Thor's box office competition - Part 1

[Chewy]

With actuals in Thor is at 417M WW after Monday.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

 

[CaptainCraig]

These two sentences are a complete contradiction in terms.

To you maybe.

 

[CaptainCraig]

Ok, I just mapped it out. If Thor holds from this point on %-wise as well as IM2 did then it'll end at about $182M domestic.

Map it again. It's more likely to be at $182m in the next 18 days with plenty of gas left in its theatrical run. Check this mapping.

 

[DieSmiling]

People are being a little ridiculous. Barely beating a movie that came out in 1995 sixteen years later and claming it's "bigger than Batman Forever" is a little silly. X2 was clearly bigger too.

I'm happy Thor is a legitimate hit, but it's not some massive mega blockbuster.

 

[Tony Stark]

Thor being the best by far (of the year) is a bit a stretch for me. I've seen better films this year.

I haven't. 2011 has been a crap year for cinema.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

People are being a little ridiculous. Barely beating a movie that came out in 1995 sixteen years later and claming it's "bigger than Batman Forever" is a little silly. X2 was clearly bigger too.

I'm happy Thor is a legitimate hit, but it's not some massive mega blockbuster.

I'm happy for Chris Hemsworth and I didn't hate the film so I don't mind it doing well but as you just said, this was not some Iron Man style breakout. It did well but nobody should be over or understating these numbers.

Also I don't see how it doesn't get 450mil worldwide. It will hit that milestone but 200mil ain't happening. Just like Iron Man 2 didn't outgross the first domestically despite the "it still has a chance" people posting about it all of the time. This isn't bias, it's fact.

I will eat my words if the movie somehow drops 30% this weekend because it's atleast heading for a late 40's drop.

 

[BigThor]

These two sentences are a complete contradiction in terms.

At any rate, the new X-Men movie is on course to be more critically acclaimed than Thor. For whatever that's worth.

After two bad X-Men films in a row it's no suprise that they finally got with the program.

I'm happy Thor is a legitimate hit, but it's not some massive mega blockbuster.

That may be, but it still is a "blockbuster" nonetheless.

 

[kedrell]

Map it again. It's more likely to be at $182m in the next 18 days with plenty of gas left in its theatrical run. Check this mapping.

You're projections are very optimistic though. Especially with the level of direct competition it's going to continue to face for at least the next 5 weeks in a row(a big film coming out every week and sucking up screens which Thor will lose). I specifically said I used IM2's legs from here on out. Those were mediocre and I thought that though Thor had shown better legs initially, it's higher competition than IM2 faced mitigated that factor. I don't think Thor will %-wise perform worse than IM2 at this point so it seemed a reasonable comparison.

 

[TheVileOne]

The truth is Thor is NOT a massive hit, but it did well enough and at least surpassed the last Hulk movie. It was a good first movie and helps build the momentum to Avengers and in some ways does a better job of doing so than Iron Man 2 which had a rather awkward conclusion.

Captain Craig, I liked your mapping, however I think the estimates on the week day grosses are probably a little too high. I think the movie could do another $30 million or so, but it just depends on how much Disney and Paramount want to push it in one of the bloodiest summers ever. I think they should because $200 million domestic for Thor and $500 million worldwide looks really good at trade shows and in the history books and it shows that characters like Thor can be big movie characters. Thor has always been a big milestone character but in the last few decades he's been a pretty minor character in the public eye. Movie has changed that now just like with Iron Man.

 

[Evil Twin]

Thor's been behaving like a 2.7 to 2.8 multiplier since it opened and X-Men and Green Lantern are going to be direct competition for it's demographic, so I don't know where it's suddenly going to get a kick of momentum to get it back up to a 3X multiplier.

Especially since you're probably looking at 15,000+ screens that will have to open up for X-Men, Super 8, Green Lantern, Cars 2, Mr. Popper's Penguins, and Bad Teacher in the next 4 weeks. Priest, Rio, Fast Five, and Thor are all going to start losing a lot of screens very soon. Thor might take less of a hit than those others right away, but it's not performing so well that it will be immune from the hit. Frankly, at this point if a theater owner has to choose between Bridesmaids and Thor, keeping Bridesmaids makes more economic sense.

