The Rebooted "Keep Hope Alive" (that the rights can revert back to Marvel) Thread - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Part 23

[Marvel united]

Something that's been bugging me the last few days is the potential blue wave coming up this November. Now, we know the Democrats opposed the Disney Fox deal, I'm a bit worried yhat they'll try to jeopardize the deal if they win back the House or the Senate. Is it possible? Or does the DOJ already approving the deal make it not possible for them to ruin the deal?

 

[Detective Conan]

Something that's been bugging me the last few days is the potential blue wave coming up this November. Now, we know the Democrats opposed the Disney Fox deal, I'm a bit worried yhat they'll try to jeopardize the deal if they win back the House or the Senate. Is it possible? Or does the DOJ already approving the deal make it not possible for them to ruin the deal?

I PMed Big Bang about this before and he told me that no matter the outcome it won’t really impact the deal.

 

[Detective Conan]

Disney’s Q3 earning call is today. We might get some new info on when the deal closes or at least get an update on how the international regulatory process is going. Either me or someone else will be post some pertinent information as it relates to the deal.

Also this could be a chance for someone to ask Iger about the James Gunn situation and whether Disney is still unwilling to rehire him or not. I think that Variety article— while not exactly definitive pretty much paints a pretty accurate picture on what Disney’s stance on that is. Even with all the peititions and the cast calling for Gunn’s reinstatement I really don’t see Disney budging on their decision I’m afraid.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

Something that's been bugging me the last few days is the potential blue wave coming up this November. Now, we know the Democrats opposed the Disney Fox deal, I'm a bit worried yhat they'll try to jeopardize the deal if they win back the House or the Senate. Is it possible? Or does the DOJ already approving the deal make it not possible for them to ruin the deal?

Nah, first of all, despite the idea that politics are everywhere, they really don't impact something like this to any large degree.

And even if a lot of Dems are elected, the DOJ is part of the executive branch and the executive branch won't change.

Maybe Dems will say: "We don't like these mega-mergers." and pass laws that limit them in the future, but this deal would have happened at a time it was perfectly legal.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

Disney’s Q3 earning call is today. We might get some new info on when the deal closes or at least get an update on how the international regulatory process is going. Either me or someone else will be post some pertinent information as it relates to the deal.

Also this could be a chance for someone to ask Iger about the James Gunn situation and whether Disney is still unwilling to rehire him or not. I think that Variety article— while not exactly definitive pretty much paints a pretty accurate picture on what Disney’s stance on that is. Even with all the peititions and the cast calling for Gunn’s reinstatement I really don’t see Disney budging on their decision I’m afraid.

I think this will be THE biggest questions on shareholders minds, so they almost have to address it in some form.

We may care about this because of Marvel films, but for shareholders, this is real money and the longer it takes the longer it will take for them to start reaping the rewards, so Disney will be pushing to close things as quickly as possible, and they'll likely provide more information than we've seen so far regarding when that might actually happen and what barriers they still need to overcome.

 

[Crimz]

Around what time is the call?

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

Around what time is the call?

4:30

https://www.nasdaq.com/article/the-...s-conference-call-at-430-pm-et-20180807-00223

 

[Marvel united]

I PMed Big Bang about this before and he told me that no matter the outcome it won’t really impact the deal.

Nah, first of all, despite the idea that politics are everywhere, they really don't impact something like this to any large degree.

And even if a lot of Dems are elected, the DOJ is part of the executive branch and the executive branch won't change.

Maybe Dems will say: "We don't like these mega-mergers." and pass laws that limit them in the future, but this deal would have happened at a time it was perfectly legal.

That's reassuring. Cause I remember a couple of Dems attacking the deal back in December

Anyway, I think we missed this, regarding Sky
https://deadline.com/2018/08/the-ba...s-until-thursday-to-lodge-new-bid-1202440617/

 

[Dark Raven]

That's reassuring. Cause I remember a couple of Dems attacking the deal back in December

Anyway, I think we missed this, regarding Sky
https://deadline.com/2018/08/the-ba...s-until-thursday-to-lodge-new-bid-1202440617/

It says that Fox have until Thursday to launch a new bid.

By this time when it was Comcast whose bid we were waiting for, we had already decided that if they were going to make a new bid, they would've done so by now. In fact, it was even more than just a couple of days away from the deadline.

So does that mean that if Fox don't make a new bid, and Disney don't step in, then it's probably Comcast's? And that they are allowing Comcast to have it?

