Apocalypse X-Men: Apocalypse Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[Zarex]

I'll believe X-Force (or New Mutants or Gambit) is happening when I see it.

My guess is those become much more likely, especially if Apocalypse underperforms. New Mutants can be done on the cheap and X-Force has a A-List BO attraction in Deadpool. Gambit could be introduced as a villain in the first and spun off into a solo. I could see all of these happening before a 90s era X-Men sequel.

 

[Sithborg]

I suspect the marketing budget has been spent elsewhere. Even in the US, it has been rather tepid. We will see. It is sounding not good in Europe and Australia, but doing better elsewhere. We will see how the other big territories respond.

 

[Mad Ones]

I saw a huge poster display for TMNT at the Eaton Centre in Toronto, but only a couple bus stop posters for Apocalypse.

 

[kineticist]

Idk if this has been posted. http://www.forbes.com/sites/scottme...ce-a-strong-103m-overseas-debut/#752de4af434e

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I suspect the marketing budget has been spent elsewhere. Even in the US, it has been rather tepid. We will see. It is sounding not good in Europe and Australia, but doing better elsewhere. We will see how the other big territories respond.

Really? Feel like I have been seeing tv spots like crazy all May.

 

[Sithborg]

Yeah, I've started seeing some TV spots. But the marketing feels a bit bland, I guess. We will see how effective it is. I know my step sister and her boyfriend are hyped for it. My roommate was kind of excited for it when we got the trailer in front of TFA.

 

[Iceman]

There were some good product-associated ads for this film with Sky TV.

 

[Docker2.0]

For me Kinberg would need to go before Singer. Singer is a great director but needs a decent script to work from as well.

Also, changing up some of the cast and characters might also be an idea, Beast, Mystique and Magneto could do without being seen for a movie or 2.

Darn it! I've been saying this for a minute! The problem is moreso Kinberg than it is Singer. Kinberg is the "Feige" of Fox's superheroes and he doesn't get it. If you kind of "guide" Singer, he can make a great movie. Kinberg probably had more control over F4 than people realize and look how it turned out.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Yeah, I've started seeing some TV spots. But the marketing feels a bit bland, I guess. We will see how effective it is. I know my step sister and her boyfriend are hyped for it. My roommate was kind of excited for it when we got the trailer in front of TFA.

I agree it is bland, but they do seem to be pouring it on.

 

[Sithborg]

Darn it! I've been saying this for a minute! The problem is moreso Kinberg than it is Singer. Kinberg is the "Feige" of Fox's superheroes and he doesn't get it. If you kind of "guide" Singer, he can make a great movie. Kinberg probably had more control over F4 than people realize and look how it turned out.

Again, don't give him more influence than he likely gets.

 

[thecatacombs]

It will do my prediction of at least 700 million worldwide. Yes, below DOFP but i never expected more even if this was at 91 at RT like DOFP.

Maybe my expectations were low, i guess it all depends on what the Studio expected. And i don't we will ever know what there expectations were. I guess if you believe the studio expected it to make a billion and it only made 650-700 million then it's a disappointing. I don't think the studio expected that though.

Anything less than $800 million worldwide is a disappointment. No way did the studio expect less. They are probably hoping some kind of miracle at this point. Shame but this could have been the first Xmen movie to hit 1 billion oh well onto the next movie. They should just forget this movie and start working on the next one ASAP.

 

[Sithborg]

A billion was never truly in the cards.

 

[thecatacombs]

A billion was never truly in the cards.

They were expecting between $800-$1 billion. I never said that was going to happen but that would put it above what DOFP made. Anything less than DOFP is a disappointment no matter how u spin it.

 

[JP]

They were expecting between $800-$1 billion. I never said that was going to happen but that would put it above what DOFP made. Anything less than DOFP is a disappointment no matter how u spin it.

Well, in that case Spider-Man 2 was a massive disappointment.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Well, in that case Spider-Man 2 was a massive disappointment.

That is a completely different situation. Adjusted for inflation Spider-Man 2 is a billion dollar movie today, coming off one of the biggest movies in history up to that point.

DoFP with all the surcharges and 10 years of inflation didn't even beat Spider-Man 2. In a world where billion dollar flicks are yearly. If DoFP was an all timer, you'd have a point, but it wasn't even the biggest comic book movie of the year.

 

[BeholdMe]

Would be better to bring Rogue instead of Storm.

No it wouldn't, Rogue came into his life much later after he had already joined the XMen he shouldn't be in his Orgins. Storm does share some history with him when she was reverted to a child by Nanny and they met as fellow thiefs before he was a member of the XMen so I'd say more so Storm. Yet if the movie happens I think it should just focus on him and his Orgins not have the XMen in it though I really don't think anyone is checking for a solo gambit film. They really should get a new actor and insert him possibly in the next film.

