Apocalypse X-Men: Apocalypse Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 4

[daddydivine]

Wait. So is the consensus that it might finish around 500 mil WW? or is that just overseas. Because 500 mil is not doing fine.

 

[Sithborg]

That's the problem. It's doing fine....not EXTRAORDINARY.

It's going to get beat by Deadpool, which featured an X-Man audiences previously knew nothing about but got more characterization than 90% of the main roster.

Fine is not good enough.

Fine for the reported budget is perfectly okay. I think people's expectations are completely out of whack. No movie or franchise deserves to make a set amount of money. They will earn what they earn, no matter how much you feel they should be more popular.

 

[Wildcard]

Wait. So is the consensus that it might finish around 500 mil WW? or is that just overseas. Because 500 mil is not doing fine.

Some are worried it won't make $500 million WW, but it's not a given that's where it stays. But it's also not a lock that it'll make it past there. I was thinking $600 million....we'll see after this weekend.

Fine for the reported budget is perfectly okay. I think people's expectations are completely out of whack. No movie or franchise deserves to make a set amount of money. They will earn what they earn, no matter how much you feel they should be more popular.

Not really. I'd at least expect it to gross around the same as the last installment, even if it's a little less. But if it comes in $100-$200 million under the last one, which was a bonafide hit, there's a problem.

There's nothing out of whack about the facts, which are that XMA is underperforming, even with its scaled back budget.

 

[Sithborg]

I think $600 is likely.

 

[fallenAngel]

Weekend Estimates from Box Office Mojo
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=4192&p=.htm

 

[kguillou]

I would say $600 is feasible if it weren't for the competition. This is a Man of Steel situation where its going to face tough competition that will eat into its revenue in the coming weeks. Ninja Turtles is going to be an issue this weekend. Then Now You See Me 2 the following.

 

[Sithborg]

Except the competition seems to be weakening as we go forward. Alice is a bomb. Turtles is looking to be opening weaker than the first and many early predictions. Warcraft is likely to be a non factor domestically. Now You See Me 2 isn't going to be that big. And the Wed drop wasn't nearly as bad as I expected, keeping a bit higher than DOFP's first weekday drops.

 

[Xrated48]

Except the competition seems to be weakening as we go forward. Alice is a bomb. Turtles is looking to be opening weaker than the first and many early predictions. Warcraft is likely to be a non factor domestically. Now You See Me 2 isn't going to be that big. And the Wed drop wasn't nearly as bad as I expected, keeping a bit higher than DOFP's first weekday drops.

Plus The Conjuring 2 could hurt it just a little bit box office wise but I don't believe it will have much effect.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Except the competition seems to be weakening as we go forward. Alice is a bomb. Turtles is looking to be opening weaker than the first and many early predictions. Warcraft is likely to be a non factor domestically. Now You See Me 2 isn't going to be that big. And the Wed drop wasn't nearly as bad as I expected, keeping a bit higher than DOFP's first weekday drops.

Which is exactly why this not having good legs would be a horrible indication. There are no excuses.

 

[Sithborg]

It should be able to handle normal X-men legs, which were never that strong to begin with. Alice's collapse does mean it can likely keep theaters longer than Alice.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

It should be able to handle normal X-men legs, which were never that strong to begin with. Alice's collapse does mean it can likely keep theaters longer than Alice.

Regular legs doesn't get it to 600m, does it?

 

[Erzengel]

Prior to the release of the reviews, saying that Apocalypse would make as much as DOFP or Deadpool wouldn't have been such an outrageous statement. But obviously, a less quality film would make less in general.

 

[Serpico Jones]

Regular legs doesn't get it to 600m, does it?

Rihanna's legs can get to $600m...

 

[Tony Stark]

Except the competition seems to be weakening as we go forward. Alice is a bomb. Turtles is looking to be opening weaker than the first and many early predictions. Warcraft is likely to be a non factor domestically. Now You See Me 2 isn't going to be that big. And the Wed drop wasn't nearly as bad as I expected, keeping a bit higher than DOFP's first weekday drops.

