Wonder Woman Box Office Speculation Thread - Part 5

[scotyb91]

It won't affect weekly grosses much. It mainly just changes the weekend/weekday distribution. So weekend drops will go a bit lower than they usually would if schools weren't starting up, while weekday drops get a bit bigger.

Let's say a movie would usually drop 30% from one week to the next and it gets 60% of its box office on the weekend each week with schools out. If many more schools are in session the next week, that could make it get 70% of its box office during the weekend that week.

That would mean that instead of 30% weekday drops and a 30% weekend drop, it gets a 18.3% weekend drop and a 47.5% weekday drop to maintain a 30% weekly drop

(The change won't be this extreme in one week btw, this is just a random example to show my point).

That's not bad! I figured it would find a way to balance itself out

 

[StormC]

Gitesh Pandya? @GiteshPandya
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Projected Top 5 Films of Summer 2017: #WonderWoman $408M, #GotGVol2 $390M, #SpiderManHomecoming $328M, #DespicableMe3 $261M, #Dunkirk $195M.

Neither here nor there, but I'd be very happy with 328M for Homecoming.

I think foreign is gonna cap out at 395M for WW until we get Japan.

 

[wonder213]

Gitesh Pandya? @GiteshPandya
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Projected Top 5 Films of Summer 2017: #WonderWoman $408M, #GotGVol2 $390M, #SpiderManHomecoming $328M, #DespicableMe3 $261M, #Dunkirk $195M.

I wonder if Spider-man: Homecoming will beat Wonder Woman worldwide. I hope not, but Spider-man is a well-known brand in China and Japan. SHC also features Iron Man and a young, diverse cast. Either way, WW2 will beat them all.

 

[wonder213]

Make that exceptionally well. I didn't expect it to zero in on 800M!

I think $400M+ international is beyond amazing since WW is little known outside of North America. She did have a well-received cameo in BvS last year - a $900M promo that introduced Gal Gadot's WW to the world.

Zack Snyder deserves a little credit for the film's success at the global box office, if you ask me.

 

[Kal_El_90]

Actuals: $2,286,334 (-31.6%) - $399,432,413

 

[Micromind]

I wonder if Spider-man: Homecoming will beat Wonder Woman worldwide. I hope not, but Spider-man is a well-known brand in China and Japan. SHC also features Iron Man and a young, diverse cast. Either way, WW2 will beat them all.

Spider-Man : Homecoming has a good chance of beating Wonder Woman worldwide.

Spider-Man is wildly popular superhero in both countries, but it will depend on how much it earns over there. Most people expect 100+ mil in China and 40+ mil. in Japan (Sony will market it like anything in Japan). So, adding a sum of 140+ mil will take it far above WW's worldwide collections.

But, there's always a chance of movie under-performing if SM: HC earns less than 80 mil in China and less than 30 mil. in Japan, anything's possible.

 

[StormC]

I wonder if Spider-man: Homecoming will beat Wonder Woman worldwide. I hope not, but Spider-man is a well-known brand in China and Japan. SHC also features Iron Man and a young, diverse cast. Either way, WW2 will beat them all.

It'll be close, but I think HC will take it. WW will have to do exceedingly well in its late legs and in Japan (410M DOM/25M JPN/830M WW) and HC would have to drop off quite a bit from projections (315M DOM/110M JPN+CH/820M WW) for WW to win. Realistically, Homecoming is looking at around 130M from both Japan and China, if not more and is projected to come close to 330M in the US. It's approaching 400M in foreign tickets without China and Japan. That could easily mean a total around 850M.

 

[SupermanFanboy]

If Wonder Woman can get close or Surpass 409 Million....She Would either Beat or fall just slightly short of CA CIVAL WAR domestically which is PHENOMENAL!! WW willing to come close to an Avengers 2.0 film is Mindblowing

 

[Blitzkrieg]

Wonder Woman's Global Weekend to Weekend drops:

OW - 103 million (DOM) + 125 million (OS) = 228 million (POTC5 2nd Weekend - 95.4 million)

2nd Weekend - 58.5 million (DOM) + 60 (OS) = 118.5 million (OW of The Mummy - 174 million) [-48%]

3rd Weekend - 41.2 million (DOM) + 40.3 million = 81.5 million (OW of Cars 3 - 75 million) [-31.2%]

4th Weekend - 24.9 million (DOM) + 21 million (OS) = 45.9 million (OW of TF5 - 242 million) [-43.7%]

5th Weekend - 15.7 million (DOM) + 13.6 million (OS) = 29.3 million (OW of DM3 - 171 million & 2nd Weekend of TF5 - 85 million) [-36.2%]

