The Rebooted "Keep Hope Alive" (that the rights can revert back to Marvel) Thread - - - - - - - - - - - Part 20

[Big Bang]

... but since Fox owns a chunk of Sky, if Comcast REALLY wants Sky, they'll also REALLY want Fox to get that chunk (since it's not guaranteed Disney would sell to them).

Not necessarily. Getting the majority 61% share puts them at a major advantage. Whoever gets Fox ends up a minority owner of Sky, with little recourse to ever get the rest. Since Comcast has certain rights that Disney will want, they have motivation to make a deal. I don't expect them to do one right away, but eventually there will be a deal of some sort.

I was watching CNBC this morning and they seem to think the Sky issue is making it less likely Comcast will increase their bid for Fox.

Yep. Comcast is getting stretched in different directions, and they don't have the headroom for the amount of debt it will take to win 2x bidding wars.

My current understanding (and it's still very confusing to me, so if someone feels they understand all this, please jump in and help me out): There is a UK law that, somehow, changes the value of Sky based on the value of Fox (and this is where I'm getting confused since it seems like the value of Sky would be set by the entities bidding directly for it), and because of this, if the price for Fox goes up (by an increased Comcast bid), the price for Sky will go up.

Yes. The argument is that the valuation of the 61% of Sky should increased based on the increased valuation of the 39% included in the Fox bidding war. This is where Comcast gets put into a bind.

And since Comcast doesn't want the price for Sky to go up, they are rethinking their next move and might not bid again for Fox. It doesn't really make sense to me, but that seemed to be what they were saying on CNBC.

It is very likely they can't/won't. If Roberts just has to have Sky, then he can't go after Fox. The amount of debt that is becoming necessary to win is increasing, and he can only go so far.

I seem to remember someone indicating that Sky would be sold as a whole. Will Fox/Disney be required to sell their Sky portion to Comcast in some way, and is that what's confusing me and/or adding to the complication?

Fox/Disney is required to make a good faith effort to purchase the 61%. They don't necessarily have to win. It would be advantageous to win both pieces though. Fox increasing its bid demonstrates that effort, so they have fulfilled that obligation.

Anyway, bottom line seems to be this is good for us. And even if it's not as complicated as all that, Comcast simply being distracted by and uncertain about Sky should work in our favor since it could get in the way of Comcast offering a new bid for Fox in the next two weeks.

IIRC, Comcast has to respond to Fox's increased bid for Sky in 4-5 days. They don't have much of a window. The clock is against them.

 

[Big Bang]

"If Comcast does win Sky then it will reconsider whether to bid for Fox in part because of the power of this UK takeover over panel to continue to push the cost of Sky higher if the cost for Fox goes higher."


[YT]AEJSk83SeHw[/YT]


Comcast is now fully focused on Sky. They are expected to respond to Fox's recent Sky bid within days.

Exactly the case. Comcast is going to respond to Fox's bid probably before the end of the week.

It is really starting to look like they are going to back off of Fox.

 

[Detective Conan]

[YT]7t_zqLYN1eE[/YT]

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

Yes. The argument is that the valuation of the 61% of Sky should increased based on the increased valuation of the 39% included in the Fox bidding war. This is where Comcast gets put into a bind.

That's an interesting point. If they really want Sky, their focus should be on nailing down the majority share. They don't have to own 100% - it would be nice, but not necessary.

And once they have the majority, they can always try to buy the remainder from Disney at some later date.

And thanks for your other comments as well. I'm starting to think this is really good news for us and Sky will probably be Comcast's primary focus - and it's seeming less and less likely they'll try to bid again on Fox before July 27.

And then there's the other side - Disney buys the majority share of Sky. In that case, does Comcast even want to be holding the minority share if Disney has the rest?

So the bidding war on Sky seems to work in Disney's favor no matter who gets it.

 

[Zarex]

[YT]7t_zqLYN1eE[/YT]

It appears we have gone from "Comcast will put in another bid for the Fox assets" to "Comcast believes they have time to CONSIDER putting in a higher bid". Progress!

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

It appears we have gone from "Comcast will put in another bid for the Fox assets" to "Comcast believes they have time to CONSIDER putting in a higher bid". Progress!

I think the timing of this is perfect for us. If this had happened after the 27th, Comcast may have focused on Fox and figured they'd worry about Sky later.

Now I think they're forced to focus on Sky with just over 2 weeks until the Fox vote.

 

[Big Bang]

Another part is that I think Comcast is really underestimating how long it will take to get Sky pinned down. The UK can still come back and set a minimum bid amount, which could potentially be even higher than the existing bids. We are now a little over 2 weeks from the shareholder vote. In that time, they have to win the majority stake of Sky and then increase its bid for Fox, which would also potentially up the valuation further for the 61%. I don't see that happening. Not with significant blow back. t:

Disney and Fox are going to game Comcast by keeping them distracted with Sky.

 

[Big Bang]

I'll say this as well, if Iger anticipated this kind of gamesmanship with Comcast and the complications of the deal for the rest of Sky, then well played sir. Well played.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

I'll say this as well, if Iger anticipated this kind of gamesmanship with Comcast and the complications of the deal for the rest of Sky, then well played sir. Well played.

I strongly suspect Disney has been overstating their interest in Sky because they know Comcast wants it.

