Apocalypse X-Men: Apocalypse Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[Electrix]

And there expectations are for it to do more then DoFP.

How does this movie have more competition then DoFP?

And no it isn't. What are you basing that on? This movie cost over $200m to make. At least another $100m in advertising.

CONS:

– The level of competition X-Men: Apocalypse will face. In addition to opening the same weekend as Alice Through the Looking Glass, the film arrives just three weeks after Disney’s highly anticipated Captain America: Civil War and one week before Paramount’s Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows. Given that level of competition, there may only be so much room for improvement over the performance of Days of Future Past.

– Given how well received X-Men: Days of Future Past was by moviegoers and critics it will be tough for X-Men: Apocalypse to match the reception to that film.

http://pro.boxoffice.com/long-range-forecast-x-men-apocalypse-alice-through-the-looking-glass/

 

[Iceman]

I don't think it's worried about matching DofP, just trying to struggle to 60%. Although that is also looking far away now.

 

[superweirdo87]

A lot of movies fail to break even on theatrical revenues, but make a profit with DVD, PPV/VOD, TV, etc. BvS didn't break even with theater $. It also was not a monster that could carry WB past its losses. It should bring in a decent profit when ancillary revenues come in and it has merchandising.

Obviously studios are businesses. But, like movies are generally not a good investment with respect to what one could do with the money.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

CONS:

– The level of competition X-Men: Apocalypse will face. In addition to opening the same weekend as Alice Through the Looking Glass, the film arrives just three weeks after Disney’s highly anticipated Captain America: Civil War and one week before Paramount’s Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows. Given that level of competition, there may only be so much room for improvement over the performance of Days of Future Past.

– Given how well received X-Men: Days of Future Past was by moviegoers and critics it will be tough for X-Men: Apocalypse to match the reception to that film.

http://pro.boxoffice.com/long-range-forecast-x-men-apocalypse-alice-through-the-looking-glass/

Only three weeks after Civil War? Like really?

Actual competition for DoFP:

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekly/chart/?yr=2014&wk=21&p=.htm

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekly/chart/?yr=2014&wk=22&p=.htm

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekly/chart/?yr=2014&wk=22&p=.htm

If this movie isn't as well received, that is a quality issue. Civil War built on The Winter Soldier. Heck even TDKR did more then TDK.

By the way, they updated their long range forecast. It is doing under 100m by their numbers. For a 4 day weekend:

http://pro.boxoffice.com/long-range-forecast-secret-life-pets-mike-dave-wedding-dates/

 

[Tymminator]

Only three weeks after Civil War? Like really?

Actual competition for DoFP:

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekly/chart/?yr=2014&wk=21&p=.htm

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekly/chart/?yr=2014&wk=22&p=.htm

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekly/chart/?yr=2014&wk=22&p=.htm

If this movie isn't as well received, that is a quality issue. Civil War built on The Winter Soldier. Heck even TDKR did more then TDK.

By the way, they updated their long range forecast. It is doing under 100m by their numbers. For a 4 day weekend:

http://pro.boxoffice.com/long-range-forecast-secret-life-pets-mike-dave-wedding-dates/

Wow.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Wow.

Sorry, what is the wow for? Honest question.

 

[Tymminator]

Sorry, what is the wow for? Honest question.

My bad, I usually edit so one can tell.

It was the revised forecast.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

My bad, I usually edit so one can tell.

It was the revised forecast.

Ah, yeah makes sense. I honestly think it is a little low for a 4 day weekend. You'd think at least 105m. But if it does come under, wow is right.

 

[CaptainCanada]

If that ends up being the case, it doesn't entirely surprise me given the mixed-to-negative reviews would tamp down buzz (which it seems that FOX was surprised by, since their early moves indicated confidence in its critical reception).

 

[superweirdo87]

Umberto Gonzales posted that they screened the movie early because they wanted publicity rather than because they had confidence.