6th Weekend - 9.8 million (DOM) + 6.9 million ( OS) = 16.7 million (OW of SM:H - 257 million & 2nd Weekend of DM3 - 172 million) (2nd weekend of DM3 higher than the first due to the massive OW in China) [-43%]

7th Weekend - 6.8 million (DOM) + 3.7 million (OS) = 10.5 million (2nd Weekend of SM:H 117 million & OW of WOTPOTA - 102 million) [-37.1%]

8th Weekend – 4.6 million (DOM) + 1.9 million (OS) = 6.5 million (Dunkirk OW + SM:H 3rd Weekend) [38.1%]

9th Weekend – 3.3 million (DOM) + 1.2 million (OS) (Assuming 40% of the week total) = 4.5 million [30.7%]

10th Weekend – 2.3 million (DOM) + 0.4 million (OS) (Assuming 40% of the week total) = 2.7 million [40%]

Not a single drop in excess of 45% apart from the 2nd weekend. What a breath taking run all over the world. Go Diana

 

[Blitzkrieg]

^^ The 9th OS weekend figure doesn't sound right. It has to be lower than that for sure. I'm basically guessing the 9th and 10th weekend numbers from OS territories. I think the rest are fairly accurate. I hope iEquinox can verify it and point out if there's any mistake in that analysis above.

 

[iEquinox]

^^ The 9th OS weekend figure doesn't sound right. It has to be lower than that for sure. I'm basically guessing the 9th and 10th weekend numbers from OS territories. I think the rest are fairly accurate. I hope iEquinox can verify it and point out if there's any mistake in that analysis above.

Yes I can
Here's the exact numbers, there were a few wrong ones:

Wonder Woman's Global Weekend to Weekend drops:

OW - 103.3 million (DOM) + 125 million (OS) = 228.3 million (POTC5 2nd Weekend - 101.2 million)

2nd Weekend - 58.5 million (DOM) + 60 (OS) = 118.5 million (OW of The Mummy - 172.4 million) [-48.1%]

3rd Weekend - 41.3 million (DOM) + 40.3 million = 81.6 million (OW of Cars 3 - 75 million) [-31.2%]

4th Weekend - 24.9 million (DOM) + 21.7 million (OS) = 46.6 million (OW of TF5 - 243.9 million) [-42.9%]

5th Weekend - 15.7 million (DOM) + 15.5 million (OS) = 31.2 million (OW of DM3 - 168 million & 2nd Weekend of TF5 - 86.7 million) [-33.0%]

6th Weekend - 9.8 million (DOM) + 6.9 million ( OS) = 16.7 million (OW of SM:H - 256.5 million & 2nd Weekend of DM3 - 170.3 million) (2nd weekend of DM3 higher than the first due to the massive OW in China) [-46.4%]

7th Weekend - 6.8 million (DOM) + 3.7 million (OS) = 10.5 million (2nd Weekend of SM:H 115.4 million & OW of WOTPOTA - 100.5 million) [-37.2%]

8th Weekend – 4.6 million (DOM) + 1.9 million (OS) = 6.5 million (Dunkirk OW + SM:H 3rd Weekend) [38.0%]

9th Weekend – 3.3 million (DOM) + 1 million (OS) = 4.3 million [33.3%]

10th Weekend – 2.3 million (DOM) + 0.4 million (OS) (Assuming 40% of the week total) = 2.7 million [38.1%]

It dropped over 45% on both the 2nd and the 6th weekend. After those 2 weekends, weekend 4 was the only weekend where it dropped 40% or more.

 

[Greenlite]

I wonder if Spider-man: Homecoming will beat Wonder Woman worldwide. I hope not, but Spider-man is a well-known brand in China and Japan. SHC also features Iron Man and a young, diverse cast. Either way, WW2 will beat them all.

Some Spider fans at their thread expected 1B so they had a meltdown in the 2nd weekend, it was quite a funny read.

Realistically it should make around 850-900M, I am surprised that it's likely to go under 900, imagine the meltdown if it finished under BvS lol.

