Thor: Ragnarok Box Office Prediction - Part 1

[Flemm]

Surely we get another Thor after this.

The box office for this movie might not be the only factor there. Having done a trilogy for the big three "phase one" characters, I think the studio may want some other characters to come to the forefront after Avengers 4.

A Spidey trilogy, Black Panther, Captain Marvel. Another Doctor Strange movie.

The Asgardians and Thor are now in a position where they can move into the background for a while, or appear in a supporting role, when appropriate.

We might see a character like Valkyrie get some more development in phase 3. I think there's definitely great potential there. She was one of the best parts of this movie.

 

[Krystal]

$830 worldwide will surely get them thinking about a fourth.

Obviously they have a crowded lineup for the next couple of years but certainly not out of the question for 2021. A four year gap would give them a lot of time to think of a storyline worthy of a 3rd sequel

 

[Flemm]

Moreso than Cap or Iron Man?

I guess the difference might be Hemsworth wanting to continue.

But I think it's just as likely that the popularity of characters like Iron Man, Cap, Thor and Hulk will be used to boost some of the newer characters (new to the universe). A bit like IM was used to boost Homecoming, and Hulk contributed to this movie.

We'll see Thor and the Asgardians again, but it might not be in "Thor 4."

For example, the Doctor Stange sequel would be an interesting one. The continuation of the Asgardians' story might be a part of that movie, especially if they settle on earth.

Doctor Strange 2 becomes more of an event if characters like Valkyrie, Heimdall and Thor have supporting roles.

 

[Iceman]

The box office for this movie might not be the only factor there. Having done a trilogy for the big three "phase one" characters, I think the studio may want some other characters to come to the forefront after Avengers 4.

A Spidey trilogy, Black Panther, Captain Marvel. Another Doctor Strange movie.

The Asgardians and Thor are now in a position where they can move into the background for a while, or appear in a supporting role, when appropriate.

We might see a character like Valkyrie get some more development in phase 3. I think there's definitely great potential there. She was one of the best parts of this movie.

I see Thor differently because he has his own world(s) unlike Stark and Cap who operate on Earth. IM3 made $1.2B after all and I wasn't expecting an IM4. Thor is also unlikely to die just due to his resilience relative to those heroes.

 

[ultradog]

I can't see "Thor 4" happening. That sounds more like something WB would do to cash in, storyline be damned. Ragnarok is the ultimate Thor story, and now Odin is dead and Asgard is destroyed. Thor 4 would not be able to top it. As long as Hemsworth is still interested though, thanks to T:R, Thor will now make a great character to add interest to other MCU films, just as Hulk added interest to T:R.

 

[Flemm]

I see Thor differently because he has his own world(s) unlike Stark and Cap who operate on Earth.

You could be right, but I thought that Ragnarok left the Asgardians in a situation that would easily allow them to be integrated into earth-based stories, when needed.

Marvel Studios doesn't have much reason to base its decisions on the box office for a particular movie, as their whole strategy has been building the overall brand, and using crossover elements to enhance audience interest in the individual movies.

Characters like Hulk and Doctor Strange gave a nice boost to this movie, now the Thor universe is in a position to return the favor.

 

[Iceman]

You could be right, but I thought that Ragnarok left the Asgardians in a situation that would easily allow them to be integrated into earth-based stories, when needed.

Marvel Studios doesn't have much reason to base its decisions on the box office for a particular movie, as their whole strategy has been building the overall brand, and using crossover elements to enhance audience interest in the individual movies.

Characters like Hulk and Doctor Strange gave a nice boost to this movie, now the Thor universe is in a position to return the favor.

As in have Thor show up in other character's movies instead of further solos?

 

[Flemm]

As in have Thor show up in other character's movies instead of further solos?

I think that's reasonably likely, yeah. A lot could happen between now and then, since we're really talking about what the studio might do after Avengers 4.

I thought that Ragnarok brought the Thor trilogy to a close, a bit like Iron Man 3 did for that character.

But we have the possibility of more appearances in a supporting role, which is one of the great things about the MCU.

An example would be: establishing an Asgardian community on earth. That doesn't really need to be its own movie, but it might make sense as part of a Doctor Strange sequel, since he would presumably have "jurisdiction" as Sorcerer Supreme for anything magical or inter-dimensional happening on earth.

Valkyrie being recruited by Doctor Strange for some sort of mission, or as an ally, would be another intriguing possibility.

Thor, Valkyrie, Hulk and Doctor Strange would be a pretty cool "Defenders" line up also. With Thor taking Silver Surfer's place. They won't use the name, but we could see the other three characters being brought in as support by DS. Just an idea.

 

[Donald Thomas]

Aloha,
Absolutely fantastic numbers for Thor. The thing to remember about the Marvel Comic book universe is that it has always been cross pollinated. Heroes from other books come into the books all the time. There's no reason for Marvel not to follow that pattern and have other super heroes in a movie centered around another super hero.It worked with Homecoming and Ragnorak.
Spidey rules

 

[Krystal]

I WAS thinking it had to do with Hemsworth being willing and also money.
If Downey or Evans were both willing and cheaper wouldn't they want more Cap and IM?

