Wonder Woman Box Office Speculation Thread - Part 3

[Ozbridge]

Hey I just want to chime in that Chinese are sexist as hell, they probably convince themselves that they go to see WW because Gal is hot etc not because it's a superhero movie (for super hero fans) or a good movie. When a female led movie has the protagonist in her proper carer/ nurturer/ lover role then it's fine, but if she's in a warrior role then it's considered unnatural. Of course there're other reasons as well but the audience's sexism plays a big role. The 2 SW movies can also make more in China if they just change the gender of their leads.

Disclaimer I'm not Chinese but I grew up in Asia and my country is probably the same in the sexist competition.

 

[iEquinox]

yea I'm talking DC when i say WB.

I should clarify that I'm more focusing on the huge China market factor.

A very 'divisive' BvS did very well in several markets but got screwed in china for several reasons(some of that is on Wb's scheduling) including the sheer amount of screens it lost to local releases in like it's second weekend there if I recall. It's total there could have been on the better side of 100 million over under. But I suppose it sucked. Then you have suicide squad which clearly did well in several markets but again got screwed in china and missed out on an opportunity to build the brand there. I film i don't like but think would have been the first DC film to ever crack 100mill at least there if not more.
Then you have perhaps DC's biggest brand building film ever, one of the biggest reasons DC is so big in state side in recent times. The Dark Knight. remove this films release from history and batman is possibly still doing begins numbers and the decu loses alot of it's post nolan momentum. Well TDK wasn't even released in china so, go ahead and do that there.

Now we have wonder women, also doing well intl i'm sure. It's china numbers doing that same old sub 100mill thing... Even logan has WW soundly beat in china and has crossed the 100mill threshold, whereas if one compared them domestically, the later is gonna end somewhere near doubling the former. The lower tier recent mcu films, the ones in the mid 200mill or lower range, such as DR. strange or TWS, these get over 100mill in china. Ant man got over 100mill in china(it didn't even crack 200 domestic). If DC could tap in to this market the way they clearly have domestically, all their releases would be a good score higher. They could start by not having ever other or so Banned there.

Some of these recent hollywood films save for star wars that are doing the 1.3 to 1.6 billion are being bolstered by a ~200plus boost from there. You take a mega hit like civil war, give it the tdk treatment(ignoring 3D of course) and it actually falls short of a billion. You give it BvS' china numbers and it hits 1,068. Pretty much TDK numbers. Point being that big china boost is...big today. Now granted avengers didn't need it way back when but the 250mill AOU got certainly kept that series in the aforementioned club.

And there will always be the what could have been known as Fury Road, not sure what WB did there. But they did good with Pacific Rim there. And now I get a sequel. Still, i was talking dc.

DC needing to build in china was my point and WW not having the burden of rotten tomatoes or an fickle audience score should highlight that beyond people saying "cause it's bad". Looking like civil war numbers domestic and not even antman numbers from china. Can a solid and well received JLA film get's into the ~1.5bill club without china really showing up? Even if it pulls a TDK and rakes in 500 billion here...
They need to figure out how to crack china.

Clearly you weren't talking just DC when you said WB, or you wouldn't have brought up Harry Potter, right? You were talking about WB as a whole at first.

And DC doesn't have a problem in China. Only 2 MCU movies have gone huge in China, Civil War and AoU, both of which are huge event style movies. Some of the others managed to go a little bit over $100M. Out of the other 13 MCU movies, the ones that did go over $100M in China were DS, AM, GotG2, TWS and IM3. Out of those, only IM3 made it past $120M. At todays exchange rates, only DS, AM and GotG2 would have (barely) made it past $100M in China. So IM3, the 3rd highest grossing MCU movie in China, would not have made it past $100M there today. Put BvS and WW in China at 2014's exchange rate and they're both easily past $100M as well. DC is doing perfectly fine in China.

BvS got "screwed in China" because it got horrible word of mouth(and horrible exchange rates). With decent word of mouth it would easily have made it past $100M in China. SS didn't get "screwed in China", it just didn't get released there. That isn't because WB is doing someting wrong, but "because of China's censorship of stories with a negative outlook on life" (Source)

So, again, WB is doing perfectly fine internationally, and that includes DC films in China.

 

[PacificBoy]

Hey I just want to chime in that Chinese are sexist as hell, they probably convince themselves that they go to see WW because Gal is hot etc not because it's a superhero movie (for super hero fans) or a good movie. When a female led movie has the protagonist in her proper carer/ nurturer/ lover role then it's fine, but if she's in a warrior role then it's considered unnatural. Of course there're other reasons as well but the audience's sexism plays a big role. The 2 SW movies can also make more in China if they just change the gender of their leads.