WW has no shame in finishing under Spidey WW, 800+ on the first outing is phenomenal.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

Yes I can

Here's the exact numbers

there were a few wrong ones:

Wonder Woman's Global Weekend to Weekend drops:

OW - 103.3 million (DOM) + 125 million (OS) = 228.3 million (POTC5 2nd Weekend - 101.2 million)

2nd Weekend - 58.5 million (DOM) + 60 (OS) = 118.5 million (OW of The Mummy - 172.4 million) [-48.1%]

3rd Weekend - 41.3 million (DOM) + 40.3 million = 81.6 million (OW of Cars 3 - 75 million) [-31.2%]

4th Weekend - 24.9 million (DOM) + 21.7 million (OS) = 46.6 million (OW of TF5 - 243.9 million) [-42.9%]

5th Weekend - 15.7 million (DOM) + 15.5 million (OS) = 31.2 million (OW of DM3 - 168 million & 2nd Weekend of TF5 - 86.7 million) [-33.0%]

6th Weekend - 9.8 million (DOM) + 6.9 million ( OS) = 16.7 million (OW of SM:H - 256.5 million & 2nd Weekend of DM3 - 170.3 million) (2nd weekend of DM3 higher than the first due to the massive OW in China) [-46.4%]

7th Weekend - 6.8 million (DOM) + 3.7 million (OS) = 10.5 million (2nd Weekend of SM:H 115.4 million & OW of WOTPOTA - 100.5 million) [-37.2%]

8th Weekend – 4.6 million (DOM) + 1.9 million (OS) = 6.5 million (Dunkirk OW + SM:H 3rd Weekend) [38.0%]

9th Weekend – 3.3 million (DOM) + 1 million (OS) = 4.3 million [33.3%]

10th Weekend – 2.3 million (DOM) + 0.4 million (OS) (Assuming 40% of the week total) = 2.7 million [38.1%]

Nice. I had no clue about the 9th and 10th weekend (OS) actuals.

It dropped over 45% on both the 2nd and the 6th weekend.

About the whole deal with accurate BO numbers

 

[iEquinox]

Nice. I had no clue about the 9th and 10th weekend (OS) actuals.

The 10th OS weekend actual has not been published yet, so that's why I left your comment that said "assuming 40% of the week total" in there. We don't actually know how much it really made on the 10th OS weekend.

The 9th one is up on boxofficemojo though.

 

[Dark Raven]

So has it passed $400m yet? Or are we still waiting on that?

About the whole deal with accurate BO numbers

Here's TJ Hooker to teach you

Shame the poster isn't here to lend his insight.

 

[iEquinox]

So has it passed $400m yet? Or are we still waiting on that?

Should pass $400M today (Tuesday), but we won't have Tuesday numbers for at least 24 hours so it will take a while before it's official.

 

[Iceman]

This time tomorrow we can see it in print officially!

 

[Blitzkrieg]

The 10th OS weekend actual has not been published yet, so that's why I left your comment that said "assuming 40% of the week total" in there. We don't actually know how much it really made on the 10th OS weekend.

Oh, 0k.

The 9th one is up on boxofficemojo though.

I don't know how to see the OS weekend figures. I didn't even know there is a weekend breakdown feature on BOM.

 

[iEquinox]

I don't know how to see the OS weekend figures. I didn't even know there is a weekend breakdown feature on BOM.

If you click on the foreign tab, you can select "by weekend" for OS weekend numbers.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=intl&view=byweekend&id=wonderwoman.htm

Click on the dates to see the weekend number. But the dates are wrong, they're all 1 week off(it's the same for every movie on boxofficemojo btw, not just Wonder Woman). So for example last weekend is listed as Jul. 28–30 instead of Aug 4-6. They have a few individual markets for last weekend, but no total number yet.

 

[scotyb91]

So has it passed $400m yet? Or are we still waiting on that?



Here's TJ Hooker to teach you

Shame the poster isn't here to lend his insight.

We should wait until the actuals come out to celebrate.

Yes, such a shame.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

If you click on the foreign tab, you can select "by weekend" for OS weekend numbers.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=intl&view=byweekend&id=wonderwoman.htm

Click on the dates to see the weekend number. But the dates are wrong, they're all 1 week off(it's the same for every movie on boxofficemojo btw, not just Wonder Woman). So for example last weekend is listed as Jul. 28–30 instead of Aug 4-6. They have a few individual markets for last weekend, but no total number yet.

Yeah, I was checking the link without seeing the later part of your post. I was scratching my head at the July (28-30) figure. BOM screwed up. LOL.

 

[scotyb91]

Wednesday will be the official day it rains joy and elation all over our face, neck, and chest!

 

[Dark Raven]

Wednesday will be the official day it rains joy and elation all over our face, neck, and chest!

We're waiting for the day when Wonder Woman finally becomes the Iron Man of the DCEU

Or maybe she already is?

 

[scotyb91]

We're waiting for the day when Wonder Woman finally becomes the Iron Man of the DCEU

Or maybe she already is?

Looks like he's taking the fire all over his face, neck, and chest

 

[Blitzkrieg]

https://twitter.com/BORReport/status/894924423974617088

BoxOfficeReport.com
@BORReport

Wonder Woman grossed an estimated $395K on Monday. 67-Day total stands at $399.83M.