I thought Disney believed that Sky was a crown jewel. They seem to be waiting until the very last minute if they do think that.

 

[Detective Conan]

https://deadline.com/2018/08/the-ba...s-until-thursday-to-lodge-new-bid-1202440617/

Fox Publishes Formal Takeover Offer for Sky, Says Has Until Sept. 22 to Boost Bid


As long as the bidding war for Sky doesn’t impact the Fox/Disney deal in anyway then I personally couldn’t care less about Disney or Fox’s efforts to obtain Sky.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

It says that Fox have until Thursday to launch a new bid.

By this time when it was Comcast whose bid we were waiting for, we had already decided that if they were going to make a new bid, they would've done so by now. In fact, it was even more than just a couple of days away from the deadline.

So does that mean that if Fox don't make a new bid, and Disney don't step in, then it's probably Comcast's? And that they are allowing Comcast to have it?

I thought Disney believed that Sky was a crown jewel. They seem to be waiting until the very last minute if they do think that.

I think this situation is a little different, because in the previous deal, Disney was in the process of buying Fox and Comcast came in as an interloper. In that case, Comcast could have theoretically waited until the last minute, but because things were progressing without them, a last minute bid would not have been considered as seriously as a bid that had been made a month before the meeting.

In this case, Fox/Disney can just wait out the deadline and not harm their position by doing so.

But I kind of suspect Disney is done and willing to let Comcast have it and then maybe talk about selling their share.

 

[WeaponXCII]

Fox Publishes Formal Takeover Offer for Sky, Says Has Until Sept. 22 to Boost Bid


As long as the bidding war for Sky doesn’t impact the Fox/Disney deal in anyway then I personally couldn’t care less about Disney or Fox’s efforts to obtain Sky.

Same. Just waiting for 4:30 PM ET to happen so that we might hear something from that earnings call. We might not hear anything at all, though. After that I'm suspecting that the next several months are going to feel really, really long.

 

[ADollarADay]

Here’s another thing to keep in mind regarding the rights is that Marvel will have a whole bunch of events they could do. Apocalypse should be a Thanos like level of event. Doom. Galactus. Anhilation. AvX. Sentinels. If they play their cards right and reintroduce inhumans as the slave owning *******s they are, then we could have an XvI event. And so on. Lots of possibilities. They’ll probably be building up to those in parallel. They already kinda did with 2 major events (CW and IW). If they get the full Spidey and Hulk ones they can add a couple others. Also, I read somewhere that Namor might go into a Hulk like situation post acquisition (i.e. able to use him in ensemble movies). He was probably complicated due to the fact that he’s also a mutant and Fox have some claims. Honestly, it wouldn’t be surprising that we had something where NBCU had rights of first refusal where Fox had some production claims because he’s a mutant (and can’t be changed like SW/QS) and Marvel had some other rights hence why he’s in limbo. There’s also some that say that the creator’s estate have some claims, but either that’s not true or that’s not really the stopper here.

Changing subjects, Disney stock has shot up. Depending on what they say in a couple of hours it’ll keep going up. IIRC that will mean that FOX/FOXA shareholders will have to take half cash half stock, but I’d have to verify. No one in their right mind will take 100% cash even if we get less DIS shares now that it has broken the 114.5 barrier.

Also new Disney movie releases will leave Netflix in the US 18 months after becoming available on the platform, so whenever IW releases on Netflix just add 18 months to it and that’s when it’ll be removed from the platform.

https://www.whats-on-netflix.com/leaving-soon/disney-movies-leaving-netflix/

Older movies (like the current available Bolt) and other countries are okay for now. Older movies are negotiated on a case by case basis and I’m sure Disney will have them all pulled out before they launch Disenyflix by the end of 2019. Other countries will be okay for a tad longer, but once Disney starts expanding WW I wouldn’t be surprised if all content is pulled at once. They’ll plan better and will have any new contracts set up accordingly.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

Here’s another thing to keep in mind regarding the rights is that Marvel will have a whole bunch of events they could do. Apocalypse should be a Thanos like level of event. Doom. Galactus. Anhilation. AvX. Sentinels. If they play their cards right and reintroduce inhumans as the slave owning *******s they are, then we could have an XvI event. And so on. Lots of possibilities. They’ll probably be building up to those in parallel. They already kinda did with 2 major events (CW and IW). If they get the full Spidey and Hulk ones they can add a couple others.

In hindsight, Marvel really was starting to run out of options at least in terms of comic-based major events, and now they have more than they can deal with. I kind of suspect that the whole getting away from phases was at least partly because Feige knew he couldn't top IW with what he had to work with, and now he might be able to build toward another 10 year mega-event.