Disclaimer I'm not Chinese but I grew up in Asia and my country is probably the same in the sexist competition.

Nah, as a Chinese I'll be the first to admit China has issues with sexism in general but not in their onscreen enjoyment. Resident Evil's BO numbers this year prove otherwise.

 

[Ozbridge]

Well I'm pretty sure a female led F&F movie will make bank in China too.

 

[Juan1193]

Somwhere out there Jeff Robinov is kicking himself in the foot for sitting on Wonder Woman all those years! So much for that "female leads dont sell" stance he had while working at WB!! Lol

 

[PacificBoy]

Well I'm pretty sure a female led F&F movie will make bank in China too.

The difference is Milla Jovovich is the definitive face of the franchise and proof that a kickass female lead can bring in the box office. So your assertion is just pure opinion.

 

[Micromind]

Somwhere out there Jeff Robinov is kicking himself in the foot for sitting on Wonder Woman all those years! So much for that "female leads dont sell" stance he had while working at WB!! Lol

Oh zod no. He would have ruined the franchise, wasn't Halle Berry's Catwoman made during his tenure ?

 

[Blitzkrieg]

Deadline updated again:

4.) Wonder Woman (WB), 3,091 theaters (-313) / $3.1M Fri. (-29%)/ 3-day cume: $10.7M (-32%)/ Total: $369.4M / Wk 6

Wow, they aren't budging from early estimates. Color me shocked. WW has been doing exceptionally well so far but dropping 30% against a direct competition smack in the middle of summer is totes bonkers. I'll be so freakin' happy if this really happens.

Also, WW has done very well in OS countries by all accounts. It's an origin movie featuring no huge internationally recognizable stars and still it'll end up with an OS gross of 405 million+. If anything, WW doing crazy amazing in the DOM markets is taking all the cake here. The stunning over-performance in US+Canada is the talking point. WW has done reasonably well in foreign countries with very good legs across the board.

Also DCEU needs their own ''Avengers'' movie. The movies coming after that phenomenon will get massive OS bump. I hope Justice League (2017) is the answer to that.

 

[Greenlite]

Clearly you weren't talking just DC when you said WB, or you wouldn't have brought up Harry Potter, right? You were talking about WB as a whole at first.

And DC doesn't have a problem in China. Only 2 MCU movies have gone huge in China, Civil War and AoU, both of which are huge event style movies. Some of the others managed to go a little bit over $100M. Out of the other 13 MCU movies, the ones that did go over $100M in China were DS, AM, GotG2, TWS and IM3. Out of those, only IM3 made it past $120M. At todays exchange rates, only DS, AM and GotG2 would have (barely) made it past $100M in China. So IM3, the 3rd highest grossing MCU movie in China, would not have made it past $100M there today. Put BvS and WW in China at 2014's exchange rate and they're both easily past $100M as well. DC is doing perfectly fine in China.

BvS got "screwed in China" because it got horrible word of mouth(and horrible exchange rates). With decent word of mouth it would easily have made it past $100M in China. SS didn't get "screwed in China", it just didn't get released there. That isn't because WB is doing someting wrong, but "because of China's censorship of stories with a negative outlook on life" (Source)

So, again, WB is doing perfectly fine internationally, and that includes DC films in China.

China has a pattern of showing up for Robots (Pacific Rim, TF), Vin Diesel flicks, Resident Evil, Fast and Furious, and then some Marvel films.

SW didn't do hot not because of Rey, but Chinese are just not into SW in general, how many people lived through the original series and are showing up for the new series? They were still in Cultural Revolution/after effects of it when SW was hot.

TDK didnt get a Chinese release, Rises got 50M in 2012, MOS made about 60M 2013, BvS made just under 100M, SS didnt get a release, and WW has a chance to do 95-100M. WB got 2 major Chinese companies to sponsor WW (thus the extra month to run in theater now), so I don't see a problem with the WB strategy there.

China has Douban and other sites that review movies or let audiences vote as well, Pirates 5 got 7.4, WW 7.3, The Mummy got 4.8, so they still look at reviews as well, they are not zombies, they just really like robots and cars.

Another way WB can bump the interest in China is to hire big traditioanl stars like Depp, Cruise, Vin Diesel etc, or cater to their govt by removing a subplot from TDK, Katana from SS (Despicable Me 3 got a release this year, so it's not just negative leads that's banning movies), but I'd rather have WB stick to their creative plans than hiring these actors just for another 50-100M b.o. Where you only take 1/4 of the profit. Marvel catered with Dr Strange, used false marketing to get two Chinse actors into IM3, so WB does not need to do this and I appreciate them for it.

