Thor's box office competition - Part 1

[BigThor]

BOM is predicting $29 million this weekend, which would be a 56% percent drop from last weekend. That would still be pretty solid, imo. If it's anywhere between BOM's $29m and BoxOffice.com's $33m predictions, I think the movie will be in very good shape.

*crosses fingers for $33m*

 

[J.Howlett]

Considering how packed it was last night at my 9:30 digital screening, it wouldn't shock me if it hit 33 or 34 million this weekend. I was kind of stunned that that many people were there for the second Friday.

 

[BigThor]

^^^ Cool, I saw Thor for 3rd time yesterday and the theater was pretty packed, not to mention that it was sold out when I went to see it last Friday (snuck in).

 

[rashad]

1. Thor 3D (Marvel/Disney/Paramount) Week 2 [3,963 Theaters] Friday $9.2M (-64%), Estimated Weekend $32M, Estimated Cume $112M
2. Bridesmaids (Universal) NEW [2,918 Theaters] Friday $8M, Estimated Weekend $22M
3. Fast Five (Universal) Week 3 [3,793 Theaters] Friday $5.9M, Estimated Weekend $18M, Estimated Cume $167.2M
4. Priest 3D (Screen Gems/Sony) NEW [2,864 Theaters] Friday $5.5M, Estimated Weekend $14M
http://www.deadline.com/hollywood/

 

[marcvader]

Coul

 

[BigThor]

1. Thor 3D (Marvel/Disney/Paramount) Week 2 [3,963 Theaters] Friday $9.2M (-64%), Estimated Weekend $32M, Estimated Cume $112M
2. Bridesmaids (Universal) NEW [2,918 Theaters] Friday $8M, Estimated Weekend $22M
3. Fast Five (Universal) Week 3 [3,793 Theaters] Friday $5.9M, Estimated Weekend $18M, Estimated Cume $167.2M 4.
Priest 3D (Screen Gems/Sony) NEW [2,864 Theaters] Friday $5.5M, Estimated Weekend $14M
http://www.deadline.com/hollywood/

Cool, Thor's that much closer to the $33-35M that I hoped for .

 

[rashad]

Thor - $30M It might go down to $29M with actuals.

FRI BO: #Thor $9.1M/$30M wknd, #Bridesmaids $7.8M/$22M, FastFive $5.9M/$18M, #Priest $5.6M/$14M, Borrowed $2.3M/$7M.
http://***********/#!/giteshpandya/status/69422619904061440

 

[Chewy]

It could go down or up with actuals as the Saturday and Sunday numbers are nothing more than assumptions at this point.

 

[hatebox]

Anything less than 30m would definitely be a disappointment - this is the weekend it really needs to make a lot of money before Pirates kicks in.

 

[Arach Knight]

You feeling brave sir?

I'm not being sarcastic at all. The movie is getting good reviews from audiences and everyone wants to see it

1. Priest- 50 mill
2. Thor- 30 mill

It'll happen it's physics. It's inevitable.

I admire your willingness to stick with the gag. The film grossed $5 million on its opening night, which is the total it grossed over its opening weekend in foreign markets (it was released everywhere but North America, prior to yesterday's North American release). Because the film budget was so low ($60 million) there is a slight chance that it will at least break even, but I am even doubtful about that. This film will have a huge drop off next weekend when it has to compete with both Thor and Pirates, which will be the major box office draws, while romcoms round out the rest of the top five.

 

[kedrell]

With a 9M friday I don't think my $35M 2nd weekend hopes are going to happen. $30M is very much still in play with maybe a 13M saturday and an 8M sunday. Maybe even as high as 32M(kinda wishful thinking...fingers crossed) but $35M is gone and with it my hopes that this might squeak to a $200M domestic finish.If this had done $11M on friday then a $35M weekend could be achieved. $175M give or take $10M is where I think it'll end up. Now there is the slim possibility that Thor's friday # was unusually hampered by Bridesmaids and that it may rebound beyond our expectations on saturday...but such a thing can't really be forseen so we'll just have to wait and find out. I doubt it though. Anyway, with as well as Thor's doing overseas, that's still a pretty good domestic total for an unknown first timer. I think Cap & X-Men FC will both exceed $200M domestic as they're easier sells here. GL at this point I'm guessing is gonna do Thor numbers at best(like Thor, it's a way out there concept that isn't as easy to sell). It'll be a horse race between the two(domestically speaking). Internationally, Thor wins. World wide, Thor likely still wins(unless Ryan Reynolds popularity is much bigger than I think it is). I don't think any of the other 3 superhero films this year are going to beat Thor's overseas gross. Thor's kinda like Spider-man in that the two are the only superheroes(so far) who's foreign take beats their domestic one. If you think about it, it makes total sense that Thor would do this.

