Wonder Woman Box Office Speculation Thread - Part 1

[Osiris-Rex]

I blame WB, somewhat: their marketing push for Wonder Woman was a *lot* smaller than for the last couple movies. Even while its understandable that they rein in their budgets, WW sure as hell deserved the platinum PR work than Suicide Squad.

Somewhere around 2 million people saw this. And that's not counting all the ones that watched it on the various websites and on YouTube and talked about it on Twitter.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WLlwgBuKymo

 

[danoyse]

Good movies with good WOM build over their weekends. t:

My dad was all about seeing The Mummy next weekend. Now he wants to see Wonder Woman again instead.

 

[Jonwo]

The Mummy's reviews aren't appearing until Thursday, that's never a good sign. I think WW should be number 1 again

 

[jmc]

If it's Thursday in the US the embargo lifts thats a day after it opens down here. Oh, boy....

 

[terry78]

I'm batman.

 

[Boom]

The Mummy looks like straight trash. But that's what you get for hiring a writer like Alex Kurtzman to direct the first big-budget film in your shared monster universe.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

My dad was all about seeing The Mummy next weekend. Now he wants to see Wonder Woman again instead.

Nice. t:

Going to take my mom to see it. She has been curious, and once my brother told her how much we liked it, she was like, "heck yes".

 

[mclay18]

Fantastic Sunday hold. And no surprise to me after seeing how crowded my showing yesterday was. This will have great legs.

I think the most optimistic for WW to play out is if its run is similar to Batman Begins. That's a pipe dream right now, but its appeal is four-quadrant. Women are seeing it with their girlfriends and/or their daughters. Parents are taking their kids. Single men are seeing this, in addition to college students and teenagers. Even a fair amount of baby boomers too.

I honestly think with its appeal to women, the legs will be stronger. Yeah, family fare like Cars 3 and Despicable Me 3 will take away some business but I can see a strong $300M domestic haul in line for WW, if not more. A 4x multiplier would be crazy.

 

[Tony Stark]

I think the most optimistic for WW to play out is if its run is similar to Batman Begins. That's a pipe dream right now, but its appeal is four-quadrant. Women are seeing it with their girlfriends and/or their daughters. Parents are taking their kids. Single men are seeing this, in addition to college students and teenagers. Even a fair amount of baby boomers too.

I honestly think with its appeal to women, the legs will be stronger. Yeah, family fare like Cars 3 and Despicable Me 3 will take away some business but I can see a strong $300M domestic haul in line for WW, if not more. A 4x multiplier would be crazy.

3X is going to be difficult, but not impossible. The big problem is what Guardians experienced this week where it had a 52% drop because it not only lost screens but pretty much lost nearly all of it's 3D showings. This is going to be a huge problem for WW, when Cars, DM3 and Transformers 5, and Spider-man come out.

If this came out in August it would be an easy 3X multiplier. Right now I'm playing on the safe side of 2.5 - 2.7. They are really going to have to push to keep this on as many screens as possible. It really would help to have a 55% drop or better next week, if this is a typical 58-60 drop, I don't see how it will get to 300.

 

[flickchick85]

My current prediction: $280m domestic + $440m Intl. = $720m WW.

 

[dhandler01]

My current prediction: $280m domestic + $440m Intl. = $720m WW.

And then some trolls will make up reasons the movie was a failure and lost money

 

[DarthSkywalker]

And then some trolls will make up reasons the movie was a failure and lost money

Good thing WW didn't cost well over 400m to produce and advertise.

 

[Micromind]

Will WW earn more than Lucy (2014) ?

Lucy did exceptionally well in Overseas market for a R-rated movie. Given the competition for WW, earning 335 mil overseas seems a tough task. (Cars, Despicable Me 2, Transformers coming soon.)

Lucy

Domestic: $126 mil ( 27.3% )
Foreign: $336 mil ( 72.7%)
---------------------------------------
Worldwide: $463 mil (approx.)

 

[Raiden]

The Mummy looks like straight trash. But that's what you get for hiring a writer like Alex Kurtzman to direct the first big-budget film in your shared monster universe.

