The Dark Knight Rises The TDKR Box Office Thread II

[kvz5]

@THR: 'Dark Knight Rises' Pacing to Score Biggest Weekend Opening of All Time For 2D Pic http://t.co/qCqdxiXU

 

[batbax]

Plenty of revisionist history will be forthcoming from certain posters no doubt.

 

[Anjow1060]

Um... the movie already has $150 in presales. And to be honest... most of those are going to be for Thursday - midnight and Friday sales. I don't think the general audiences are buying tix for Sat/Sunday yet.

And I think the friday gross could very well do the 200mill what with the unprecedented amount of screens this thing is opening on and given how many people will buy tickets day of. You have to remember not everyone is as nuts about this as we are (read: paranoid of missing the first showing possible).

If it already has $150 in pre-sales.... there is a very REAL chance of it breaking 200mil easy.

- Jow

 

[batbax]

Where was it confirmed that it has 150 in pre-sales??? That seems really unlikely

 

[DoomsdayApex]

Yeah, I don't see how TDKR already has 150 million in presales. That's beyond impossible.

 

[batbax]

I read somewhere something like 20 million, which is far more doable, but 150 wouldnt even like you said be possible.

 

[Travesty]

Yeah, I don't see how TDKR already has 150 million in presales. That's beyond impossible.

It doesn't, its just predicted to do that opening weekend, and a few articles took that quote, and reworded it to the point of it sounding like its already made that money.

For OW, I'm predicting around 170-190.

 

[db85usa]

It doesn't, its just predicted to do that opening weekend, and a few articles took that quote, and reworded it to the point of it sounding like its already made that money.

For OW, I'm predicting around 170-190.

Right. It's tracking better than TDK at $150+ million for opening weekend but in all probability, $170-$190 million is the likely number unless the opening day is $90+ million!

 

[db85usa]

Also, since ASM was released, tracking numbers and surveys for Rises have spiked nearly dead even with TA and is easily on pace to be the largest non 3D opening weekend of all time.

 

[DoomsdayApex]

It doesn't, its just predicted to do that opening weekend, and a few articles took that quote, and reworded it to the point of it sounding like its already made that money.

For OW, I'm predicting around 170-190.

Yep, pretty much what I figured. That number was astronomically high for any film to produce.

 

[buff17]

One thing a lot of people aren't looking at is that TDKR is opening in the middle of the summer- meaning that it's weekly numbers will be much bigger but lot of the GA may skip out on opening weekend. Don't get me wrong I think it's opening weekend will be huge, though almost to hard to call at this point. As we get closer we will have a better gauge. The way Avengers smashed the record it's hard to imagine it could go much higher. If it does I think $215 million is the absolute ceiling. So as of now I'm seeing anywhere between $180 to $215m.

However the first 7 days record is assured to be broken. A lot of business that would have happened on the weekend will spill over during the week in the event of sellouts or people trying to avoid crazy crowds- as opposed to second weekend like Avengers. The Monday through Thursday portion of TDK was bigger than Avengers. As I've anticipated for quite a while, I think the single day Monday gross will be in reach.

I predict somewhere between 270 to 305 million first 7 days. Its playing uncontested it's second weekend, and full second week as well so records may fall depending on the reviews, and word of mouth. None of this really means anything unless it's well reviewed. If it gets rave reviews we might be looking at a lot of records.

If it gets rave reviews, and the OW record. Well the above poster will absolutely be right. It will own all of those records.

One thing that IS concerning to me at this point is the level of awareness from the GA. Leading up to TDK, my facebook news feed was constantly getting TDK related stuff. This is free advertising. Who knows maybe twitter is a more prevalent indicator now. We all really need to facebook, and twitter it up with TDKR stuff.

cliffs-

If well reviewed will break Opening Week(first 7 days) record.
Opening weekend to close to call at this point.
I'm going to wait a few more weeks before I give a more educated projection.

Screw it, after hearing the reactions from the screenings I'm going to go ahead and go on record.

$210 million opening weekend. $300 million opening week. Due to demand it will spill over to Monday smash the single day Monday record as well. If it's as good as they say, second weekend record may also be in reach.

Now for the boldest of bold because it's a summer release- first 17 days could hit $500 million. Yes, insane. This is the Star Wars of our generation.

 

[Weadazoid]

Um... the movie already has $150 in presales. And to be honest... most of those are going to be for Thursday - midnight and Friday sales. I don't think the general audiences are buying tix for Sat/Sunday yet.

And I think the friday gross could very well do the 200mill what with the unprecedented amount of screens this thing is opening on and given how many people will buy tickets day of. You have to remember not everyone is as nuts about this as we are (read: paranoid of missing the first showing possible).

If it already has $150 in pre-sales.... there is a very REAL chance of it breaking 200mil easy.

- Jow

wow if it has 150 in presales is will probably make close to oh..... I'd say


over 400 mill opening weekend


cause ya gotta figure 150 by end of day on friday

200 on Saturday

followed by another 50 to 75 on Sunday


LOL

 

[db85usa]

Rises has to earn more than a $47,000 average (Like TA did) and if it opens up to the same amount of theaters as TDK, it still comes up short with $205 million for an OW.

