Captain America 3: Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 2

Discussion in 'Captain America: Civil War' started by Thread Manager, May 11, 2016.

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  1. spiderman2 Registered

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    A billion is not what it used to be now with 3d, inflation and OS continuing to expand. Now 1.3 billion is more like what 1 billion used to be. Now you are having multiple movies making a billion ever year. I don't think Homecoming is going to make a billion. To much damage was caused by spider man 3 and by amazing spider man 1 and 2 and being a second reboot is going to turn some people off. I think homecoming has got to earn peoples trust back by being a good movie. If it does end up being good then the sequel is going to explode and is going to make well over a billion. If we had never had a reboot spiderman would easily be a billion dollar movie considering that the first 3 spiderman movies are all right at or around a billion if you just had 3d tickets and that doesn't include inflation or having a bigger OS market then you had back then. Heck with those things with out a reboot spiderman would be a lock for like 1.5 billion by now.
     
  2. Iceman Daffy Duck Vs The Joker

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    Probably yeah. A lot depends on exactly how well received it is of course but that's where I'm thinking is realistic right now knowing hardly anything about the film.
     
  3. InCali I got a pUpgrade!

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    Yeah. Prolly true. I think the last SM movie gave the franchise a little bit of a groin shot. If it's great, it could do 1B. I think Holland was really good in CW.
     
  4. spiderman2 Registered

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    It is going to be interesting to see how much this movie has left after this weekend. This is going to be weekend 5 and it is said that after weekend 5 most movies have made about 90% of its money already and considering we also have TMNT out of the shadows coming out this weekend I could see this movie maybe being even higher like 93% done or something. The first TMNT made 492 million and I am see less negativity leading up to out of the shadows then the first one. So I could see out of the shadows maybe making a little more like 550 million or something.
     
  5. InCali I got a pUpgrade!

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    Well, I suspect it's different for big blockbusters, but say that coming out of week 4 (like today), that it has made 90% of the money it's going to make DOM (it's at 377M as of yesterday), then it would end up around 420M. If it's made 93%, then it would end up between 405 and 406M.
     
  6. spiderman2 Registered

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    How are its OS numbers looking? Like what is the minimum it has left OS? If it does like the worst kind of numbers OS and USA what would its WW numbers look like? Its at 377 million DOM after yesterday. So what should it be at after sunday going into Monday june 6?
     
  7. Zant Registered

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    I think Homecoming will be lucky to make BVS numbers with its release date. Despicable me before and Planet of the Apes after. I think Spidey and Guardian should switch dates. I feel Guardians can handle the competition better.
     
  8. JB33 The Eternal Deviant

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    Too late in the game for that. Guardians comes out less than a year from now and shooting started awhile ago. Homecoming would have, likewise, had to begin shooting awhile ago as well to be ready for that date.
     
  9. Johnny-Oh "You got heart, kid"

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    I think they will spend a lot less in Homecoming considering its supposed to be a smaller scale movie, so $700-800M would be great.
     
  10. Zant Registered

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    Oh yeah for sure. Tom Rothman is at Sony now. Don't expect Amazing Spiderman 2 type budget, unless RDJ wants more screen time.
     
  11. KangConquers Purple Kang, Purple Kang

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    I actually see all three MCU movies next year playing safely in the BvS range, but lacking the oomph for a Billion.
     
  12. marcvader Lurker #1

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    Same here.
     
  13. LucDisfilm19 Registered

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    $20M 4-day Memorial Day Weekend for Civil War. Got it right. Also, I think Spider-Man: Homecoming will make a billion because:

    A) People now love Spider-Man again since they say Tom Holland is the best one yet and know that he's part of the Avengers world, people are now more excited and savvy to see his new films.

    B) Tony Stark will help with this movie's box office, especially since according to The Wrap, we'll see him in the iconic Iron Man armor in the movie: https://www.thewrap.com/robert-downey-jr-to-bring-iron-man-to-spider-man-homecoming/

    C) And, most importantly, Sony made this deal with Disney because they needed that billion dollar Spider-Man movie, and with RDJ and the best Spider-Man yet in one movie together, they may just get it.
     
  14. SamWinchester Registered

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    Yeah I don't see any MCU movie in 2017 making a billion or more. I think Guardians has the best potential followed by Spiderman and then Thor. If Guardians is really good and have a high RT score I could see it making $900 million worldwide. I think Spidey if it's good probably around the same range $800-900 and Ragnarok 700-800 million world wide
     
  15. StormC Custom User Title?

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    GOTG2 is going to be tough because it'll honestly have to be amazing to match or surpass the reception/BO for the original. There would be no shame in it performing for less, either; Spider-Man 2 got better reviews than 1, but less box office.
     
  16. JB33 The Eternal Deviant

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    Good call. It was almost a $20M 4 day weekend precisely ($20,004,508).

    Domestic: $377,480,457
    Foreign: $733,100,000
    Worldwide: $1,110,580,457


    It's now the 14th highest grossing film of all time after passing The Dark Knight Rises, Transformers: Age of Extinction and Skyfall over the weekend. By the end of next season, it should jump ahead of The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King and Transformers: Dark of the Moon for 12th all time.

