Captain America 3: Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 2

Discussion in 'Captain America: Civil War' started by Thread Manager, May 11, 2016.

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  1. DarthAlani Registered

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    I'm expecting big things from Thor. With Thor/Hulk in the film those two powerhouses don't have to be nerfed to make the others look good.
     
  2. Silver Surfer Power Cosmic

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    65 million weekend for XM: Yikes!

    Just goes to show how rough it is out there for blockbuster CBMs, and how powerful the MCU brand is that even Ant-Man managed to get a 57 million OW.
     
  3. Zant Registered

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    Deadpool did not need the MCU brand. So at least there is hope for other studios. The Box Office this year is acting funny isn't it.
     
  4. Silver Surfer Power Cosmic

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    In this era of CBMs to get to that Billion mark, you need that MCU brand. not even DC's trinity could achieve that.
     
  5. Tilapia Registered

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    Infinity War are pretty much the only billion dollar comicbook films remaining for the forseeable future. DCEU ain't getting there. And the MCU isn't getting back there without the core Avengers roster involved. If part I is bad, then part II could see a dramatic drop off so there is that risk as well. Thanos is not a compelling villain thus far. GotG 2 and Ragnarok pretty much have to set the stage for Infinity War to be a 3 billion dollar grosser. 1.5 billion may even be the break even point so it's likely they are still in the red after part I. Most expensive ever back to back production from what I've read. I think the Hobbit trilogy cost close to a billion to produce. Infinity War is probably looking at a 600 million dollar price tag and another 400 million for marketing at minimum.
     
  6. Zant Registered

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    Yup. It would be nice to see a MCU film make a billion without Iron Man though.
     
  7. warcam Registered

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    GOTG 2 and Ragnarok certainly have that potential (Ragnarok having the Hulk certainly helps).
    Strange and BP will probably only do about Ant-man's #'s.
    A-M and TW may do better than its predecessor...especially if its ratings are higher.
    Who knows about Cap Marvel???
     
  8. Silver Surfer Power Cosmic

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    Another MCU film that will break the billion is homecoming, Rag and GOTG have a shot but homecoming is a lock.
     
  9. Tilapia Registered

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    Spiderman isn't a lock for anything.
     
  10. StormC Custom User Title?

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    Strange and BP could easily do GOTG numbers if the WOM is solid. Both will probably be very different from the rest of the MCU's slate and have strong star power in their favor, along with BP's boost from CW.

    Homecoming is gonna need noticeably better reception than the TASM movies (RT floor being 80%) to get that billion. If it gets it, it'll be just barely.

    I don't see it happening with Ragnarok unless it plays SUPER well to the GA, Hulk and Thor are the weakest draws of the core four.
     
  11. Silver Surfer Power Cosmic

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    Yes it is, with RDJ's Stark in it, it is. Heck even a ****** ASM2 grossed 700+ million. With the MCU brand and Iron-Man, 1 billion is a no brainier.
     
  12. Flint Marko Bring me Thanos

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    I'm honestly not so sure about that. I'd love to be wrong, Spider-man's my guy, but a billion isn't an easy thing to get to and I don't know if a third attempt at the character in less than 20 years is going to have the steam to do that. RDJ's presence throws a wrench in the guessing game, but I still don't think it's a lock.
     
  13. Bruce Malone Registered

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    So it seems the film will end up somewhere between AoU and IM3 domestically. Closer to the IM3 side I suppose?
     
  14. Chesterfield Registered

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    You'd think that to be the case but it isn't. It's not an exact science.
     
  15. Spiderine Sho nuff

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    I agree. I wouldn't go that far just yet. But this is why when people aim so high with the expectations saying this is guaranteed to hit a billion because.........people say its a disappointment when it doesn't. I expect it to fall short.
     
  16. StormC Custom User Title?

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    CW had Captain America, Iron Man, Spider-Man, a boatload of other superheroes, near-unanimous critical acclaim, and will probably finish just a notch or two above a billion. This is the third Spidey film franchise with only Iron Man at this point in time. It is not a no brainer.
     
  17. spider-neil spins a web any size!

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    Spider-Man should concentrate on bucking the trend of making less domestically with every movie that comes out.
     
  18. Dark Raven The Gal from Themyscira

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    So CW is now at #15 in the all-time highest list, above Transformers: Age of Extinction and TDKR but below Skyfall and ROTK.
     
  19. Ctfxcwatcher Registered

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    I honestly think Spider-Man Homecoming will do better at the box office than the last 2 ASM movies. But I don't think it will do as well as the original trilogy. But hey you never know. The Batman franchise made a furious comeback with BB and TDK. But then again this is the 3rd Spidey reboot in less than 20 years and I believe BB came out after a 8 year hiatus from Batman sooooo yeaaahhh.
     
    #894 Ctfxcwatcher, May 31, 2016
    Last edited: May 31, 2016
  20. InCali I got a pUpgrade!

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    A well done and well received BvS could certainly have hit that mark. It's kind of starting to look like you may need RDJ. Of course he's overpaid and causes so many budget not to mention other problems..... :o
     
  21. InCali I got a pUpgrade!

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    I think Thor and Cap are on about the same level. Caps stock has certainly risen because TWS was, IMO, better than TDW and now we had CW with practically the whole crew. "IF" Ragnarok is really good, I think we'll see Thor's stock rise. The first Thor movie made more than Cap's did. Right now, you're probably right, but I could see that changing. Frankly I think Thor is a more interesting character to most people WW.
     
  22. SomeOldGuy Registered

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    Worth noting from Deadline's OS report today (emphasis added):

    Exchange rates have taken a significant chunk out of CW versus a lot of the films it's being compared to.
     
  23. KangConquers Purple Kang, Purple Kang

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    I think people have started to favor Cap based on Marvel's inability to make a great Thor movie. Cap also went from the clear #4 character in Avengers 1, to the clear #2 in AoU, based on how the character was written/ treated.

    I do, believe Marvel left HUGE money on the table by not doing a Hulk movie in Phase 2. Hulk was many people's favorite thing about the Avengers, and I think a Phase 2 Hulk would've outgrossed Thor: The Dark World and Winter Soldier, based on the hype he had going out of the first Avenger film. I'd say the floor for a Phase 2 Hulk movie was $800 M worldwide, and whatever Universal rights ensnarement, and post-TIH paranoia kept it from happening.

    I don't see Ragnarok doing Civil War numbers, and I do believe bad or not, Justice League will kill Ragnarok's legs. Still I see Ragnarok doing more than any Phase 1 or 2 movie without Tony Stark.


    On topic of Cap, I'm curious if Civil War actually grew the Captain America brand at all, and if a future Cap 4 sees any returning customers who saw Civil War but didn't see Winter Soldier.

    Maybe this can expand Cap into a 300 M domestic/ 600 M foreign brand?
     
    #898 KangConquers, May 31, 2016
    Last edited: May 31, 2016
  24. InCali I got a pUpgrade!

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    You might be right about JL killing Thor's legs, but there are a LOT of unknowns leading up to it. BvS might have killed JL's legs for all we know. I see what you are saying about Cap and don't think you are wrong. I do, however, still think that Thor is the more interesting character WW. Captain America doesn't necessarily play that well in the non-US market. Thor definitely has a leg up in the OS market IF they can make a really compelling Thor movie. Hoping the next one up is the one.
     
  25. JOE _________________________

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    I think Homecoming is a lock for BvS numbers, not a billion though.
     
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