Wonder Woman Box Office Speculation Thread - Part 3

Discussion in 'Wonder Woman' started by Thread Manager, Jun 20, 2017.

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  1. Greenlite Registered

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    She has a shot of becoming the biggest superhero "solo" movie that's not Batman, period :woot:

    Margot's pregnant so might have to wait till at least 2019 for GCS. :csad: or :woot: for Margot

    I know right?

    PS IE's prediction was quite incredible lol, is he from the future?
     
  2. scotyb91 Registered

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    If she can average 35% holds for the rest of the weekends and weekdays for roughly 10 plus more weeks, then she'll be able to reach $400M domestically :). But thats a big if lol.
     
  3. Flemm Registered

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    Not sure about your math there.

    Hunger Games got there after week 12, Wonder Woman has almost caught up in terms of the raw number, and it's been ahead by a lot since week 2 (in terms of the weekly gross).
     
    #953 Flemm, Jul 9, 2017
    Last edited: Jul 9, 2017
  4. regnak Registered

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    Really? BvS did $7 Million in the UAE, $14M in Indonesia and $5.4 million in Turkey. Something is going on there. of course in Turkey it is more their great leader Erdogan. A year of two back he gave a speech about how women should not laugh. WW is lucky not to have been banned there too.


    http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=intl&id=superman2015.htm
     
  5. StormC Custom User Title?

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    [​IMG]
     
  6. Greenlite Registered

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    She has a shot at passing that if she reaches 400M before August ends and is dropping by 1/3 per week/weekend :cwink:
     
  7. Greenlite Registered

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    My friend who visited there said he told the public what bread to eat :loco:
     
  8. scotyb91 Registered

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    I calculated 35% drops each weekday and weekend and got $400M in a matter of 16 weeks. It seemed right, but, like you suggested, it's probably way off lol. If you can or have time, I'd like to compare your math to mine. I dont mind being wrong :).
     
  9. scotyb91 Registered

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    I calculated 35% drops each weekday and weekend and got $400M in a matter of 16 weeks. It seemed right, but, like you suggested, it's probably way off lol. If you can or have time, I'd like to compare your math to mine. I dont mind being wrong :).
     
  10. iEquinox Registered

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    Yeah your math is off.
    Let's say Wonder Woman makes $5.5M in the next weekdays. (Avoiding using last weekdays because they were inflated a lot by the holiday)

    If the weekend estimate holds that would put Wonder Woman at $374.3M after Thursday, after a week total of $15.635M

    Total after n amount of weeks with 35% drop then be equal to:
    374.3+(15.635*0.65)*((1-(0.65^n))/(0.35))

    If n=5, that gives it pretty much exactly $400M. So that would take about 5 weeks after Thursday, not 16. 16 more weeks with 35% drop would give it $403.3M.
     
    #960 iEquinox, Jul 9, 2017
    Last edited: Jul 9, 2017
  11. scotyb91 Registered

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    Thank you so much for showing me the math. Like I've said before, you're the master (I am paraphrasing a tad lol). Also, I should have worded my post differently because I meant 16 weeks total, not 16 more weeks after Thursday lol. My apologies for the confusion.

    My 35% drops were measured from a $15.1M 6th week total, which is probably why my math is different from yours. But, I like your math more than mine haha.
     
  12. iEquinox Registered

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    Changed mine to $15.635M for a $5.5M weekdays, I realized that my initial guess seemed a bit too high.

    But with $15.1 this week it would still reach $400M at day one of week 12 of release :p
     
  13. Greenlite Registered

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    Do you think it has a shot at 410M? :oldrazz:
     
  14. scotyb91 Registered

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    I like the sound of that :)
     
  15. iEquinox Registered

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    It would need about $41M more after this weekend to get there. That would be a 5.07x multiplier off the 6th weekend. That would be very hard to achieve, although not impossible. Guardians of the Galaxy(by far the leggiest MCU movie(3.53x multiplier)) managed a 4.71x multiplier off its 6th weekend, while The Avengers even managed a 5.53x multiplier(but it needed the help of a big Labor Day expansion to get there).

    Since this multiplier has been achieved before, we have to conclude that there is at least a chance. But it would need some insane late legs to get there. The Avengers needed a big Labor Day expansion to get there, and GotG had pretty much no competition and really strong legs and still couldn't get there. So it has a shot, although it looks like it's a very long shot.
     
  16. Greenlite Registered

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    Thanks

    It has the Thanksgiving holidays :oldrazz:

    #coexistwithJL
     
  17. gerrym51 Registered

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    I'd say it has a chance to make 400 million in North America and a chance to make 400 million overseas.

    either way or both it will be very close.
     
  18. mclay18 Registered

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    I'm pretty sure they will announce release dates at Comic Con for The Batman and Wonder Woman 2, but from the way Geoff Johns & Patty are talking, they are working on a script treatment and/or putting sequel ideas together. I imagine WB is starting negotiations with Patty for WW2, sign off on a deal, and then bring her out at Comic-Con with a release date.

    That indicates to me that WB wants WW2 ready for June or November 2019. Aquaman came together quickly after Johns & James Wan nailed the script treatment and rehired Will Beall to write the screenplay.
     
  19. UncleSam1776 Registered

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    WB doesn't typically use Comic-Con to announce movies or release dates for DC. The last announcement they made at Comic-Con was in 2013 when they announced BvS.
     
  20. Micromind New World New Rules

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    Isn't WW already the biggest 'solo' superhero origin movie ?

    Which superhero Origin movie earned more than Wonder Woman ?
     
    #970 Micromind, Jul 9, 2017
    Last edited: Jul 9, 2017
  21. -Arya- World’s Strangest Heroes

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    It's second only to Rami's original Spiderman domestically. It beat out Deadpool.
     
  22. Greenlite Registered

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    solo superhero movie including origins and sequels :cwink:

    Yup, and only behind Batman (TDK, TDKR) and Iron Man 3 if it gets passed Spidey (403M?)
     
  23. iEquinox Registered

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    Boxofficemojo updated the foreign number, weekend was $6.9M according to boxofficemojo. So that's a 55.5% drop from last weekend. The weekdays did end up a bit higher than estimated though. OS total is now $377.1M.

    That's the biggest foreign weekend drop so far but I guess that's not surprising given the competition this weekend; both Spider-Man and DM3 made about $140M OS.
     
  24. Marathon Registered

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    The overseas drop was harsher than preferable, but hopefully the drops will be softer from hereon out.
     
  25. Flemm Registered

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    Apes is not a lightweight overseas either. If WW gets to 400/400, it will certainly have earned it against a laundry list of established franchises.
     
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