The Rebooted "Keep Hope Alive" (that the rights can revert back to Marvel) Thread - Part 4

[ernesth100]

I realize Holland and Marisa can play they're roles for the next 20-30 years because Aunt May usually looks old and grey haired and we'll get to see Peter...y'know, grow up and mature.

But that's besides the topic, I'mhoping this F4 thing happens. I think it will. Especially after the whole Apocolypse being a lukewarm reception at best.

 

[Copper Crow]

I'm honestly waiting for Marvel to announce their phase 4 roster with the title;
"PHASE" with a circled number 4 (the Fantastic Four symbol).

Fantastic Four
Inhumans
Namor

These 3 titles alone offer up so much potential.
-The relationship between Namor and the F4 (Sue in particular)
could offer up a new dimension in character building between franchises
-The Fantastic Four and the Inhumans could give a great Skrull/Kree Invasion story.
-Namor could come in as a phase 5 title and would be the first time a primary villain
became a primary hero.

 

[SAUspartan]

I'm going to love this thread when a certain person is wrong about comic con and Disney doesn't get jack from Fox.

 

[jaymes_e06]

Again: it hasn't even opened up in the biggest market yet. Even if I did trust that or any other online source to accurately speak for the general audience (money, cold hard numbers, do a far better job than that), it's still an incomplete picture.

That means not as much though I concede that it could change the more people that see it. 30,000+ is a good enough sample to give a okay consensus of course the more ratings the better.

You are only speaking this because it fits your narrative. Truth is most people aren't trolling in fact statistics prove otherwise that people are generally honest about thier feelings when asked about them in a rating or q&a.

No offense but some of you need to take a statistics class... a few outliers does not normally destroy a sample at this magnitude that these blockbusters get rated (200,000+).

 

[First Avenger]

I'm going to love this thread when a certain person is wrong about comic con and Disney doesn't get jack from Fox.

So you support Fox throwing crap and being disrepectful to one of Marvel's most important properties? Huh.

 

[Val_Zod]

I'm going to love this thread when a certain person is wrong about comic con and Disney doesn't get jack from Fox.

So you take delight over the misfortune of fans who just want a proper portrayal of a property they love?

 

[Dark Raven]

Sounds like one of the FFINO defenders who would've loved for that movie to do well enough to get a sequel even though it was complete crap.

 

[First Avenger]

He thinks Apocalypse doing 700 mil is great when it's bad given its 234 mil budget.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

They'll bump it up to the top just to have Marisa covered head to toe in gold paint like the golden girl from Goldfinger.

But then she'd be a more accurate screen representation of Aunt May.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

He thinks Apocalypse doing 700 mil is great when it's bad given its 234 mil budget.

Is that the production plus marketing budget or just the production budget?

700 million will net roughly 315 million. Take roughly 35 million away from that for Marvel's cut and that leaves about 280 million. If that budget doesn't include marketing, 700 million will almost certainly be a money-loser.

 

[First Avenger]

Is that the production plus marketing budget or just the production budget?

700 million will net roughly 315 million. Take roughly 35 million away from that for Marvel's cut and that leaves about 280 million. If that budget doesn't include marketing, 700 million will almost certainly be a money-loser.

Production only.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

Production only.

Okay, so figuring a very conservative estimate of $70 million for the marketing budget then $700 million WWBO would be a loss of about $24 million - not nearly as bad as what they lost on FF, but I have to think Fox management is hoping for better than $700 million WW if they spent that much.

 

[Zarex]

Is that the production plus marketing budget or just the production budget?

700 million will net roughly 315 million. Take roughly 35 million away from that for Marvel's cut and that leaves about 280 million. If that budget doesn't include marketing, 700 million will almost certainly be a money-loser.

