Civil War Captain America 3: Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 2

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my opinion is still 1.1. i will see thru Sunday and then maybe i'll change my opinion.
 
gerrym51 said:
my opinion is still 1.1. i will see thru Sunday and then maybe i'll change my opinion.
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I'm pretty sure you'll change your opinion. It'll be around $1.07 or $1.08B by the end of Sunday.
 
So with Civil War lining up roughly with Iron Man 3, is it safe to say the value of the Avengers name is about a $200 M Worldwide boost?
 
KangConquers said:
So with Civil War lining up roughly with Iron Man 3, is it safe to say the value of the Avengers name is about a $200 M Worldwide boost?
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Something like that. It's more like the Thor + Hulk + planet-destroying villain threat value-add, considering CW features most of the Avengers. The Spidey premium is more felt in the OS number it seems.
 
gerrym51 said:
tuesdays are discount days in Canada. Most movies spike on tuesdays because of it.
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I meant in relation to AoU and IM3. I'm aware that Tuesdays always get a bump in general. But CW saw a bigger bump than they did.
 
Yeah TWS came out in April. So it's not necessarily comparable.
 
Kanon said:
41M is very, very optimistic.
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I agree. If it makes $41m(a -43.5% drop, far better than the comparable 50% drops of AoU & IM3) then it has a chance, if ever so slight, to beat AoU's DOM number(possibly a $460m finish right on the nose). I could be the signal of older crowds who don't rush out to see a movie on OW or even it's 2nd weekend finally taking the film in as it does have more appeal story-wise to older people. As for me, I've seen it 4 times and the last one this past Sunday was in IMAX 2-D and not really all that many people were in there. I guess most aren't willing to pay double price for essentially the same product. But that'll about do it for me. This weekend I'll be watching The Nice Guys instead.
 
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kedrell said:
I agree. If it makes $41m(a -43.5% drop, far better than the comparable 50% drops of AoU & IM3) then it has a chance, if ever so slight, to beat AoU's DOM number(possibly a $460m finish right on the nose). I could be the signal of older crowds who don't rush out to see a movie on OW or even it's 2nd weekend finally taking the film in as it does have more appeal story-wise to older people.
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It would take Avengers 2012 level legs to achieve 460M at this point... It needs to be on top this weekend, and make like 30M+ next weekend despite X-Men...

I feel CW is a better movie, but also not feel-good one, and divisive, so I don't see people going to theathers at that level. I think 400M is a good goal: not a lock by any means, but also realistic. Optimistic projections say 420-430, but it depends on how it handles heavy competition like Angry Birds and X-Men (beating Angry Birds would go a long way)
 
It's on pace to make a billion WW after Friday's total is added up
 
I follow Box office theory to. They are usually more accurate than most of these so called expert box office sites. Some users on that site have called some great box office runs that many didn't see coming. I remember a user made a prediction that Jurassic World would breakout and do over 350+ domestic & someone else made a prediction that Deadpool would be 20th Century Fox highest grossing X-men film.
 
Kanon said:
It would take Avengers 2012 level legs to achieve 460M at this point... It needs to be on top this weekend, and make like 30M+ next weekend despite X-Men...

I feel CW is a better movie, but also not feel-good one, and divisive, so I don't see people going to theaters at that level. I think 400M is a good goal: not a lock by any means, but also realistic. Optimistic projections say 420-430, but it depends on how it handles heavy competition like Angry Birds and X-Men (beating Angry Birds would go a long way)
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$400m was virtually a lock after the opening weekend. Moreso now that it's outpacing IM3 which opened smaller and had less per day ever since yet still made $409m itself. I don't see $420-$430 as optimistic in any way. That's just realistic as I read the data. $460m is optimistic. You're right about the lack of feel-good to the film but that same thing is also what makes it more adult and thus could lead to more mature audiences giving this some late legs. Older audiences tend not to rush out to watch whatever's big or hot right when it first comes out. They're content to wait a bit. Anyway back to the legs needed to get to $460m. If it indeed has a $41m 3rd weekend(which I highly doubt) then it wouldn't need Avengers1 legs to reach that number. If it got that 3rd weekend total the entire DOM total would likely be around $355m leaving only $105m left to reach that goal. That's a 2.56X multiplier off the 3rd weekend, not the 3X plus that TA1 had. The 9th X-Men series film will have some effect and will likely put the kaibosh on that happening but stranger things have happened even just this year(Deadpool's success, for example).
 