Also the currency is horrible right now too, can't wire my money through for a month due to the huge spike =P
Btw this is a general response not to IE's post which I agree with as well.

 

[Greenlite]

Wow, they aren't budging from early estimates. Color me shocked. WW has been doing exceptionally well so far but dropping 30% against a direct competition smack in the middle of summer is totes bonkers. I'll be so freakin' happy if this really happens.

Also, WW has done very well in OS countries by all accounts. It's an origin movie featuring no huge internationally recognizable stars and still it'll end up with an OS gross of 405 million+. If anything, WW doing crazy amazing in the DOM markets is taking all the cake here. The stunning over-performance in US+Canada is the talking point. WW has done reasonably well in foreign countries with very good legs across the board.

Also DCEU needs their own ''Avengers'' movie. The movies coming after that phenomenon will get massive OS bump. I hope Justice League (2017) is the answer to that.

It's going to do 405M OS? How much was JPN in that estimate? The higher OS the lesser WW needs in DOM to crack 800M =)

 

[Greenlite]

I don't think it's a lock, but it becomes A LOT more likely. It'll be near $370M or even get to that if it's at $11M or just over this weekend. IF it keeps with 30%ish drops, it'll be at $7M or more next weekend. That puts it likely past $380M domestic after next weekend if the drops continue to be small.

It's not bleeding theaters and is holding very well, so there's no reason to expect the bottom to fall out.

If things go well, Wonder Woman should be at $377-378M or better going into next Friday. WW should be at $388-390M at end of day on July 20. Around $395M by July 21.

So WW may cross $400M before July finishes. maybe finishing with $410-415M after Labor Day weekend if solid drops continue and the theater count slowly declines.

Looks like it is very likely to be the big summer box office winner unless Spidey has some big legs - and we'll know more next weekend about that.

I also suspect that Wonder Woman's digital and retail release will be used as a way of promoting Justice League as it should arrive in October, about a month ahead of JL.

I was estimating 400M at the end of August IF it holds 1/3 drop weekly after doing 11M against Spidey this weekend, but if it makes it in July I'd be happily stunned.

If it gets too close to 400M or 410M passing IM3 and CW at the end, I'd re-release it right before JL as a warm up to hype the anticipation, as an excuse to edge passed some milestones, it'd help if JL gets a positive press and critical reviews as well

 

[iEquinox]

It's going to do 405M OS? How much was JPN in that estimate? The higher OS the lesser WW needs in DOM to crack 800M =)

$400M OS is looking pretty likely.

Last week is made it made $12.1M OS during weekdays. This week the weekdays estimate was $6.4M, a 47% drop. If the weekend has the same drop it will get $8.2M OS this weekend for a OS total of $378M after Sunday. With the most frontloaded markets only making up a small part of last weekends gross, it should make 2x that $8M weekend in the remaining markets for an OS total of $394M. It then needs only $6M in Japan to get past $400M, which it should get.

So even if you're very conservative, it should pass $400M OS. If the $10M+ domestic weekend holds, it will no longer just have "a shot at $800M", $800M+ would actually be the likely outcome.

But first the numbers have to hold up, let's wait and see if it gets $10M+ DOM and 8M+ OS this weekend.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

It's going to do 405M OS?

After 02.07.2017, WW's OS tally was at 363.4 million off of a 15.5 million OS weekend. Generally you can double the weekend numbers to get close to the final numbers the movie is gonna end up with.

So [363.4 + (15.5x2)] = 394.4 million. This is nearly impossible, as in last 4 weekdays WW added (369.8-363.4) = 5.5 million. Assuming a 60% drop against a world-wide SM:H release, the OS 6th weekend will be 6.2 million.

Again from there we have [ 363.4 + 5.5 + 6.2 + (6.2x2) ] = 387.6 million.

Nao add 17.5 million from Japan & we'll get (387.6+17.5) = 405.1 million.

How much was JPN in that estimate?

So far the word is that it's not gonna break out like we wish it would. We can expect normal BvS/Skwad numbers form Japan.

The higher OS the lesser WW needs in DOM to crack 800M

If WW does manage dat phenomenal hold this weekend against Spidey, we can expect 400 million+ DOM. I'm not sayin' it'll happen for sure but the insane likeliness is a step closer than it was before. That also puts 800 million+ WW as a real possibility.

How about that, who would have thought about a performance of this stature and magnitude.

