Wonder Woman Box Office Speculation Thread - Part 3

[Dark Raven]

Theatres would be mad to replace WW with another movie, especially when WW has the legs to keep drawing audiences in.

 

[Dark Raven]

'Wonder Woman' Is About To Face Its Biggest Box Office Challenge Yet

https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottm...iggest-box-office-challenge-yet/#56d63d3c140d

There are many factors that played into Wonder Woman's remarkable success, such as good reviews, strong buzz, a deluge of free publicity concerning the film's effect on its targeted demographics and the idea that it was a movie that audiences had genuinely been waiting for. But one thing to note is that it was arguably the only really good live-action "big" movie for most of its run to date. But, as of Wednesday, the film is about to lose one of its biggest advantages. To wit, it's actually going to have to hold its own against good movies.

Summer began with Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, which received positive reviews and dynamite box office results ($851 million worldwide-and-counting). But then came King Arthur: Legend of the Sword, which was not good and was not remotely successful ($136m worldwide on a $175m budget). It was followed by Alien: Covenant (mixed-positive reviews, but a quick-kill performance that only played to the hardcore fans), Walt Disney's poorly reviewed and slightly underwhelming Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales ($160m domestic-and-counting) and the much-loathed and comparatively ignored Baywatch.

So aside from smaller offerings like Everything, Everything and Snatched (which crawled to $45 million domestic), the marketplace wasn't exactly swimming in high-quality "big" movies by the time Wonder Woman flew into theaters. Wonder Woman's second weekend featured the poorly received and comparatively ignored The Mummy (a domestic total of around $80 million) and its third weekend saw folks sadly ignoring Rough Night (I liked it, but my positive review was in the minority). This past weekend saw the domestic rejection of Paramount/Viacom Inc.'s Transformers: The Last Knight, another poorly reviewed extension of a past-its-prime series.

I've been delinquent in writing the review, but Edgar Wright's Baby Driver is a pretty solid action comedy with a novel premise, a game cast and some narrative surprises along the way. In a different world, it would be a surefire sleeper hit, but in 2017 I hold my breath for any non-tentpole movie in wide release. Heck, I would argue that its biggest advantage heading into release is that it's the first genuinely good mainstream studio programmer we've had since Wonder Woman.

And if the Ansel Elgort/Kevin Spacey/Jamie Foxx/Eiza González caper doesn't connect, there's plenty more right around the corner. And putting aside obvious competition from Illumination's animated Despicable Me 3 (I've intentionally ignored animated fare like Pixar's Cars 3 and DreamWorks Animation's Captain Underpants as big animated films as live-action hits tend to thrive alongside each other), the next few weeks see a deluge of big movies that are, well, good.

Sony's Baby Driver is good. I don't see Spider-Man: Homecoming until Wednesday, but the early buzz is positive and I doubt Sony would drop the embargo nearly two weeks before its July 7 opening day if it were a stinker. As you learned an hour ago, 20th Century Fox's War for the Planet of the Apes, which opens on July 14, is indeed very good. And that's also the day when the terrific The Big Sick goes wide. I can't speak for Luc Besson's Valerian: City of a Thousand Planets or Chris Nolan's Dunkirk on the 21st of July, but I'd be shocked if they were less than solid genre fare.

Plenty of folks have already seen and praised Charlize Theron's Atomic Blonde, due July 28, after its SXSW premiere back in March. I saw the film's centerpiece action scene at CinemaCon and it's a doozy. Skipping back a week, I have no idea if Will Packer and Malcolm D. Lee's Girls Trip (July 21) is any good, but I do know that it will be serving a severely malnourished moviegoing demographic and thus should break out accordingly. And that's just July.

All of this will combine with the expected loss of screens for the Gal Gadot-starring/Patty Jenkins-directed superhero adventure. To be fair, if the newbies continue to underwhelm then they may lose screens faster than the DC Films prequel. But if one of the factors in Wonder Woman's incredible legs (at $24.9 million, it scored the biggest fourth-weekend gross of any movie since Star Wars: The Force Awakens) is its underwhelming competition, we should be curious as to how it will hold up against the relatively good "big" summer movies over the next few weeks.

 

[NotNickFury]

How will it hold up against big summer movies? Chances are it won't, especially if they're well received.