%'ages are going to look better, because it's a lower number than DOFP had. DOFP had -64%, against Maleficent, which is probably a bigger draw than TMNT2 as Maleficent had a pretty good cross demographic with women and men. TMNT2 will be dads and their young children, but it will take first place, but not 70M like Maleficent had.

 

[Raiden]

I still don't buy the 178 mil reported budget. Also, there's marketing cost to be factored in as well. When you start to argue that a movie that is the end of a trilogy is doing well despite the fact that it's making less than its predecessor, you have a problem.

 

[jaymes_e06]

Avengers 2 made less than TFA. SM2 made less than SM1 ASM2 made less than ASM etc... it isn't always a rule. Why are you always so dramatic? Not all films are expecting to be as well received as previous efforts.

 

[DavidHaller]

indeed. and critically it was a disaster!!! I'm happy at least some people showed up for this movie mess.

So let's be happy about every cent we can get!

But it is definitely not the best sign that FOX did not reveal anything about a future X-Men movie yet...normally studios are starting the sequel talk on opening weekend to produce some hype...I guess we will have to wait a while before we get to see the next team X-Men movie... ... .

 

[Sithborg]

I feel that $440 mil internationally is possible. Which should put Apocalypse over $600. But, a lot will of course depend on China.

 

[fallenAngel]

indeed. and critically it was a disaster!!! I'm happy at least some people showed up for this movie mess.

So let's be happy about every cent we can get!

But it is definitely not the best sign that FOX did not reveal anything about a future X-Men movie yet...normally studios are starting the sequel talk on opening weekend to produce some hype...I guess we will have to wait a while before we get to see the next team X-Men movie... ... .

I think Apocalypse has been the only one they've done this with. X2 was a critical hit that made more than its predecessor and yet they waited for years before getting around to a follow up.

First Class also led to Dofp, which obviously wasn't what they originally had in mind considering the ending and how they essentially gutted the cast and went back to the original actors.

This franchise has always been a little up in the air

 

[DavidHaller]

ok, so let me do it for them:

'X-Men: Imperial' (May 2018)

;-)

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I feel that $440 mil internationally is possible. Which should put Apocalypse over $600. But, a lot will of course depend on China.

Depends on if Warcraft destroys there or not. If it does, no hope for X-Men there.

 

[marvelrobbins]

ok, so let me do it for them:

'X-Men: Imperial' (May 2018)

;-)

that won't work.disney has both part 1 of avengers epic and han solo origin
film set for may 2018.

2018 may be too soon for an X-men team film.before apocalypse it was 3 year wait tradional.and a 5 year wait between last stand and first class.

The title your suggesting would be consent with going into outer space with a phoenix story and shiar.who knows what bryan Singer's replacement will want to do.

there is also question that fox may have gambit or new mutants in summer after deadpool In march.

we won't hear anything on next X-men films till it's know when they are aiming for.Fox has indicted they want to continue with new cast members they brought In for Apocalypse but beyond that a lot is up in the air.

 

[fallenAngel]

Would a different month work better for X-men?

X1 and First Class were June right? And Wolverine I think?

The rest have been May

Maybe they should try to secure an April release now that that's a thing, or March.

 

[marvelrobbins]

Would a different month work better for X-men?

X1 and First Class were June right? And Wolverine I think?

The rest have been May

Maybe they should try to secure an April release now that that's a thing, or March.

May-X2,last stand,DOFP,APocalypse
June-First Class
July-X-men

If you include wolverine films than origins was in may and the wolverine in july.Fox wanting to release them In may is understanable since that is month of biggest success.

If Disney secures may for both MCU and star wars starting in 2018 then apocalypse may be last X-Men film to be released In May.

 

[fallenAngel]

I think memorial day is a good fit, or was. but with the market infinitely more saturated now than it used to be, and movies like Hunger Games, Fast and Furious and Guardians of the Galaxy have extending the blockbuster season to March, April and August respectively, they may do well to either get a jump on the season or perhaps cap it.

Hell, so far the second biggest domestic hit of the year was released in February. Maybe anything is fair game now