Maybe Universal will ignore the Mummy in their continuity like they did for that Dracula movie that starred Luke Evans if it doesn't do well.

 

[flickchick85]

And then some trolls will make up reasons the movie was a failure and lost money

Yes I thought that part was implied, lol.

 

[Wildcard]

My current prediction: $280m domestic + $440m Intl. = $720m WW.

I think WW will go past $300 million domestically, even if it only slightly crosses that threshold. If SS could do it while being a p.o.s. movie, WW can while being a great one.

I also strongly suspect it'll retain the number one spot. I mean, do general audiences really care about The Mummy? Trailer barely got a reaction from the audience I saw WW with.

 

[Micromind]

I think WW will go past $300 million domestically, even if it only slightly crosses that threshold. If SS could do it while being a p.o.s. movie, WW can while being a great one.

I also strongly suspect it'll retain the number one spot. I mean, do general audiences really care about The Mummy? Trailer barely got a reaction from the audience I saw WW with.

You cannot view things without putting them in context, WW faces more competition in June month from Mummy, Cars 3, Transformers 5, Despicable Me 3, which would take away movie screens.

 

[Juan1193]

You cannot view things without putting them in context, WW faces more competition in June month from Mummy, Cars 3, Transformers 5, Despicable Me 3, which would take away movie screens.

Didn't Man Of Steel, a divisive film do 291 million in June 2013 with much stronger competition? I can see Wonder Woman making it to 300 million. I mean The Mummy is no WWZ and Cars 3 is no Monster's University!

Despicable Me 3 and Transformers are tougher competition but they come out 3-4 weeks after WW and the latter skews more male. I guess we'll have to wait and see.

EDIT: Low Ball vs High Ball
285 DOM; 365 INT = 650 WW
305 DOM; 410 INT = 715 WW

 

[SomeOldGuy]

There's some talk of a $12 million-ish Monday from the BOT board insiders. That would be a terrific start to the first week if it pans out. We'll see.

 

[dhandler01]

Yes I thought that part was implied, lol.

I have never been one to leave things unsaid

 

[Dark Raven]

Will WW earn more than Lucy (2014) ?

Lucy did exceptionally well in Overseas market for a R-rated movie. Given the competition for WW, earning 335 mil overseas seems a tough task. (Cars, Despicable Me 2, Transformers coming soon.)

Lucy

Domestic: $126 mil ( 27.3% )
Foreign: $336 mil ( 72.7%)
---------------------------------------
Worldwide: $463 mil (approx.)

Didn't like the movie "Lucy." And can't seem to remember the ending of it. I must've blacked it out.

 

[Erzengel]

You cannot view things without putting them in context, WW faces more competition in June month from Mummy, Cars 3, Transformers 5, Despicable Me 3, which would take away movie screens.

The last Cars ($191M) and Transformers ($245) didn't really do gangbusters. The latter obviously heavily depended on foreign markets. It obviously depends on the reception.

Despicable Me 2 did really well however, you are talking a full 4 weeks later for DM3 after WW. GOTG2 and WW were separated by the same amount, but you wouldn't consider GOTG2 as direct competition to WW.

 

[Zero_Effect]

Exhibitor Relations‏ @ERCboxoffice
Insert battle cry here: WONDER WOMAN tallied up $11.7M on Monday.

 

[UncleSam1776]

There's some talk of a $12 million-ish Monday from the BOT board insiders. That would be a terrific start to the first week if it pans out. We'll see.

They were right. It made $11.7M

 

[SomeOldGuy]

The last Cars ($191M) and Transformers ($245) didn't really do gangbusters. The latter obviously heavily depended on foreign markets. It obviously depends on the reception.

Despicable Me 2 did really well however, you are talking a full 4 weeks later for DM3 after WW. GOTG2 and WW were separated by the same amount, but you wouldn't consider GOTG2 as direct competition to WW.

Domestically I expect Transformers to perform like Pirates (unless its way better than it looks in the trailers, which seems unlikely). It's fan base will show up OW and give it a nice number, then it will fall off a cliff. Not sure how much Cars and DM3 will really conflict with the WW audience.