Also, I read somewhere that Namor might go into a Hulk like situation post acquisition (i.e. able to use him in ensemble movies). He was probably complicated due to the fact that he’s also a mutant and Fox have some claims.

This is an interesting point. I remember long ago reading speculation that the mutant issue was part of the problem with Namor, but I hadn't thought about it in light of the acquisition. Yeah, if that was something that made him more complicated than Hulk, this should reduce that complication.t:

 

[Shinobi Shaw]

A few mutant characters could be extinction-level, MCU Big Bads like Thanos if they write for them properly. Magneto and his constant attacks against humanity could put him on the Avengers radar, then that could lead to him and Xavier somehow becoming Onslaught. Same with Apocalypse, he awakens from his slumber and could seek out retribution against the whole MCU and not just the X-Men.

They switch up the story a little bit, but Jean Grey’s powers are becoming too much, the Nova Corps and Guardians notice the Phoenix Force is coming to bond with her, the Avengers don’t like it, that could bring on AvX.

So many possibilities.

 

[Marvel united]

An Ultimatum adaptation where Magneto floods New York City killing thousands, could be a huge film

 

[Gamma Goliath]

I'd love if marvel skipped the phoenix deal and death of Jean. Just let her character exist. You can still give her the phoenix force but that whole saga is a bit played out.

 

[Detective Conan]

An Ultimatum adaptation where Magneto floods New York City killing thousands, could be a huge film

Ultimatum was terrible so I would hope the MCU avoids anything from that comic like a plague.

But I suppose the MCU could pull off the story that Ultimatum was trying to tell better than the comic did much like how they did the story of Civil War better than the comic.

 

[Tymminator]

Ultimatum was terrible so I would hope the MCU avoids anything from that comic like a plague.

But I suppose the MCU could pull off the story that Ultimatum was trying to tell better than the comic did much like how they did the story of Civil War better than the comic.

Ultimatum and Loeb specifically ruined the Ultimates. Millar & Hitch brought in a different and refreshing take that was interesting and Loeb came in, changed characters personalities, dumbed them down and simplified them, then inserted them in insipid stories, only to promply kill most of them in Ultimatum like he’s was doing something “new and kewl”.

Bah.

 

[Darkprime]

The earnings call is over someone on reddit compiled a nice list of all the topics.

Iger immediately referenced the James Gunn issue (but not by name), and passed it off to another person on the call Christine which will address it later in the call

Followed up by going into the Fox acquisition

Currently discussing the D2C strategy as to how Disney will be entering the digital streaming market with Fox's infrastructure

20th Century and Searchlight will be 'supported' and 'not interfered' with (EDIT: my interpretation of what Iger said, needs confirmation). Essentially, Disney will be pumping money into them to further expand TV and film for their most successful franchises (good news for Deadpool fans, Disney is going to let them be them).

Confirmed live-action Star Wars content coming

More Marvel TV content coming

ESPN / sports content will of course be part of the Disney live-streaming service, I kind of tuned out in that part. I don't know sportsball.

They're going into earnings. Boring. Numbers are up, everything's awesome.

An unnamed animated project is in the pipeline (unspecified association with any franchise), along with something else. I missed it. Apparently $100M has been earmarked for the two projects.

Luke Cage wrecked Defenders 'revenue'...lol Christine throwing shade

Earnings / Spending / section over, now taking Q&A from shareholders

Question 1: Regarding Netflix's model; apps regarding live-streaming; will there be more than one app or a single Disney streaming app?

Answer 1: Disney app end of calendar 2019, walk before run in terms of volume of content, have to build it out first....going with a low-volume / high-value catalog, lower price point than Netflix. ESPN as a separate app. Bring to market...sports-play (ESPN), Disney-play (family, Star Wars, Marvel, etc), Hulu (as it exists)...if consumer wants all 3, there can be a package available.

Question 2: Mish mash of a question

Answer 2: Star Wars streaming is top priority for upcoming streaming.

Question 3: Fox acquisition question...programming and acquisition transition timeline question....what Disney park attractions are coming?

Answer 3: Bunch of financial answers, who cares...Toy Story Land, Star Wars Land opening sometime 2019.

Question 4: ESPN streaming question, sorry this is where my eyes glaze over. Affiliates question, not important.

Answer 4: General acknowledgement by Iger is that streaming is here to stay based on viewer habits, so this plays a big part in upcoming programming across the board.

