Apocalypse X-Men: Apocalypse Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[RLAAMJR.]

So excited for the numbers.

 

[Superhero 101]

I am changing my forecast to 110 4 day weekend

 

[RLAAMJR.]

I am changing my forecast to 110 4 day weekend

What was your previous forecast?

 

[marvelmadness13]

I'm still thinking it's gonna be close to Boxoffice Pro's estimates, 95 million 4 day OW and 190 million domestic total.

 

[Superhero 101]

what was your previous forecast?

130

 

[superweirdo87]

This had the worst opening for any X-Men movie ever in Paris. Now, there might be small samples involved there. But, not a favorable sign.

I say 125 total domestic, 370 foreign, and 500 altogether.

With BvS, it makes a profit through ancillary sources of revenue. See Deadline:
http://deadline.com/2016/03/batman-v-superman-opening-weekend-box-office-records-1201726300/

 

[DarthSkywalker]

This had the worst opening for any X-Men movie ever in Paris. Now, there might be small samples involved there. But, not a favorable sign.

I say 125 total domestic, 370 foreign, and 500 altogether.

With BvS, it makes a profit through ancillary sources of revenue. See Deadline:
http://deadline.com/2016/03/batman-v-superman-opening-weekend-box-office-records-1201726300/

There is like zero chance it only makes 125m domestically. If we are being realistic, the floor should be around 170m.

 

[Tacit Ronin]

It's gonna make a killing overseas. They love their destruction porn.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

It's gonna make a killing overseas. They love their destruction porn.

A killing? I don't know. X-Men doesn't travel that well.

 

[superweirdo87]

It's gonna make a killing overseas. They love their destruction porn.

I think X-Men may be stronger overseas than here. But, a killing is unlikely. Man of Steel got beaten by the Winter Soldier abroad so I don't know if their affinity for destruction is going to save this movie.

And, in early Paris numbers, Apocalypse fared worse than the Wolverine. I think under 170 is probable.

 

[RLAAMJR.]

130

what? You're lowering it down?

 

[RLAAMJR.]

There is like zero chance it only makes 125m domestically. If we are being realistic, the floor should be around 170m.

I agree. 125 million?!?!!?!? Really????

 

[kevork89]

I still think this will do pretty much DoFP numbers. Maybe a bit less in domestic but same or more international.

 

[RLAAMJR.]

I still think this will do pretty much DoFP numbers. Maybe a bit less in domestic but same or more international.

That sounds better.

 

[bholliday]

I'm betting $690 WW at the absolute top end of the spectrum. I don't feel joe public will enjoy this one and word of mouth + critical reception will sting.

 

[GuestStar2004]

they really should have released this movie around the same time everywhere rather then a week before in some places

 

[SAUspartan]

From Hollywood Reporter.


MAY 27
X-Men: Apocalypse (Fox)
Bryan Singer's fourth X-Men offering is tracking great but is getting poor reviews compared to his 2014 film Days of Future Past ($747.9M).

 

[kevork89]

they really should have released this movie around the same time everywhere rather then a week before in some places

It happened with CW and BvS too. They're releasing things a week earlier in international markets a lot lately. We got Deadpool a week earlier here in Aus too.

 

[FilmNerdJamie]

From Hollywood Reporter.


MAY 27
X-Men: Apocalypse (Fox)
Bryan Singer's fourth X-Men offering is tracking great but is getting poor reviews compared to his 2014 film Days of Future Past ($747.9M).

Can't see it opening as high as Days of Future Past. No novelty (nothing we haven't seen before in either an X-Men film or the superhero genre in general) and it's relying entirely on the First Class cast again. As much as I love them... they threw in the original cast into the mix for a (commercial) reason.

Figure a 4-day in the U.S. around.. $90M-$100M, maybe as low as $85M and $200M tops as best case scenario. Worldwide around $500M-$600M. Fine numbers. Fox will not sneeze at that.

 

[marvelrobbins]

Can't see it opening as high as Days of Future Past. No novelty (nothing we haven't seen before in either an X-Men film or the superhero genre in general) and it's relying entirely on the First Class cast again. As much as I love them... they threw in the original cast into the mix for a (commercial) reason.

Figure a 4-day in the U.S. around.. $90M-$100M, maybe as low as $85M and $200M tops as best case scenario. Worldwide around $500M-$600M. Fine numbers. Fox will not sneeze at that.

Grossing 500-600 million ww would be considered a disappointment when
you consider film has 234 million budget.and when you consider what DOFP
did.

 

[FilmNerdJamie]

Grossing 500-600 million ww would be considered a disappointment when
you consider film has 234 million budget.and when you consider what DOFP
did.

No it wouldn't. You're comparing the last film's grosses which was abnormally high from the series' standard, and they know this. They're fully aware that was the novelty of both casts together and, more importantly, a proper X-Men 4. Like The Fast & the Furious 4 after Tokyo Drift (which fans swear is the best and their favorite one... even though they didn't show up and it tanked commercially/critically) and then going back to the latter cast again after the box-office boost. They know what to expect and have their own estimations of success or disappointment.

As long as this stays in the same arena overseas as Days of Future Past, Fox is happy. Why do you think they were pleased with The Wolverine's numbers when it was such a disappointment stateside?

 

[marvelrobbins]

No it wouldn't. You're comparing the last film's grosses which was abnormally high from the series' standard, and they know this.

As long as this stays in the same arena overseas as Days of Future Past, Fox is happy. Why do you think they were pleased with The Wolverine's numbers when it was such a disappointment stateside?

The wolverine cost a lot less.fox did terrable job of promating it and it grow
onverseas from origins.

while i am seeing postive reaction on twitter to apocalypse plenty here are trashing it.So i really don't how that is going to affect box office.

 

[psylockolussus]

Can't see it opening as high as Days of Future Past. No novelty (nothing we haven't seen before in either an X-Men film or the superhero genre in general) and it's relying entirely on the First Class cast again. As much as I love them... they threw in the original cast into the mix for a (commercial) reason.

It would be quite disappointing if doesn't open higher than DOFP. I just think X-Men had the momentum back when they brought back the original cast and then the movie turned out to be great. But here, not only its just the First Class cast and a bunch of new actors to the series, its getting mixed reviews which makes it really bad compare to DOFP.

 

[MadVillainy]

What was the budget for this again

 

[FilmNerdJamie]

What was the budget for this again

Officially listed budgets are BS. Never take them to heart. Ever.