The Rebooted "Keep Hope Alive" (that the rights can revert back to Marvel) Thread - - - - - - - - - - Part 19

[WeaponXCII]

I think an X-Men film is a considerably bigger undertaking than a Spidey or F4, especially when trying to place it in a mature MCU universe with a lot of existing history. For that reason I think the gap would be longer, although that wouldn't have to stop them dropping cameos in as soon as they wanted.

Exactly. I get the feeling (I could definitely be wrong, though), that some think there'll be no activity with the X-Men and FF until 2021 or so with full-length movies.

If you ask me, post-credits scenes are the way to go- they've already introduced so many characters and concepts.

Question is, how do they do it organically? What movies work best for FF/X-Men characters. Especially since we know know so little about the definitive slate of movies after phase 3 (nine untitled movies in phase 4). Maybe we should throw around ideas?

I'm thinking this. Spider-Man: Homecoming 2: it's the end of the school day at Midtown. Getting into Aunt May's car, Peter shouts "Catch you later, Johnny!". Cut to a blue-eyed blond kid getting a ride from his similar-looking sister.... I dunno- it's getting late and I'm certainly no screenwriter. What ya guys got?

 

[ironwez20]

I think they are going to pepper in the xmenand FF aswell. Just have them make cameos and throw in refrences and build up to the eventual movies. Like I think the FF bought the avengers tower and I think the public will blame the mutants for everyone disapearing even though thanos did it.

 

[Marvel united]

I'm just confused as to why the regulatory proceess speed up and whether this means should Disney close the deal whether we could see it starting to take shape as early as next year

 

[Detective Conan]

I'm just confused as to why the regulatory proceess speed up and whether this means should Disney close the deal whether we could see it starting to take shape as early as next year

Don’t think this is the actual approval where it’s “Yeah it’s a done deal” as there are still some T’s that have to be crossed before the final approval is reached which means Comcast could still derail things but it is a huge step to getting the deal sealed.

 

[ADollarADay]

Or perhaps one of the stipulations that Disney agreed to in order for them to buy the merchandise from Sony(the dumbest thing Sony ever did which is way, way more dumber than refusing to pay 25 million dollars for characters considered at the time to be ‘low tier’ is sell off the toy rights) is that the film rights be transferable in case of a buyout. Disney might have agreed to that since the real money isn’t in the movies but the merchandise.

Case in point: In 2014, Spidey took in more money in merchandising than all the other superhero characters did(even the Avengers). Literally 1.3 billion dollars — so there is a strong possibility that Disney may have agreed to a deal that would allow for film rights to be transferable in exchange for an aspect of Spider-Man where the real money lies which is the toys. There’s no way The Mouse(the merchandising king BTW) would view the film rights as more valuable than the merchandising. No way.

So sorry to burst your hopes, there but I’d say it’s very likely the Spidey film rights are transferable.

We have the 2011 contract. The amendment did not change anything about transfer of rights.

http://forums.superherohype.com/showthread.php?t=537939&highlight=

• Disney pays Sony 280MM plus 3.5% of each film's BO gross (with a limit of 35MM per film and 130MM every 10 years) to buy them out of merchandising participation
• SPE does not have to pay a rights extension fee or a licensing fee to Disney
• Sony pays Disney 100MM to buy them out of each film's participation gross, essentially Disney pays Sony to use Spider-man in movies

Unfortunately we don't have the 2015 contract. The only thing we know with 100% certainty is that the fees Disney must pay Sony for the BO gross was changed. It is quite possible that section of the contract was changed as well and the rights cannot be transfered if the studio is bought out, but unless the North Koreans hack Sony again and we get the 2015 leaked amended contract then we won't know.

 

[Detective Conan]

We have the 2011 contract. The amendment did not change anything about transfer of rights.

http://forums.superherohype.com/showthread.php?t=537939&highlight=



Unfortunately we don't have the 2015 contract. The only thing we know with 100% certainty is that the fees Disney must pay Sony for the BO gross was changed. It is quite possible that section of the contract was changed as well and the rights cannot be transfered if the studio is bought out, but unless the North Koreans hack Sony again and we get the 2015 leaked amended contract then we won't know.

Man would I kill to know what the current contracts are for the FF & X-Men(which I know are seperate deals).

 

[MasterCat]

Exactly. I get the feeling (I could definitely be wrong, though), that some think there'll be no activity with the X-Men and FF until 2021 or so with full-length movies.

