Wonder Woman Box Office Speculation Thread - Part 3

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The weekend actuals are in and Wonder Woman was right on the money with 10.16 million (-35%). What a beautiful run.

The obligatory legs gif :D :D

Legs_2.gif
 
Domestically it was a little bit lower than estimated with a $9,822,105 weekend (37.5% drop)
 
It's only a couple hundred thousand. What difference does it really make. It's still at $745mil. I think it can claw it's way to $800m, if only so I can be right for this poll up top. ;)
 
:( can it still reach $400m

It's a much lower drop than anyone would have expected for this weekend, and basically in line with what we've seen previously.

So, yes, it can get there, but it will still be interesting to follow in the next few weeks. I think it's going to get there, but the question will be whether it crosses 400M fairly easily or needs to creep over the line around Labor Day.

It's still possible that it could drop harder in the next few weeks, but it doesn't really seem likely, after what we've seen recently.
 
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The weekend actuals are in and Wonder Woman was right on the money with 10.16 million (-35%). What a beautiful run.

The obligatory legs gif :D :D

Legs_2.gif

:hmr:

I think that's a different legs gif to the normal one we have. But it's entirely fitting for this thread.
 
It's going to hang around cinemas like a bad smell and keep making more.
 
'Wonder Woman' Box Office: Nevertheless, She Persisted

https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottm...fice-nevertheless-she-persisted/#3498c1dd3f62

Why yes, you’re getting another Wonder Woman update this 7 am. If you’re tired of these updates, please come back in one or two hours (maybe two as I’m taking the kids to camp this morning) for at least two unrelated articles. I’m sure I’ll eventually run out of gas on this subject, but traffic indicates a genuine interest and my kids are worth it, dammit. Anyway…

As you know, Warner Bros./Time Warner Inc.'s Wonder Woman passed a number of milestones yesterday. First, with $747 million worldwide, it is officially past the $745m worldwide gross of Suicide Squad. Now, to be fair, the supervillain caper didn’t play in China, while the Gal Gadot adventure earned over $90m in that territory. But no matter, Wonder Woman is the biggest DCEU/DC Films earner in North America and the second-biggest behind Batman v Superman’s $873m worldwide take.

The film has done so well, especially in North America, that I may have to pen a “Justice League doesn’t have to top Wonder Woman to be a hit” post in a few months. Having passed the domestic total of Deadpool ($363 million sans 3D and with an R-rating), it is the second-highest grossing comic book superhero movie ever without Batman, Iron Man or Spider-Man. And with a running total now ahead of Walt Disney and Marvel's Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 ($368.7m versus $366m), Wonder Woman is all-but-sure to best the Marvel sequel to become the biggest domestic earner of the summer.

Heck, if it tops $410 million domestic, ahead of Spider-Man ($403m in 2002) and Iron Man 3 ($409m in 2013), it’ll be the third-biggest solo superhero movie ever behind Chris Nolan’s Dark Knight sequels. Now that’s no guarantee, as right now we seem to be looking at a $390m domestic total. But here’s the thing about the movie. It has continuously moved the goal post every day of its domestic release, from its $103.251m opening weekend (a whopping 2.71x multiplier, larger than any MCU movie) to its contentiously small weekend-to-weekend drops over the last six weeks.

The Patty Jenkins pic fell 43% in its second weekend, the smallest such drop for a major comic book superhero film since Sony's Spider-Man back in 2002. It fell 29% in weekend three, the third-smallest third-weekend drop for a $100m+ opener behind The Jungle Book and Rogue One: A Star Wars Story. In weekend four, confronted with Paramount/Viacom Inc.'s Transformers: The Last Knight, it fell 39% and then just 36% (over the holiday) in weekend five despite dealing with Universal/Comcast Corp.'s Despicable Me 3 and losing 529 theaters. This weekend, even with Sony's Spider-Man: Homecoming doing its thing (and another 313-theater drop), it fell 37%.