 

[BeholdMe]

They were expecting between $800-$1 billion. I never said that was going to happen but that would put it above what DOFP made. Anything less than DOFP is a disappointment no matter how u spin it.

I really don't think they were expecting 1 billion, though with a few tweaks I think it could've done that. It was an honest great movie, better than CW to me on many fronts but it was just handled bad at times. I think 700$ million will be good enough. Unless it just like drastically bad we have nothing to fear because those are still good numbers.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I really don't think they were expecting 1 billion, though with a few tweaks I think it could've done that. It was an honest great movie, better than CW to me on many fronts but it was just handled bad at times. I think 700$ million will be good enough. Unless it just like drastically bad we have nothing to fear because those are still good numbers.

Alight I am going to say this again. 700m is not "good numbers". Not for a movie that cost this much to make.

 

[BeholdMe]

Alight I am going to say this again. 700m is not "good numbers". Not for a movie that cost this much to make.

You can say it until you turn blue, I think those are respectable numbers it dosent have to sell a billion or 900$ to be considered a success those numbers are more than fine. They can just scale it down slightly next movie. This will not stop them from continue with the new cast and making another movie, it's not a flop

 

[JP]

Alight I am going to say this again. 700m is not "good numbers". Not for a movie that cost this much to make.

Why does it matter so much to you? At the end of the day FOX spent the money, and will make however much of it back and continue on with the next X-Men film...

 

[Iceman]

Darn it! I've been saying this for a minute! The problem is moreso Kinberg than it is Singer. Kinberg is the "Feige" of Fox's superheroes and he doesn't get it. If you kind of "guide" Singer, he can make a great movie. Kinberg probably had more control over F4 than people realize and look how it turned out.

I think so too. Singer has a big part of X-Men perfectly right but could do with a guiding hand for the remaining part.

 

[Docker2.0]

Alight I am going to say this again. 700m is not "good numbers". Not for a movie that cost this much to make.

Agreed! Especially when they see the money that Marvel is making. They can't be happy with these numbers. Content maybe but not happy.

Why does it matter so much to you? At the end of the day FOX spent the money, and will make however much of it back and continue on with the next X-Men film...

It is the box office thread so it is basically the point of this thread. It's a fun topic of comic fans to discuss. Please don't be that guy.

 

[DocLathropBrown]

You can say it until you turn blue, I think those are respectable numbers it dosent have to sell a billion or 900$ to be considered a success those numbers are more than fine. They can just scale it down slightly next movie. This will not stop them from continue with the new cast and making another movie, it's not a flop

What he means is you have to realize that if it grosses $700 mil., the studio doesn't get $700 mil. They get about half of the US gross, and like 30% of the foreign gross. If the film costs, say, 250 million to make and 200 million to market, then it cost $450 million total. If they gross $700 WW by the end of its run, then they haven't even broken even on the production and marketing costs.

Will XM:A turn a profit? Eventually, with home video and whatnot. But it may not be a big enough profit. Those same reasons are why BvS is prettymuch a flop. It's only now turning a profit. But WB also makes money from merchandise--Fox doesn't earn a dime on any merchandise for the film, so Fox has wayyy less cushion with X-Men then WB did when BvS failed.

 

[Iceman]

Why does it matter so much to you? At the end of the day FOX spent the money, and will make however much of it back and continue on with the next X-Men film...

The only reason any of these films are being made is expectation driven by previous box office successes. As you know the first X-men film (and then Spidey 1) making what it did is part of the foundation of all modern CBNs exploding. Before then film franchises (apart from Bond) didn't go on indefinitely like CBMs do nowadays. Iron Man doing what it did is what launched Marvel into making so many films. Fox continued after FC as that was a reboot of sorts with the promise of better paydays in future but they won't keep making X-films forever for that kind of money. The recent F4 has certainly affected the likelihood of getting F4 films into perpetuity (at least by Fox) while Deadpool has boosted the likelihood of non-main-team X-films. BvS has put WB very much on edge about the future of their DCEU while TASM2 killed the future of Sony's Spidey universe. Every dollar counts.

 

[Tilapia]

700 million for this film means they aren't going to be making productions like this again. It means they've hit diminishing returns. It means don't expect to see another X-Men on this scale any time soon. So yeah, I'd be taking note if I was a fan.

X-Men films will not continue to be made if these are the returns. They will be scaling back, and have done exactly that with Wolverine 3, which doesn't look like a big production at all and will be R-rated. Not how I would send Jackman out IMO.

Gambit... smaller production. New mutants? Not gonna be made IMO. And a sequel to Apocalypse? I think you'd be looking at a 150-160 million dollar budget. They will have to shave cast members, and Sinister wouldn't be CGI heavy at all. That could take you back to X1/2 scale. Maybe that's what we need though.