 

[kedrell]

Thor so far domestically has earned a 2.47X multiplier on it's OW. If myguess of it matching IM2's legs from here on out is true then it'll end with a 2.77X.

 

[kedrell]

If it's starting to follow IM2 then it's Tuesday DOM # should be around $750k.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

Thor is a hit, but not a massive hit. It did well enough to ignite interest in the character, personally. And that what I wanted most.

They just need to go bigger for Thor 2.

 

[moe]

After two bad X-Men films in a row it's no suprise that they finally got with the program.



That may be, but it still is a "blockbuster" nonetheless.

no. its not. its a hit.

 

[Tony Stark]

In 2011 terms Thor might as well be a massive hit. The only movies that have a chance of topping 300 million this summer are Harry Potter and Transformers. After the piece of crap that was TF2, Transformers has got to have phenomenal reviews or it may not pass 300. HP7/2 will probably do close to a billion dollars world wide, but in the states, he's never tracked that well, and honestly there's alot of fatigue with the series, so I think you'll see the typical big open followed by a 60% drop, which will bode well for Cap.

The dark horse this summer could be Cowboys vs. Aliens. It will either be the next Wild Wild West, or it could be a smash hit like Independance Day. Im not sure what early tracking has for it, but with Harrison Ford, Daniel Craig, and Favreau's first post Iron Man effort, I think it has alot going for it. The other one could be Super 8, it looks intriguing, and I don't think it will have a big open, but it could be a strong runner like Inception was last year.

All in all, you have to look at approx 180 mil or so domestic, compared to what other films have/will do in 2011.

Also I'm a big one for the quality of the movie, over box office returns. Fast 5 and Pirates are going to end up grossing more than Thor, but there's no question which is the better movie of the three.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

With Harry Potter, that's because Fantasy films usually do better worldwide than domestic so I'm not surprised Thor hasn't gotten to $200 million. I think it's hitting Marvel's expectations.

 

[moe]

In 2011 terms Thor might as well be a massive hit. The only movies that have a chance of topping 300 million this summer are Harry Potter and Transformers. After the piece of crap that was TF2, Transformers has got to have phenomenal reviews or it may not pass 300. HP7/2 will probably do close to a billion dollars world wide, but in the states, he's never tracked that well, and honestly there's alot of fatigue with the series, so I think you'll see the typical big open followed by a 60% drop, which will bode well for Cap.

The dark horse this summer could be Cowboys vs. Aliens. It will either be the next Wild Wild West, or it could be a smash hit like Independance Day. Im not sure what early tracking has for it, but with Harrison Ford, Daniel Craig, and Favreau's first post Iron Man effort, I think it has alot going for it. The other one could be Super 8, it looks intriguing, and I don't think it will have a big open, but it could be a strong runner like Inception was last year.

All in all, you have to look at approx 180 mil or so domestic, compared to what other films have/will do in 2011.

Also I'm a big one for the quality of the movie, over box office returns. Fast 5 and Pirates are going to end up grossing more than Thor, but there's no question which is the better movie of the three.

utterly ridiculous... transformers can have 0% on rotten tomatoes and will still cross 300 million... its minimum is at about 325... its probably the only movie that has legit 3D and people will def watch it in 3D.... Bay may make trash but he knows how to film action... and people know exactly what they are getting in TF3.. hot women, great action and great CGI...

and no, you don't just label something blockbuster because other films under perform...

 

[hatebox]

In 2011 terms Thor might as well be a massive hit. The only movies that have a chance of topping 300 million this summer are Harry Potter and Transformers. After the piece of crap that was TF2, Transformers has got to have phenomenal reviews or it may not pass 300. .

I hate Transformers, but the question is whether it'll hit 400m domestic, not 300m. It'll be huge, unfortunately.

 

[Diamondhead]

it already made more money than hulk and fantastic four, wow !
more respect for thor now !
now the Question is one of them superheroes movie is bound to fail at the box office this year ,which one ?
I know they are ruining green lantern by proclaiming "him" as the sexiest man alive
and they take the torch to play captain america
Xmen first class is a bunch of "newcomers" but it looks good
i'll let you figure it out .
I know they've riun it for me by showing that "wedgy thing" too much in the commercial for megamind
I was so anxious to see the movie and after seeing that wedgy again and again it simply turns me off and i still haven't seen megaming yet .

