The Rebooted "Keep Hope Alive" (that the rights can revert back to Marvel) Thread - Part 4

[Dasher10]

Yeah exactly... I wouldnever do that with you because I don't care anyting about you though you clearly contradict yourself more than most. You brought something up that had nothing to do with the original response...

Again YOU make no sense and who has "debunked" anything using anything other than their opinions? I backed up my claim with research based on statistical analysis. There is an obvious diffrence and btw Winter Soldier and Captain America TFA are both in the same range as Apocalypse on IMDB so (7.8 and 6.8 respectively).

Actually TFA is low overall which goes to show that what fanboys love isn't what the gen audience always does too.

Atm Apocalypse is doing fine. It could go down and I've already conceded to that.

I predict that it's like Man of Steel where critics hate it but audiences love it. I haven't seen it yet but it probably won't be as bad as BvS.

 

[SAUspartan]

A lot of you are off on Apocalypse budget. It was only 178 million. Not 234 million like a lot have thrown around.

 

[First Avenger]

A lot of you are off on Apocalypse budget. It was only 178 million. Not 234 million like a lot have thrown around.

I'm skeptical but that would explain the terrible VFX.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

A lot of you are off on Apocalypse budget. It was only 178 million. Not 234 million like a lot have thrown around.

I would never doubt anyone saying Fox cuts corners.

Unfortunately the result will likely just be more cheap, half-assed Fox films.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

I predict that it's like Man of Steel where critics hate it but audiences love it. I haven't seen it yet but it probably won't be as bad as BvS.

"Love" is a little strong, don't you think? I really liked moments in BVS, but overall there were too many glaring problems for me to really enjoy it.

But, yeah, as with Adam Sandler films, the actual moviegoers did seem to enjoy it more than the critics.

 

[Zarex]

A lot of you are off on Apocalypse budget. It was only 178 million. Not 234 million like a lot have thrown around.

I am not certain we can rely on either number. The $234M was from Wikipedia and the $178M may be the studio's response to the negative reviews and what's looking like a soft box office for the film. At the higher number this one could be a flop, but at $56M less there's a much better chance the film at least breaks even.

A $178M budget puts the break even point at closer to $600M than $700M. We'll see if it can get there.

 

[The_Manhunter]

Has there been any news? I only check this topic every once in a while lol

 

[wobbly]

Has there been any news? I only check this topic every once in a while lol

Only Hackberg talking about 'wanting' to do a FFINO sequel. No, that isn't a joke. The idiot did talk about it.

Other than that nothing new, so the waiting game goes on.

 

[Quasar]

Just saw that Syfy is doing a "Live From Comic Con" this year, so we should be able to get any FF related news faster than ever before!

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

Just saw that Syfy is doing a "Live From Comic Con" this year, so we should be able to get any FF related news faster than ever before!

Cool! With or without FF news.

 

[KevanG]

Honestly I think they'll keep ahold of the FF rights just because they can. They'll wait a few years, say "We've done it right this time! Promise!" then come out with something meh at best since now all we can compare it to is the MCU and how they integrated it all.

 

[Docker2.0]

Not if the Xmen continue to lose money. I still say XM:A won't make over $600M WW.

 

[Web-Head]

John Cena for Ben Grimm!

 

[KevanG]

I'd be behind that if only to see The Thing do wrestling moves. It;'s not liek he wasn't a Super powered wrestler in the comics for a while.

Not if the Xmen continue to lose money. I still say XM:A won't make over $600M WW.

It wasn't bad as X3 and it made something like $460M before it finished. X:A should do fairly well.

 

[Zarex]

Honestly I think they'll keep ahold of the FF rights just because they can. They'll wait a few years, say "We've done it right this time! Promise!" then come out with something meh at best since now all we can compare it to is the MCU and how they integrated it all.

If there is a way for FOX to put another FF film into production without having to eat at least another $50M loss, I would love to hear it. There may be some folks, like Kinberg, that want another go at this three time loser of a franchise. But the numbers just dont add up.

 

[KevanG]

I'm not saying they'll make something that's even decent, they've had three shots at it now and all sucked, but I'm sure they want to just reboot and forget they happened so they can mess it up again.

 

[marieylee]

A lot of you are off on Apocalypse budget. It was only 178 million. Not 234 million like a lot have thrown around.

IF CW's budget is 250M with the cast salaries (RDJ 40M, SJ 10M minimum, Evans 5M minimum, etc) and shooting in Atlanta, I could maybe believe in the 178M budget (and shooting in Canada). I'm more surprised in BvS budget (250M reported, but supposedly closer to 300M). Alice's budget is also "only" 170M.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

Honestly I think they'll keep ahold of the FF rights just because they can. They'll wait a few years, say "We've done it right this time! Promise!" then come out with something meh at best since now all we can compare it to is the MCU and how they integrated it all.

This seems to be what a lot of people believe, but I just don't see it.

We have to keep in mind that Fox isn't one person with one goal and one mind. They're a collection of different managers. Some of those managers understand the situation and the fans well enough to understand that fans won't give them another chance so it's a losing proposition.

Other managers won't understand the details. They'll simply look at the numbers and see:

First Film: $331 million
Second Film: $289 million
Third Film: $168 million

Without knowing anything about it, you'd have to be a fool to look at those numbers and decide you're going to be the one to stick your neck out and argue for greenlighting a fourth film.

