The Rebooted "Keep Hope Alive" (that the rights can revert back to Marvel) Thread - - - - - - - - - - - Part 20

[First Avenger]

So that's another good news for us?

 

[ImSGirl95]

What is this ?!?

https://www.cbr.com/fox-disney-merger-shareholder-lawsuit/

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

What is this ?!?

https://www.cbr.com/fox-disney-merger-shareholder-lawsuit/

Unless Disney and Fox really screwed something up (unlikely considering the resources being devoted), it will either be thrown out of court or Disney/Fox will clarify the numbers.

It's highly unlikely this will delay the vote.

 

[Big Bang]

Unless Disney and Fox really screwed something up (unlikely considering the resources being devoted), it will either be thrown out of court or Disney/Fox will clarify the numbers.

It's highly unlikely this will delay the vote.

It's a shareholder that is trying to drive up the share price higher. Very likely will be dismissed.

No way Disney lawyers missed anything.

 

[Chip Chipperson]

It’s nothing

A list ditch effort in every sense of the phrase. Comcast is done.

 

[Dark Raven]

What is this ?!?

https://www.cbr.com/fox-disney-merger-shareholder-lawsuit/

Don't worry about it. It's just one of the FFINO defenders still trying to make their Last Stand.

 

[Detective Conan]

Comcast has been planning for three weeks now to respond to Disney’s aggressive $71.3 billion bid for most of 21st Century Fox. It hasn’t returned to the bargaining table for a few reasons, one of which is the sizable amount of debt the deal will require, which is already dragging down its stock. Also, the clock is ticking, with Fox and Disney shareholders set to vote on the deal July 27.
Multiple sources indicate that talks have continued between Comcast and outside companies — everyone from private equity firms to fellow media concerns to tech giants. These players could become strategic partners, taking on certain key assets and helping lighten the financial burden and also lower regulatory hurdles to a deal. The list of invitees at Sun Valley includes the very moguls who have been jockeying for screen supremacy, including Comcast’s Brian Roberts, Disney’s Bob Iger and the Murdoch family. From the tech world, Amazon’s Jeff Bezos, Apple CEO Tim Cook, Netflix chief Reed Hastings and Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg could all make the scene.

https://deadline.com/2018/07/sun-valley-retreat-2018-fox-deal-media-chatter-preview-1202423414/


The real curiosity is that even if Comcast did get partners would the DOJ/Fox shareholders be fine with splitting the assets with a partner or two?

 

[MasterCat]

Reed Hastings
Too bad Disney will be cutting ties with his company. I bet he could get a Fantastic 4 cartoon out quickly.

 

[Big Bang]

https://deadline.com/2018/07/sun-valley-retreat-2018-fox-deal-media-chatter-preview-1202423414/

The real curiosity is that even if Comcast did get partners would the DOJ/Fox shareholders be fine with splitting the assets with a partner or two?

I doubt Fox would be OK with having anyone from FAANG gain control of the assets. Many of the major shareholders want a say in a combined media company, and in any FAANG outcome, they get pushed out.

 

[Big Bang]

Fox is set to raise its bid for Sky to $33 Billion, +$4 Billion over Comcast's last bid.

https://www.fiercecable.com/video/fox-prepping-33b-bid-for-sky-to-fight-off-comcast-report

 

[Bach]

Now that's interesting. What are their chances of getting Sky over Comcast?

 

[ImSGirl95]

Fox is set to raise its bid for Sky to $33 Billion, +$4 Billion over Comcast's last bid.

https://www.fiercecable.com/video/fox-prepping-33b-bid-for-sky-to-fight-off-comcast-report

What does this mean for the Disney deal?

 

[ADollarADay]

Submitted my vote for FOX, FOXA, and DIS. I hope it doesn't change and the date sticks as I will have limited internet connectivity in the next coming days as I'm trying to get away from the real world after closing on some properties.

Reed Hastings
Too bad Disney will be cutting ties with his company. I bet he could get a Fantastic 4 cartoon out quickly.

He wouldn't be allowed to even if the assets were split and NFLX got the FF rights from Fox.

Fox is set to raise its bid for Sky to $33 Billion, +$4 Billion over Comcast's last bid.

https://www.fiercecable.com/video/fox-prepping-33b-bid-for-sky-to-fight-off-comcast-report

Interesting. This might be the real battleground.

 

[Big Bang]

What does this mean for the Disney deal?

It means if Comcast really wants Sky and Fox, they now have to actively battle Disney and Fox on both fronts.

As the bids for Sky are driven up, Comcast's debt increases (should they close any deal). The battle for Sky could drive Comcast away from Fox.

 

[Marvel united]

I doubt Fox would be OK with having anyone from FAANG gain control of the assets. Many of the major shareholders want a say in a combined media company, and in any FAANG outcome, they get pushed out.

I've always been worried about any member of FAANG getting involved since they dwarf Disney.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

If Comcast tries to partner with other companies, it could raise an interesting point.

We've always assumed the FF and X-Men rights weren't transferable, but as long as Comcast buys "Fox Studios" the rights would come with that entity.

If Comcast and another company start dividing up assets, the idea of them buying that entity and the rights going with that entity could become more ambiguous.

