Apocalypse X-Men: Apocalypse Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[JP]

It is the box office thread so it is basically the point of this thread. It's a fun topic of comic fans to discuss. Please don't be that guy.

Yeah, but at the end of the day it's exactly like you said. We're all just fans having fun discussing numbers. But to me it's like the silly runtime arguments. Saying "This film NEEDS to bee this length" is just as crazy to me as saying"If the film doesn't make THIS many it's a failure!"

First Class made almost nothing back during it's theatrical run, while DoFP made 737m, but only 100 of that was a net profit for Fox. Both successful in their own right... or both failures in their own right.

 

[RLAAMJR.]

I agree with you!

 

[RLAAMJR.]

And I'm happy and proud to say that X-men: Apocalypse is #1 in the Philippines.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Why does it matter so much to you? At the end of the day FOX spent the money, and will make however much of it back and continue on with the next X-Men film...

Because people are showing a basic lack of understanding about box office in a thread about the box office. It is no different then when people go into the RT threads not knowing how RT works.

Are you suggesting that people who have a bit of a better grasp aren't allowed to show the clear errors in logic? Or do we all just need to fanboy? Because if this movie makes 650m-700m, there will be changes. What kind, not sure. But things will not stay the same. And that is relevant.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Yeah, but at the end of the day it's exactly like you said. We're all just fans having fun discussing numbers. But to me it's like the silly runtime arguments. Saying "This film NEEDS to bee this length" is just as crazy to me as saying"If the film doesn't make THIS many it's a failure!"

First Class made almost nothing back during it's theatrical run, while DoFP made 737m, but only 100 of that was a net profit for Fox. Both successful in their own right... or both failures in their own right.

Which is exactly why they made Apocalypse. Because they were looking for better returns.

 

[psylockolussus]

700 million for this film means they aren't going to be making productions like this again. It means they've hit diminishing returns. It means don't expect to see another X-Men on this scale any time soon. So yeah, I'd be taking note if I was a fan.

X-Men films will not continue to be made if these are the returns. They will be scaling back, and have done exactly that with Wolverine 3, which doesn't look like a big production at all and will be R-rated. Not how I would send Jackman out IMO.

Gambit... smaller production. New mutants? Not gonna be made IMO. And a sequel to Apocalypse? I think you'd be looking at a 150-160 million dollar budget. They will have to shave cast members, and Sinister wouldn't be CGI heavy at all. That could take you back to X1/2 scale. Maybe that's what we need though.

I think they should just aim for character driven films than action/spectacle driven films... but I guess if they scale back when it comes to action/visuals, I don't know if the GA would respond to that very well especially after the 1st weekend, like I feel like the GA usually repeat viewing for the spectacle. I mean like with X-Men, people would expect lots of mutants and mutants vs mutants. With Deadpool/Wolverine, not so much.

I don't think X-force is as close to release as you think.

X-Force is pretty much guaranteed because in my opinion, the box-office success of Deadpool 2 is already guaranteed and I don't think they would spend over $200 million for Deadpool 2 when it comes to production.

 

[RLAAMJR.]

Would be better to bring Rogue instead of Storm.

Both of them please.

 

[RLAAMJR.]

This movie will reach $800 million for sure.

 

[Docker2.0]

Which is exactly why they made Apocalypse. Because they were looking for better returns.

Preach dang it!

 

[Docker2.0]

And I'm happy and proud to say that X-men: Apocalypse is #1 in the Philippines.

No offense but that's like saying Lebron scored 70 points in the PBA. You get that analogy right?

This movie will reach $800 million for sure.

No it won't.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Is RLAAMJR. from the Philippines? If that is the case, nothing wrong with some national pride.

 

[Docker2.0]

Is RLAAMJR. from the Philippines? If that is the case, nothing wrong with some national pride.

I'm kind of surprised by that to. RLAAMJR doesn't seem like a pinoy name.

 

[psylockolussus]

Lol. I do not think thats a name at all. Could be his initials though.