Stark Bauer said:
It's on pace to make a billion WW after Friday's total is added up
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It should be right on the cusp of $1b after Thursday is done. It might in fact actually cross that threshold without Friday. It has less than $29m to go.

Edit: Looks like it came up $8-9m shy of it on Thursday. Friday it is then.
 
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$10 million WW Wednesday per Gitesh. Cume now $981.9 million (310.5 dom/671.4 OS). Now the top-grossing film of 2016.
 
If CW can have a drop of less than 50%, or greater than 36M that would be good news. Let alone staying at number 1.
 
Still remains ahead of IM3 on Wednesday it seems.
 
Confirmed: $3.90M on Wednesday
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/

Domestic: $310,545,889
Foreign: $671,400,000
Worldwide: $981,945,889


Looks like I'll come up a bit short in my prediction that it would be at $993M worldwide going into the weekend. It'll probably hover around $991M to $991.5M.
 
MCU's no.4 billion dollar grosser coming right up!
 
Kanon said:
It would take Avengers 2012 level legs to achieve 460M at this point... It needs to be on top this weekend, and make like 30M+ next weekend despite X-Men...

I feel CW is a better movie, but also not feel-good one, and divisive, so I don't see people going to theathers at that level. I think 400M is a good goal: not a lock by any means, but also realistic. Optimistic projections say 420-430, but it depends on how it handles heavy competition like Angry Birds and X-Men (beating Angry Birds would go a long way)
Click to expand...

$400 M is still happening if we were going into this assuming a pure IM3 level performance, it would wind up at $425 M. Angry Birds and Neighbors 3 aren't going to draw the combined $93 M that Gatsby and Star Trek: Enter Darkness did when Iron Man 3 entered it's 3rd weekend, nor the $115 M total that Pitch Perfect and Mad Max drew on AoU's 3rd weekend.

If Civil War makes it to Memorial Day Weekend at #1, I think we could still see >$430 M.
 
Kanon said:
It would take Avengers 2012 level legs to achieve 460M at this point... It needs to be on top this weekend, and make like 30M+ next weekend despite X-Men...

I feel CW is a better movie, but also not feel-good one, and divisive, so I don't see people going to theathers at that level. I think 400M is a good goal: not a lock by any means, but also realistic. Optimistic projections say 420-430, but it depends on how it handles heavy competition like Angry Birds and X-Men (beating Angry Birds would go a long way)
Click to expand...
I feel like we've actually hit the box office ceiling for MCU films. The first Avengers was a novelty and you didn't need to watch that many movies to know what was going on. This one, you had to have watched at least 3 other movies to have a prayer of truly understanding and enjoying what was going on. The further along the MCU goes, the more the audience niche is going to be solidified and less chance of a breakout at the box office. (I don't think Disney/Marvel is complaining, but the BO game is going to be a lot more predictable and boring. :oldrazz: )

CW did everything right and it's still pretty frontloaded. I think it's just the nature of what it is (a Phase 3 MCU film), as well as the market now. To have a prayer of seeing this in real 2D IMAX, I had to go last night - my third viewing in a week and a half. Usually I like to space my viewings out more, but i had no choice. Alice Through the Looking Glass is going to take all of the 2D IMAX screens this weekend.

I remember when TDK was in IMAX for months and it was amazing. Boy, those were the good old days, huh? :funny: By the by, there were just as many people at the very last IMAX showing for TDK 5 months after release, as there was for CW last night after just 3 weeks.
 
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