 

[Tacit Ronin]

The French weren't smart enough to comprehend the complexities of......oh wait. Wrong board.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

The French weren't smart enough to comprehend the complexities of......oh wait. Wrong board.

 

[CaptainCanada]

Umberto Gonzales posted that they screened the movie early because they wanted publicity rather than because they had confidence.

What is he basing that on, exactly? In situations like this, bad publicity is not, in fact, the same as good publicity.

Since the overseas markets were coming out a week early, of course, there was always going to be some lead-time for reviews.

 

[metaphysician]

people aren't rooting for avengers to fail.some are for X-men.

Also, dipping from 1.5B to 1.4B is a lot different a scenario than dipping from 700M to 600M. The percentage drop matters more than the exact amount, as does the relative distance from the break-even point.

 

[def28]

Umberto Gonzales posted that they screened the movie early because they wanted publicity rather than because they had confidence.

Yeah, remember hearing something like that. Allegedly Alice was tracking decent and very heavy with the female demo.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Alice will bring the female demo, much like how X-Men will bring the comic book fan demo. No matter the reviews, they will carry a certain amount of people.

 

[superweirdo87]

The overseas time was definitely a factor, and even bad publicity lets people know a movie is out there. They wanted to get heard after Civil War. I think Umberto based that on convos with people.

 

[def28]

Alice will bring the female demo, much like how X-Men will bring the comic book fan demo. No matter the reviews, they will carry a certain amount of people.

Definitely. Not exactly a ton of live action films in the summer dedicated to that demo in the first place. Disney is the only ones making them.

But maybe Alice was tracking a bit stronger then Fox expected. I don't know, that embargo release just seems odd.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Definitely. Not exactly a ton of live action films in the summer dedicated to that demo in the first place. Disney is the only ones making them.

But maybe Alice was tracking a bit stronger then Fox expected. I don't know, that embargo release just seems odd.

I honestly can't explain the embargo unless they thought they simply had a hit.

 

[Iceman]

A lot of movies fail to break even on theatrical revenues, but make a profit with DVD, PPV/VOD, TV, etc. BvS didn't break even with theater $. It also was not a monster that could carry WB past its losses. It should bring in a decent profit when ancillary revenues come in and it has merchandising.

Obviously studios are businesses. But, like movies are generally not a good investment with respect to what one could do with the money.

Businesses don't have to keep making movies or any particulr products indefinitely. Marvel nearly went bankrupt themselves. It is shareholder money and when things stop being profitable long term (they can take a hit for a fair while if the there is reason to believe fortunes will eventually turn) they eventually stop. If all a studio's films faced the expectation of breaking even or making a small profit with as much chance of downside risk as breaking out (like Deadpool) they wouldn't be able to carry that risk indefinitely. Sony's plans for a Spidey universe went up in smoke after TASM2 (made $708m WW) and I think Fox's F4 plans are also shot. The DCEU has suddenly become very dependant on what JL does even though it could weather the disappointing returns of BvS. Breaking even should really be seen in investment terms not of just getting your money back but of beating a benchmark target. When you give your money to a pension fund you wouldn't be too happy if they just gave your money back with no excess return when it comes to retirement day. t:

 

[superweirdo87]

Iceman, I am just saying that in general, movies are not a great opportunity for profits. I think studios depend on TV heavily. And that is why so many studios have focused on tentpoles and IP. Fortunately, Fox has Deadpool, X-force, Kingsman, Ice Age, and Avatar.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Don't they just distribute Avatar?

 

[kguillou]

Opening with Alice is going to be problematic. I'm actually VERY curious to see how that movie performs. I haven't seen the original but critics were not kind to it and it still made a cool billion. I also feel like that movie just kind of came and went without any buzz whatsoever, which makes me wonder how it reached that kind of box office. I guess that billion strictly consisted of elementary school kids who love 3D.

 

[RLAAMJR.]

The French weren't smart enough to comprehend the complexities of......oh wait. Wrong board.

rofl!

 

[RLAAMJR.]

Come on Asia, support the X-men Movie.