Thor: Ragnarok Box Office Prediction - Part 1

[ultradog]

As a subscriber to this thread, may I kindly suggest that these off-topic Natalie Portman posts continue, if they need to, on the official Natalie Portman thread for this film:

http://forums.superherohype.com/showthread.php?t=498277

 

[Ragnaroknroll]

As a subscriber to this thread, may I kindly suggest that these off-topic Natalie Portman posts continue, if they need to, on the official Natalie Portman thread for this film:

http://forums.superherohype.com/showthread.php?t=498277

Fair enough. My response to @RoryTate is in that thread.

 

[ultradog]

Despite the false alarm with wrong estimates last Friday, Wednesday the 10th was the first day that T:R made more $ than JL, despite being released 2 weeks earlier, and currently in less theaters (325/518).

T:R will be left in 242 theaters next week, compared to DS which was only in 162 at this time. T:R is also moving ahead of JL in number of theaters tomorrow, as JL is moving down to only 226.

 

[Warlock]

It also took more than JL on Thursday, almost certain to outdo it this weekend then. I wonder how much is left in the tank domestic/OS?

 

[ultradog]

It also took more than JL on Thursday, almost certain to outdo it this weekend then. I wonder how much is left in the tank domestic/OS?

Domestic is easy to gauge, comparing it to DS from last year. DS made $1.6M more after day 70, T:R has consistently beaten DS, so T:R has $2-2.5M left. It needs $2.4M to reach $315M, so there is still that chance. Trouble is, we won't know for at least a month, so it's like watching grass grow.

OS is virtually done, less than $0.5M left.

 

[warriorking]

Weekend Totals:

Domestic: $313,012,320 36.8%
+ Foreign: $537,812,843 63.2%
= Worldwide: $850,825,163

 

[bubbadoom]

BO update...January 7, 2018 - sunday

TIH $134,806,913 / $263,427,551
Thor $181,030,624 / $449,326,618
T:dw $206,362,140 / $644,571,402
T:R $312,478,786 / $849,795,134


BO update...January 14, 2018 - sunday estimates

TIH $134,806,913 / $263,427,551
Thor $181,030,624 / $449,326,618
T:dw $206,362,140 / $644,571,402
T:R $313,012,320 / $850,825,163

 

[warriorking]

Domestic: $313,447,531 36.8%
+ Foreign: $538,062,890 63.2%
= Worldwide: $851,510,421

 

[bubbadoom]

BO update...January 14, 2018 - sunday estimates

TIH $134,806,913 / $263,427,551
Thor $181,030,624 / $449,326,618
T:dw $206,362,140 / $644,571,402
T:R $313,012,320 / $850,825,163


BO update...January 28, 2018 - sunday estimates

TIH $134,806,913 / $263,427,551
Thor $181,030,624 / $449,326,618
T:dw $206,362,140 / $644,571,402
T:R $313,696,009 / $851,904,921

 

[warriorking]

Domestic: $313,708,483 36.8%
+ Foreign: $538,635,558 63.2%
= Worldwide: $852,344,041

 

[Krystal]

So can it reach $315m when it is 1,291,000 off and making $13,000 a day?

Because I was assured it would.

 

[ultradog]

So can it reach $315m when it is 1,291,000 off and making $13,000 a day?

Because I was assured it would.

I never saw anyone guarantee $315M, but I remember you saying "Impossible!" to the suggestion. Fact is, it is still on pace to do it. Doctor Strange made $1M after this point last year, and T:R has been outpacing it very handily, well above the 30% better it would need to do (91% better today, for example).

We should know in a couple weeks if it still has a strong shot at it, because this Friday T:R goes into the discount theaters and will get a big boost, just as Doctor Strange did last year. I'm just not sure if it can stay 30% better than Doctor Strange once it's at the discount theaters. DS made over $550K over the following 2 weeks. So T:R probably needs to make $750K over these next 2 weeks to stay on pace. If I had to bet, I would say it will do it. If it doesn't make it to $315M, it will be extremely close.

 

[warriorking]

19 More days and my Digital copy goes live..
Then I can watch it as much as I want...t:

Wish I would have purchased it when it first become available ..
They had a screw up and you could download and watch it immediately..
They quickly fixed the mistake so I missed out...

 

[bubbadoom]

BO update...January 28, 2018 - sunday estimates

TIH $134,806,913 / $263,427,551
Thor $181,030,624 / $449,326,618
T:dw $206,362,140 / $644,571,402
T:R $313,696,009 / $851,904,921


BO update...February 4, 2018 - sunday estimates

TIH $134,806,913 / $263,427,551
Thor $181,030,624 / $449,326,618
T:dw $206,362,140 / $644,571,402
T:R $314,000,273 / $852,635,831

 

[Blitzkrieg]

http://forums.superherohype.com/showthread.php?p=35814901&highlight=#post35814901

My optimistic prediction would be (320+524) = 844 million world-wide and a reserved prediction would be (306+511) = 817 million.

I was really close but even then, Ragnarok was able to beat my optimistic projection. That's really impressive. The final total is absolutely amazing.

 

[warriorking]

Domestic: $314,306,225 36.8%
+ Foreign: $538,711,803 63.2%
= Worldwide: $853,018,028

 

[All-Father]

Fantastic run. And more the deserved!

 

[bubbadoom]

BO update...February 4, 2018 - sunday estimates

TIH $134,806,913 / $263,427,551
Thor $181,030,624 / $449,326,618
T:dw $206,362,140 / $644,571,402
T:R $314,000,273 / $852,635,831


BO update...February 18, 2018 - sunday estimates

TIH $134,806,913 / $263,427,551
Thor $181,030,624 / $449,326,618
T:dw $206,362,140 / $644,571,402
T:R $314,589,124 / $853,408,372


A good run indeed!

 

[warriorking]

Watching my digital release as I type...t:

 

[BigThor]

Within 10 million of GOTG 2, sweet.

 

[Webfoot Hero]

Watching my digital release as I type...t:

Still a couple more weeks before I can own the BR/DVD/Digital version. Once I get it, I'm starting my MCU marathon to prepare for IW.

 

[Iceman]

Still a couple more weeks before I can own the BR/DVD/Digital version. Once I get it, I'm starting my MCU marathon to prepare for IW.

Shame BP won’t be ready on blu-ray by then. Guess we’ll have to finish the last leg of the marathon in he cinema too in a double-Header with IW.

 

[ultradog]

T:R still has roughly $200K left in the domestic tank, but wherever it winds up exactly, it will be finishing with a 2.57 multiplier.

As you may expect, this is easily the best multiplier result for any of the 3 MCU trilogy finales (IM3 - 2.35, CA:CW - 2.28).

This multiplier also bests 3 of the 5 MCU 1st sequels (TDW - 2.4, AoU - 2.4, IM2 - 2.44), as well as The Incredible Hulk (2.45).

 

[Finarfiniel]

I had no idea that Ragnarok had the best multiplier out of all the MCU threequels, that's awesome. t: It makes sense though, CW and IM3 may have opened bigger, but they were much more front loaded and Ragnarok ended up having better legs.

 

[Webfoot Hero]

I had no idea that Ragnarok had the best multiplier out of all the MCU threequels, that's awesome. t: It makes sense though, CW and IM3 may have opened bigger, but they were much more front loaded and Ragnarok ended up having better legs.

I think it being released in late October/early November helped since there was much less competition (especially with JL bombing) and it had Thanksgiving weekend to help it.