All hail Wonder Woman.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

$400M OS is looking pretty likely.

Last week is made it made $12.1M OS during weekdays. This week the weekdays estimate was $6.4M, a 47% drop. If the weekend has the same drop it will get $8.2M OS this weekend for a OS total of $378M after Sunday. With the most frontloaded markets only making up a small part of last weekends gross, it should easily make 2x that $8M weekend in the remaining markets for an OS total of $394M. It then needs only $6M in Japan to get past $400M, which it should get.

So even if you're very conservative, it should pass $400M OS. If the $10M+ domestic weekend holds, it will no longer just have "a shot at $800M", $800M+ would actually be the likely outcome.

But first the numbers have to hold up, let's wait and see if it gets $10M+ DOM and 8M+ OS this weekend.

Bro, where is that 6.4 million OS weekdays number coming from??

 

[iEquinox]

Bro, where is that 6.4 million OS weekdays number coming from??

Already edited my post and changed it to the correct number.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

Already edited my post and changed it to the correct number.

I thought I was wrong as you always post the correct numbers. The revised OS weekend must've confused ya.

 

[iEquinox]

I thought I was wrong as you always post the correct numbers. The revised OS weekend must've confused ya.

Actually, you confused me, the actual number was $6.4M LOL

369.8-363.4=6.4 xD

Time to go back and re-edit my post I guess

Guess you got confused and switched the 9 and 8 in the 369.8M number, and then I made the same mistake when you posted the 5.5M number.

 

[Greenlite]

Thanks guys, can't believe after this weekend Diana will be only 31-32M away from 400M DOM, with considerable gas to go.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

Actually, you confused me, the actual number was $6.4M LOL

369.8-363.4=6.4 xD

Time to go back and re-edit my post I guess

Guess you got confused and switched the 9 and 8 in the 369.8M number, and then I made the same mistake when you posted the 5.5M number.

Oh my Zod, you're right. You pin-pointed my mistake too. WTF is wrong with me. I have been doing the same mistake for over a day. Sorry for that.

 

[iEquinox]

Haha, no problem, I got a good laugh out of it. These last few posts were like an emotional rollercoaster of confusion. Maybe we should think about using a calculator :P

 

[Blitzkrieg]

Haha, no problem, I got a good laugh out of it. These last few posts were like an emotional rollercoaster of confusion. Maybe we should think about using a calculator :P

LOL. I'm laughing my stupidity here too. Boy, I was doing it wrong over the whole freakin' day. Like seriously, I typed 368.9 every time but I knew I was calculating off of 369.8.

 

[Greenlite]

I am here like

 

[Blitzkrieg]

I am here like

I'm here like

 

[iEquinox]

Taking a closer look at the numbers, maybe the low weekend drop isn't as surprising as it seems.
It looks like last weekend(3-day only of course) would have been significantly higher if there was no holiday last week:

• Last Friday was the smallest Friday increase for Wonder Woman(over 10% lower than the average increase for the previous Fridays)
• Looking at week on week drops it looks like last Friday and Saturday were smaller in particular, with both about 40% week on week drops.
• The only other days in Wonder Woman's run where it had a week on week drop of 40% or more were:
  -Drop from first Friday to second Friday(makes sense since the first Friday was helped a lot by Thursday previews.)
  -The Sunday after Father's Day
  -The Monday that was affected by the NBA game

All of those were outliers which were affected by outside factors. A significant amount of people who would have seen it last Friday/Saturday must have waited to see it on Monday/Tuesday, which lowered last weekends 3-day gross, while obviously increasing the 5-day gross.

It does seem to have taken a hit from Spider-Man on Friday, since it had a Friday increase of 48.8%, much lower than the average from all previous Friday increases(74.9%), and the lowest so far by quite a margin.

So that's why, after the lowest Thursday to Friday increase Wonder Woman has had so far(which would be the effect of Spider-Man), it's still on course for a very small 35.4% weekend drop.

All things considered, last weekend's drop seems to be much more impressive than we gave it credit for, we just didn't realise how good it was yet lol

 

[iEquinox]

Wonder Woman grossed an estimated $2.94M on Friday. 36-Day total stands at $361.59M.

https://***********/BORReport/status/883691066033033218

Slightly lower than the early deadline number, but if it follows the same internal multiplier deadline was predicting, it would still get $10.14M this weekend. (it would need +40% Saturday and -25% Sunday for that)

Looks like Spider-Man did affect the Friday number significantly as I explained in the previous post.

$10.14M would be a weekend drop of 35.4%.