Nah, I think some people are being realistic, managing expectations reasonably. If Ragnorak garners positive reviews and is genuinely a great movie, we could land between $850 to $900 but anyone looking at a $Billion can forget it.
I think 2 years ago, you'd be wrong, but I really feel like Ruffahulk has cooled down a bit. I think a Phase 2 Hulk movie could've done upwards to $1 B. People were much more receptive to him coming out of Avengers than they were to Cap and Thor. Post AoU though, he feels like just another non-Downey Avenger.
I think with Thor: The Dark World as a base, China will add an extra $50 Million off the bat, now that the MCU is a guaranteed $100 M a picture a franchise in the Middle Kingdom, compared to Thor: The Dark World's $55 M. That leaves us with a base of $700 M. I think Hulk will bump it 10-15%, and great reviews can bump it 10-15%, for a range of $770 M-910 M.
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 will open to roughly $130 M domestic. The superior first week of May date and brand familiarity will allow it to crush the first film's OW. After that, it will hinge on Word of Mouth. A mediocre film will die right around the $292 M mark, while a GoTG 2 with great WoM (read A+ cinescore) might do up to $442 M.
Foreign numbers will show definite growth. The "good but not great" reception that met Age of Ultron resulted in that bump only being 5.5%. Iron Man 2 saw closer to a 17% bump, with similar review drop off. Given it's much harder to get 17% growth in the 800-900 M foreign range than in the 400-500 M foreign range, I feel comfortable saying an above average GoTG2 will recieve roughly a 17% bump foreign, while a great sequel could double that, giving the film a $514-589 M foreign range. This would result in Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 charting somewhere between $806 M-1.031 B.
Lastly, we have Spider-Man: Homecoming. Spider-Man is trending downward, so I'm going to lop off another $25 M domestic and say the floor for Spider-Man: Homecoming is $175 M Domestic. No July release since The Dark Knight Rises has broken $400 M domestic, and only one Spider-Man film has broken that number. The highest grossing movie without Iron Man as a featured character is Guardians of the Galaxy, which did $333 M. Given Spider-Man is still Marvel's historic flagship character, I'm going to put the cap on the film at $360 M domestic.
The good news for the franchise is that no Spider-Man movie, no matter how poor, has ever grossed less than an adjusted $500 M domestic, and most have grossed more than that. I'll put $500 M as the floor. Spider-Man seems oddly critic proof internationally. Solo super hero performances are kind of hard to pin down outside of the US so, I'll arbitrarily put nu Spider-Man's foreign ceiling at $690 M, which would be Spider-Man 3's performance adjusted for ten years of inflation.
So, we're looking at $675 M-1.05 B Worldwide for an MCU pure Spider-Man film. The thing is, this is an MCU film, so we know it won't be "pure." Iron Man and The other Avengers present in Captain America: Civil War, gave the previous film (what will likely be) a 67% foreign jump, and a 60% domestic jump. Unfortunately (from a box office perspective) I don't see this film being an Avengers movie in Spider-Man clothing. Thus I see the Avengers boost mostly only fighting the incredibly competitive frame it's released in.
So if we average the highs in lows of my somewhat arbitrary figures, I'd get:
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2: $918.5
Spider-Man: Homecoming: $863 M
Thor: Ragnarok: $840 M
I feel most confident in my Guardians number, as that film has the least X-factor, and the least confident in my Spider-Man: Homecoming number as that film has a million variables.
