Thor's box office competition - Part 1

[Chewy]

Domestically, both Cap and First Class will top Thor. Of that I have little doubt at this point.

I wouldn't be too sure. It's not impossible but it certainly is not locked.

 

[kedrell]

Domestically, both Cap and First Class will top Thor. Of that I have little doubt at this point.

That's what I think. By how much is the bigger question.

Paid to see Thor again today because I felt the need to do my part. Can't stomach the thought of Bridesmaids winning the weekend.

It won't.

 

[Chewy]

This drop is very bad for Thor. My prediction for domestic gross is going down to 160 million dollars domestic.


Thor 2 is looking less and less likely daily.

50% drop is very bad?

Thor 2 is a lock.

 

[Pfeiffer-Pfan]

Surely being number 1 two weeks in a row... AND its huge success overseas should secure it a sequel anyway?

Not to mention DVD/Blu-Ray sales... Since when did everyone start hitting the panic button?

 

[Chewy]

Surely being number 1 two weeks in a row... AND its huge success overseas should secure it a sequel anyway?

Not to mention DVD/Blu-Ray sales... Since when did everyone start hitting the panic button?

It is, not sure why people have decided it isn't.

This is the most a superhero movie has made overseas that wasn't TDK or a Spidey or Iron Man movie.

 

[kedrell]

If it's 30M then it's a 54% drop. Still respectable for a blockbuster on it's 2nd weekend and likely the highest weekend to weekend drop of it's entire run(except maybe the weekend after Memorial Day due to the previous weekend's inflated gross).

 

[KangConquers]

Still, the box office clears the ledger making what follows nearly pure profit. What a lot of people need to remember is that the studio's split during the first two weeks of release is around 80/20 depending on the distribution deal. So, Marvel gets 80% of that box office total turned over to them. The longer the film plays, the more the percentages switch. So, front loaded films really benefit studios.

I agree that Thoris going to make a gigantic pile of money for Marvel.

But they only get 80% of the 55% of the ticket price.

So if Thor grosses 400 million, they only get 80% of 220 million. That's 176 million dollars, which once you figure in marketing, is less than the movie cost them. So Marvel would still be in the red 30-50 million.

 

[Chewy]

But they only get 80% of the 55% of the ticket price.

What?

 

[JeetKuneDo]

But they only get 80% of the 55% of the ticket price.

So if Thor grosses 400 million, they only get 80% of 220 million. That's 176 million dollars, which once you figure in marketing, is less than the movie cost them. So Marvel would still be in the red 30-50 million.

And that 176 million is only 20% of the money they will make from Thor.

http://www.edwardjayepstein.com/MPA2007.htm

Thor is going to be a huge cash cow.

 

[Chewy]

The 55% is an outdated figure that is no longer relevant. In the days when films had legs, that's usually the average percentage of the gross that studios ended up getting. But studios get a much, much larger cut of the gross on opening weekend which diminishes as time goes on, so these days with films having huge openings and no legs to speak of the 55% is not close to accurate. And if you want to factor in marketing costs, you must also factor in product placement deals and merchandising.

KangConquers, if your figures and math were even close to correct studios would *never* make movies that cost $150 million. I hope you realize that.

 

[KangConquers]

The 55% is an outdated figure that is no longer relevant. In the days when films had legs, that's usually the average percentage of the gross that studios ended up getting. But studios get a much, much larger cut of the gross on opening weekend which diminishes as time goes on, so these days with films having huge openings and no legs to speak of the 55% is not close to accurate. And if you want to factor in marketing costs, you must also factor in product placement deals and merchandising.

KangConquers, if your figures and math were even close to correct studios would *never* make movies that cost $150 million. I hope you realize that.

Can you provide alternatives with solid information?

 

[hatebox]

The funny thing is that once you get over the pleasant surprise of Thor's performance not being a disaster, it's performing almost precisely within expectations - no more no less. Which fine, because that means a sequel.

 

[Chewy]

Can you provide alternatives with solid information?

Alternatives to what?

 

[KangConquers]

Alternatives to what?

Tried and true studio information? Almost every studio exec etc will tell you a movie has to make 2.5 times it's gross in order to start making a profit. This isn't some figure I pulled out of my ass...it's pretty established.

What I'm asking is can you provide cited proof that contradicts that information?

 

[Chewy]

Can you provide links to studio execs telling you a movie has to make 2.5 times its budget?

I know you didn't pull it out of your ass... what I'm telling you is it is no longer a relevant figure.

And even if your figure were correct, Thor is going to make 2.5 times its budget.

 

[KangConquers]

Can you provide links to studio execs telling you a movie has to make 2.5 times its budget?

I know you didn't pull it out of your ass... what I'm telling you is it is no longer a relevant figure.

And even if your figure were correct, Thor is going to make 2.5 times its budget.

And will the studio decide it's worth the monumental effort and investment to make less than a 10% profit on a sequel?

 

[Chewy]

Clearly there is no point discussing this with you. It is like talking to a brick wall.

 

[Pfeiffer-Pfan]

You seem to be nitpicking at all this ''KangConquers''...

Thor is performing right within expectations... nearly $300 million dollar worldwide and counting is great for such an unknown property.

And one without the inherent appeal of a charaacter like Tony Stark.

I have every faith this will get a sequel... they may monitor the budget more to acheive a greater domestoc return, but I think the studio will be happy.

It will be the sequel which determines whether they have a sustainable franchise here.

 

[Spider-Fan]

Tried and true studio information? Almost every studio exec etc will tell you a movie has to make 2.5 times it's gross in order to start making a profit. This isn't some figure I pulled out of my ass...it's pretty established.

What I'm asking is can you provide cited proof that contradicts that information?

Not domestically. WW, maybe. And, the 400 WW Thor is going to make is going to be pretty much just that much.

Mission accomplished.

 

[Doctor Jones]

I'm still iffy on what FC will make. I think it will gross least. Unless WOM saves it. But I do think it will make as much, if not a bit less than the others.

 

[superion]

It's doing slightly better domestically than Clash of the Titans last year. Titans finished with $163 million domestic so I expect Thor to finish between $165 to $175 million. Thor however won't be able to touch Titans $330 million foreign gross. It will probably top out at around $250 million max.

 

[Tony Stark]

This drop is very bad for Thor. My prediction for domestic gross is going down to 160 million dollars domestic.


Thor 2 is looking less and less likely daily.

Um dude, you don't know what you're talking about. IM1 had a 49% drop, The Dark Knight had a 52% drop after the first week. Thor will be right in the middle.

Superhero films are notoriously front loaded. SM1 was probably the lone acception.

 

[KangConquers]

Clearly there is no point discussing this with you. It is like talking to a brick wall.

I'm not trying to nitpick, or be like a brick wall. I just don't want another TIH situation where people are flabbergasted because the worldwide total exceeds the budget, but it still didn't get a sequel.

 

[BMM]

I'm still iffy on what FC will make. I think it will gross least. Unless WOM saves it. But I do think it will make as much, if not a bit less than the others.

Me too. I've been thinking it will be one of the better movies, but one of the lower grosses. We'll see.

As for Thor. I would certainly hope a sequel is a lock. I would hate for Marvel to forgo exploring more of the Thor Universe.

 

[KangConquers]

Um dude, you don't know what you're talking about. IM1 had a 49% drop, The Dark Knight had a 52% drop after the first week. Thor will be right in the middle.

Superhero films are notoriously front loaded. SM1 was probably the lone acception.

It had a huge drop from Friday of last week to yesterday. One that was percentage wise larger than TIH's. Not a great movie to be drawing comparisons with.