We also have to keep in mind that many of the managers who will be there in 2020 (when this decision will have to be made to avoid letting the rights slide away) were some of the same people who were there three years ago. Some of those people argued that they should make the film - and they were proven woefully wrong. Others didn't want to make it - and they were right.

So at this point, the ones who wanted to make the last one won't make that mistake again and the ones who didn't want to make it last time have no reason to change their mind this time.

I just can't imagine a process within Fox management that gets another film green-lit.

 

[BeserkerHilf]

Yea, but this property is like a plot of land owned by a wannabe real estate tycoon in an up-and-coming part of town. Sure, there's a run-down house waiting needing a total teardown, but the neighborhood is about to peak and the tycoon is waiting for the right person to sign over an inflated paycheck.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

Yea, but this property is like a plot of land owned by a wannabe real estate tycoon in an up-and-coming part of town. Sure, there's a run-down house waiting needing a total teardown, but the neighborhood is about to peak and the tycoon is waiting for the right person to sign over an inflated paycheck.

I'm not sure that I see the up-and-coming town. Batman Vs. Superman spent a boatload of money and featured the best-known, best-loved comic book characters in the world with an all-star cast and was a disappointment.

X-Men Apocalypse is looking like a disappointment. Fant4stic was a huge disappointment. The comic-book film world is becoming crowded, more risky and more competitive with constantly rising budgets. Meanwhile Fox has all the characters they need or can handle with the X-Men if they do it right and develop individual characters better (like they did with Deadpool).

Unless you're Marvel/Disney, superhero movies are far from a sure-thing, and the FF is about as far from a sure thing as anything could ever get.

 

[Zarex]

I've posted versions of this a few times, but here is what I see as a best case scenario from FOX's perspective:

BO: $350M
The maximum FOX could expect to make on another FF film is to double up the FFINO gross. A $350M WW gross would top the highest the franchise has ever reached, way back in 2005. Given the horrific audience response to FFINO, this is the absolute best case scenario.

Net BO: $175M
FOX retains approximately 50% of the BO take, not including Marvel's cut of somewhere between 3 and 5% of the gross. To make it easy, let's say the Murdoch's take half.

Budget: $150M
FFINO looked ghastly on a $120M budget, so there's absolutely no way they can go lower and expect to get a different result. To revitalize the franchise they will need at least one BO star and not keep the team de-powered for over half the film. That's going to cost money, and $150M is about as low as they can go.

Marketing: $75M
Forget about Denny's or other promotional partners signing on to this one. FOX is going to have to spread the word about how this version of the FF is different than its predecessors. Studios spend 9 figures on most major releases. Let's say FOX can get away with $75M.

Net Loss: ($50M)

In the best case scenario I have presented, FOX eats a $50M loss. And if things don't turn out quite as well, it could surpass FFINO levels.

I'm certain some folks at FOX want to take a fourth swing at the bat. But not all of their employees are idiots. The numbers simply don't work.

 

[Orba]

Yeah, the only way Fox can make another FF film is if they are willing to fully commit to the franchise budget wise while knowing that they can't expect to see any profit until at least the second film.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

BO: $350M
The maximum FOX could expect to make on another FF film is to double up the FFINO gross. A $350M WW gross would top the highest the franchise has ever reached, way back in 2005. Given the horrific audience response to FFINO, this is the absolute best case scenario.

And this is where, if you were the plucky Fox management up-and-comer trying to make a name for yourself and pushing to make another film and I was the grizzled old veteran, I would destroy you in the meeting:

"$350 million?!?! Whose a$$ did you pull that number out of?!?! What reason do we have to think this would make more than any of the previous efforts and more than double the last effort?!?! That's crazy to even suggest a number like that."

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

And if things don't turn out quite as well, it could surpass FFINO levels.

Wouldn't this hypothetical future film be in a far worse position than Fant4stic ever was?

Before we started hearing all the crap, I was willing to give Fox a chance. They won't get that from me this time. I am going to hate this film from the moment Fox announces it.

For the previous film, if things had looked better during production, I would have actually been excited and looking forward to it. This time around, I don't care how good it looks. Fox has screwed me too many times and I'm not giving them a chance to do it again.

If it happens, count on me (and I suspect MANY people like me) to be posting my hate in the comments section of every news story that comes out from initial announcement until it's making its network television debut.

Don't expect me to be any more rational or reasonable in thought or action than you would expect an abused spouse to be during an ugly divorce.

 

[Zarex]

Wouldn't this hypothetical future film be in a far worse position than Fant4stic ever was?

Before we started hearing all the crap, I was willing to give Fox a chance. They won't get that from me this time. I am going to hate this film from the moment Fox announces it.

For the previous film, if things had looked better during production, I would have actually been excited and looking forward to it. This time around, I don't care how good it looks. Fox has screwed me too many times and I'm not giving them a chance to do it again.

If it happens, count on me (and I suspect MANY people like me) to be posting my hate in the comments section of every news story that comes out from initial announcement until it's making its network television debut.

Don't expect me to be any more rational or reasonable in thought or action than you would expect an abused spouse to be during an ugly divorce.

I agree with all of this, and what I presented was my "FOX used incriminating photos to sign Leonardo DiCaprio, Jennifer Lawrence, Dwayne Johnson and Liam Hemsworth for scale" scenario. Folks who are suggesting that the franchise can be revived at FOX are ignoring the numbers, and even in my wildly optimistic best case scenario, the thing still bleeds tens of millions of dollars. The FF at FOX is DUN.