Baby Driver, Spider-Man, and War for the Planet of the Apes are all being praised and are sure to be huge at the box office, not to mention probably generate more interest than the likes of Cars 3 or even the Pirates series in its fifth film. Combined with Wonder Woman having been out for a few weeks already and most folks have probably seen it, not to mention it losing screens in favor of upcoming films...of course it's going to be a challenge. That's nothing specific to Wonder Woman. This could be any movie that's been holding strong for a few weeks but is about to face a slew of well-reviewed challengers.

Such an odd article this was.

 

[Dark Raven]

Well the reviews for Edgar Wright's Baby Driver will probably start trickling in next year some time when the critics finally finish their first draft.

The box office returns will probably come even later, so we don't have to worry about that movie this summer.

 

[Erzengel]

How will it hold up against big summer movies? Chances are it won't, especially if they're well received.

Baby Driver, Spider-Man, and War for the Planet of the Apes are all being praised and are sure to be huge at the box office, not to mention probably generate more interest than the likes of Cars 3 or even the Pirates series in its fifth film. Combined with Wonder Woman having been out for a few weeks already and most folks have probably seen it, not to mention it losing screens in favor of upcoming films...of course it's going to be a challenge. That's nothing specific to Wonder Woman. This could be any movie that's been holding strong for a few weeks but is about to face a slew of well-reviewed challengers.

Such an odd article this was.

Exactly, it's WW's 5th weekend. This isn't a movie that's been #1 for 5 weeks straight.

 

[Flemm]

Well, it's going to drop off, of course, though it will still be interesting to follow.

The Forbes guy is just doing the same thing we're doing, except he presumably gets paid for it.

So... nicely done on his part

Interesting that, according to him, WW actually had the biggest 4th weekend of any movie since the The Force Awakens. Not too shabby.

 

[Iceman]

At this stage when the film has already made most of its money it doesn't make as much difference. But certainly the competition is suddenly going to go from all round terrible to strong across the board.

 

[UncleSam1776]

I can't wait for people to start freaking out when Wonder Woman's box office drops start to get a little bigger due to competition and the fact that it is approaching its 5th weekend. By the way, I have already seen some people mention that Wonder Woman's success has been due to a weak June. I am still waiting for those people to list me the blockbusters that GotG Vol 2 had to fend off in May. GotG Vol 2. had the first 3 weeks with no domestic or overseas blockbuster. The same can't be said for WW as Pirates & the Mummy were both big overseas.

 

[Ozbridge]

3.1M Monday according to Gitesh someone post link for me I'm on mobile

Over Deadpool dom and 750M WW is locked now but WW vs GotG 2 dom and WW vs GotG 1/ Deadpool WW is still fun to follow.

 

[iEquinox]

3.1M Monday according to Gitesh someone post link for me I'm on mobile

Don't see one by Gitesh yet, but I see one by BoxOfficeReport:

Wonder Woman grossed an estimated $3.08M on Monday. 25-Day total stands at $321.19M.

https://***********/BORReport/status/879700731363606528

 

[Flemm]

Wow, that's a very nice number. Roughly a 60% drop from Sunday, and somewhere between 35 and 40% from the prior Monday.

 

[Iceman]

Yep good Monday.

 

[iEquinox]

Wow, that's a very nice number. Roughly a 60% drop from Sunday, and somewhere between 35 and 40% from the prior Monday.

It's late June so slightly under 60% is pretty much the standard Monday drop now.

It's 35.9% from last Monday, and the drop from Tuesday/Wednesday will be smaller than that, because there's no TF5 previews to compete with this week. Baby Driver is getting Tuesday previews(releasing this Wednesday), but that won't affect it as much as TF5 did.

 

[Micromind]

I am still waiting for those people to list me the blockbusters that GotG Vol 2 had to fend off in May. GotG Vol 2. had the first 3 weeks with no domestic or overseas blockbuster. The same can't be said for WW as Pirates & the Mummy were both big overseas.

Yeah, there was not much competition for GoTG Vol.2 for first 3 weeks, even after the third week, the movies that were released were not very well received.

May 5 (week 1)
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2

May 12 (week 2)
King Arthur: Legend of the Sword


May 19 (week 3)
Alien: Covenant
Diary of a Wimpy Kid: The Long Haul


May 26 (week 4)
Baywatch
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales

 

[StormC]

I'm really looking forward to Baby Driver but I dunno if it's sure to be a box office hit. Not sure how much buzz there is among the GA. Hope I'm wrong.