    EDIT: Woops, meant to quote LucDisfilm19.
     
    #916 JB33, May 31, 2016
    Last edited: Jun 1, 2016
  17. LucDisfilm19 Registered

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    I still Guardians 2 will make a billion, especially now that Alice 2 bombed hardly. Pirates 5 may do the same come next Memorial Day Weekend in 2017, now that Johnny Depo has turned his own name into box office poison.
     
  18. metaphysician Not a Side-Kick

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    Of course, they will also be vastly more successful, because their budgets won't be nearly as insane. I doubt any of them will go above 200M.
     
  19. Ctfxcwatcher Registered

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    CAPTAIN AMERICA: CIVIL WAR took in $1.548M on Tuesday brining its North American total to $379.029M to date. #CaptainAmerica #CivilWar
     
  20. JB33 The Eternal Deviant

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    Yep. Tomorrow it will reach the $380M domestic mark.

    Domestic: $379,029,062
    Foreign: $733,100,000
    Worldwide: $1,112,129,062
     
  21. Themanofbat Never Mind the Buttocks...

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    Man, I'm thinking everybody is underestimating Thor... especially if the Hulk gets to kick lots of major ass... people love that stuff... good story with Thor & the Hulk... might equate to 1 billion.

    Just my opinion. :yay:
     
  22. Chesterfield Registered

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    Nah, I think some people are being realistic, managing expectations reasonably. If Ragnorak garners positive reviews and is genuinely a great movie, we could land between $850 to $900 but anyone looking at a $Billion can forget it.
     
  23. KangConquers Purple Kang, Purple Kang

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    I think 2 years ago, you'd be wrong, but I really feel like Ruffahulk has cooled down a bit. I think a Phase 2 Hulk movie could've done upwards to $1 B. People were much more receptive to him coming out of Avengers than they were to Cap and Thor. Post AoU though, he feels like just another non-Downey Avenger.

    I think with Thor: The Dark World as a base, China will add an extra $50 Million off the bat, now that the MCU is a guaranteed $100 M a picture a franchise in the Middle Kingdom, compared to Thor: The Dark World's $55 M. That leaves us with a base of $700 M. I think Hulk will bump it 10-15%, and great reviews can bump it 10-15%, for a range of $770 M-910 M.


    Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 will open to roughly $130 M domestic. The superior first week of May date and brand familiarity will allow it to crush the first film's OW. After that, it will hinge on Word of Mouth. A mediocre film will die right around the $292 M mark, while a GoTG 2 with great WoM (read A+ cinescore) might do up to $442 M.

    Foreign numbers will show definite growth. The "good but not great" reception that met Age of Ultron resulted in that bump only being 5.5%. Iron Man 2 saw closer to a 17% bump, with similar review drop off. Given it's much harder to get 17% growth in the 800-900 M foreign range than in the 400-500 M foreign range, I feel comfortable saying an above average GoTG2 will recieve roughly a 17% bump foreign, while a great sequel could double that, giving the film a $514-589 M foreign range. This would result in Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 charting somewhere between $806 M-1.031 B.

    Lastly, we have Spider-Man: Homecoming. Spider-Man is trending downward, so I'm going to lop off another $25 M domestic and say the floor for Spider-Man: Homecoming is $175 M Domestic. No July release since The Dark Knight Rises has broken $400 M domestic, and only one Spider-Man film has broken that number. The highest grossing movie without Iron Man as a featured character is Guardians of the Galaxy, which did $333 M. Given Spider-Man is still Marvel's historic flagship character, I'm going to put the cap on the film at $360 M domestic.

    The good news for the franchise is that no Spider-Man movie, no matter how poor, has ever grossed less than an adjusted $500 M domestic, and most have grossed more than that. I'll put $500 M as the floor. Spider-Man seems oddly critic proof internationally. Solo super hero performances are kind of hard to pin down outside of the US so, I'll arbitrarily put nu Spider-Man's foreign ceiling at $690 M, which would be Spider-Man 3's performance adjusted for ten years of inflation.

    So, we're looking at $675 M-1.05 B Worldwide for an MCU pure Spider-Man film. The thing is, this is an MCU film, so we know it won't be "pure." Iron Man and The other Avengers present in Captain America: Civil War, gave the previous film (what will likely be) a 67% foreign jump, and a 60% domestic jump. Unfortunately (from a box office perspective) I don't see this film being an Avengers movie in Spider-Man clothing. Thus I see the Avengers boost mostly only fighting the incredibly competitive frame it's released in.


    So if we average the highs in lows of my somewhat arbitrary figures, I'd get:

    Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2: $918.5
    Spider-Man: Homecoming: $863 M
    Thor: Ragnarok: $840 M


    I feel most confident in my Guardians number, as that film has the least X-factor, and the least confident in my Spider-Man: Homecoming number as that film has a million variables.
     
    #923 KangConquers, Jun 1, 2016
    Last edited: Jun 1, 2016
  24. Vincanws Registered

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    I'll go with $850 to $900 would be AMAZING! Marvel/Disney would be over the moon at that.
     
  25. Spiderine Sho nuff

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    Im going anywhere in the 800 to 900 mil range. Good for a November film.
     
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