So realistically, Rises has to earn $48,000 average and open up to the same amount of theaters as TDK or more and without the 3D boost it's gonna be very hard to do. $190 million OW is a realistic number for TDKR.

 

[Thoix]

Rises has to earn more than a $47,000 average (Like TA did) and if it opens up to the same amount of theaters as TDK, it still comes up short with $205 million for an OW.

So realistically, Rises has to earn $48,000 average and open up to the same amount of theaters as TDK or more and without the 3D boost it's gonna be very hard to do. $190 million OW is a realistic number for TDKR.

Isn't it opening on a lot more IMAX screens though?

 

[redfirebird2008]

Isn't it opening on a lot more IMAX screens though?

Around 100 more IMAX screens than Avengers. But that's nothing compared to 3,000+ screens in 3D, especially since a lot of theaters will have more 3D showings than 2D showings available. For Avengers, my local theater had 2 screens running it in 3D and only 1 screen running it in 2D. The 2D showtimes always sold out faster than the 3D showtimes, so then there would be a spillover effect.

 

[speculativeone]

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[db85usa]

TA had over 50% of its OW in 3D sales. It would have grossed $175-$180 altogether without 3D. Rises is banking on IMAX to compete against the loss of 3D obviously since over an hour of footage was shot exclusively for IMAX.

I just wish the demand for IMAX was that of 3D!

 

[pixiesvision]

Does anyone think TDKR will be affected by the Olympics at all? I'm not sure what it's been like for other years during the Olympic games, but I was wondering if there has been examples of films affected by it. I hope not, and of course I'd like to think people will go see this film in the theaters (esp. IMAX) no matter what.

 

[Webfoot Hero]

TA had over 50% of its OW in 3D sales. It would have grossed $175-$180 altogether without 3D. Rises is banking on IMAX to compete against the loss of 3D obviously since over an hour of footage was shot exclusively for IMAX.

I just wish the demand for IMAX was that of 3D!

A lot of people don't notice much difference in picture size and quality to noticeably change their viewing habits. 3D is much more tangible thing to see versus the IMAX.

 

[Travesty]

I just wish the demand for IMAX was that of 3D!

Not me. I like IMAX, but I hate how LieMAX will charge you the same amount as real IMAX. At least with 3D, you're gonna get the same quality of 3D regardless, so it feels fair. But with IMAX, it's pretty ****** how they can scam you on a inferior product, and sell you on the idea that it's the same thing. And there are so many LieMAXs popping up.

 

[Webfoot Hero]

Does anyone think TDKR will be affected by the Olympics at all? I'm not sure what it's been like for other years during the Olympic games, but I was wondering if there has been examples of films affected by it. I hope not, and of course I'd like to think people will go see this film in the theaters (esp. IMAX) no matter what.

I don't think so. The Olympics take up such little time in the day for the average person, there's going to be plenty of time to take in TDKR.

 

[Webfoot Hero]

Not me. I like IMAX, but I hate how LieMAX will charge you the same amount as real IMAX. At least with 3D, you're gonna get the same quality of 3D regardless, so it feels fair. But with IMAX, it's pretty ****** how they can scam you on a inferior product, and sell you on the idea that it's the same thing. And there are so many LieMAXs popping up.

I think that's the big reason why people don't care as much about IMAX. They've been lied to and deceived on a product that doesn't really change a viewing experience for most people.

 

[redfirebird2008]

TA had over 50% of its OW in 3D sales. It would have grossed $175-$180 altogether without 3D. Rises is banking on IMAX to compete against the loss of 3D obviously since over an hour of footage was shot exclusively for IMAX.

I just wish the demand for IMAX was that of 3D!

It isn't entirely an issue of demand. It's mostly an issue of the cost of implementing the two formats. 3D only requires a new projector while IMAX requires a new projector, new screen, new seat configuration, and new sound system. It's a hugely expensive investment for the theater owners compared to just putting in a new projector.

 

[Webfoot Hero]

It isn't entirely an issue of demand. It's mostly an issue of the cost of implementing the two formats. 3D only requires a new projector while IMAX requires a new projector, new screen, new seat configuration, and new sound system. It's a hugely expensive investment for the theater owners compared to just putting in a new projector.

Most theaters can only put in 1, maybe 2, IMAX screens, while having almost almost every other screen easily convertible to 3D. That's a big reason why theaters push 3D over IMAX.

 

[db85usa]

Not me. I like IMAX, but I hate how LieMAX will charge you the same amount as real IMAX. At least with 3D, you're gonna get the same quality of 3D regardless, so it feels fair. But with IMAX, it's pretty ****** how they can scam you on a inferior product, and sell you on the idea that it's the same thing. And there are so many LieMAXs popping up.

I'm seeing the trilogy in LieMAX. I have not seen a movie at a fake IMAX but a friend of mine said the screen was just closer and a little bigger and noticed the sound was better/louder.

Obviously, I'm going to see Rises again on a real IMAX screen 10 miles from me on the Saturday or Sunday during the OW but they were sold out for the 20th at midnight and only had a 3:45 AM slot open with 30% tickets left.. And that's just too late/early for me, lol.