Disney might, in that case, be able to make the argument that the entity they licensed the rights to no longer exists and then the rights would revert automatically.

 

[MasterCat]

And we know Disney can get the best lawyers in the world, or copyright terms wouldn't be so long.

 

[Big Bang]

I've always been worried about any member of FAANG getting involved since they dwarf Disney.

It's worth noting that none of the FAANG entities want to be in legacy media. Most of Fox's assets are tightly intertwined with broadcast, cable, and theatrical business models which all contrast their business models. It simply makes no fiscal sense to buy a major studio and then try to get them to completely change their business model. That sets them up for considerable short term losses, and eventual loss of talent. Every single one of them prefer to move a lot quicker, which is why they pretty much just follow the Netflix model and buy content directly.

Heck, there was a recent article where AT&T is already telling HBO they need to become more like Netflix, and focus on content and digital distribution. AT&T has already admitted that endeavor is going to take years to accomplish. Yet, compared to FAANG, AT&T is at an advantage because of their cable TV business, while the former do not. The long term strategy works for them, but in the near term isn't as advantageous.

At the end of the day, FAANG has a distinct advantage of not being tied down by legacy baggage, and that isn't likely to change.

 

[Big Bang]

UK Gov will announce its decision on Thursday to clear Fox-Sky. Bidding war will commence then between Fox and Comcast. That could potentially delay any increased Comcast bid for Fox.

http://www.latimes.com/business/hollywood/la-fi-ct-fox-sky-comcast-20180710-story.html#

 

[Dark Raven]

What does that mean then? That Fox won't entertain bids from Comcast since they're bidding against them on Sky?

 

[Big Bang]

What does that mean then? That Fox won't entertain bids from Comcast since they're bidding against them on Sky?

Comcast has to fling significant cash in two separate directions. Good luck with that.

 

[Detective Conan]

UK Gov will announce its decision on Thursday to clear Fox-Sky. Bidding war will commence then between Fox and Comcast. That could potentially delay any increased Comcast bid for Fox.

http://www.latimes.com/business/hollywood/la-fi-ct-fox-sky-comcast-20180710-story.html#

How can you be so sure it'll delay any further Comcast bid for Fox? What if Roberts wants Star India(as well as the rest of Fox) more than Sky? If anything, wouldn't that merely cause them to give up on Sky and just focus on Fox? I'm rather skeptical that this news could mean that Kabletown puts a halt to any potential bid for the Fox assets from Fox. It really depends on what Roberts views as the more valuable asset. Does Roberts want Sky more or Fox more?

 

[Big Bang]

How can you be so sure it'll delay any further Comcast bid for Fox? What if Roberts wants Star India(as well as the rest of Fox) more than Sky? If anything, wouldn't that merely cause them to give up on Sky and just focus on Fox? I'm rather skeptical that this news could mean that Kabletown puts a halt to any potential bid for the Fox assets from Fox. It really depends on what Roberts views as the more valuable asset. Does Roberts want Sky more or Fox more?

Mostly the escalating costs involved. They are already north of $30 Billion with their opening Sky bid, and with when Fox increased their bid then in turn Comcast will have to up theirs (no pun intended). Cost wise, Sky presents the best opportunity for lower M&A cost and better ROI. The other side of that is that Comcast has a shorter window to respond.

Star India could theoretically be more important, but based on what they've said publicly, they seem to be higher on Sky.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

I've been having trouble wrapping my head around this whole Sky thing.

On the simplest level, the more time and resources Comcast spends going after Sky, the less they'll have to go after Fox.

... but since Fox owns a chunk of Sky, if Comcast REALLY wants Sky, they'll also REALLY want Fox to get that chunk (since it's not guaranteed Disney would sell to them).

I was watching CNBC this morning and they seem to think the Sky issue is making it less likely Comcast will increase their bid for Fox.

My current understanding (and it's still very confusing to me, so if someone feels they understand all this, please jump in and help me out): There is a UK law that, somehow, changes the value of Sky based on the value of Fox (and this is where I'm getting confused since it seems like the value of Sky would be set by the entities bidding directly for it), and because of this, if the price for Fox goes up (by an increased Comcast bid), the price for Sky will go up.

And since Comcast doesn't want the price for Sky to go up, they are rethinking their next move and might not bid again for Fox. It doesn't really make sense to me, but that seemed to be what they were saying on CNBC.

I seem to remember someone indicating that Sky would be sold as a whole. Will Fox/Disney be required to sell their Sky portion to Comcast in some way, and is that what's confusing me and/or adding to the complication?

Anyway, bottom line seems to be this is good for us. And even if it's not as complicated as all that, Comcast simply being distracted by and uncertain about Sky should work in our favor since it could get in the way of Comcast offering a new bid for Fox in the next two weeks.

Can anyone clarify any of this?

 

[Detective Conan]

"If Comcast does win Sky then it will reconsider whether to bid for Fox in part because of the power of this UK takeover panel to continue to push the cost of Sky higher if the cost for Fox goes higher."


[YT]AEJSk83SeHw[/YT]


Comcast is now fully focused on Sky. They are expected to respond to Fox's recent Sky bid within days.