Disney would probably like to have it, but I think they also see it as a valuable tool in dealing with Comcast from a number of angles.

I suspect Comcast will get the majority of Sky and Disney will get Fox, and then Disney would probably be interested in selling Comcast their Sky share - picking up some cash to cover some of the Fox expense, and maybe get some of the other items of interest that Comcast has (Hulk, Namor, Theme parks).

 

[Dark Raven]

So if Brian focuses on Fox he will lose both Fox and Sky whereas if he focuses on just Sky he could get it but will lose Fox?

 

[Boom]

 

[Zarex]

I'll say this as well, if Iger anticipated this kind of gamesmanship with Comcast and the complications of the deal for the rest of Sky, then well played sir. Well played.

"Bob Iger was able put up a winning bid in a cave! With a box of scraps!"
Brian Roberts, screaming at his lead attorney

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

So if Brian focuses on Fox he will lose both Fox and Sky whereas if he focuses on just Sky he could get it but will lose Fox?

I think that’s reasonably accurate at this point.

Disney has the resources and position to get both. Comcast probably doesn’t and should choose which one they want to go after.

 

[BaronZemo]

I'm just tired of all this. When it's the most liekly scenario all thi corporate bidding ends? End of july?

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

I'm just tired of all this. When it's the most liekly scenario all thi corporate bidding ends? End of july?

Fox Shareholders will vote on the Disney deal on July 27th. If Comcast doesn’t submit a new bid before then (and it’s increasingly looking like they won’t), Fox shareholders will almost certainly approve the deal, and that will, for all practical purposes, end the bidding for Fox.

 

[BaronZemo]

Well, that sounds fine and dandy but i have heard Roberts can be a major party po&per....

 

[Detective Conan]

Fox said Disney had given its consent to the additional debt Fox would take on and said that it would reimburse Fox by around 1 billion pounds if Fox succeeds in buying Sky at that price, but the Disney-Fox transaction falls through.

One hedge fund manager with a stake in Sky welcomed that pledge as a sign that Disney backed Fox in the battle.

Fox said the performance of Sky since 2016 justified its new bid. Analysts said it was not a knock-out, and Fox did not say it was its final offer.

"Fox coming back in for Sky isn't a surprise in itself, but the fact the offer is slightly behind what some had anticipated brings another twist," said George Salmon, equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown.

So Fox’s Sky bid came below what many anticipated? Could this be a sign of something?

 

[Zarex]

So Fox’s Sky bid came below what many anticipated? Could this be a sign of something?

I'm hoping it means Iger is trying to keep Roberts on the hook while not discouraging him from coming in at a higher bid.

 

[Detective Conan]

That’s also what I expected. It seems that Disney/Fox wants to steer Comcast’s attention towards trying to win Sky by making it doable enough for Roberts that he’d likely be compelled to just settle with that asset instead of continuing his pursuit of Fox. Raising their bid for Sky then raising their bid for Fox would be too much for Comcast(unless they can secure some partners).

Comcast could still be in the position to win Fox but in order to get Fox they have no choice but to give up on Sky(that doesn’t seem likely given the reports that Comcast still fully intends to place another bid for Sky very soon). Roberts is tenacious, no question, but he isn’t stupid, and frankly he has a much better chance of winning Sky without the severe headache of the insurmountable debt load he’d have to take if he does win Fox. At this point, even he magically somehow gets partners to help with the financing of another bid I’m not sure Fox shareholders(especially Murdoch) would be keen on the idea of splitting Fox with Comcast’s partners? I suspect Murdoch would resent that idea.

IMO it’s much better for Comcast to just focus on Sky(which is a great asset for them) and leave Fox to Disney. Roberts in a way would still ‘win’ since he’d still be walking away with something unlike his failed bids for both Disney and Time Warner where he got nothing.

 

[Big Bang]

So Fox’s Sky bid came below what many anticipated? Could this be a sign of something?

You notice that too, eh? It's almost like they are trying to invite Comcast to bid some more. t:

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

You notice that too, eh? It's almost like they are trying to invite Comcast to bid some more. t:

More bids at smaller increments eat up more time between now and July 27.

 

[Big Bang]

We just might be in the end game here.

Comcast is now focused on buying U.K.-pay TV provider Sky before it makes a decision on the remainder of Fox's for-sale assets.

Instead of rebidding for all of the Fox assets, Comcast is now focused on increasing its bid for Sky, according to a person familiar with the matter.

What's unclear is if Disney is willing to cede Sky. Iger has consistently emphasized how much Disney loves Sky's platform and user interface. To "talk back" to Comcast, Disney would have to get the message out that it wouldn't bid again on Sky, perhaps through a public statement. That may give Comcast the security it needs to back away on the rest of Fox's assets.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/brian-roberts-talking-bob-iger-193200374.html

 

[WeaponXCII]

We just might be in the end game here.







https://finance.yahoo.com/news/brian-roberts-talking-bob-iger-193200374.html

God I hope so- I just want it to be over....

 

[ADollarADay]

https://www.cmcsa.com/static-files/255ceb25-10f4-45a3-a4cd-6d4e02fb77dd

Comcast upped its bid for Sky to £14.75 per share.

 

[Tymminator]

Guys, 2018 will go down as a heck of a year for Marvel Studios fans for a multitude of reasons.