Thor's box office competition - Part 1

[Spider-Fan]

It had a huge drop from Friday of last week to yesterday. One that was percentage wise larger than TIH's. Not a great movie to be drawing comparisons with.

Thor has already outgrossed TIH's WW gross. It's a bad comparison.

 

[Chewy]

I'm not trying to nitpick, or be like a brick wall. I just don't want another TIH situation where people are flabbergasted because the worldwide total exceeds the budget, but it still didn't get a sequel.

This is going to make 200M more than TIH on the same budget.

It's doing slightly better domestically than Clash of the Titans last year. Titans finished with $163 million domestic so I expect Thor to finish between $165 to $175 million. Thor however won't be able to touch Titans $330 million foreign gross. It will probably top out at around $250 million max.

I think $275 is the minimum it will end up with overseas. Probably closer to 290.

 

[Chewy]

It had a huge drop from Friday of last week to yesterday. One that was percentage wise larger than TIH's. Not a great movie to be drawing comparisons with.

It is a softer drop than both TIH and IM2 had percentage wise.

 

[Spider-Fan]

The Incredible Hulk:

Domestic: $134,806,913 51.2%
+ Foreign: $128,620,638 48.8%
= Worldwide: $263,427,551

Thor:

Domestic: $93,852,000 32.1%
+ Foreign: $198,415,148 67.9%
= Worldwide: $292,267,148

Thor has already beat TIH in just over a week US release and 2 weeks max elsewhere (on the same budget). No real comparison.

 

[BigThor]

It's doing slightly better domestically than Clash of the Titans last year. Titans finished with $163 million domestic so I expect Thor to finish between $165 to $175 million. Thor however won't be able to touch Titans $330 million foreign gross. It will probably top out at around $250 million max.

Eh, I think it's gonna be closer to being in between $185 to $200 million domestically, with an international gross of about $285 to $295.

 

[kedrell]

It's quite likely to equal or exceed X3(highest grossing film of the X-Men franchise) world wide(unadjusted). Should just about do the exact same amount domestic as XO:W did but with nearly 100M more overseas. Not bad for a 1st timer, as I said. If the sequel exceeds it's gross then Thor officially outranks the X-men(at least in theatrical success). Who would've thought that was even possible? X-Men didn't even need such success to spawn a 5 film(so far) franchise.

 

[dark_b]

This is going to make 200M more than TIH on the same budget.
.

there is no way that Thor 3 years later had the same budget as TIH. no way. Thor was a bigger movie.

plus Thor had a bigger marketing budget.


not that it matters. Thor was an entertaining summer movie. sequel yes. Avengers no.

 

[Spider-Fan]

there is no way that Thor 3 years later had the same budget as TIH. no way. Thor was a bigger movie.

plus Thor had a bigger marketing budget.


not that it matters. Thor was an entertaining summer movie. sequel yes. Avengers no.

Look on the Box Office Mojo listing here...says Thor cost 150 million dollars.

http://boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=thor.htm

Now, look at The Incredible Hulk's page on Box Office Mojo...budget is listed at 150 million:

http://boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=incrediblehulk.htm

Even if these figures are wrong, they wouldn't be very off.

 

[flickchick85]

That drop isn't too bad. I still think it will finish out the weekend with about $28-29 million, which should hopefully send it well on its way to $170 million domestic. That, coupled with its great WW numbers, would ensure a sequel no problem.

 

[DACrowe]

Um dude, you don't know what you're talking about. IM1 had a 49% drop, The Dark Knight had a 52% drop after the first week. Thor will be right in the middle.

Superhero films are notoriously front loaded. SM1 was probably the lone acception.

The difference is IM1 opened to $100 million and TDK opened to $150+ million.

But I don't think it will hurt Thor too much. It is an investment and if it does well on DVD and The Avengers is the big hit it likely is to be, Marvel is banking on awareness and excitement for another Thor movie will be up. So, I too think Thor 2 will happen. It didn't flat out fail like TIH did. It's doing "O.K." but as part of a giant marketing pyramid, "O.K." is enough to lay the groundwork for bigger profits down the road.

And yes, SM1's legs were awesome.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

It's actually made a profit already. Including spending, it was expected that Marvel spent around $220 million to $250 million (including marketing and advertising) on Thor.

 

[Spider-Vader]

I don't think we have to worry about a sequel. The film is a success both box office wise & critically.

 

[Sabaoth]

It's doing slightly better domestically than Clash of the Titans last year. Titans finished with $163 million domestic so I expect Thor to finish between $165 to $175 million. Thor however won't be able to touch Titans $330 million foreign gross. It will probably top out at around $250 million max.

Note that Clash of the Titans cost $125 mil to make and took in $163 domestically .
I think Thor needs to hit at least $170 mil domestically.....

 

[Sabaoth]

Does anyone here know how to calculate foreign gross in relation to domestic gross?

I've often heard that only 1/4 of the foreign gross counts toward the final number used to calculate a movies profit.

I don't know if that's completely accurate but if it is then $200mil foreign = $50 mil

Based on what I've seen over the years,
If Thor takes in $170 domestic and hauls in another $200 of foreign gross, I think we are in the clear, as far as a sequel is concerned.

I think the bare minimum for a sequel would be $151 mil domestically regardless of foreign take....so Incredible Hulk numbers (only $135 domestic take) won't cut it.

I've never seen a movie get a sequel with whose domestic gross did not surpass it's budget (Narnia 2 being the only exception I am aware of, and that was because a different studio took it on and gambled...)

Any thoughts?