It has now earned a 3.56x multiplier, which is already the fifth leggiest $100 million+ opener ever, behind Finding Dory ($486m/$135m = 3.6), Toy Story 3 ($415 million/$110m = 3.77), Star Wars: The Force Awakens ($936.6m/$247.9m = 3.78x) and Shrek 2 ($441m/$108m = 4.1x). And DreamWorks Animation's Shrek 2 opened with $21m via its Wed/Thurs pre-weekend launch. So once Wonder Woman gets to $392m, it’ll be the second-leggiest $100m+ opener and the leggiest that opened on a Friday. It’s certainly the leggiest comic book superhero movie that didn’t open on a Wednesday (or Tuesday) by a mile since Blade back in 1998.

Legs_2.gif


As to whether it gets past Spider-Man or Iron Man 3 notwithstanding), it’s closer than I would have guessed even a week or two ago. Its $9.8 million sixth weekend was just behind Spider-Man and way ahead of Iron Man 3 ($10.3 million and $5.73m respectively) but with a larger drop (-28% and -31%) and a smaller 38-day total ($370m and $394m). Iron Man 3 wasn’t the leggiest blockbuster of our age, so it was essentially done by end of its second month. Spider-Man had another $33m to go, which if Wonder Woman follows suit puts it over/under $402m.

So, yeah, the fact that we’re even talking about a $410 million total is a measure of its sheer staying power. Wonder Woman has not only been incredibly leggy throughout its run, but it has maintained these legs no matter the obstacle. Losing screens? Facing off against summer biggies? Facing off against kid-friendly summer biggies that are good or great? It doesn’t matter, the DC Films picture has acted as if other movies weren’t even in the marketplace. To use a recent political rallying cry, Wonder Woman has persisted no matter the variables.
 
Weekend actual was $9.8 million, so just a skosh below yesterday's projections. $368,473,296 domestic total now
 
Japan will rake in 100-200M for a possible grand total of...

ONE BILLION DOLLARS

Highest worldwide DCEU film confirmed. :sly:
 
I think Spider-Man: Homecoming was the biggest hurdle to cross. If SM:H didn't affect the box office, I don't think War for the Planet of the Apes or Dunkirk will either, other than maybe losing some more theaters.
I think at this point in time people are going to see Wonder Woman, not a comic book movie or an action movie. So what else is playing is irrelevant at this point in time.
 
Did he really just say: "Now that’s no guarantee, as right now we seem to be looking at a $390m domestic total."

That's ridiculous. Even if it gets a 6th weekend multiplier worse than any MCU or DCEU movie except for BvS, it would make more than $390M. Not sure why he's expecting one of the the leggiest superhero movies of all time to suddenly become one of the most frontloaded ones after this weekend.
 
Did he really just say: "Now that’s no guarantee, as right now we seem to be looking at a $390m domestic total."

That's ridiculous. Even if it gets a 6th weekend multiplier worse than any MCU or DCEU movie except for BvS, it would make more than $390M. Not sure why he's expecting one of the the leggiest superhero movies of all time to suddenly become one of the most frontloaded ones after this weekend.

Here's the full quote

Heck, if it tops $410 million domestic, ahead of Spider-Man ($403m in 2002) and Iron Man 3 ($409m in 2013), it’ll be the third-biggest solo superhero movie ever behind Chris Nolan’s Dark Knight sequels. Now that’s no guarantee, as right now we seem to be looking at a $390m domestic total.

He said there's no guarantee to top IM3 and SM, as it's looking at 390M, if you mean WW is making way more than 390M, then ya he's low-balling it so he can report the good news in a couple of weeks lol.

The fact he's even bringing up IM3 shows he's low-balling WW by saying 390M =P
 
I think Spider-Man: Homecoming was the biggest hurdle to cross. If SM:H didn't affect the box office, I don't think War for the Planet of the Apes or Dunkirk will either, other than maybe losing some more theaters.
I think at this point in time people are going to see Wonder Woman, not a comic book movie or an action movie. So what else is playing is irrelevant at this point in time.
It looks like Spider-Man actually had a pretty noticeable effect on Wonder Woman this weekend.

