Thor's box office competition - Part 1

[kedrell]

It'll end up being as big a hit as X3 was WW. And don't say "but you have to adjust for inflation so X3 made more" because you'd also have to adjust X3's budget and even without adjustment, X3 cost massively more than Thor did and will w/o a doubt end up the less profitable of the two.

 

[moe]

If it's a stupid and assinine as the last one, I sure as hell won't watch it in 3D or at all. Even Shia LeBeouf said the 2nd one was **** on film.

Now if they learned their mistakes, it will be a big hit, no doubt and likely the biggest of the year. I never underestimate Michael Bay's ability to screw up a movie though.

thats the thing, it doesn't matter how stupid it is... its going to make more than 300 million... there is no doubt... its going to open well past 140 million... maybe even beat TDK's OW.. and from there, if it collapses like even the twilight movies... its going to pass 300 million.

 

[kedrell]

I agree. If the TF movies have taught us anything, it's that it's audience simply doesn't care if they're good movies or not. All they want to see is hot chicks, and stuff blow up.

 

[El Payaso]

I agree. If the TF movies have taught us anything, it's that it's audience simply doesn't care if they're good movies or not. All they want to see is hot chicks, and stuff blow up.

Which in not quite different from action movies' audience or, say, superhero movies'.

 

[kedrell]

Which in not quite different from action movies' audience or, say, superhero movies'.

Actually, it is quite different. SH films that do the TF thing w/o any good story/good acting/etc. get panned by the fans. XMO:W is the perfect example of a SH film done TF style. It's brainless.

 

[Tony Stark]

thats the thing, it doesn't matter how stupid it is... its going to make more than 300 million... there is no doubt... its going to open well past 140 million... maybe even beat TDK's OW.. and from there, if it collapses like even the twilight movies... its going to pass 300 million.

I don't know what you're arguing about. I originally said there were only two movies this summer capable of breaking 300 million and I named TF and and HP7.

However, I said if the reviews are bad for TF3, that it could underperform, because people weren't going to put up with the crap that was in the second one, considering it's monumental collapse after the opening weekend.

If you think that RT reviews being in single digits for the film is going to still guarantee it at 300 mil? I can't agree with that. Even the people that rushed to the theaters to see the second one hated it. it's probably the most hated high grossing movie put to film, even more than Spider-man 3 which was panned by the fans.

So I'm not going to call a **** film a "blockbuster" just because it made alot of money. Star Trek made a little more than half as much as TF2 in the same summer, but Star Trek was a superior film in every possible way, so I'll call Star Trek a "blockbuster"

Quality has to count for something. Money is important, but it can't be the only factor.

 

[Raiden]

It'll end up being as big a hit as X3 was WW. And don't say "but you have to adjust for inflation so X3 made more" because you'd also have to adjust X3's budget and even without adjustment, X3 cost massively more than Thor did and will w/o a doubt end up the less profitable of the two.

Not to mention that X3 has had a great buildup thanks to the cliffhanger ending in X2 (arguably one of the best superhero movies in history), and even without Singer the movie had a huge hype and expectation from just about everyone. The movie turned out to be a turd, but in terms of advantage & brand recognition X3 had it way better than Thor, and we should take that into account.

 

[sgaana]

However, I said if the reviews are bad for TF3, that it could underperform, because people weren't going to put up with the crap that was in the second one, considering it's monumental collapse after the opening weekend.

If you think that RT reviews being in single digits for the film is going to still guarantee it at 300 mil? I can't agree with that. Even the people that rushed to the theaters to see the second one hated it. it's probably the most hated high grossing movie put to film, even more than Spider-man 3 which was panned by the fans.

But... TF2 had that huge collapse after its opening weekend, and got a fair bit of bad WOM... and still finished with over $400 million domestic. It's got a 20% RT rating, but a 76% audience rating on the same site. (As an interesting comparison, SM3 had the higher RT rating at 63%, but lower audience rating at 54%. I'd LOVE to know whether TF2's negative audience rating is more vitriolic than SM3's, though.)

So even if TF3 gets reviews and some WOM as bad as TF2... it doesn't seem like even that can sink it.

 

[CaptainCraig]

I'm calling for it to be at $165m by Thursday and with the Tuesday actuals coming in giving THOR a new domestic total of $163.2m it's going to be pushing right up against my projection. Thor should be able to do about $700K +/- on Wed and again as much on Thursday at worst.