 

[Iceman]

I think that's reasonably likely, yeah. A lot could happen between now and then, since we're really talking about what the studio might do after Avengers 4.

I thought that Ragnarok brought the Thor trilogy to a close, a bit like Iron Man 3 did for that character.

But we have the possibility of more appearances in a supporting role, which is one of the great things about the MCU.

An example would be: establishing an Asgardian community on earth. That doesn't really need to be its own movie, but it might make sense as part of a Doctor Strange sequel, since he would presumably have "jurisdiction" as Sorcerer Supreme for anything magical or inter-dimensional happening on earth.

Valkyrie being recruited by Doctor Strange for some sort of mission, or as an ally, would be another intriguing possibility.

Thor, Valkyrie, Hulk and Doctor Strange would be a pretty cool "Defenders" line up also. With Thor taking Silver Surfer's place. They won't use the name, but we could see the other three characters being brought in as support by DS. Just an idea.

Yeah some cool ideas. I'd like to see that Defenders lineup. Even better if they get Surfer rights back.

 

[Flemm]

I WAS thinking it had to do with Hemsworth being willing and also money.
If Downey or Evans were both willing and cheaper wouldn't they want more Cap and IM?

I'm not sure, of course, exactly what they will do, but Marvel Studios seems to be developing a unique strategy.

Instead of simply milking a particular cash cow until people get tired of it, they keep introducing new characters and different variables to avoid relying too much on one actor or one character.

Not long ago, people often said that Marvel Studios couldn't make a massively successful movie without RDJ as Iron Man in it, but does anybody really feel that way anymore?

So I think we will continue to see that. Some new characters taking the lead, but with the established characters still making appearances to maintain continuity and increase interest.

It really is a brilliant strategy, as someone was saying earlier.

Now, there may be some surprises in store during the Infinity saga. We shall see. But I think that is the overall strategy: give each character a trilogy, more or less, then change the focus for a while.

 

[hitmanyr2k]

I WAS thinking it had to do with Hemsworth being willing and also money.
If Downey or Evans were both willing and cheaper wouldn't they want more Cap and IM?

I think after Avengers 4 Evans, Hemsworth, and RDJ are done with the MCU for a long time if not for good (unless their contracts state otherwise). Ruffalo may be done as well as it's said that AV4 will be the end of Hulk's 3 movie arc. I get the sense that all of these guys want to go out on a high note, not when they're sick of playing their characters and taking the risk of making a bad movie.

 

[TheVileOne]

The question is does Thor: Ragnarok top out at $315 million, or can it get to $320 or $325 million? These numbers are sensational for a Thor film.

 

[BigThor]

To those saying no to Thor 4, booooo get off the stage.

Bring on another sequel, like Taika said it wouldn't be like a Thor 4 it would be more like a Ragnarok 2.

 

[Flemm]

To those saying no to Thor 4, booooo get off the stage.

I'm not against it, I'm just not sure if they will go that route.

We're not in a position of needing to lobby for something, nor would that make any difference.

 

[Loden Greatstorm]

Any chance this cracks $850?

 

[bubbadoom]

Any chance this cracks $850?

Another $34 million seems possible...

 

[InCali]

Another $34 million seems possible...

I'd say there's at least another 20M US/CAN so, I guess another 14M OS is possible. Not sure about those details however.

 

[BigThor]

I'm not against it, I'm just not sure if they will go that route.

We're not in a position of needing to lobby for something, nor would that make any difference.

That won't stop me from trying.

 

[First Avenger]

The world needs Taika Waititi's Thor Ragnarok 2.0

 

[Loden Greatstorm]

The world needs Taika Waititi's Thor Ragnarok 2.0

Most definitely.

 

[warriorking]

The question is does Thor: Ragnarok top out at $315 million, or can it get to $320 or $325 million? These numbers are sensational for a Thor film.

I think 315 is a good bet..
Anything above that would be gravey...
We should be at 300 Million or better by the end of the weekend...
And around 830 Million WW ....

 

[RoryTate]

Looks like the weekend actuals were a bit higher than estimated. Thor Ragnarok is now at $291.6M Domestic after a $9.89M weekend according to this tweet.

Previous estimates for the weekend were $9.66M. So it's a decent increase, but nothing too wild.

 

[iEquinox]

Yeah, the weekend hold was a little better than estimated. $9,885,936(-41.4%) for the weekend.

After Thanksgiving weekend, you would expect it to drop a little over 50% under normal circumstances. Like we said before, the timing of this very good hold suggests that the Infinity War trailer gave Ragnarok a nice boost. It also had a good internal multiplier so it doesn't look like it will be a short spike either. If it was that would have lead to a bigger drop next weekend as things went back to normal again, but it seems like that won't be the case here.

Following Doctor Strange after that weekend number would mean a domestic total of $317.0M. It has one more weekend left before Star Wars hits, and the weekend after it'll be hit hard again with a barrage of wide releases which will require a lot of screens. Hopefully it can hold on to its screens at least as well as Doctor Strange did while facing Rogue One and a group of wide releases the following week as well. If it loses fewer theaters than Doctor Strange before Christmas, it would have a good shot at reaching $320M+.