The Rebooted "Keep Hope Alive" (that the rights can revert back to Marvel) Thread - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Part 24

[Darkprime]

CADE sent letters to 8 companies asking among other things if they are interested in buying all or part of the sports assets.

The letters are posted on the CADE site and it could take a bit of time for response.

It sounds like it is not convinced of behaviorial remedies that DIS wont abuse the market power post merger so it’s leaning toward strucutural ie asset sale. Read: DIS didn’t offer enough money to the commissioners.

Got a link to the letters? Tried looking on the CADE site but cant find anything.

 

[Endeavor]

Read: DIS didn’t offer enough money to the commissioners.

Yup.
LOL

 

[Darkprime]

So what does Disney do at this point? It seems like CADE is being unnecessarily difficult. Showing concern over a bunch of sports channels. lol

 

[Zyraquis]

Got a link to the letters? Tried looking on the CADE site but cant find anything.

Yeah didn’t post because the link is somehow not private:

https://sei.cade.gov.br/sei/modulos...BcSx6VT8s_7a39CZOXmQ-t2wypOQEzO5-IvOP8aS3cDfx

Here is the direct link to the letter to Sony all letters are more or less similar

https://sei.cade.gov.br/sei/modulos...2ZRuIw67bLB-YV3jeLw6laOBFEl94gueJmz4tMmHd4Wmb

 

[Darkprime]

Could this end with Disney simply shutting down Fox sports in Brazil after a certain amount of time post merger as a last resort?

 

[Zyraquis]

It is fine if CADE grants a conditional ok before March for DIS to sell post deal. It could be tricky if no one is interested in buying. Though since sports is big in Brazil there should be a buyer it’s a matter of the price.

 

[Endeavor]

So what does Disney do at this point? It seems like CADE is being unnecessarily difficult. Showing concern over a bunch of sports channels. lol

Good question.

Either they give in and pay them what they want, thus perpetuating their corrupt system and ensuring they'll be bribed again in the future.
Or...
They wait it out and risk missing the deadline they had given their investors.

I wouldn't like to be in their place.

 

[Zyraquis]

Shutting down is another matter. If the outcome is a flat out rejection then one condition is not satisfied and the deal will be officially off. They have to then shut down Brazil if they want and come back with a deal -again- bottom line is they don’t want a rejection. They could appeal but it’s a big headache.

 

[Darkprime]

What Disney should have done is sold off ESPN as soon as they knew they would be acquiring the RSN's. If the DOJ had issue with Disney owning ESPN and the RSNS then they should have anticipated other issues internationally as well (especially Brazil) where they take sports very seriously. Dropping ESPN would have avoided this whole mess. RSN's are far more valuable than ESPN anyway. Im pretty sure this will end with Disney giving CADE more money.

 

[Detective Conan]

Brazil continues to be a major thorn on the side, I see.

 

[Zyraquis]

They probably had done internal analysis and considered antitrust risks too low to bother sale before the merger.

It is not uncommon for a big merger deal to include an asset sale when it’s announced where the price and buyer have already been identified and agreed, and proceeds will go as dividends to sweeten the deal if the parties think they won’t get an okay in certain areas.

 

[Marvel united]

Shutting down is another matter. If the outcome is a flat out rejection then one condition is not satisfied and the deal will be officially off. They have to then shut down Brazil if they want and come back with a deal -again- bottom line is they don’t want a rejection. They could appeal but it’s a big headache.

Getting approval in Brazil may not be a "condition" of the original agreement between Disney and Fox. They might be able to pull altogether if the contract doesn't state that Brazil Is mandated approval like the US, EU and China were. Those 3 were the most important

 

[Zyraquis]

I am confident that it is. It can’t cherry pick which markets to be a condition as long as it has some operations there.

 

[Darkprime]

It will be pretty sad if they rejected it. And this whole thing becomes a distant memory. Hey remember the time we almost got x-men and f4 in the mcu? yea that was fun.At the end of the day Im confident Iger and Co will get it done. They didn't come all this way to have it fail because one country is being difficult.

 

[Detective Conan]

I am confident that it is. It can’t cherry pick which markets to be a condition as long as it has some operations there.

