ar-AAzcZPI

 

[Dark Raven]

My go-to service is Vudu, and I've always wanted to get Kung Fu and Starsky on Hutch on there, but they're not available.

Not that I think of it, a lot of the old TV shows I've tried to find on Vudu but couldn't are ABC shows, so Disney may have been planning this for a long time and holding back those shows from broader distribution.

Why do you want to watch Kung Fu? That's boring. I tried to rewatch it about 2 or 3 years ago and was bored out of my brain. I used to watch it when I was younger. It was so slow and the fighting was even worse than I remember (and I remembered it was quite bad).

David Carradine had trouble doing any kicks above shin level for the other person, and was very bland in his personality. He always spoke like this: "I do not wish... to fight."

I thought it might even have at least some story value or philosophy value, but even that was dull. It's like being subjected to Fant4stic and then falling asleep early on only to wake up and see the screen saying "one year later".