Nobody's said anything less. The disagreement seems to be between 2021 and "5 or 6 years from now."

If you ask me, post-credits scenes are the way to go- they've already introduced so many characters and concepts.

The post-credits scenes are basically 30-second ads for the sequel, or a different movie coming out next year. That's too short to do anything with a character, and beneath any good actor.
The big issue with the X-Men is that while the "team" can start as young high school kids, the "setting" has A-list characters who have had their powers for decades. That needs to fit in with a universe where all "enhanced individuals" have been accounted for for years.
Mystery is Wolverine's schtick, so Logan could bump into another hero with no memory of where he was during Avengers and Civil War. Erik could catch up with Wanda after having been in hiding for awhile (he should probably be her grandfather, with the elder Maximoffs as her biological parents per recent retcon). And Mystique and her teenage daughter Rogue would make good Captain Marvel 2 villains.

 

[ADollarADay]

Some back of the napkin math that I did on another forum:

Disney is under leveraged at 1.04x as of March 2018. If they close the deal at $38/share they would go to 3.2x or 3.4x (don't remember which one) if the rest of Sky is not purchased, 4x if the rest of Sky is purchased. This is assuming a 50/50 cash/stock transaction. They could definitely go higher. However if most FOX/FOXA shareholders were to choose cash then they'd be way overleveraged.

For comparison, CMCSA is currently at 2.95x as of March 2018. At $35/share for FOX and 6B cash on hand, their leverage was going to go to ~4.5x. Assuming they go up to $45 per share, their leverage would be ~5.1x. It's certainly doable that Comcast can still raise its bid, but whenever leverage gets over 4x people start getting antsy. I know I don't like it, but I can't even vote on it. They could also do a cash/stock counter bid, but their stock is down what? 18% this year? That's the reason they don't want to do a stock/cash transaction because CMCSA is severely undervalued right now.

Man would I kill to know what the current contracts are for the FF & X-Men(which I know are seperate deals).

We know some things:

Marvel only gets 2% of the BO gross for X-Men movies
6 years 11 months to start production, probably 8 years 11 months to release a new FF movie
XMen movies probably have to release every 3 years to keep the right

 

[Jaiden Edo]

Come on, Feige. You have a successor for Thanos in Dr Doom. Don't let this opportunity slip through your fingers.

 

[ImSGirl95]

Come on, Feige. You have a successor for Thanos in Dr Doom. Don't let this opportunity slip threw your fingers.

I don't think it's up to Feige to decide it if Disney buys Fox or not.

 

[Jaiden Edo]

I don't think it's up to Feige to decide it if Disney buys Fox or not.

I know but still.

 

[First Avenger]

https://***********/YahooFinance/status/1009527953238167555?s=19

 

[Protar]

I don't understand the discussion of burying Dark Phoenix. Spiderman was rebooted into the MCU just two years after TASM2. Assuming they don't move around their planned slate until 2022, it'll be 2023 at the earliest that we see a proper X-man film in the MCU. Plenty of time for Dark Phoenix and New Mutants to release, make some cash and send off the Foxmen franchise.

 

[The Infernal]

I don't understand the discussion of burying Dark Phoenix. Spiderman was rebooted into the MCU just two years after TASM2. Assuming they don't move around their planned slate until 2022, it'll be 2023 at the earliest that we see a proper X-man film in the MCU. Plenty of time for Dark Phoenix and New Mutants to release, make some cash and send off the Foxmen franchise.

Imagine the same situation just prior to the release if Fant4stic. You don't think Disney/Marvel would want to protect their potential? Shelving Dark Phoenix and/or New Mutants could save the brand reputation from further damage and make a reboot less of a risk.

There's also the option to potentially release them in Disney's streaming service.

As far as the Marvel slate goes, we don't know their plans. For all we know they could have similar plans to Spider-man in Civil War. We could be seeing the X-men and/or FF sooner than we think.

 

[Dark Raven]

I don't understand the discussion of burying Dark Phoenix. Spiderman was rebooted into the MCU just two years after TASM2. Assuming they don't move around their planned slate until 2022, it'll be 2023 at the earliest that we see a proper X-man film in the MCU. Plenty of time for Dark Phoenix and New Mutants to release, make some cash and send off the Foxmen franchise.

The difference is that Dark Phoenix is a big storyline and not just a character. ASM2 was not a particular storyline so wouldn't affect future films. ASM, on the other hand, is the origin storyline and Marvel didn't get to do that because it had now been done twice.

