Civil War Captain America 3: Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 2

[kedrell]

Moretz needs the success. She's damn talented but has been in dud after dud lately. Hopefully this rebounds her career. Great as Hit Girl was, it shouldn't be downhill from a role she had when she was 13. That'd be a waste.

 

[Tilapia]

Kids need tough love these days. But yeah, hopefully her acting career doesn't the way of Lohan and others and she ends up like her character in the movie in reality.

She was good in that Vampire remake though, Let the Right One in or something, with the kid playing Nightcrawler.

 

[kedrell]

She was fantastic in 2 great small films in a row, Kick-Ass! and Let Me In. I had higher hopes for her after those 2. Hopefully she can still reach her potential, which is still high. I mean I could conceivably see her one day having an Oscar on her mantle as long as she starts making the right career choices.

 

[Pickle-El]

So BvS drops 69% in week 2 with no competition, awful reviews.

CW drops 60% in week 2 with no competition, exceptional reviews.

Audiences just not enjoying watching heroes beat each other up as much as fanboys?

 

[The Caped Knight]

Civil War is doing great at the theaters the general audience response has been strong and overall positive.

 

[hafizbat]

A lot of people thought with the strong reviews that this should hit numbers like the Avengers.

I'm starting to think strong reviews don't have as much impact on BO as bad reviews. You see stuff like Jurassic World and F&F and Avatar do so well with good but not great reviews.

 

[Bruce Malone]

So BvS drops 69% in week 2 with no competition, awful reviews.

CW drops 60% in week 2 with no competition, exceptional reviews.

Audiences just not enjoying watching heroes beat each other up as much as fanboys?

A drop from about 50-60% after a big OW is acceptable. So CW's drop was within the acceptable realm, BvS was just beyond that and it further tumbled the following weeks.

Also the fact is yes the big MCU films have become increasingly front loaded. The fans will come out but they are no longer phenomenas like Avengers 1.

 

[spiderman2]

So movie is at about 940m now WW. So what do you guys think is the max this makes and the worst it makes? I am going to say at best it does other 200m USA and like another 400 OS for 600m more to get it up to 1.54billion. Worst another 100m USA and 200m OS for 300m more to get it up to 1.24billion. I am going to predict that it does in-between for 450m more to get it up to 1.39 billion.

 

[spiderman2]

So BvS drops 69% in week 2 with no competition, awful reviews.

CW drops 60% in week 2 with no competition, exceptional reviews.

Audiences just not enjoying watching heroes beat each other up as much as fanboys?

Yeah sucks I thought it would be more like a 50-55% drop maybe we will have a really small drop next week?

 

[Chesterfield]

This movie will not make $1.5Billion. You're dreaming.

 

[johnboy3434]

As of today, the film has most likely made a profit. Rejoice!

 

[writer0327]

Perfectly acceptable 60% drop, need to wait for the actual numbers, could be a bit better or worse, but overall that is about right.

School is out in many places next couple of weeks and then Mem. Day is just two weekends away. I'm thinking another $500M WW over the next month before Finding Dory comes in and clobbers everyone sounds about right.

 

[spiderman2]

This movie will not make $1.5Billion. You're dreaming.

I said at best and it looks like it is having better legs OS then it is in the USA. I mean it has been out OS in most places longer then it has been out in the USA and yet this weekend it made more OS then it did USA.

 

[Darkraid]

Think Disney would be happy if it goes over 1B.

 

[Mysteryman]

Do we have any tracking estimates for Angry Birds or Neighbors 2?

 

[TheRoman]

Pretty cool article below that starts off with the latest box office figures. Gotta admit $10 billion in ten years is a pretty solid track record for Marvel to say the least.

https://medium.com/@muricamedia/is-...g-drones-in-civil-war-eff57329a6d3#.2bwjkwavk

 

[Maximum_Maximus]

As good as CW is, perhaps the audience has seen too many superhero movies this year and aren't as enthusiastic as they could've been. With each movie trying to raise the bar and what not, even the epic airport scene may not be enough these days to guarantee great business. Now granted CW will do amazing BO numbers but since it's got better critical and audience reception than AoU I'd think the movie would surpass it. Maybe Russo Brothers will take note and make the IW movies even better.

 

[kedrell]

Pretty cool article below that starts off with the latest box office figures. Gotta admit $10 billion in ten years is a pretty solid track record for Marvel to say the least.

https://medium.com/@muricamedia/is-...g-drones-in-civil-war-eff57329a6d3#.2bwjkwavk

8 years.

 

[Angryfantasyfan]

Now granted CW will do amazing BO numbers but since it's got better critical and audience reception than AoU I'd think the movie would surpass it.

After seeing the film, it was most definitely more of a Winter Soldier sequel than an Avengers one. People who didn't see TWS($714.4m) have no emotional investment in Bucky and his friendship with Cap.

 

[warcam]

60% drop with no competition is not ideal, no matter how you try to spin it. I enjoyed it for what it was, and it had some great scenes, but I left the theater feeling the same way I did after AoU: full but not satisfied. Avengers, TWS, GOTG, and even Ant-man gave me a more satisfying feeling. Even TDK, I had to go back the next day because I couldn't stop thinking about it. In the end, this movie was a cop out that merely set up BP, SM:H, et al. Maybe the GA is starting to catch on or are just getting burned out with these characters.

 

[gerrym51]

I said at best and it looks like it is having better legs OS then it is in the USA. I mean it has been out OS in most places longer then it has been out in the USA and yet this weekend it made more OS then it did USA.

6 overseas markets including the largest - china-opened on same day as North America.

Most of this overseas total was from them

 

[Lilbaz]

Moretz needs the success. She's damn talented but has been in dud after dud lately. Hopefully this rebounds her career. Great as Hit Girl was, it shouldn't be downhill from a role she had when she was 13. That'd be a waste.

Equalizer was a good film.

 

[Bucky]

60% drop with no competition is not ideal, no matter how you try to spin it.

59%, actually - and considering it's the eighth-largest second weekend of all-time, and is on a similar track as Iron Man 3 and Avengers: Age of Ultron, I'd say it's pretty ideal.

 

[Kanon]

7th place in fastest to 250M

1-Star Wars: The Force Awakens (4 days to $288,076,417)
2-Jurassic World (5 days to $258,493,605)
3-Marvel's The Avengers (6 days to $257,627,807)
4-The Dark Knight (8 days to $261,847,503)
5-Avengers: Age of Ultron (8 days to $256,887,830)
6-The Hunger Games: Catching Fire (8 days to $253,686,504)
7-Captain America: Civil War (9 days to $274,849,078)
8-The Dark Knight Rises (9 days to $267,458,321)
9- Iron Man 3 (9 days to $264,188,043)
10 Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 (9 days to $258,934,716)

 

[Hero_of_Time98]

7th place in fastest to 250M

1-Star Wars: The Force Awakens (4 days to $288,076,417)
2-Jurassic World (5 days to $258,493,605)
3-Marvel's The Avengers (6 days to $257,627,807)
4-The Dark Knight (8 days to $261,847,503)
5-Avengers: Age of Ultron (8 days to $256,887,830)
6-The Hunger Games: Catching Fire (8 days to $253,686,504)
7-Captain America: Civil War (9 days to $274,849,078)
8-The Dark Knight Rises (9 days to $267,458,321)
9- Iron Man 3 (9 days to $264,188,043)
10 Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 (9 days to $258,934,716)

Half of those movies are Disney owed. I bet the Mouse House is very pleased!