Apocalypse X-Men: Apocalypse Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

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I am going with less than $600M. It will actually be 2nd biggest grossing X-men movie and 3rd overall if we count Deadpool. Wont make DoFP money (around $750M) with those reviews, but it should make easily more than Last Stand ($460M) worldwide.
 
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Thats quite a decrease from DOFP's total worldwide gross.

It will be 3rd blockbuster superhero movie in row just in span of less than 2 months. I mean not everyone goes to cinema regularly, specially general audience. Civil War will still be in cinema playing. Mixed reviews (currently under 50% on RT) and just movie not getting good word of the mouth 3 weeks before release will hurt for sure opening day. Not mention no X-men movie ever get more than 750M on box-office. Even if I go around $700M this means this movie will make Cap: TWS money. I dont believe in that. At the best I see making it Thor: The Dark World money which is around $650M
 
Yeah I know, but if that becomes the final worldwide gross, then something is really off especially this film is getting IMAX release in international markets which DOFP didn't even get.
 
If XMA finishes below DoFP, Fox is going to be losing money on this film. Actual film profit numbers are never released but Deadline estimated that, after accounting for all different expenses (releasing costs, production budget, participations, etc.) and revenue streams (box office, home entertainment, TV, etc.), Days of Future Past generated $77M in profit off of a $200M production budget. XMA is reported to cost $234M so even if it makes exactly what DoFP did, it probably will not break even. I really don't understand what convinced Fox to spend so much on XMA.
 
It may not make any money but i don't think it will lose money. Which isn't good but i don't think it will effect plans for the franchise.
 
If XMA finishes below DoFP, Fox is going to be losing money on this film. Actual film profit numbers are never released but Deadline estimated that, after accounting for all different expenses (releasing costs, production budget, participations, etc.) and revenue streams (box office, home entertainment, TV, etc.), Days of Future Past generated $77M in profit off of a $200M production budget. XMA is reported to cost $234M so even if it makes exactly what DoFP did, it probably will not break even. I really don't understand what convinced Fox to spend so much on XMA.

Yeah because Deadline is a trusted website with all the studio plants, yes men, and constant spin that they do.
 
Yeah because Deadline is a trusted website with all the studio plants, yes men, and constant spin that they do.

Deadline's annual breakdowns are by far the best I've seen. They consult with outside firms to come up with the numbers and while they can never be perfect, they're far superior to the old 2.5X production budget rule (which really doesn't work for huge blockbusters because of the marketing costs and domestic-overseas balance).
 
Deadline....didn't they once claim Jurassic World only made $425 million worth of a profit...when it only cost $150 million & made $1.6 billion? If so, I take their analysis with a grain of salt.
 
Analysis can only get you so far. Accounting can be tricky, especially Hollywood accounting. Generally, it is better to see how the studio reacts than to just go by the numbers.
 
Deadline....didn't they once claim Jurassic World only made $425 million worth of a profit...when it only cost $150 million & made $1.6 billion? If so, I take their analysis with a grain of salt.
They get less then half of the 1.6bil. So, around 700m when you consider the lower takings for overseas. Add in the production cost, advertising, and any residuals they need to pay (royalties and such) and what is hard to understand about 425m in profit?
 
$425m is a great profit!
 
What's the budget of this film?

234 million. Almost as much as tentpoles like BVS and CW at 250 million. It's like after they saved costs on Deadpool they completely bloated their budget here.
 
International numbers are what's going to save this film. And Fox know that. That's why they've had so many international tie ins and the marketing has been heavy in so many other places. First Class, Wolverine, DoFP all had better international numbers compared to the first three movies which the domestic was a lot better.

DoFP was massive internationally and I think Apocalypse will make more in those markets. It's the domestic market that worries me. I can see domestic maybe it doing the same as DoFP maybe less maybe more. But I definitely think it will do better overseas.
 
I am going with less than $600M. It will actually be 2nd biggest grossing X-men movie and 3rd overall if we count Deadpool. Wont make DoFP money (around $750M) with those reviews, but it should make easily more than Last Stand ($460M) worldwide.

Bloody hell! Less than $600m would be an embarrassment! I'm sure they would have to exercise a bit more caution going forward if that happened.
 
International numbers are what's going to save this film. And Fox know that. That's why they've had so many international tie ins and the marketing has been heavy in so many other places. First Class, Wolverine, DoFP all had better international numbers compared to the first three movies which the domestic was a lot better.

DoFP was massive internationally and I think Apocalypse will make more in those markets. It's the domestic market that worries me. I can see domestic maybe it doing the same as DoFP maybe less maybe more. But I definitely think it will do better overseas.
DoFP was strong internationally. it was not massive. Civil War is massive. TFA, was massive. JW was massive. Get into the 800m OS, and then we are talking truly big numbers.
 
I meant massive for an X-Men film (should've stayed that) but yes I agree lol.
 
DoFP was strong internationally. it was not massive. Civil War is massive. TFA, was massive. JW was massive. Get into the 800m OS, and then we are talking truly big numbers.

All of those are massive domestically too. We'll have to wait on CW but the other two also did more domestically than DOFP did overseas!
 
I meant massive for an X-Men film but yes I agree lol.
In that case, yes. The problem is the OS numbers have been making up for the domestic numbers for a lot of films now. They need a domestic hit. You can't spend 300m plus and be looking at 200m domestic and 500m OS. That is not a good profit.
 
All of those are massive domestically too. We'll have to wait on CW but the other two also did more domestically than DOFP did overseas!
I know that, but that wasn't really what we were talking about. The idea is the OS numbers would keep the series afloat. totally possible, but it needs to do better domestically.
 
I think it will do fine domestically atleast 200 Million and somewhere between 400-500 Overseas
 
I know that, but that wasn't really what we were talking about. The idea is the OS numbers would keep the series afloat. totally possible, but it needs to do better domestically.
Errm... yeah I didn't think you didn't know, pretty basic lol. And it's clear what you were talking about, I was just backing you up (I know it's a schoolboy error doing that :csad:) on the specific point that "DoFP was strong internationally. it was not massive" as the named films have done more just in US making the use of 'massive' for DOFP's overseas take look like even more of an exaggeration. (and of course the whole point of the amount being massive has since been clarified by kevork that it was just massive for X-films so nothing to see here :yay:)
 
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