The Dark Knight Rises The TDKR Box Office Thread II

[Dragon_316ca]

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?...&set=a.428899164238.209774.18247824238&type=1

Not surprisingly, IMAX Darling Harbour have smashed their records for pre-sales with 'The Dark Knight Rises'. A total of 24 sessions have been sold out already.

 

[Iceman]

The 1st day is really almost 2 days when you include huge midnights. Avengers didn't have huge midnights and that's why it had more regular drops. Also none of Nolan's previous films except TDK are really comparable to the hype for this.

 

[db85usa]

The 1st day is really almost 2 days when you include huge midnights. Avengers didn't have huge midnights and that's why it had more regular drops. Also none of Nolan's previous films except TDK are really comparable to the hype for this.

Lol Iceman and Tony Stark trying to downplay Avenger's reckoning...

Rises won't drop more than 30-35% the day after.

 

[Iceman]

Lol Iceman and Tony Stark trying to downplay Avenger's reckoning...

Rises won't drop more than 30-35% the day after.

I didn't say how much it was going to drop, just that it will drop much more than it would without the massive midnights it's going to have. Simple maths. Avengers didn't have huge midnights and TDKR will. Doesn't affect total weekend potential, just the distribution of the returns.

 

[ALP]

It will really be amazing if this beats the opening BO records of Avengers and Deathly Hallows 2. Those movies had the upperhand thanks to 3D. And 3D for movies like those usually make up about 50-60% of ticket sales. A lot more people will have to see TDKR for it to beat their numbers.

 

[db85usa]

It will really be amazing if this beats the opening BO records of Avengers and Deathly Hallows 2. Those movies had the upperhand thanks to 3D. And 3D for movies like those usually make up about 50-60% of ticket sales. A lot more people will have to see TDKR for it to beat their numbers.

They will. We CAN bring the record back.

 

[buff17]

I think a lot of people are underestimating the fanbase at this point as well. I already have tickets to an IMAX midnight opening, and a saturday 11pm session. After those I'll decide if I want to take a chance on Sunday evening.

I stand behind my predictions, I think it will look something like this OW.
88m - Friday
67m - Saturday
55m - Sunday

I wouldn't be surprised however if it takes the opening day record at this point. It's hard to fathom though this could beat Potter without the 3d help. However, with the demand of opening up more screens...it's possible.

 

[Tony Stark]

Lol Iceman and Tony Stark trying to downplay Avenger's reckoning...

Rises won't drop more than 30-35% the day after.

Please go quote where I was downplaying TDK. Go freaking look at box office returns before you go slam people and accuse them of stuff.

All I was saying is the higher the midnight there is usually higher Saturday drop and a LOWER Sunday drop. Get it?

I was showing that if it makes 100M Saturday that it will most likely have a higher than 30% drop and that doesn't mean people don't like the movie.

 

[redfirebird2008]

Please go quote where I was downplaying TDK. Go freaking look at box office returns before you go slam people and accuse them of stuff.

All I was saying is the higher the midnight there is usually higher Saturday drop and a LOWER Sunday drop. Get it?

I was showing that if it makes 100M Saturday that it will most likely have a higher than 30% drop and that doesn't mean people don't like the movie.

Yeah, $100m opening day would require probably around $40m or higher at midnight. That is a full freaking day as far as most big movies go. So take that part of it out and you're left with $60m. Even if it stayed flat or slightly increased from $60m, that's still a drop of 35% or higher.

 

[Tony Stark]

I think a lot of people are underestimating the fanbase at this point as well. I already have tickets to an IMAX midnight opening, and a saturday 11pm session. After those I'll decide if I want to take a chance on Sunday evening.

I stand behind my predictions, I think it will look something like this OW.
88m - Friday
67m - Saturday
55m - Sunday

I wouldn't be surprised however if it takes the opening day record at this point. It's hard to fathom though this could beat Potter without the 3d help. However, with the demand of opening up more screens...it's possible.

No one is underestimating the fanbase. This is about logistics. You look at TDK being 174M adjusted for inflation as largest non 3D opening weekend, and Twilight New Moon being around 78M for largest opening day adjusted for inflation. Now I think there will be a bump from TDK, but to tie Avengers it needs a 16% bump in opening audience from TDK, which is pretty large. A 10% bump, would put it at 190M which I think is more realistic. Now I could be wrong, but we did see with Avengers not only the 3D boost, but the fact that the theaters were running max capacity, the AMC credit card system was brought to it's knees. There's a human factor here, only so many screens, so many seats, so many people working the ticket booths.

If people want to write me off because my screen name happens to be a Marvel character, well there's nothing I can do about that. I can tell you if it does break the record, I will be on here Sunday afternoon on 7/22 congratulating the film.

