Wonder Woman Box Office Speculation Thread - Part 3

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This is a continuation thread, the old thread is [split]531001[/split]

 

[Thread Manager]

This is a continuation thread, the old thread is [split]530251[/split]

 

[flickchick85]

What kind of theater doesn't have AC? Yikes.

Yikes indeed. Back in the day, AC used to be one of the main appeals of movie theaters. Like, they used bigger letters to advertise their air conditioning than they did to advertise the movies they were playing, lol.

 

[jr24tw]

AC is something that generally you won't find much around here. Whether that's in housing or at work. The bigger cinema at the other side of town I think has AC but I avoid going there because it's near our big central train station and that has become a dangerous place.

 

[Iceman]

Can't imagine watching a film on a hot summer's day without AC.

 

[Kelly]

I can't imagine doing anything without AC

 

[Dark Raven]

They could do with turning down the AC though. It often gets rather cold in the theatre. It's not somewhere where you could sit in shorts, but if it's hot outside you're not going to want to wear jeans.

 

[Primal Slayer]

I went to a movie once and they forgot to turn the AC on and.....feet. smelled straight up like feet.

 

[DieSmiling]

So question for the experts -- does this have any legitimate change at being the number one comic book film of 2017 domestically?

Obviously it will need spectacular legs to pass GotG2, but so far it has had them... Can it get to the 385m or so it will need?

What are the odds it beats Spidey? Justice League?

I ask only because it would have seemed totally impossible six months ago but now it's not even that insane. What do you guys think?

 

[flickchick85]

I think it has a good shot at besting Spidey and Ragnarok domestically. The last couple Spidey movies didn't even come close to crossing $300m, and Thor has only barely crossed $200m. But Justice League? Might be close. Really depends on WOM on that one. I'm not quite yet convinced it'll pass Guardians, either. But the way it's going, it's certainly got a shot.

 

[DieSmiling]

I think it has a good shot at besting Spidey and Ragnarok domestically. The last couple Spidey movies didn't even come close to crossing $300m, and Thor has only barely crossed $200m. But Justice League? Might be close. Really depends on WOM on that one. I'm not quite yet convinced it'll pass Guardians, either. But the way it's going, it's certainly got a shot.

I tend to agree.

It's going to be a struggle to match GotG2 but it has a shot if the legs stay as impressive as they have been.

Spidey is kind of a wildcard. It's hard to balance the fact that it's ANOTHER reboot of a character that has lost momentum... With the fact that it's ultimately a very popular character worked into the MCU with RDJ in the picture.

Thor isn't really in the mix, I think, but who knows, I've been wrong before. I do think Ragnarok will be the highest grossing Thor film to date, but I don't see it breaking 300m.

Justice League obviously SHOULD be the champ... But who knows, really? I would have assumed BvS would have been too. It really depends on the reviews/reception. Nobody would have ever guessed that WW would outgross BvS... If Justice League is well received the sky is the limit, but if it gets a BvS/Suicide Squad type reception? Could be a big disappointment.

Again, the fact that it's even in the conversation that WW could outgross JL, Spidey, and GotG 2 is the real story. But I think it's worth discussing.

 

[Iceman]

I think it has a good shot at besting Spidey and Ragnarok domestically. The last couple Spidey movies didn't even come close to crossing $300m, and Thor has only barely crossed $200m. But Justice League? Might be close. Really depends on WOM on that one. I'm not quite yet convinced it'll pass Guardians, either. But the way it's going, it's certainly got a shot.

Domestically it should have a great chance of beating Spidey and Ragnarok but it will feel weird if it beats JL too, especially given that she will be a leading figure in JL.

 

[flickchick85]

Yeah for the record, I think Homecoming will very EASILY outperform the last two Spidey flicks domestically. But by more than $100m? I have my doubts on that. I think it'll cap off right around $350m if WOM is good. WW should still be topping that no problem.

And with JL, I cannot stress how important the WOM factor will be on that. It will obviously OPEN much bigger than WW, but if it's as poorly-received as BvS? WW will likely still end up outgrossing it. However, if it's a decent film or better, it will win the domestic crown for sure, imo.

 

[gerrym51]

So question for the experts -- does this have any legitimate change at being the number one comic book film of 2017 domestically?

Obviously it will need spectacular legs to pass GotG2, but so far it has had them... Can it get to the 385m or so it will need?

What are the odds it beats Spidey? Justice League?

I ask only because it would have seemed totally impossible six months ago but now it's not even that insane. What do you guys think?

Do true EXPERTS post on superherohype? I doubt it.LOL. Pretty sure most people who post here are=think they are experts at best.

 

[DieSmiling]

Do true EXPERTS post on superherohype? I doubt it.LOL. Pretty sure most people who post here are=think they are experts at best.