Seems like Scott has joined my campaign to upend Spidey and Stark :cwink:

and China has 90M now? Looking good for 100M =D
100M in China is extremely unlikely. It made about $45,000 there this weekend(and it actually hasn't passed $90M in China, not sure where he got that one from), and I don't think a 222x multiplier is happening :p
Here's the full quote



He said there's no guarantee to top IM3 and SM, as it's looking at 390M, if you mean WW is making way more than 390M, then ya he's low-balling it so he can report the good news in a couple of weeks lol.

The fact he's even bringing up IM3 shows he's low-balling WW by saying 390M =P
Yes, he said "it's looking at 390M", so he's saying $390M is currently the most likely final total. But that's obviously not true lol
 
It looks like Spider-Man actually had a pretty noticeable effect on Wonder Woman this weekend.


100M in China is extremely unlikely. It made about $45,000 there this weekend(and it actually hasn't passed $90M in China, not sure where he got that one from), and I don't think a 222x multiplier is happening :p

Yes, he said "it's looking at 390M", so he's saying $390M is currently the most likely final total. But that's obviously not true lol

Lol you're right I checked the score - WW as of today at $607.242M RMB=89.278M USD, crawling towards 90M

Scott just likes to move goal posts :cwink:
 
To be fair the likes of the Merc and Guardians should be proud to even be in the same ballpark. If they had both turned out to be forgettable movies with nonexistent box offices it would only have been as surprising as how well they actually did.
 
It looks like Spider-Man actually had a pretty noticeable effect on Wonder Woman this weekend.

Not really. I predicted last week Wonder Woman would make around $9 million this weekend, based on each weekend Wonder Woman's week-end box office drops around 35%. And this weekend Wonder Woman had
a 37.5% drop as compared to the 36.9% last weekend. And Wonder Woman made $9.8 million this weekend. Actually more than I predicted. So where is the noticeable effect?
 
Not really. I predicted last week Wonder Woman would make around $9 million this weekend, based on each weekend Wonder Woman's week-end box office drops around 35%. And this weekend Wonder Woman had
a 37.5% drop as compared to the 36.9% last weekend. And Wonder Woman made $9.8 million this weekend. Actually more than I predicted. So where is the noticeable effect?
I explained it in this post(keep in mind that "last weekend" means 2 weekends ago(before July 4th) in this post):
Taking a closer look at the numbers, maybe the low weekend drop isn't as surprising as it seems.
It looks like last weekend(3-day only of course) would have been significantly higher if there was no holiday last week:

  • Last Friday was the smallest Friday increase for Wonder Woman(over 10% lower than the average increase for the previous Fridays)
  • Looking at week on week drops it looks like last Friday and Saturday were smaller in particular, with both about 40% week on week drops.
  • The only other days in Wonder Woman's run where it had a week on week drop of 40% or more were:
    -Drop from first Friday to second Friday(makes sense since the first Friday was helped a lot by Thursday previews.)
    -The Sunday after Father's Day
    -The Monday that was affected by the NBA game
All of those were outliers which were affected by outside factors. A significant amount of people who would have seen it last Friday/Saturday must have waited to see it on Monday/Tuesday, which lowered last weekends 3-day gross, while obviously increasing the 5-day gross.

It does seem to have taken a hit from Spider-Man on Friday, since it had a Friday increase of 51.5%, much lower than the average from all previous Friday increases(74.9%), and the lowest so far by quite a margin.

So that's why, after the lowest Thursday to Friday increase Wonder Woman has had so far(which would be the effect of Spider-Man), it's still on course for a small 37.5% weekend drop.

All things considered, last weekend's drop seems to be much more impressive than we gave it credit for, we just didn't realise how good it was yet lol

Also, it looks like Gitesh saw this coming before the holiday weekend:
Gitesh Pandya said:
Given the holiday calendar this yr, we have to be patient w/ #boxoffice this wknd. Many have MON/TUE off & will eventually see movies.
https://***********/GiteshPandya/status/881180895302045697
 
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Wonder Woman will lose theaters to Dunkirk next week...
So? Every movie loses theaters pretty much every week in its run at this stage. Losing theaters is already accounted for when comparing to other movies since they all lost theaters every week as well. Losing a few theaters won't suddenly make it end up below $390M.

And why are you mentioning Dunkirk specifically?
 
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