 

[RLAAMJR.]

No offense but that's like saying Lebron scored 70 points in the PBA. You get that analogy right?



No it won't.

Better prediction than yours.

 

[RLAAMJR.]

I'm kind of surprised by that to. RLAAMJR doesn't seem like a pinoy name.

Why would I use a pinoy name as my username? That would be not so cool I think.

Lol. I do not think thats a name at all. Could be his initials though.

Those are initials.

 

[Docker2.0]

Lol. I do not think thats a name at all. Could be his initials though.

Yeah but......eh, to drink to explain. I bet I'm right though that it's something of his name.

Better prediction than yours.

$650M WW is my take on this film. Put it in your sig but I'm betting I'm right.

 

[RLAAMJR.]

Yeah but......eh, to drink to explain. I bet I'm right though that it's something of his name.



$650M WW is my take on this film. Put it in your sig but I'm betting I'm right.

Well, see you in the future. My prediction is definitely closer to the real figures.

 

[RLAAMJR.]

Is RLAAMJR. from the Philippines? If that is the case, nothing wrong with some national pride.

I am from the Philippines and I'm proud to say the Philippines are X-men fans.

 

[psylockolussus]

And I'm happy and proud to say that X-men: Apocalypse is #1 in the Philippines.

And according to box-office mojo, Apocalypse has the biggest opening week gross for a 20th Century Fox film! X-Men: Apocalypse slaying box-office records in the Philippines!

 

[Docker2.0]

And according to box-office mojo, Apocalypse has the biggest opening week gross for a 20th Century Fox film! X-Men: Apocalypse slaying box-office records in the Philippines!

What was CW and BvS OW there? Just curious.

 

[RLAAMJR.]

And according to box-office mojo, Apocalypse has the biggest opening week gross for a 20th Century Fox film! X-Men: Apocalypse slaying box-office records in the Philippines!

Oh yeah!

 

[BeholdMe]

What he means is you have to realize that if it grosses $700 mil., the studio doesn't get $700 mil. They get about half of the US gross, and like 30% of the foreign gross. If the film costs, say, 250 million to make and 200 million to market, then it cost $450 million total. If they gross $700 WW by the end of its run, then they haven't even broken even on the production and marketing costs.

Will XM:A turn a profit? Eventually, with home video and whatnot. But it may not be a big enough profit. Those same reasons are why BvS is prettymuch a flop. It's only now turning a profit. But WB also makes money from merchandise--Fox doesn't earn a dime on any merchandise for the film, so Fox has wayyy less cushion with X-Men then WB did when BvS failed.

I understand all of that and I'm aware the studio dosent get the full amount of a movies profits based on budget and promotion. I still wouldn't call this movie a flop by any standards just because it made 700$ dosent mean I'm some crazy "fanboy" it may not be great but it's still good enough.

 

[BeholdMe]

Because people are showing a basic lack of understanding about box office in a thread about the box office. It is no different then when people go into the RT threads not knowing how RT works.

Are you suggesting that people who have a bit of a better grasp aren't allowed to show the clear errors in logic? Or do we all just need to fanboy? Because if this movie makes 650m-700m, there will be changes. What kind, not sure. But things will not stay the same. And that is relevant.

What changes are you expecting to happen if it makes 700$ ish million? Only thing different I want is another writer everything else I can tolerate though I think Singer should take a break. I feel that's were the issue is.

 

[psylockolussus]

$700 million is fine. I mean Fox should have expected this when they decided to go the prequel route again with younger version of established characters. This is like First Class 2.0 to the GA but with the goodwill coming from DOFP. If it outgrossed DOFP, great, if not, not too surprising given how X-Men spin-offs/prequels performed in the past.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

What changes are you expecting to happen if it makes 700$ ish million? Only thing different I want is another writer everything else I can tolerate though I think Singer should take a break. I feel that's were the issue is.

New creative, possibly abandoning the decade jumping. Maybe "soft reboot" it and make it modern.