What do you think will happen with the deal now? Do you think there's an even higher probability that Brazil will block the deal than ever before?

 

[Zyraquis]

It still seems to me a conditional approval is the most likely outcome though. It’s now waiting for a buyer to come forward DIS I think will sell on the cheap when push comes to shove.

There is still Chile approval not sure what’s going on there.

 

[Darkprime]

it seems odd CADE is going above Disney and trying to find a buyer on their own. Like they dont trust Disney to follow through with the agreed conditions.

 

[PsylockeBlackWidow]

It still seems to me a conditional approval is the most likely outcome though. It’s now waiting for a buyer to come forward DIS I think will sell on the cheap when push comes to shove.

There is still Chile approval not sure what’s going on there.

Where did you hear about Chile? also any other places or thats it?

 

[PsylockeBlackWidow]

Here the letter Cade sent to Sony and others, in fact, they asked which remedies they prefer, which is either behavioral or structural.

Subject: Request for information on Concentration Act n ° 08700.004494 / 2018-53



The Concentration Act No. 08700.004494 / 2018-53, which deals with the acquisition of control of Twenty-First Century Fox, Inc. by The Walt Disney Company ( "Cade"), is being considered by the Administrative Council of the Administrative Council for Economic Defense ("Cade"). Brazil) Ltda.

We are aware that your company operates in markets that may be affected by the transaction. Thus, based on the provisions of arts. 13 of Law 12,529 / 2011, you are requested to clarify the details specified below.

In accordance with the terms of Opinion No. 11/2018 / CGAA4 / SGA1 / SG (SEI No. 0554780), the Superintendence-General (SG) of the Administrative Council for Economic Defense identified competitive problems in the above Operation, concluding that :

"Regarding the programming market for basic sports channels for pay-TV, although a transformation scenario is envisaged, the Transaction will result in a significant increase in the concentration of the market with a high probability of exercising market power by TWDC; and also with the potential to reduce the quality and diversity of available sports content and increase costs especially for small pay-TV operators. In other words, the operation entails not insignificant risks of diminishing consumer welfare. "

Given this context and considering the technical expertise of its company in affected markets potentially affected by the operation, the following information is requested to be provided until February 7, 2019, Thursday :

1. Indicate which remedies would be sufficient, in the opinion of your company, to eliminate the competitive concerns identified in Technical Note n. 11/2018 / CGAA4 / SGA1 / SG of the CADE Superintendence-General, which is attached hereto.

1. In the case of the need for structural remedies, indicate whether the sale of assets related to the sports channel market on pay-TV would be sufficient to eliminate the identified competition concerns.

1. If yes to the previous question, indicate if your company would be a potential buyer of part of these assets, as well as the main factors and conditions for such eventual decision. If possible, indicate what these assets would be.

1. Inform any additional information deemed appropriate for the analysis of the Concentration Act in question.

 

[Marvel united]

It will be pretty sad if they rejected it. And this whole thing becomes a distant memory. Hey remember the time we almost got x-men and f4 in the mcu? yea that was fun.At the end of the day Im confident Iger and Co will get it done. They didn't come all this way to have it fail because one country is being difficult.

There's no way this is going to happen. They are too far and too close to the deal getting finalized for Disney to let Brazil sabotage the whole thing. They'll find a way to get it done. Iger has made it clear that the Fox properties are very important to Disney's Future

 

[Zyraquis]

DIS has been rather adamant on not selling believing that it can argue for either unconditional or behaviorial remedies. It might start looking now too given CADE response so far. It could check any friendly company like Sony perhaps?

I wouldn’t be too worry though at this point no signal even remote one to suggest the merger is in jeopardy. Just a bump on the road.

 

[Marvel united]

Wasn't Mexico supposed to review the deal today?

 

[Darkprime]

Wasn't Mexico supposed to review the deal today?

They were, we know it was on the agenda at least.

 

[Zyraquis]

Yes some outcome from that meeting has been coming through like retail petrol market. Still waiting if any words on Disney. Sometimes they don’t publish any statement till later.

 

[PsylockeBlackWidow]

I known Disney will keep using behavioral remedies but if all else fails, then selling Fox Sports might be the last resort because I do not think they want to go to court to appeal or withdraw from the country.