 

[DoomsdayApex]

Yeah, $100m opening day would require probably around $40m or higher at midnight. That is a full freaking day as far as most big movies go. So take that part of it out and you're left with $60m. Even if it stayed flat or slightly increased from $60m, that's still a drop of 35% or higher.

Exactly, you can't have TDKR do 100 million on Friday and not expect a 30-40% drop on Saturday. Sure, it would still be on pace to break the OW record but a record setting day like that has it's way of slowing down alot faster.

 

[db85usa]

Please go quote where I was downplaying TDK. Go freaking look at box office returns before you go slam people and accuse them of stuff.

All I was saying is the higher the midnight there is usually higher Saturday drop and a LOWER Sunday drop. Get it?

I was showing that if it makes 100M Saturday that it will most likely have a higher than 30% drop and that doesn't mean people don't like the movie.

And in a previous post, I clearly state it all depends on what happens opening day. I even explain a $100m+ Friday would equate up to a 30% drop equivalent to TDK numbers.

 

[db85usa]

Don't forget, there's the Marathon, more IMAX theaters and also 3:45 AM showings. I guarantee you people that work odd shifts or are night owls will attend that showtime. So that will also boost the OW a little.

The SHH poll suggests a $250m OW, lol wow.

 

[Iceman]

Edit

 

[Iceman]

Not getting an opening weekend record doesn't matter if it goes on to make $500/600m. I just said in the other thread if the ending is Nolan at his best (he's amazing at resolving films) there's no limit to replay value at the tail end of summer, especially in a year with such dire blockbuster type films (with very few exceptions) so far.

 

[Tony Stark]

Not getting an opening weekend record doesn't matter if it goes on to make $500/600m. I just said in the other thread if the ending is Nolan at his best (he's amazing at resolving films) there's no limit to replay value at the tail end of summer, especially in a year with such dire blockbuster type films (with very few exceptions) so far.

I agree with that. I think that this movie will have a little bit more competition to deal with than TDK had, but if the WOM is good, it should clear 500M easily and perhaps surpass TDK. The early fan reviews have been positive, and I'm not sure when the embargo lifts, but if the reviews are anywhere as popular as the early fan reaction it should do well.

The good news is when Spider-man opened to 35M, I thought it might provide some competition for TDKR, but the legs quickly fell off that horse, I'm expecting an over 50% drop this weekend, and it probably will be of little consequence to TDKR by the time it starts.

 

[Iceman]

The reviews will for sure compare it to TDK and if there is any kind of consensus that it's better I will go for $600m. If it's as good then $500m. If it disappoints then $400m.

 

[batman1115]

Are we close to taking the opening weekend spot from the recent record holder or do we still have a ways to go?

 

[db85usa]

Are we close to taking the opening weekend spot from the recent record holder or do we still have a ways to go?

OW - Realistic: $180-$200
OW - Unrealistic: $230-$250

 

[Travesty]

Don't forget, there's the Marathon, more IMAX theaters and also 3:45 AM showings. I guarantee you people that work odd shifts or are night owls will attend that showtime. So that will also boost the OW a little.

The SHH poll suggests a $250m OW, lol wow.

The money for both BB and TDK are going towards TDKR? I thought each movie would be counted separate? If so, that is a HUGE boost on OW.

 

[Dr. Ruth]

Not ENTIRELY sure if the math is correct, but if you factor out the 30% surcharge from 52% of the tickets sold during its opening weekend...

The Avengers would have made 175 million dollars without 3D.

 

[batbax]

The money for both BB and TDK are going towards TDKR? I thought each movie would be counted separate? If so, that is a HUGE boost on OW.

Im fairly certain only TDKR portion of the marathon will count.

 

[redfirebird2008]

The money for both BB and TDK are going towards TDKR? I thought each movie would be counted separate? If so, that is a HUGE boost on OW.

It counts just like marathon shows for Avengers, DH2, etc. counted. But it does not provide a huge boost. There aren't that many marathon shows, so it's a minimal amount at the end of the day. Maybe a $1-2m boost, but not much more than that.

 

[Liam_H]

Not ENTIRELY sure if the math is correct, but if you factor out the 30% surcharge from 52% of the tickets sold during its opening weekend...

The Avengers would have made 175 million dollars without 3D.

I believe it would be higher than that since TDK OW was $175 million adjusted. Considering inflation, more screens, selling more tickets etc. TA with only 2D would have made more than that.

 

[Tony Stark]

Not ENTIRELY sure if the math is correct, but if you factor out the 30% surcharge from 52% of the tickets sold during its opening weekend...

The Avengers would have made 175 million dollars without 3D.

It would be a little more than that because the IMAX 3D would have the same bump as IMAX non 3D, which was around 10% of the 3D gross, so probably 185M or so. I think that's why most people are setting 180-190 for TDKR, it's basically Avengers ticket sales without the 3D bump. The two will be pretty close as far as ticket sales.