I think the Marvel cut may a bit high - I've read it may be as low as 1 or 2% of the gross, which is the best Arad could get after originally signing off on a net points deal. Disney gets 5% of Deadpool solos and I believe the FF is somewhere in the middle - maybe 3%?

https://www.thestreet.com/story/134...dpool-is-paying-dividends-for-disney-too.html

But if the rumored $234M budget is correct, XM:A will struggle to break even (All #s are estimates and in millions

BO Gross:$ 750
Marvel % ( 15)
Theater % (375)
Production (234)
Marketing (100)
Net $ 26

My guess is we will end up see lower budgeted present day spinoffs from FOX (including more Deadpool, X-Force, New Mutants, Gambit etc.) instead of Kinberg's proposed 90s era "X-Men in Space" movie.

 

[First Avenger]

Okay, so figuring a very conservative estimate of $70 million for the marketing budget and $700 million WWBO would be a loss of about $24 million - not nearly as bad as what they lost on FF, but I have to think Fox management is hoping for better than $700 million WW if they spent that much.

Reviews are not helping right now and it opened lower than DoFP in most countries.

 

[Flint Marko]

That means not as much though I concede that it could change the more people that see it. 30,000+ is a good enough sample to give a okay consensus of course the more ratings the better.

You are only speaking this because it fits your narrative. Truth is most people aren't trolling in fact statistics prove otherwise that people are generally honest about thier feelings when asked about them in a rating or q&a.

No offense but some of you need to take a statistics class... a few outliers does not normally destroy a sample at this magnitude that these blockbusters get rated (200,000+).

Hmmmm....

IMDB: Cesspool for Idiots

http://forums.superherohype.com/showpost.php?p=28786305&postcount=607

What was that about only speaking of this because it "fits my narrative"?

I'll say it again because you ignored it the first time: the box office, including opening weekend numbers as well as the next few week trends, combined with a number of other factors, do a far better job of speaking for the general audience than one website that you yourself even refer to as a "cesspool for idiots".

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

I think the Marvel cut may a bit high - I've read it may be as low as 1 or 2% of the gross, which is the best Arad could get after originally signing off on a net points deal. Disney gets 5% of Deadpool solos and I believe the FF is somewhere in the middle - maybe 3%?

https://www.thestreet.com/story/134...dpool-is-paying-dividends-for-disney-too.html

But if the rumored $234M budget is correct, XM:A will struggle to break even (All #s are estimates and in millions

BO Gross:$ 750
Marvel % ( 15)
Theater % (375)
Production (234)
Marketing (100)
Net $ 26

My guess is we will end up see lower budgeted present day spinoffs from FOX (including more Deadpool, X-Force, New Mutants, Gambit etc.) instead of Kinberg's proposed 90s era "X-Men in Space" movie.

But we were talking $700 million box office, not $750 (according to BO Mojo, DOFP made about $748 million, so with these reviews, it almost certainly will do worse than DOFP), and at $700 million, no matter what math you use, I think they'll be losing money.

I think Fox calculated that if they did a bigger, more epic film, they could count on their built-in audience and surpass DOFP. But that seems relatively unlikely now.

 

[wobbly]

Having seen Apocalypse....a pretty big step down from Dofp, but (for me) better than X3.

Overall I didn't dislike it, but I can certainly understand a lot of the critiques on its flaws. 6/10 from me.

Oh, and Kinbergs gotta go. Even Singer is gonna struggle with a screenplay by that hack (funniest and somewhat ironic joke in the flick is a dig at another of Simple Simon's efforts).

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

Hmmmm....



http://forums.superherohype.com/showpost.php?p=28786305&postcount=607

What was that about only speaking of this because it "fits my narrative"?

I'll say it again because you ignored it the first time: the box office, including opening weekend numbers as well as the next few week trends, combined with a number of other factors, do a far better job of speaking for the general audience than one website that you yourself even refer to as a "cesspool for idiots".

I think in terms of predicting Box office, HSX does about the best job I've seen. Since they're constantly adjusting as people put money in and take money out, the number is much more responsive to all the variables than most sites that make a prediction a month out and then just hold it until the numbers come in.