At the moment DP has only been done once in X3 but if the film with that title is released it will have been done twice.

If they can help it, Marvel should not allow DP to be released so it won't interfere with any potential future plans. And at the moment they can help it since it hasn't been released and they're on the verge of getting the full rights back, which wasn't the case with Spidey where it would only be usage and not full rights.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

I think with or without Dark Phoenix, Marvel should give the "X-Men" a rest.

But that doesn't mean they can't start introducing individual characters and the concept of mutants into the MCU.

Just don't do a film with Professor X, Cyclops, Jean Grey etc. all as an established team.

The important part is to let audiences know "this is completely different" and not a continuation or soft reboot of that other crap.

For the most part, Fox's damage has already been done and it doesn't make a big difference if Apocalypse or DP ends up being the final Fox X-Men.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

The difference is that Dark Phoenix is a big storyline and not just a character. ASM2 was not a particular storyline so wouldn't affect future films. ASM, on the other hand, is the origin storyline and Marvel didn't get to do that because it had now been done twice.

At the moment DP has only been done once in X3 but if the film with that title is released it will have been done twice.

If they can help it, Marvel should not allow DP to be released so it won't interfere with any potential future plans. And at the moment they can help it since it hasn't been released and they're on the verge of getting the full rights back, which wasn't the case with Spidey where it would only be usage and not full rights.

There are literally an infinite number of storylines they could do. Dark Pheonix done right might be sort of cool, and in an ideal world, it would be nice to not have Fox crap out another one, but I don't think the lack of that one storyline will hamstring Marvel in any meaningful way.

 

[Protar]

The difference is that Dark Phoenix is a big storyline and not just a character. ASM2 was not a particular storyline so wouldn't affect future films. ASM, on the other hand, is the origin storyline and Marvel didn't get to do that because it had now been done twice.

At the moment DP has only been done once in X3 but if the film with that title is released it will have been done twice.

If they can help it, Marvel should not allow DP to be released so it won't interfere with any potential future plans. And at the moment they can help it since it hasn't been released and they're on the verge of getting the full rights back, which wasn't the case with Spidey where it would only be usage and not full rights.

I just feel like they are going to take things pretty slowly with the X-men, rather than shifting things around and rushing them out like they did with Spiderman. The MCU's whole shtick is taking its' time to build things up so it could well be another decade after DP before we see that storyline tackle again, probably in a very different style. If you spend a few films seeding the X-men in other MCU films, by the time you actually get to an X-men feature in say 2023, any damage done to the brand will be healed imo.

 

[Flint Marko]

https://***********/YahooFinance/status/1009527953238167555?s=19

Wait so the US government would’ve had more of an issue w Comcast than Disney? Interesting.

 

[Dark Raven]

What could Comcast do to win over Murdoch and the US government and make Disney seem unappealing now?

Is there anything he can do? Does simply offering more money work? Or is it over for him? Will he even know when to throw in the towel? Or does he think he's like Cap who can do this all day?

 

[Chip Chipperson]

Does Comcast have any infinity stones?

That’s the only way

 

[Big Bang]

Wait so the US government would’ve had more of an issue w Comcast than Disney? Interesting.

Yes. Comcast is a content distributor as well as an ISP. Disney is neither. Plus Comcast already owns NBCUniversal, so doubling that content production in light of their distribution (albeit regional) presents issues.


Comcast is better off picking up smaller production companies. Like they did with Dreamworks.

 

[Big Bang]

Does Comcast have any infinity stones?

That’s the only way

Does Xfinity count?

 

[Zarex]

The difference is that Dark Phoenix is a big storyline and not just a character. ASM2 was not a particular storyline so wouldn't affect future films. ASM, on the other hand, is the origin storyline and Marvel didn't get to do that because it had now been done twice.

At the moment DP has only been done once in X3 but if the film with that title is released it will have been done twice.

If they can help it, Marvel should not allow DP to be released so it won't interfere with any potential future plans. And at the moment they can help it since it hasn't been released and they're on the verge of getting the full rights back, which wasn't the case with Spidey where it would only be usage and not full rights.

Dark Phoenix was a terrific comic book back in the day, but I'm hoping Feige and company don't have any plans to revive it. The "Woman gains great power - but can't control it!" story was done with both Jean and Wanda and is more than a tad outdated. Let Writer/Director/Producer Simon Kinberg bury Dark Phoenix for good and have the X-Men start fresh in the MCU.

 

[Dark Raven]

It seems to be a news drought at the moment.