 

[Rock Sexton]

Honestly shocked at Friday's #'s ......

 

[rashad]

Honestly shocked at Friday's #'s ......

How so?

 

[Sabaoth]

I did not expect such a Friday drop.
The numbers are not great though it still made nearly 3mil more than the Incredible Hulk did on its eight day.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/showdowns/chart/?view=daily&id=avengersassemble.htm

The WOM apparently did not kick in and a certain Pirate looms in the horizon..not good.
Thor needs to succeed otherwise it could have a negative impact on the direction of future superhero films such as the Avengers & The Man of Steel.
A successful Thor= more magic and fantasy in future comic movies.
If Thor fails (<$170mil dom)= they will continue to attempt to strive for "realism" in comic book movies.
I loved Thor and want Thor to be the harbinger of a new era of comic book films....
but apparently, it ain't looking too good.

 

[J.Howlett]

It's not really doom and gloom when you think how much it's made internationally already and the fact that we still have the cable rights and DVD/Blu Ray sales. It's gonna make enough money to warrant a sequel.

It'll probably land somewhere around 175 million domestically. Still, I think it'll have a 500 million dollar worldwide box office, which would kind of be outstanding for this character.

 

[WildcatNC]

It's not really doom and gloom when you think how much it's made internationally already and the fact that we still have the cable rights and DVD/Blu Ray sales. It's gonna make enough money to warrant a sequel.

It'll probably land somewhere around 175 million domestically. Still, I think it'll have a 500 million dollar worldwide box office, which would kind of be outstanding for this character.

Yea, its pretty much already got its sequel greenlit.

 

[Docker2.0]

After this weekend, Thor will pretty much be at $110M Domestically. I think by this time next month, it will be at $175M. It's going to make $30M this weekend and $20M next weekend. If you count $2M a day for the next 2 weeks, it should be at around $160M. It's going to reach $200M Dom but it's just going to drag getting there.

 

[kedrell]

I think it could be at $115M by weekends end. I was hoping for $120M but that ain't happening unless we get a super big jump today and it clears $35M for the weekend.

 

[Chewy]

It's not doom and gloom, at least it shouldn't be. This is a fine performance. I don't know how people will react when the other superhero films come out this summer if this is viewed as a bad performance.

I think this is going to be #2 domestically and #1 worldwide of the four.

 

[kedrell]

I think #3 domestic and #1 foreign. WW? Good shot at #1 but I don't want to count X-M:FC out just yet.

 

[kedrell]

OW - 65.7M
After dailies: 84.7M
2nd weekend: 115M
after dailies: 124M
3rd weekend: 140M
after dailies: 145M
4th weekend: 155M(Memorial Day)
after dailies: 157.5M
5th weekend: 162.5M
after dailies: 164M
6th weekend: 167M
after dailies: 168M
7th weekend: 170M

Probably top out around 180M or less.

 

[KangConquers]

This drop is very bad for Thor. My prediction for domestic gross is going down to 160 million dollars domestic.


Thor 2 is looking less and less likely daily.

 

[Marvel]

It's not doom and gloom, at least it shouldn't be. This is a fine performance. I don't know how people will react when the other superhero films come out this summer if this is viewed as a bad performance.

I think this is going to be #2 domestically and #1 worldwide of the four.

Domestically, both Cap and First Class will top Thor. Of that I have little doubt at this point.

Paid to see Thor again today because I felt the need to do my part. Can't stomach the thought of Bridesmaids winning the weekend.

 

[kedrell]

This drop is very bad for Thor. My prediction for domestic gross is going down to 160 million dollars domestic.


Thor 2 is looking less and less likely daily.

Thor 2 is locked. Take it to the bank. And it would need weaker legs to end up at 160M. Not that it has the greatest legs but 160M is less than a 2.5X multiplier and I have little doubt Thor gets that much of one.

 

[Marvel]

As fun as it is to talk about BO numbers....they are almost irrelevant now. At last count (2007) the studios were only making 20% of their profit from theater revenue.

http://www.edwardjayepstein.com/MPA2007.htm

If a movie really had to make double its budget to be a success, there wouldn't be many movies being made.

Basically, Thor is going to make a gigantic pile of money for Marvel.

Still, the box office clears the ledger making what follows nearly pure profit. What a lot of people need to remember is that the studio's split during the first two weeks of release is around 80/20 depending on the distribution deal. So, Marvel gets 80% of that box office total turned over to them. The longer the film plays, the more the percentages switch. So, front loaded films really benefit studios.

I agree that Thoris going to make a gigantic pile of money for Marvel.