 

[Tony Stark]

Look on the Box Office Mojo listing here...says Thor cost 150 million dollars.

http://boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=thor.htm

Now, look at The Incredible Hulk's page on Box Office Mojo...budget is listed at 150 million:

http://boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=incrediblehulk.htm

Even if these figures are wrong, they wouldn't be very off.

Also inflation works both ways, so technically TIH had a larger budget.

 

[Tony Stark]

It is a softer drop than both TIH and IM2 had percentage wise.

It's also a much softer drop than Fast Five.

 

[Marvel]

Also inflation works both ways, so technically TIH had a larger budget.

But TIH had a great tax rebate incentive on it's side. I'm sure Thor had something similar.

http://www.deadline.com/2008/07/iro...rnator-to-try-again-for-hollywood-tax-breaks/

"Marvel got an 8-figure rebate check on The Incredible Hulk which was shot in Canada"

New Mexico gives great tax incentives. Michigan was doing the same until the dipwad governor killed it and jobs. Avengers was all set to shoot in Michigan to take advantage. Now they're in Ohio/New Mexico. Thor should be getting a rebate and that only lends to the bottom line but doesn't show up in the stats. That 10 million the Hulk got was issued after the fact. Michigan was paying 40% back. So, if a studio spent 10 million of the budget in Michigan, they'd get a check for 4 million back at a later date.

All this is a factor when talking about a sequel. Every day that goes by looks better and better for Thor.

 

[Tony Stark]

But TIH had a great tax rebate incentive on it's side. I'm sure Thor had something similar.

http://www.deadline.com/2008/07/iro...rnator-to-try-again-for-hollywood-tax-breaks/

"Marvel got an 8-figure rebate check on The Incredible Hulk which was shot in Canada"

New Mexico gives great tax incentives. Michigan was doing the same until the dipwad governor killed it and jobs. Avengers was all set to shoot in Michigan to take advantage. Now they're in Ohio/New Mexico. Thor should be getting a rebate and that only lends to the bottom line but doesn't show up in the stats. That 10 million the Hulk got was issued after the fact. Michigan was paying 40% back. So, if a studio spent 10 million of the budget in Michigan, they'd get a check for 4 million back at a later date.

All this is a factor when talking about a sequel. Every day that goes by looks better and better for Thor.

It's funny that you brought that up because there was something in the credits that I caught that was bolded, and said something about French tax rebate for international production. Struk me as odd, because I don't recall ever seeing that in credits for a movie before.

 

[Microchip]

Did it say Telefilm? That's the company that does the rebates (or something to that effect) in Canada, so most/any productions in Canada (like Smallville, Supernatural, etc) always seem to have it in their credits. I didn't know they did it for movies as well.

 

[hatebox]

Deadline's suggesting Thor's weekend may be 34m. I'm skeptical that the number could suddenly go that high, so I'll wait for actuals tomorrow. Very nice if so, of course.

 

[BigThor]

Deadline's suggesting Thor's weekend may be 34m. I'm skeptical that the number could suddenly go that high, so I'll wait for actuals tomorrow. Very nice if so, of course.

Well it was predicted that it was going to be 32m after Friday's numbers were in, so 34m really isn't all that big of a jump.

Oh and I almost forgot, 34 million would be awesome!!!

The difference is IM1 opened to $100 million and TDK opened to $150+ million.

But I don't think it will hurt Thor too much. It is an investment and if it does well on DVD and The Avengers is the big hit it likely is to be, Marvel is banking on awareness and excitement for another Thor movie will be up. So, I too think Thor 2 will happen. It didn't flat out fail like TIH did. It's doing "O.K." but as part of a giant marketing pyramid, "O.K." is enough to lay the groundwork for bigger profits down the road.

I think saying Thor is doing "ok" is a bit of an understatement, Batman Begins and Fantastic Four did "ok", I would say Thor is actually doing pretty good.

 

[hatebox]

Well it was predicted that it was going to be 32m after Friday's numbers were in, so 34m really isn't all that big of a jump.

Oh and I almost forgot, 34 million would be awesome!!!



I think saying Thor is doing "ok" is a bit of an understatement, Batman Begins and Fantastic Four did "ok", I would say Thor is actually doing pretty good.

It's more because pretty much the entire top 10 seem to have unprecedented Friday to Saturday jumps, and she's been overestimating a lot recently. It could be accurate, but I'll still wait for actuals. I'm expecting about 32-33m.

 

[hatebox]

I think saying Thor is doing "ok" is a bit of an understatement, Batman Begins and Fantastic Four did "ok", I would say Thor is actually doing pretty good.

Given 3D and inflation, Begins could still end up having a higher attendance figure than Thor. I'm not saying Begins did amazing, just that it can often be hard to legitimately compare comic book moviesgiven all the variables.

 

[BigThor]

Given 3D and inflation, Begins could still end up having a higher attendance figure than Thor. I'm not saying Begins did amazing, just that it can often be hard to legitimately compare comic book moviesgiven all the variables.

Very true, but as some said earlier, the extra cash from inflation and 3D is just like any other money in the eyes of studio execs.

It's more because pretty much the entire top 10 seem to have unprecedented Friday to Saturday jumps, and she's been overestimating a lot recently. It could be accurate, but I'll still wait for actuals. I'm expecting about 32-33m.

Gotcha, but even 32-33m would be pretty good in my opinion, it would still be 49-51% percent drop.

 

[KangConquers]

Very true, but as some said earlier, the extra cash from inflation and 3D is just like any other money in the eyes of studio execs.



Gotcha, but even 32-33m would be pretty good in my opinion, it would still be 49-51% percent drop.

If Thor does anything above 26 million, it'll be fantastic.

My worries came from the 9.1 million Friday seeming to indicate a 23 million dollar weekend. If Friday was just inexplicably low, then it's fine.