Right now HSX is predicting about $189 million domestic http://www.hsx.com/security/view/XMEN6.

For comparison, DOFP did about $234 million domestic. Now granted, we're heaping guess on top of guess related to something that is historically very hard to predict, but if HSX is close on the domestic number, that would translate to roughly $600 million worldwide - which would result in a pretty big loss almost any way you look at it.

 

[SyntaxError]

That means not as much though I concede that it could change the more people that see it. 30,000+ is a good enough sample to give a okay consensus of course the more ratings the better.

You are only speaking this because it fits your narrative. Truth is most people aren't trolling in fact statistics prove otherwise that people are generally honest about thier feelings when asked about them in a rating or q&a.

No offense but some of you need to take a statistics class... a few outliers does not normally destroy a sample at this magnitude that these blockbusters get rated (200,000+).

Most of the votes on imdb were there way before the movie was released. These are fanboys that put 10 pre-emptively. The audience ratings on imdb and rottentomatoes are the most unreliable metrics to use.

 

[First Avenger]

Having seen Apocalypse....a pretty big step down from Dofp, but (for me) better than X3.

Overall I didn't dislike it, but I can certainly understand a lot of the critiques on its flaws. 6/10 from me.

Oh, and Kinbergs gotta go. Even Singer is gonna struggle with a screenplay by that hack (funniest and somewhat ironic joke in the flick is a dig at another of Simple Simon's efforts).

I think x3 pissed fans off more because of the choices made in the story,while Apoc works a little better as an X-Men movie(though I hate the whole Mystique angle and many characters are wasted). Quality wise they are pretty similar,you can tell the writer was the same,with DoFP being the great exception. I couldn't believe Bryan Singer directed this movie safe for a couple of scenes.

 

[Zarex]

But we were talking $700 million box office, not $750 (according to BO Mojo, DOFP made about $748 million, so with these reviews, it almost certainly will do worse than DOFP), and at $700 million, no matter what math you use, I think they'll be losing money.

I think Fox calculated that if they did a bigger, more epic film, they could count on their built-in audience and surpass DOFP. But that seems relatively unlikely now.

Yeah, $700 is much more likely. That would put the estimated BO take at $2M and probably lead to a bit of franchise restructuring. XM:FC was in a similar situation a few years back, but that got great reviews and FOX still had the "OT cast returns" card to play. If the BO estimate holds this situation will be quite a bit stickier.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

Is 7.6 on IMDB even that great?

Seems a little better than 51% on RT, but it doesn't seem like anything to get excited about.

 

[SyntaxError]

Not sure why we're talking about XM:A, but by my math:

(For reference, here is Deadline's estimates on XMOFP profit margins. With a lesser budget, the film was estimated to have earned 77.48M in profit off a 745M gross. http://deadline.com/2015/03/x-men-days-of-future-past-profit-box-office-2014-1201389620/)

234M production
130M marketing (minimum, conservative estimate says same as DOFP (see article), but most tentpoles cost around 160M these days)

Thats 360 -> so 720 to break even (around).

But theres also:
100M participations (DOFP cost as much. Fassbender, Lawrence, McAvoy are not cheap. Singer, as a seasoned director and experienced hand, will have a fair share too(think JJ Abrams in SW:TFA))
~30M Residuals/off-the-tops (Marvel cut, distributor cut etc.)

So...720 + 130; 850 to break even by my estimate.

From the films international opening and tracking domestic, projecting a ~700 final gross, which leaves it firmly in the red until ancilliary revenues kick in.

 

[Endeavor]

I'm going to love this thread when a certain person is wrong about comic con and Disney doesn't get jack from Fox.

Some of us will still keep hoping that the rights revert and FOX never tries anything with the characters again.

And what happens when you're the one that's wrong?

 

[Endeavor]

https://fncd.net/v?id=rTHR-PD

Under the 2 month mark now