Question 5: what's the pace of investment into streaming?

Answer 5: no need to rush, they know they own what people want, so when it launches, people will come to it. also will price accordingly to seed that interest. Not in the High-Volume Game, they're in the High-Quality Game and will take their time to get it right on launch.

Question 6: BIG ONE - When the streaming service launches, will existing content outside of it (e.g. Netflix Marvel shows) be removed from Netflix and only on Disney streaming, or stay on Netflix?

Answer 6: Kind of vague so far, but it sounds like they'll wait for the licensing rights to end before making a decision. Ensured that people will know clearly ahead of time where everything will live. (To me, this sounds like they're going to be open for negotiating the licensing of that content...how badly does Netflix want to keep Daredevil, Luke Cage, The Clone Wars, etc.?)

Question 7: Stephen doesn't feel so good. Bad connection.

Question 8: irrelevant financial question

Last question: Some ESPN question, not relevant. Sky content question, any hint of Disney will swallow that up or let Comcast pick up their crumbs.

Last answer: No comment.

Call concluded. No comments on the James Gunn issue, despite alluding to them in the first sentence in the call.

Biggest Takeaways:

No specific comments on James Gunn, but they alluded to it in the first sentence of the call. Clearly still a big issue for Disney internally.
Some kind of new original Marvel content will be announced for the streaming service
Disney will be pumping money into Fox, etc. but it sounds like there will be little interference from the Mouse (anyone up for a $200M Deadpool movie?)
Star Wars is their #1 priority for building out original content on the streaming service, everything else comes after that
Streaming service will be rolled out in a patient manner; low-volume initially but high-quality, and a price point accordingly (less than Netflix).
Licensing for Disney content that already exists outside of the Disney service (Marvel Netflix Originals, Star Wars on Netflix): When the agreements per property runs its course it sounds like Disney will be open to negotiating on whether that content stays where it is, or gets migrated to Disney streaming app - BUT no solid answer on what that really entails (reading between the lines, Disney will hold those properties ransom and if Netflix doesn't pay up they lose them, which makes business sense)
The Disney streaming model will exist in 3 parts: Sports (ESPN), Disney (Animated, Star Wars, MCU, "family"), and Hulu (everything on Hulu), with a potential option to package them all together for a single service.

 

[Bach]

Question 6: BIG ONE - When the streaming service launches, will existing content outside of it (e.g. Netflix Marvel shows) be removed from Netflix and only on Disney streaming, or stay on Netflix?

Answer 6: Kind of vague so far, but it sounds like they'll wait for the licensing rights to end before making a decision. Ensured that people will know clearly ahead of time where everything will live. (To me, this sounds like they're going to be open for negotiating the licensing of that content...how badly does Netflix want to keep Daredevil, Luke Cage, The Clone Wars, etc.?)

This is very interesting but opens a lot of questions. Could it mean that Disney is open to include R-rated content in their streaming service? Maybe, though I'm not holding my breath.

 

[Detective Conan]

Disney CEO Teases Plans For X-Men, Fantastic Four, Deadpool & More

Hmm, interesting that Iger mentioned Fantastic Four. Given how tarnished the brand after FFINO I would suspect that Iger would just mention X-Men but I think Iger sees potential in the First Family. Of course he could just mentioning FF purely because they are the part of the Marvel rights Fox owns but still the fact that he would mention that Disney does plan to use the FF is interesting nonetheless.

Frankly there’s nothing really revealing that’s been said in this earnings call.

 

[Detective Conan]

The way this info is being reported around some places makes it seem like Disney will just let Fox continue on as they’ve always have before the merger with Fox continuing to be left alone to make X-Men and Fantastic Four films without Marvel Studios involvement.

That will not be actually be the case.

Though they will mostly leave stuff like Fox Searchlight and Fox television will likely be fine but the Marvel rights are definitely going back to Marvel Studios after the deal closes.

 

[Marvel united]

The way it’s being said in that quote makes it seem like Disney will just let Fox continue on as they’ve always have before the merger with Fox being left alone to make X-Men and Fantastic Four films without Marvel Studios involvement.

That will not be actually be the case.

I'm blocked from that account. What is it saying

 

[Darkprime]

I'm blocked from that account. What is it saying

In case anyone needed anymore explicit confirmation, it was made clear during a Q&A with Bob Iger earlier today that X-Men & F4 will be handed to Kevin Feige.
“The films will move under Kevin Feige.”
12/14/2017 2:20 PM PT
(Credit @ManaByte)