Like I said before, the only way you could be upset with WW starting to slow down is if you wanted the pie-in-the-sky 400M DOM.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

That's a good number. Tomorrow's increase will be better than last week's what with Baby Driver being a lesser competition than TF5. Low 20's increase is very likely.

 

[Comicbookguy339]

Where/What is this gif from?

 

[Iceman]

I'm really looking forward to Baby Driver but I dunno if it's sure to be a box office hit. Not sure how much buzz there is among the GA. Hope I'm wrong.

Like I said before, the only way you could be upset with WW starting to slow down is if you wanted the pie-in-the-sky 400M DOM.

Yeah me too. Will be watching that asap. Not sure quite how big it will be either.

 

[Erzengel]

Yeah, there was not much competition for GoTG Vol.2 for first 3 weeks, even after the third week, the movies that were released were not very well received.

Mummy only made $275 overseas, I wouldn't say that really prevented WW from doing better worldwide. Pirates was released a week before and made probably over 50% of it's international gross prior to to even WW being released.

One could also say that WW benefited from the Pirates, Mummy, TF5, Cars 3 all having terrible WOM.

Don't get me wrong, I think GOTG2 also benefited the same way with Arthur, Alien and Pirates as well.

While I do agree TF and Cars were bigger movies, neither are really doing anything box office wise, that does benefit WW.

 

[Osiris-Rex]

Forbes is speculating that Wonder Woman could reach $400 million domestic. If Wonder Woman were to manage to get to $404 million,
that would be the biggest domestic of any comic book movie without Batman or Captain America in it, topping even 2002 Spider-Man.

Box Office: 'Wonder Woman' Might Just Leg It To $400 Million

Scott Mendelson ,
Contributor

I cover the film industry.
Opinions expressed by Forbes Contributors are their own.

Warner Bros.

Gal Gadot in 'Wonder Woman'



Another day, another Wonder Woman box office post! As long as you keep reading them, I'll keep writing them. Wonder Woman ended its fourth weekend with $318.111 million after 24 days of domestic play and earned $3m yesterday, a drop of just 36% from last Monday, for a $321.186m domestic cume. That means it passed the unadjusted domestic gross of Iron Man ($318.5m in 2008 and sans 3D) yesterday, will top Suicide Squad ($325m) today and is days away from passing Batman v Superman ($330m). Oh, it should pass the $665m worldwide cume of Jennifer Yuh Nelson's (still awesome) Kung Fu Panda 2 either today or over the next day or two to become the biggest global grosser ever from a solo female filmmaker.
Now for the record, as much grief as we've given the DC Films franchise over the last year or so, I think it stands to reason that any cinematic universe where the lowest-grossing installment (out of four thus far) sits at $291 million domestic/$668m worldwide (Man of Steel) is doing pretty well. So, as the headline asks, can Wonder Woman make it to $400m domestic by the time it finishes? Well, as befitting most long-term questions with a yes or no answer, the answer is "maybe."

https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottm...ight-just-leg-it-to-400-million/#3e108953aa52

 

[Flemm]

The first line in the article made me chuckle.

Apparently people are clicking on his WW articles, so he keeps writing them, so we keep clicking...

It's the circle of life

 

[iEquinox]

Forbes is speculating that Wonder Woman could reach $400 million domestic. If Wonder Woman were to manage to get to $404 million, that would be the biggest domestic of any comic book movie without Batman or Captain America in it, topping even 2002 Spider-Man. https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottm...ight-just-leg-it-to-400-million/#3e108953aa52

Pretty sure neither Batman nor Captain America were in Iron Man 3 :P

 

[metaphysician]

WW extending run in China for another month-to july 31

http://comicbook.com/dc/2017/06/27/wonder-woman-extending-its-run-in-china/

That certainly won't hurt WW's final gross. I'd guess at least an extra 10M from that, maybe more.

 

[Dark Raven]

Where/What is this gif from?

Boxofficelegs.com

Seriously though, I don't know.

 

[StormC]

July is just too stacked for 400M to be feasible. MCU Spidey with RDJ and great buzz, closer to Apes trilogy with overwhelming critical acclaim, and a Nolan film, all back to back. I can't remember the last summer month that had so many must-see movies.