 

[CaptainCraig]

Map it again. It's more likely to be at $182m in the next 18 days with plenty of gas left in its theatrical run. Check this mapping.

You're projections are very optimistic though. Especially with the level of direct competition it's going to continue to face for at least the next 5 weeks in a row(a big film coming out every week and sucking up screens which Thor will lose). I specifically said I used IM2's legs from here on out. Those were mediocre and I thought that though Thor had shown better legs initially, it's higher competition than IM2 faced mitigated that factor. I don't think Thor will %-wise perform worse than IM2 at this point so it seemed a reasonable comparison.

It's all a guessing game to be sure. I'm of the opinion that IM2, as a sequel, isn't the best comparison. IM1 for duration and as a franchise starter is what I'm leaning towards with the 100+ days in release(more than IM2's 105 days) that would allow it to crawl to $200m.
I've considered the next several weeks in my projection and regardless of the films it's already established it's weekday/weekend patterns at this point. Those aren't likely to fluctuately wildly at this point. I'm calling for it to be at $165m by Thursday and with the Tuesday actuals coming in giving THOR a new domestic total of $163.2m it's going to be pushing right up against my projection. Thor should be able to do about $700K +/- on Wed and again as much on Thursday at worst.

Captain Craig, I liked your mapping, however I think the estimates on the week day grosses are probably a little too high. I think the movie could do another $30 million or so, but it just depends on how much Disney and Paramount want to push it in one of the bloodiest summers ever. I think they should because $200 million domestic for Thor and $500 million worldwide looks really good at trade shows and in the history books and it shows that characters like Thor can be big movie characters. Thor has always been a big milestone character but in the last few decades he's been a pretty minor character in the public eye. Movie has changed that now just like with Iron Man.

I did shoot a tad high at times, no lie. I'm likely to be off just marginally but I don't think they are crazy optimistic. Disney has been pushing Tangled for months now. Despite being on DVD for a month it's still in a few $1 theaters and has just crossed the $200m mark theatrically. So if Disney has any say over it's theater run, it has that chance at $200m. Paramount though has shown patience with films that attain "hit" status so we may yet see Thor crawl there.

 

[kedrell]

Well Thor did $850K on Tuesday which is $100K better than I expected. We'll still have to see if it keeps this up but if it can do this much better than IM2's %-drops then it could end up with $190M instead of my last projection of $182M.

 

[Spider-Vader]

utterly ridiculous... transformers can have 0% on rotten tomatoes and will still cross 300 million... its minimum is at about 325... its probably the only movie that has legit 3D and people will def watch it in 3D.... Bay may make trash but he knows how to film action... and people know exactly what they are getting in TF3.. hot women, great action and great CGI...

and no, you don't just label something blockbuster because other films under perform...

Great action? Transformers 2 was boring as hell! Now Transformers 1 had some cool action scenes, but not TF2. Bay better atleast get that right in TF3.

 

[Tony Stark]

utterly ridiculous... transformers can have 0% on rotten tomatoes and will still cross 300 million... its minimum is at about 325... its probably the only movie that has legit 3D and people will def watch it in 3D.... Bay may make trash but he knows how to film action... and people know exactly what they are getting in TF3.. hot women, great action and great CGI...

and no, you don't just label something blockbuster because other films under perform...

If it's a stupid and assinine as the last one, I sure as hell won't watch it in 3D or at all. Even Shia LeBeouf said the 2nd one was **** on film.

Now if they learned their mistakes, it will be a big hit, no doubt and likely the biggest of the year. I never underestimate Michael Bay's ability to screw up a movie though.

 

[Evil Twin]

Thor's a success, but let's not go overboard calling it a massive hit. At a minimum, it's going to finish behind Fast Five, PotC, Hangover 2, Cars 2, Transformers, and Harry Potter at the summer box office domestically. There's a couple of films out or coming out that could potentially knock it down farther in the pecking order, Captain America, X-Men, possibly Kung Fu Panda if it has legs, and maybe a couple of others.

Just call it a success with no adjectives.