Well yeah. Count me among them. I'm just asking for thoughts form people who follow this closely.

 

[flickchick85]

"Experts" is a relative term here, lol.

 

[Iceman]

Yeah for the record, I think Homecoming will very EASILY outperform the last two Spidey flicks domestically. But by more than $100m? I have my doubts on that. I think it'll cap off right around $350m if WOM is good. WW should still be topping that no problem.

Yes this is it. I expect both Homecoming and Ragnarok to do well/very well and outperform the TASM series and prior Thor films. But WW had the novelty factor of being the first WW film and the first full on powerhouse leading female superhero film as well as being a top film in its own right. Those factors combined will make it a tough one to beat domestically. Team up films though have a potential event movie status on a different scale, although execution still obviously matters and JL will be carrying plenty of baggage.

 

[kendalag]

Wonder Woman has a shot at Guardians, but it will be tough. It will be somewhere around 350 million when Spider-Man opens. However, I think with Spider-Man, Apes, Dunkirk, it will eventually lose screens and finish closer to 380 (and Guardians closer to 390)

If Spider-Man opens at a similar # (100-120) I don't see it doing much more than 300 because it won't have the cultural push that WW has had to get these great holds and it's a 'been there, done that' franchise.

Thor won't beat Wonder Woman, because well ... it's Thor and if that film gets 300 it would be a great accomplishment for it, nearly 100 million more than Thor 2. I know it's got all these trailer views, but the way things get views just by being on facebook pages now skews that stuff.

Justice League will open much higher than Wonder Woman, probably closer to 150 (it probably doesn't out open BvS because of not having Good Friday, but will have a huge second week with the long Thanksgiving weekend. Justice League will probably do somewhere in the 375-425 range (unless it's worse than BvS, then all bets are off).

So yeah, Guardians or Justice League should win the year (for comic book movies), but Wonder Woman will definitely be the more impressive run.

 

[Iceman]

Do true EXPERTS post on superherohype? I doubt it.LOL. Pretty sure most people who post here are=think they are experts at best.

There are many pathetic, nasty, false experts posting here. I'm one of the extremely true EXPERTS. I usually make my predictions the day after a film has exited cinemas and so far I've been closer than most.

 

[Greenlite]

I think Spidey is the wild card because of RDJ, don't know how much extra he will pull in, but if Im3 made 400M then Spidey prob will not pass that or get near it.

I am surprised people think JL will end up at the top lol, BvS made 330M so I thought anywhere around that would be good for WB, but ya if WW carries the goodwill and WOM and Critical receptions are decent then might have a shot at 400M.

For me WW will pass GOTG2 which will end around 385-390M. WW has a small chance of reaching 400M now, look at its comp for the next month, nothing that stand out to steal its female adult and little girls demo.

This is for DOM and I am not an expert btw.

 

[Dark Raven]

So question for the experts -- does this have any legitimate change at being the number one comic book film of 2017 domestically?

Obviously it will need spectacular legs to pass GotG2, but so far it has had them... Can it get to the 385m or so it will need?

What are the odds it beats Spidey? Justice League?

I ask only because it would have seemed totally impossible six months ago but now it's not even that insane. What do you guys think?

 

[DieSmiling]

I think Spidey is the wild card because of RDJ, don't know how much extra he will pull in, but if Im3 made 400M then Spidey prob will not pass that or get near it.

I am surprised people think JL will end up at the top lol, BvS made 330M so I thought anywhere around that would be good for WB, but ya if WW carries the goodwill and WOM and Critical receptions are decent then might have a shot at 400M.

For me WW will pass GOTG2 which will end around 385-390M. WW has a small chance of reaching 400M now, look at its comp for the next month, nothing that stand out to steal its female adult and little girls demo.

This is for DOM and I am not an expert btw.

I think 400m would be very impressive for Spidey. I think this is a pretty interesting test for RDJ/Ironman/MCU brand. I'm just not convinced people are excited for ANOTHER Spider-Man in a 10 year span.

I think the higher projections for JL are based on the idea that it will be much better received that BvS, which isn't a given obviously. I will say I'm confident it will open higher that BvS -- I'd be shocked if it doesn't do better than BvS domestically. But I think we all accept that JL has the biggest range -- its floor is probably in the 300m range, it's ceiling is enormous.

 

[Marathon]

WW currently:

2nd on Fandango
2nd on Movietickets (20.2% share)

Transformers is 1st on Fandango and 3rd on Movietickets.

 

[DieSmiling]

WW currently:

2nd on Fandango
2nd on Movietickets (20.2% share)

Transformers is 1st on Fandango and 3rd on Movietickets.

Transformers feels like a stinker. Similar to POTC5 it was made for international audiences. Should win the weekend but shouldn't impress at all.

 

[StormC]

If JL is another turd WW should beat it without much issue.