Apocalypse X-Men: Apocalypse Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[RLAAMJR.]

I still think the movie will do well.

 

[superweirdo87]

Not usually. But, according to heroic hollywood, the tracking did not fall after the reviews were out. And Fox may have wanted more awareness of the movie, even if mixed or negative.

The French numbers are very discouraging. And admissions are down 29% in Hong Kong, though higher prices and IMAX might help a bit.

Things are looking quite bad.

 

[Electrix]

Days of Future Past had more going for it hype-wise. Lower numbers are to be expected.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I still think the movie will do well.

Based on?

 

[Electrix]

Based on?

Past performance of the franchise. No flops.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Past performance of the franchise. No flops.

This movie doesn't need to flop to not do well. If this comes in under $700m, heck under DoFP total, that is a problem. A real one. Especially if the domestic total is around $200m.

 

[superweirdo87]

This movie doesn't need to flop to not do well. If this comes in under $700m, heck under DoFP total, that is a problem. A real one. Especially if the domestic total is around $200m.

It is very unlikely, it will do as much as Days of Future Past.

I think the best Fox can hope for is that it is a decent year for the portfolio with Deadpool.

If X-Men grosses in the 500s and added to Deadpool, that is not *so* bad for the portfolio.

But the outlook is not good for this movie.

 

[Electrix]

This movie doesn't need to flop to not do well. If this comes in under $700m, heck under DoFP total, that is a problem. A real one. Especially if the domestic total is around $200m.

Fox will have their own expectations. Days of Future Past was a big team-up movie with nostalgia, and interesting plot, and giant robots. It could easily be the peak box office-wise.

Apocalypse is a different animal. Less familiar faces amongst the cast. Big on action but a familiar end of the world plot. More competition, and coming after 2 big superhero movies in the space of 2 months.

Will it make less than DoFP? Maybe. Anything above $500-600 million is fine. Nothing amazing, but fine.

 

[marvelrobbins]

it will be Intresting to see if DOFP's populary help apocalypse at box office the way x2 helped Last stand.

If apocalypse could hit 200 million domesticly and 700 million WW that would
be a success for them.yeah less than DOFP but still a success.but if under 200 million domesticly and in 600 million range ww some will be calling it a
failure.

 

[Electrix]

The Avengers: AoU made less than The Avengers. Franchises are allowed dips. It's all about timing, marketing, and the end product really.

 

[superweirdo87]

The thing about "fine" here is that involves losses. The movie needs to make 700M to break even when *all* sources of revenue are taken into consideration.

235 budget
145 marketing
60 residuals/interest/off-the-tops/overhead
70 participations
75 home entertainment costs

--------------------------------------------------------------
520 works out to like 440 in revenues

That is a 150 million dollar loss.

 

[Electrix]

The thing about "fine" here is that involves losses. The movie needs to make 700M to break even when *all* sources of revenue are taken into consideration.

235 budget
145 marketing
60 residuals/interest/off-the-tops/overhead
70 participations
75 home entertainment costs

--------------------------------------------------------------
520 works out to like 440 in revenues

That is a 150 million dollar loss.

Where are you getting these figures from?

 

[JP]

His butt, probably.

 

[superweirdo87]

I am working from Deadline. See their work on profits at the end of the year. I am guessing costs based on Days of Future Past's deadline analysis and Ant-Man had 439 revenues with 519 box office.

 

[Iceman]

The Avengers: AoU made less than The Avengers. Franchises are allowed dips. It's all about timing, marketing, and the end product really.

Dipping doesn't matter when the base is super-high. More of a problem when you're getting closer to break even.

 

[marvelrobbins]

I have heard 234 million figure on the budget so assuming that is right it needs ww
468 million to just break even.

 

[marvelrobbins]

The Avengers: AoU made less than The Avengers. Franchises are allowed dips. It's all about timing, marketing, and the end product really.

people aren't rooting for avengers to fail.some are for X-men.

 

[superweirdo87]

I would say that 630 to 650 would be okay. But this movie might be looking at a number lower than what most analysts were expecting.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Fox will have their own expectations. Days of Future Past was a big team-up movie with nostalgia, and interesting plot, and giant robots. It could easily be the peak box office-wise.

Apocalypse is a different animal. Less familiar faces amongst the cast. Big on action but a familiar end of the world plot. More competition, and coming after 2 big superhero movies in the space of 2 months.

Will it make less than DoFP? Maybe. Anything above $500-600 million is fine. Nothing amazing, but fine.

And there expectations are for it to do more then DoFP.

How does this movie have more competition then DoFP?

And no it isn't. What are you basing that on? This movie cost over $200m to make. At least another $100m in advertising.

 

[Iceman]

Breaking even (or making only a small profit) is a fail too. Would be easier to put the money in the bank and make a much safer small return while keeping funds liquid. t:

 

[superweirdo87]

But, marketing is expensive, and there's interest, gross points players, overhead, and home entertainment costs.

Also, China only gives studios a 25% cut and other overseas players are like a 40% cut of the grosses.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

The Avengers: AoU made less than The Avengers. Franchises are allowed dips. It's all about timing, marketing, and the end product really.

People lost their jobs for that. Feige has full control now because of that.

 

[marvelrobbins]

If box office is low even if fox sticks to it's exsisting plans for X-men shared universe you
may be looking at a lower budget when the sequel to Apocalypse is made.fox could insist
on 160-180 million budget for next film no more 200-235 million budgeted films.

 

[kguillou]

Yeah, people need to remember it's all about what it cost to make and market the movie that determines its success. If this movie did indeed cost 234 to produce then a $500 million gross is not good because thats the break even point. If this can crack or crawl to $800 mill, that's a success.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I have heard 234 million figure on the budget so assuming that is right it needs ww
468 million to just break even.

Depends on where the money comes from. And this is of course without all the other cost. BvS needed to make over $900m to break even on box office alone. It didn't.