So far so good.

For those still curious THOR made on the high end of my predict for Wed totals by hauling in another $772K and it's domestic total is now just over $164m.

 

[BigThor]

no. its not. its a hit.

What's the difference?

It'll end up being as big a hit as X3 was WW. And don't say "but you have to adjust for inflation so X3 made more" because you'd also have to adjust X3's budget and even without adjustment, X3 cost massively more than Thor did and will w/o a doubt end up the less profitable of the two.

Very true, I HATE when people use inflation as an excuse as to why a movie made more money than a past film.

 

[hatebox]

Very true, I HATE when people use inflation as an excuse as to why a movie made more money than a past film.

Well, sometimes it's undoubtedly the case.

 

[Visceral]

the audience is kinda bombarded by superheroes this summer. Its possible that there will be no clear winner between them.

 

[Tony Stark]

the audience is kinda bombarded by superheroes this summer. Its possible that there will be no clear winner between them.

Very true. FC is predicted to take in 69M over the weekend, which is not much more than Thor, and with GL around the corner it gets even more crouded.

I hope they all do decent though, because it will bode well for more films. But you have to take 2011 in account as a whole. The cinema has been doing crap, so Thor did very will in that market, as I'm sure XFC will do this weekend.

 

[kedrell]

Very true. FC is predicted to take in 69M over the weekend, which is not much more than Thor, and with GL around the corner it gets even more crouded.

I hope they all do decent though, because it will bode well for more films. But you have to take 2011 in account as a whole. The cinema has been doing crap, so Thor did very will in that market, as I'm sure XFC will do this weekend.

Not to mention Super 8 even before that, which targets pretty much the same audience.

 

[kedrell]

Well it did $808K on Thursday bringing it's 4 week total to $164,872,904. Should do $4.5M over the weekend, give or take $500K. Probably will cross $170M on Tuesday or Wednesday. When they count the latest OS figures it'll be probably at an even $420M WW as of now.

 

[marcvader]

That's great.

 

[CaptainCraig]

Well it did $808K on Thursday bringing it's 4 week total to $164,872,904. Should do $4.5M over the weekend, give or take $500K. Probably will cross $170M on Tuesday or Wednesday. When they count the latest OS figures it'll be probably at an even $420M WW as of now.

My mapping still looking too optimistic? I'm thinking more like $5m - $5.5m now though, still enough for $170m.
Cause your basically agreeing with me now.

I noticed some poster had a very pessimistic or low ball sig of "$170m by the then of July" That guy has to feel good or puzzled one.

 

[kedrell]

With XMFC being direct competition, I'd still say yes you're too optimistic(mostly in the weekday-to-weekday drops from one week to another). It did still miss $165M by this point. Not that I'll be unhappy if you're right but I prefer to keep my expectations more modest. The movie deserves all it can make.

 

[Mysteryman]

Very true. FC is predicted to take in 69M over the weekend, which is not much more than Thor, and with GL around the corner it gets even more crouded.

I hope they all do decent though, because it will bode well for more films. But you have to take 2011 in account as a whole. The cinema has been doing crap, so Thor did very will in that market, as I'm sure XFC will do this weekend.

where did the $69 million prediction for FC come from?

 

[Spider-Fan]

I have seen predictions of 60 mil for FC. I have not seen anyone saying 69.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

It came from Boxoffice.com

 

[Evil Twin]

Deadline is reporting $1.3 million for Thor on Friday with a projected weekend of $4.5 million for Thor. Which averages out to something like $1600 to $1700 per screen which is perfectly reasonable at this stage.

So, yeah, the mapping was a bit too optimistic.

I'm going to estimate a 2.8 OW multiplier now and a $184 million final domestic total.

 

[Docker2.0]

Not me Evil! I'm sticking to my guns!! I'm saying $200M or bust! Actually I'm thinking/hoping that Cap will give it some extra juice. The movies are tied together so maybe(fingers crossed)it'll pump something back into it. I can see this movie making another $15M by the end of June alone. Just saying I'm not writing it off just yet.

 

[rashad]

$200 mil ain't happening.

 

[kedrell]

Making it into the 170M domestic range alone would be excellent. And this is doing $180's for sure. It's highly probable that the sequel could do well into the 200M range, maybe even high 200M's like $275M or so if the quality is there. Fret not, I say.