My guess is Tom Rothman is going to play hardball, figuring that they have a decent landing spot for Spidey if Marvel Studios doesn't extend the deal. Tom Holland appearances, cameos and references to other MCU characters and a % of the MCU grosses for films in which Spidey appears will all be Sony demands. Iger, Horn and Feige will remind Mr. Rothman that they have thousands of popular characters coming home in a few months and they can either extend the deal under the existing terms or shake hands and call it a day.
One potential problem with the Venomverse is Mr. Hardy's involvement. His casting was considered a huge "get" for the Rothman/Pascal/Arad dream team when he signed, and it's doubtful he signed a six movie MCU-style deal. He certainly was under no pressure to do so. After the dreadful reviews for this one, will Hardy be willing to come back for the sequel? Even if the weekend holds for this one, the franchise is still quite vulnerable due to the poor reviews and the possibility of having to recast the lead.