Civil War Captain America 3: Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 2

[DarthAlani]

I'm expecting big things from Thor. With Thor/Hulk in the film those two powerhouses don't have to be nerfed to make the others look good.

 

[Silver Surfer]

65 million weekend for XM: Yikes!

Just goes to show how rough it is out there for blockbuster CBMs, and how powerful the MCU brand is that even Ant-Man managed to get a 57 million OW.

 

[Zant]

Deadpool did not need the MCU brand. So at least there is hope for other studios. The Box Office this year is acting funny isn't it.

 

[Silver Surfer]

In this era of CBMs to get to that Billion mark, you need that MCU brand. not even DC's trinity could achieve that.

 

[Tilapia]

Infinity War are pretty much the only billion dollar comicbook films remaining for the forseeable future. DCEU ain't getting there. And the MCU isn't getting back there without the core Avengers roster involved. If part I is bad, then part II could see a dramatic drop off so there is that risk as well. Thanos is not a compelling villain thus far. GotG 2 and Ragnarok pretty much have to set the stage for Infinity War to be a 3 billion dollar grosser. 1.5 billion may even be the break even point so it's likely they are still in the red after part I. Most expensive ever back to back production from what I've read. I think the Hobbit trilogy cost close to a billion to produce. Infinity War is probably looking at a 600 million dollar price tag and another 400 million for marketing at minimum.

 

[Zant]

In this era of CBMs to get to that Billion mark, you need that MCU brand. not even DC's trinity could achieve that.

Yup. It would be nice to see a MCU film make a billion without Iron Man though.

 

[warcam]

Yup. It would be nice to see a MCU film make a billion without Iron Man though.

GOTG 2 and Ragnarok certainly have that potential (Ragnarok having the Hulk certainly helps).
Strange and BP will probably only do about Ant-man's #'s.
A-M and TW may do better than its predecessor...especially if its ratings are higher.
Who knows about Cap Marvel???

 

[Silver Surfer]

Another MCU film that will break the billion is homecoming, Rag and GOTG have a shot but homecoming is a lock.

 

[Tilapia]

Another MCU film that will break the billion is homecoming, Rag and GOTG have a shot but homecoming is a lock.

Spiderman isn't a lock for anything.

 

[StormC]

Strange and BP could easily do GOTG numbers if the WOM is solid. Both will probably be very different from the rest of the MCU's slate and have strong star power in their favor, along with BP's boost from CW.

Homecoming is gonna need noticeably better reception than the TASM movies (RT floor being 80%) to get that billion. If it gets it, it'll be just barely.

I don't see it happening with Ragnarok unless it plays SUPER well to the GA, Hulk and Thor are the weakest draws of the core four.

 

[Silver Surfer]

Spiderman isn't a lock for anything.

Yes it is, with RDJ's Stark in it, it is. Heck even a ****** ASM2 grossed 700+ million. With the MCU brand and Iron-Man, 1 billion is a no brainier.

 

[Flint Marko]

I'm honestly not so sure about that. I'd love to be wrong, Spider-man's my guy, but a billion isn't an easy thing to get to and I don't know if a third attempt at the character in less than 20 years is going to have the steam to do that. RDJ's presence throws a wrench in the guessing game, but I still don't think it's a lock.

 

[Bruce Malone]

So it seems the film will end up somewhere between AoU and IM3 domestically. Closer to the IM3 side I suppose?

 

[Chesterfield]

Yes it is, with RDJ's Stark in it, it is. Heck even a ****** ASM2 grossed 700+ million. With the MCU brand and Iron-Man, 1 billion is a no brainier.

You'd think that to be the case but it isn't. It's not an exact science.

 

[Spiderine]

I'm honestly not so sure about that. I'd love to be wrong, Spider-man's my guy, but a billion isn't an easy thing to get to and I don't know if a third attempt at the character in less than 20 years is going to have the steam to do that. RDJ's presence throws a wrench in the guessing game, but I still don't think it's a lock.

I agree. I wouldn't go that far just yet. But this is why when people aim so high with the expectations saying this is guaranteed to hit a billion because.........people say its a disappointment when it doesn't. I expect it to fall short.

 

[StormC]

Yes it is, with RDJ's Stark in it, it is. Heck even a ****** ASM2 grossed 700+ million. With the MCU brand and Iron-Man, 1 billion is a no brainier.

CW had Captain America, Iron Man, Spider-Man, a boatload of other superheroes, near-unanimous critical acclaim, and will probably finish just a notch or two above a billion. This is the third Spidey film franchise with only Iron Man at this point in time. It is not a no brainer.

 

[spider-neil]

Spider-Man should concentrate on bucking the trend of making less domestically with every movie that comes out.

 

[Dark Raven]

So CW is now at #15 in the all-time highest list, above Transformers: Age of Extinction and TDKR but below Skyfall and ROTK.

 

[Ctfxcwatcher]

I honestly think Spider-Man Homecoming will do better at the box office than the last 2 ASM movies. But I don't think it will do as well as the original trilogy. But hey you never know. The Batman franchise made a furious comeback with BB and TDK. But then again this is the 3rd Spidey reboot in less than 20 years and I believe BB came out after a 8 year hiatus from Batman sooooo yeaaahhh.

 

[InCali]

In this era of CBMs to get to that Billion mark, you need that MCU brand. not even DC's trinity could achieve that.

A well done and well received BvS could certainly have hit that mark. It's kind of starting to look like you may need RDJ. Of course he's overpaid and causes so many budget not to mention other problems.....

 

[InCali]

Strange and BP could easily do GOTG numbers if the WOM is solid. Both will probably be very different from the rest of the MCU's slate and have strong star power in their favor, along with BP's boost from CW.

Homecoming is gonna need noticeably better reception than the TASM movies (RT floor being 80%) to get that billion. If it gets it, it'll be just barely.

I don't see it happening with Ragnarok unless it plays SUPER well to the GA, Hulk and Thor are the weakest draws of the core four.

I think Thor and Cap are on about the same level. Caps stock has certainly risen because TWS was, IMO, better than TDW and now we had CW with practically the whole crew. "IF" Ragnarok is really good, I think we'll see Thor's stock rise. The first Thor movie made more than Cap's did. Right now, you're probably right, but I could see that changing. Frankly I think Thor is a more interesting character to most people WW.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Worth noting from Deadline's OS report today (emphasis added):

Team Cap and Team Iron Man continue to duke it out at the international box office, adding $12.5M in the Disney/Marvel’s film’s 5th offshore weekend. Holds were good in Germany (-33M%), France (-45%) and the UK (-55%). The overseas total is now $730.7M for a $1.108B global cume. CACW is still the 4th highest grossing superhero movie of all time internationally, behind only Avengers: Age Of Ultron ($946M), The Avengers ($895M) and Iron Man 3 ($806M). Converting by today’s exchange rates, it has actually surpassed both IM3 and The Avengers. Globally, it’s also the 4th biggest superhero flick, having passed The Dark Knight Rises. The top grossing offshore markets are China ($186.4M), where its run is tapering down; Korea ($62.7M); the UK ($51.9M); Mexico ($41.2M); and Brazil ($39.1M).

Exchange rates have taken a significant chunk out of CW versus a lot of the films it's being compared to.

 

[KangConquers]

I think Thor and Cap are on about the same level. Caps stock has certainly risen because TWS was, IMO, better than TDW and now we had CW with practically the whole crew. "IF" Ragnarok is really good, I think we'll see Thor's stock rise. The first Thor movie made more than Cap's did. Right now, you're probably right, but I could see that changing. Frankly I think Thor is a more interesting character to most people WW.

I think people have started to favor Cap based on Marvel's inability to make a great Thor movie. Cap also went from the clear #4 character in Avengers 1, to the clear #2 in AoU, based on how the character was written/ treated.

I do, believe Marvel left HUGE money on the table by not doing a Hulk movie in Phase 2. Hulk was many people's favorite thing about the Avengers, and I think a Phase 2 Hulk would've outgrossed Thor: The Dark World and Winter Soldier, based on the hype he had going out of the first Avenger film. I'd say the floor for a Phase 2 Hulk movie was $800 M worldwide, and whatever Universal rights ensnarement, and post-TIH paranoia kept it from happening.

I don't see Ragnarok doing Civil War numbers, and I do believe bad or not, Justice League will kill Ragnarok's legs. Still I see Ragnarok doing more than any Phase 1 or 2 movie without Tony Stark.


On topic of Cap, I'm curious if Civil War actually grew the Captain America brand at all, and if a future Cap 4 sees any returning customers who saw Civil War but didn't see Winter Soldier.

Maybe this can expand Cap into a 300 M domestic/ 600 M foreign brand?

 

[InCali]

I think people have started to favor Cap based on Marvel's inability to make a great Thor movie. Cap also went from the clear #4 character in Avengers 1, to the clear #2 in AoU, based on how the character was written/ treated.

I do, believe Marvel left HUGE money on the table by not doing a Hulk movie in Phase 2. Hulk was many people's favorite thing about the Avengers, and I think a Phase 2 Hulk would've outgrossed Thor: The Dark World and Winter Soldier, based on the hype he had going out of the first Avenger film. I'd say the floor for a Phase 2 Hulk movie was $800 M worldwide, and whatever Universal rights ensnarement, and post-TIH paranoia kept it from happening.

I don't see Ragnarok doing Civil War numbers, and I do believe bad or not, Justice League will kill Ragnarok's legs. Still I see Ragnarok doing more than any Phase 1 or 2 movie without Tony Stark.


On topic of Cap, I'm curious if Civil War actually grew the Captain America brand at all, and if a future Cap 4 sees any returning customers who saw Civil War but didn't see Winter Soldier.

Maybe this can expand Cap into a 300 M domestic/ 600 M foreign brand?

You might be right about JL killing Thor's legs, but there are a LOT of unknowns leading up to it. BvS might have killed JL's legs for all we know. I see what you are saying about Cap and don't think you are wrong. I do, however, still think that Thor is the more interesting character WW. Captain America doesn't necessarily play that well in the non-US market. Thor definitely has a leg up in the OS market IF they can make a really compelling Thor movie. Hoping the next one up is the one.

 

[JOE]

I think Homecoming is a lock for BvS numbers, not a billion though.